US midterm elections held during a new president’s first term have long functioned as a de facto public referendum on the sitting administration’s performance. The 2026 cycle is no different, but for Arab and Muslim American communities across the country, the stakes are uniquely high. Under the current Trump administration, policies targeting refugee and immigrant communities, crackdowns on criticism of Israel and pro-Palestine advocacy, and open anti-Muslim rhetoric have dominated national headlines and fundamentally altered daily life for many minority groups.
Beyond domestic policy shifts, Trump’s joint pressure campaign against Iran alongside Israel has destabilized the entire Middle East region and sent domestic fuel prices soaring for American households. Public approval of Trump’s first two years in office currently sits at just 30%, according to recent data released last week by the Pew Research Center.
For context, every two years, all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and roughly one-third of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate are up for election. House members serve two-year terms, while senators hold six-year terms, with two seats allocated to every state regardless of size or population; unlike many elected offices across the globe, there are no federal term limits for members of Congress. Heading into the November 3 vote, Democrats are looking to flip control of key chambers, starting with the Senate, where Republicans currently hold a 53-47 advantage, with the Republican vice president holding the tie-breaking power. Five high-stakes Senate contests will decide whether Democrats can flip the chamber.
The most closely watched race is in the critical swing state of Michigan, where Democrat Abdul el-Sayed is facing off against Republican former congressman and ex-FBI agent Mike Rogers. Though el-Sayed has never held elected office, he has emerged as a formidable media presence, even earning praise for his rhetorical skill from hosts at conservative outlet Fox News. Rogers, who has earned the endorsement of Trump and millions in backing from pro-Israel lobbying groups (nearly $6 million to date, per Aipac Tracker), has faced extraordinary controversy after Trump publicly used a false name to refer to el-Sayed, labeling the candidate a “radical jihadist” at a Tennessee campaign rally.
A victory for el-Sayed would make history: he would become the first Muslim senator in U.S. history. Unlike New York City’s first Muslim mayor Zohran Mamdani, el-Sayed is a U.S.-born citizen, making him constitutionally eligible to run for president in future cycles. Latest polling currently shows el-Sayed holding a narrow lead in the race.
In deep-red Texas, Trump-backed incumbent Ken Paxton, who has faced persistent fraud indictments and a corruption impeachment that never resulted in conviction, is locked in a tight race against Democrat James Talarico. As Texas attorney general, Paxton has led efforts to criminalize the nation’s largest Muslim civil rights organization, but Talarico has gained cross-appeal by emphasizing his personal Christian faith, backing Israel while calling for conditional U.S. military aid to the country.
In Maine, three-term Republican incumbent Susan Collins faces a serious threat of being unseated by Democratic challenger Troy Jackson, who has openly stated that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza and called for an end to U.S. military aid to the country. In Iowa, the race leans slightly Republican but is considered a toss-up: Democratic candidate Josh Turek, a state legislator and wheelchair basketball player, is challenging Republican incumbent Congresswoman and former broadcast journalist Ashley Hinson. Hinson has positioned herself as a moderate but refused to support a congressional vote requiring Trump to seek congressional authorization for military action against Iran, and has pledged unwavering support for Israel. Turek, by contrast, has stated that no U.S. taxpayer dollars should flow to any country accused of violating international law. Finally, in Ohio, a special election is being held to fill the final two years of Vice President JD Vance’s unexpired Senate term. Three-term Democratic former senator Sherrod Brown currently holds a small lead over Republican incumbent Jon Husted, though the race remains too close to call; Brown has retained his longstanding full backing of Israel despite shifting unfavorable views of the country among Democratic voters, and counts pro-Israel, pro-peace group J Street as his top organizational donor.
In the House, Republicans currently hold a narrow 218-214 majority, with one independent member and two vacant seats. Democrats need to flip just three to five seats to gain working control of the chamber. Three Republican incumbents hold districts that Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris won in 2024, and New York 17th District Congressman Mike Lawler is considered the most vulnerable. Reports indicate Trump recently invited anti-Zionist Jewish leaders from the district to the White House in a bid to court their support for the incumbent.
Nationwide, roughly 36 House seats are rated as toss-ups by pollsters, with one-third of these competitive seats located in the deeply conservative South, held by incumbent Republicans stretching from Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida west to Texas and Arizona. Currently, there are five Muslim members of the House, all Democrats: Andre Carson (Indiana, 2008), Rashida Tlaib (Michigan, 2018), Ilhan Omar (Minnesota, 2018), Lateefah Simon (California, 2024), and Aisha Wahab (California, elected in a special election earlier this year and running for a full term this cycle).
This cycle, however, has seen an unprecedented incoming wave of progressive candidates, many of whom have already locked in their general election wins after defeating incumbents in state primaries in deep-blue districts. Most of these candidates are political newcomers who have adopted the winning platform that fueled Zohran Mamdani’s 2025 New York mayoral win: a focus on working-class economic affordability and explicit support for Palestinian rights. Nearly all have also refused to accept corporate campaign donations, a risky decision in a U.S. political system where campaign fundraising often decides election outcomes.
One standout candidate is Adam Hamawy, an Egyptian-American surgeon who gained national attention for his high-profile 2024 medical mission to Gaza. Hamawy handily won the Democratic primary in New Jersey’s 12th District in June and is widely expected to win the general election easily. Neighboring in New York, three progressive, vocal critics of Israeli policy are also projected to win easily: Darializa Avila Chevalier, a democratic socialist who pulled off a shocking primary upset against an incumbent in New York’s 13th District earlier this year; state legislator Claire Valdez, another democratic socialist who won the primary for the 7th District; and Brad Lander, a close Mamdani ally and former New York City comptroller who won the 10th District primary. The Democratic Socialists of America, an organizing group that endorses aligned candidates based on membership input and platform alignment, has backed many of these newcomers.
In Pennsylvania’s 3rd District, progressive state legislator Chris Rabb is heavily favored to win the House seat, while in Colorado’s 1st District, 29-year-old Ethiopian immigrant Melat Kiros, who unseated an incumbent who had held the seat since before Kiros was born, is also projected to coast to a general election win.