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  • Nephew of PA vice president arrested over Gaza smuggling with Israeli soldiers

    Nephew of PA vice president arrested over Gaza smuggling with Israeli soldiers

    In a development that has cast new light on systemic illicit trafficking into the blockaded Gaza Strip, Israel’s internal security service Shin Bet has taken into custody Jamal al-Sheikh, the nephew of newly appointed Palestinian Authority Vice President Hussein al-Sheikh, according to an exclusive report from Israeli outlet i24News published Monday.

    The arrest, which occurred in February of this year, stems from allegations that Jamal al-Sheikh, a West Bank resident, orchestrated a cross-border smuggling ring between February 2025 and February 2026, with direct assistance from active-duty Israeli soldiers, a Egyptian national, and Gaza-based merchant partners. Over the course of 12 months, the network successfully moved five separate shipments of contraband into the Palestinian enclave, before a failed sixth attempt in February led to the operation being unraveled and Jamal’s detention.

    Court documents and security briefings cited in the report outline that the first shipment consisted of 10 pallets of confectionery, but subsequent shipments included items classified by Israel as “dual-use” goods—materials that can serve both civilian and military purposes, which are subject to a total ban on entry into Gaza. Other illicit goods trafficked included solar panels, vehicle batteries, tobacco products, electric bicycles, and mobile phones, all of which command exorbitant black market premiums in Gaza amid the long-standing Israeli blockade that has restricted the flow of most basic and commercial goods.

    The final intercepted shipment, which was seized by Shin Bet before it could cross into Gaza, was the network’s largest to date: a single truck carrying more than 500 pallets of cigarettes and 500 iPhone devices, with a total estimated black market value of 200 million Israeli shekels, or roughly $66 million. The report notes that Jamal al-Sheikh expressed hesitation about moving the high-value final shipment over fears of being caught, but a Gaza-based partner in the ring reassured him that Israeli military connections would guarantee safe passage. The merchant claimed his own son, an active Israeli soldier, would facilitate the smuggling. The identities of all Israeli soldiers implicated in the ring remain sealed under a court gag order, per i24News.

    This arrest is far from an isolated incident. It is the latest in a string of high-profile revelations over recent months exposing widespread complicity by Israeli security and commercial actors in illicit profiteering from Gaza’s restricted economy. Just one month prior to Jamal al-Sheikh’s arrest, Bezalel Zini, brother of current Shin Bet chief David Zini, was formally indicted on charges of aiding unauthorized smuggling after being accused of moving millions of shekels worth of contraband cigarettes and other goods into the enclave.

    Beyond shadowy smuggling rings, official commercial activity has also drawn scrutiny for exploiting Israel’s monopoly on entry into Gaza. In June, Israeli news outlet Ynet reported that one major Israeli supermarket chain saw a more than 25% jump in first-quarter 2026 sales, driven almost entirely by sales of goods to Gaza. The chain recorded 152 million shekels ($50 million) in additional profits over the period, 99 million shekels ($33 million) of which came directly from Gaza sales. Israel currently grants exclusive commercial entry approval to just a small handful of Israeli companies, creating a state-sanctioned monopoly that allows for inflated pricing.

    Israel’s strict control over all goods entering and exiting Gaza forms the core of its decades-long siege campaign, a policy that humanitarian organizations worldwide have repeatedly condemned as using mass starvation as a weapon of war against the enclave’s 2.2 million residents. While a ceasefire agreement reached last October allowed for a temporary increase in humanitarian aid entering the territory, new UN data shows that aid flows have actually declined sharply in recent months. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported that just 41,800 pallets of aid were delivered across Gaza last month, down from 58,600 pallets delivered in January 2026.

    The ongoing restrictions have pushed Gaza’s population into an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe. OCHA data confirms that the vast majority of Gaza residents now survive on just two meals per day, with 70% of infants and young children suffering from moderate to severe food insecurity. Projections from UN agencies estimate that roughly 246,000 children under the age of 17 will suffer from acute malnutrition in 2026, with more than 31,000 of those children facing life-threatening severe acute malnutrition.

    For context, Hussein al-Sheikh, Jamal’s uncle and the PA’s recently appointed vice president, has been a leading figure in Palestinian politics for more than 20 years, and is widely tipped as the leading candidate to succeed 90-year-old PA President Mahmoud Abbas when he steps down. For decades, al-Sheikh led the PA’s Civil Affairs Commission, the body tasked with coordinating all civilian administrative matters with COGAT, the Israeli military unit that manages all Israeli government policy in the occupied Palestinian territories.

  • World Cup 2026: Fifa ‘crossed a red line’ after decision to overturn ban for US striker’s red card

    World Cup 2026: Fifa ‘crossed a red line’ after decision to overturn ban for US striker’s red card

    The global football community has been thrown into uproar after Fifa’s stunning weekend announcement that U.S. striker Folarin Balogun will be cleared to compete in the United States’ upcoming World Cup match against Belgium, defying the standard automatic one-match suspension that follows a straight red card. Balogun received his sending-off during the U.S.’s previous fixture against Bosnia and Herzegovina, a punishment that under normal tournament rules would automatically bench him for the next round.

    Historically, overturning a straight red card suspension is almost unheard of: Fifa’s official disciplinary code explicitly prohibits appeals for immediate red card dismissals, and only one similar exception has ever been recorded, dating back to 1962 when automatic suspensions were not yet codified in tournament rules. This unprecedented decision comes after days of high-level lobbying from senior U.S. officials, according to reporting from American news outlet Politico. Within minutes of Balogun’s red card being issued, White House and U.S. soccer leadership launched a coordinated push to reverse the call: Andrew Giuliani, executive director of the White House Fifa World Cup Task Force, joined by U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and senior United States Soccer Federation officials, spent four days lobbying Fifa leadership to change the ruling. Multiple reports have also confirmed that former U.S. President Donald Trump made personal phone calls directly to Fifa President Gianni Infantino to press for the suspension to be lifted.

    Fifa has defended its reversal by citing Article 27 of its disciplinary framework, a bylaw that grants the governing body broad authority to suspend any pre-existing disciplinary measures. But the move has drawn fierce condemnation from football governing bodies, current and former leaders, pundits and fans worldwide, who universally accuse Fifa of caving to political pressure and granting preferential treatment to the U.S. tournament host.

    The Belgian Football Association, whose team stands to directly lose out from the decision, issued an official statement saying it was “astonished” by the ruling, noting that it directly contradicts core provisions of the World Cup’s disciplinary code that mandate automatic one-match suspensions for red card recipients. Though Belgium was granted the right to appeal the decision on Monday, it was given only a matter of hours on the same day to submit its challenge, a timeline critics have called intentionally restrictive.

    European football governing body Uefa also released a scathing rebuke of the decision, saying Fifa had “crossed a red line.” In its official statement, Uefa emphasized that football’s integrity depends on consistent, enforceable rules, noting that the automatic one-match suspension for a red card is not a discretionary call: “When the certainty of rules is no longer guaranteed by its guardians, the integrity of the game is at stake and the credibility of a competition is undermined,” the statement read.

    Criticism has also poured in from across the football and political spheres on social media, with many figures highlighting the glaring double standard of Fifa’s decision. Former Fifa President Sepp Blatter weighed in on X, writing, “Red cards are not overturned by political phone calls. They are overturned by rules, evidence and independent bodies… Football must never become a playground for political power.” Analysts and fans have also pointed out that Fifa has previously suspended entire national federations, including Nepal’s, for government interference in football operations — a policy that appears to have been set aside for the U.S. this time.

    Many social media users have also called out perceived favoritism toward the host nation. A Reddit commentator noted that the rarity of red card reversals has long acted as a level playing field for all teams, so making an exception for the U.S. can only be interpreted as preferential treatment. Former professional footballer Yannick Bolasie drew attention to double standards across global confederations, writing, “All I’ll say is if this was AFCON and they let a man play after he got a red card, the nonsense being said would be crazy.”

    Even some American commentators and fans have acknowledged the problematic nature of the decision. Political commentator and former Obama administration spokesperson Tommy Vietor noted, “As a fan, I am obviously overjoyed that Balogun will get to play,” but added that “it will make the rest of the world feel like the tournament was rigged.”

    The controversy has also spilled over into broader political critiques of the Trump administration. One social media commentator highlighted that Trump recently attempted to eliminate birthright citizenship at the U.S. Supreme Court — the very policy that grants Balogun, born in the United States, his American citizenship and eligibility to play for the U.S. national team. Geopolitical analyst Bruno Macaes further connected the decision to broader questions of Fifa’s political ethics, referencing ongoing global criticism of Fifa’s decision to allow Israel’s football association to remain in international competition despite accusations of genocide in Gaza.

    Trump, for his part, praised Fifa’s ruling in a post on his Truth Social platform. British media personality Piers Morgan has called the incident “the biggest story, and potential scandal, of the World Cup.” Middle East Eye has reached out to both the White House and Fifa for additional comment on the reports of political lobbying and the controversial reversal.

  • Israel’s death towers: Gaza civilians killed by remote attacks during ceasefire

    Israel’s death towers: Gaza civilians killed by remote attacks during ceasefire

    In the final stretch of joyful wedding preparations for his daughter, 43-year-old Khalil al-Masri had every reason to smile. Less than two weeks before the ceremony, he traveled with his eldest son to Gaza City’s Rimal neighborhood to finalize payment and confirm the reservation for his daughter’s dream wedding dress. With that task complete, the pair stopped at a nearby confectionery to mark the happy occasion, joining two friends for a seat at an outdoor table. What came next was a senseless, sudden tragedy: a live bullet tore through Masri’s skull, leaving him unconscious as his son and friends stared on in terror.

    Rushed to Gaza’s al-Shifa Hospital for emergency care, Masri, a father of seven, succumbed to his fatal wound on June 14. His brother Mahmoud al-Masri described the jarring turn of fate in an interview with Middle East Eye. “It was a complete shock. He was very happy and laughing with his friends. He ordered a dessert, but the bullet penetrated his head before the order was served,” Mahmoud said. “The wedding was turned into a funeral.”

    Captured on the sweet shop’s entrance surveillance footage, Masri’s killing is far from an isolated incident. The deadly shooting unfolded against a backdrop of steadily escalating Israeli fire targeting Palestinian civilians across multiple regions of the Gaza Strip in recent weeks, even as the event is framed as occurring under a ceasefire agreement. While the exact source of the bullet has not been officially confirmed, Mahmoud says the gunfire originated from the east, pointing to two likely sources: an Israeli surveillance quadcopter operating in the area minutes before the shooting, or an Israeli military “lifter” – a fortified watchtower fitted with heavy machine guns – positioned roughly 1.7 kilometers away in the contested Yellow Zone.

    The Yellow Zone is an area Israel was required to withdraw from as part of the second phase of an earlier ceasefire deal, after occupying it in the agreement’s first stage. To date, Israel has refused to cede control of the territory, and now holds more than 60 percent of the entire Gaza Strip. Deployed at 23 separate locations across the eastern Gaza Yellow Zone, per data from the Palestinian Centre for Human Rights, these military lifters elevate weapons and surveillance hardware to extend visual range and enable open fire across large civilian-populated areas.

    The same day Masri was killed, at least five more Palestinians were hit by Israeli fire in another central Gaza City neighborhood. Among them was 19-year-old university student Muhammed Abu Hassira, who was walking home from the gym along al-Wehda Street when Israeli forces opened fire. Just like Masri’s case, witnesses could not confirm whether the fatal shot came from a quadcopter or a military watchtower.

    Khaled al-Tarshawi, Abu Hassira’s uncle, recounted the teen’s final moments to Middle East Eye. “Muhammed was on his way home from the gym at around 7pm, he was on al-Wehda Street when the Israeli occupation suddenly opened fire, hitting him and other pedestrians. He and four or five others collapsed to the ground,” al-Tarshawi said. “He was shot in the abdomen. People rushed to carry him and the other wounded to the hospital. He was transported on the seat of a wheelchair because there were no vehicles. Doctors tried to save him, but by the time he arrived, he had already lost a significant amount of blood.”

    Abu Hassira had just wrapped up his second semester studying engineering at a Gaza university, having earned his high school diploma and enrolled despite the ongoing conflict. “He was intelligent, patient, and always devoted to his parents. His mother was devastated when she received the news, but his father was even more heartbroken. Muhammed was his eldest and most beloved son,” al-Tarshawi said. “Muhammed survived the devastating Israeli attacks throughout the two and a half years of the genocide and refused to leave Gaza City. He refused to evacuate to the south and managed to stay alive during the worst periods of the genocide. But he was killed during the ceasefire by a quadcopter or a lifter.”

    Fatal Israeli fire has continued through all avenues of daily life in Gaza in the months following the October 2023 ceasefire agreement. In addition to watchtower sniper fire and quadcopter strikes, Israeli tanks and ground snipers deployed within the Yellow Zone have repeatedly opened fire on pedestrians and displaced families’ makeshift shelters in areas formally labeled “safe zones,” leaving dozens dead and injured over the past eight months.

    Just 24 hours after the killings of Masri and Abu Hassira, 13-year-old Amir al-Bashiti was killed by an Israeli bullet inside his family’s displaced person tent in Khan Younis, southern Gaza. His father Emad al-Bashiti said the bullet, which likely came from an Israeli tank, struck the boy just moments after he came inside for the night. “It was around midnight and he was playing with his cousins and friends outside the tent. I called on him to come in and sleep and I wish I didn’t,” Emad said. “He came in carrying his blanket and told me ‘I want to tell you what happened’. At the time, there were sounds of Israeli tanks moving and some gunfire close to the camp. I told him to sit down and go to sleep because there were shootings. He insisted on telling me the story before he went to sleep.”

    Before Amir could finish sharing his story, the explosive bullet tore through his head and exited his neck, killing him instantly in front of his entire family. “It wasn’t a normal bullet, it was an explosive one. I heard it explode after it penetrated his head,” Emad recalled. “He fell on the ground and vomited blood. I held his hand but he was unconscious. By the time I carried him and rushed outside to reach the hospital, he was already dead.” Amir and his family had been displaced from Rafah and had sought shelter in Khan Younis’ Batn al-Samin, a zone designated as safe for displaced people that now hosts tens of thousands of fleeing Palestinians.

    In recent weeks, the targeting of Palestinian civilians has expanded far beyond the contested Yellow Zone, with deadly strikes hitting even areas marked as safe under the ceasefire framework. On a single Friday in June, one Palestinian child was killed and two members of the Totah family wounded when an Israeli quadcopter dropped an explosive on the group as they collected water east of Gaza City. Another Palestinian was killed by Israeli fire the same day east of Deir al-Balah in central Gaza.

    Official data confirms the scope of the ongoing bloodshed: since the ceasefire agreement took effect in October 2024, at least 1,072 Palestinians have been killed and 3,463 more injured across the Gaza Strip. Since October 2023, Israeli attacks have killed at least 73,098 people in Gaza, with thousands more still missing and presumed dead under the rubble of destroyed buildings.

    For families like the al-Bashitis, the term “ceasefire” bears no relation to the reality on the ground. “Whoever calls this a ceasefire is overlooking what is actually happening on the ground. It is not a ceasefire, it is continued fire,” Emad al-Bashiti said.

  • Trump, Turkey and Nato: What’s at stake at the Ankara summit?

    Trump, Turkey and Nato: What’s at stake at the Ankara summit?

    A pivotal NATO summit convening this week in Ankara, Turkey, stands poised to reshape the 75-year-old transatlantic alliance’s strategic direction, as leaders gather to address a planned drawdown of United States military forces in Europe and chart a course for the bloc’s next evolution, dubbed NATO 3.0.

    US President Donald Trump is set to join alliance heads of state and government in the Turkish capital, where tensions are already expected to emerge over negotiations to shrink America’s long-standing military footprint on the continent. Ahead of the high-stakes gathering, Turkish authorities have launched a sweeping effort to spruce up Ankara: city workers have planted thousands of decorative flowers, resurfaced damaged arterial roads, and erected large fabric banners to cover aging, poorly maintained structures that line major summit routes. Starting Tuesday, the city will implement a two-day partial lockdown to secure the event, and security officials have detained dozens of people they identify as potential protest organizers, including members of left-wing groups, environmental activists, and pro-Palestinian demonstrators, to prevent unplanned disruptions described by officials as “public nuisances.”

    For the Turkish government, the summit represents far more than a security meeting: it is a high-profile global marketing opportunity to tie Turkey’s booming domestic defense industry to Western supply chains and highlight the country’s growing industrial capabilities. Turkey has rapidly expanded its defense manufacturing footprint in recent years, emerging as a leading global exporter of armed drones, advanced ammunition, and naval vessels, with defense exports projected to hit $10 billion in 2025. Ankara’s existing alignment with NATO’s industrial standards also positions the country to capitalize on any expansion of the alliance’s European defense output, a factor that has softened criticism from Western allies of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s increasingly hardline crackdown on domestic political opposition. European leaders have opted to set aside concerns over democratic backsliding in Turkey in exchange for Ankara’s commitment to contribute troops from NATO’s second-largest standing military (second only to the United States) and help jumpstart a continent-wide revival of European defense production.

    The summit’s central agenda item revolves around the alliance’s new strategic framework, already labeled NATO 3.0 by alliance insiders. The concept builds on two prior eras of alliance adaptation: the post-Cold War restructuring that defined the original NATO 1.0, and the shift to counter-terrorism readiness that followed the September 11 attacks, known as NATO 2.0. The updated framework prioritizes three core goals: upgrading allied military capabilities, modernizing cross-bloc defense industrial infrastructure, and redistributing the burden of collective defense as the United States reorients its global military focus toward countering China.

    The Pentagon has already announced a six-month review to determine which conventional forces, aircraft, and capabilities it will withdraw from European bases. While the full details of the drawdown have not been made public, anonymous military sources shared specifics with Reuters outlining steep cuts to US assets allocated to NATO: the number of F-15 and F-15E fighter jets available to the alliance will drop by a third to 99, the fleet of MQ-4 and MQ-9 Reaper surveillance and strike drones will be halved to 12, KC-135 and KC-46 refueling aircraft will be reduced from 79 to 63, and only one strategic bomber and one aircraft carrier will be assigned to NATO operations, down from the prior commitment of two each.

    Despite the reductions, NATO’s top commander, US Air Force General Alexus Grynkewich, confirmed last week that European allies have already moved to fill nearly all the capability gaps left by the US drawdown. Multiple European diplomats told Middle East Eye that the summit will formalize a strengthening of NATO’s European pillar, with member states set to pledge deeper industrial cooperation, expanded weapons production, and increased operational commitments to the alliance.

    Long-time European affairs journalist Guldener Sonumut, based in Turkey, notes that the shift will require structural changes to NATO’s command architecture. As the US steps back from conventional defense responsibilities, those roles will increasingly fall to European allies and Canada, while Washington retains control over strategic command and core planning functions. “This will require changes in Nato’s command structure, with the US retaining strategic command and planning leadership while Europeans take on more operational responsibilities,” Sonumut wrote in a weekend column.

    The summit also marks a turning point for the alliance’s defense industrial cooperation. NATO’s long-standing Standardisation Agreements (Stanag) are expected to remain the central governing framework for allied military equipment, a move that blocks the European Union from developing separate, standalone defense standards. The outcome is a major win for Turkey’s growing defense sector, which already designs and manufactures all its military hardware to meet NATO Stanag requirements. A dedicated defense-industry forum will be held on the summit’s opening day, where dozens of multinational defense cooperation agreements are set to be signed, covering sectors from multidomain operational capabilities to space-based intelligence gathering.

    Yahya Bostan, a columnist for Turkish daily Yeni Safak, argued last week that years of debate between Turkey and European powers over Ankara’s place in a post-US drawdown European security architecture have ended with a clear consensus: Turkey’s role remains firmly within the NATO alliance. Instead of building a new independent security framework, Bostan says European nations will instead increase defense spending and deepen collaboration under the NATO umbrella alongside Turkey.

    On the nuclear security front, analysts expect the US to reaffirm its role as the alliance’s primary nuclear security guarantor, potentially expanding the number of NATO member states allowed to host dual-capable weapons systems — platforms that can deploy both conventional and nuclear warheads. Currently, only five NATO allies, including Turkey, are permitted to host such systems, and Finland’s parliament has already passed legislation to approve hosting the weapons, clearing the way for its inclusion in the expanded scheme.

    European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte framed the summit’s collaborative vision in a joint op-ed published over the weekend in *The Economist*. “This is a true endeavour on both sides of the Atlantic. Our defences are unmatched when we leverage assets, expertise and innovative capabilities from California to Kyiv, Copenhagen to Warsaw, Oslo to Ankara,” they wrote. “The only way to get there is through co-operation: combining the efforts of countries and industries, allies and partners.” Off the record, European diplomats have already acknowledged Erdogan’s key role in convincing Trump to attend the summit in Ankara, and say they are counting on the Turkish leader to reinforce the value of continued US engagement with the alliance for the Trump administration.

  • Mourning and celebration collide as Iran, US both claim victory

    Mourning and celebration collide as Iran, US both claim victory

    In a striking convergence of historical moments, two defining global events unfolded in the same week: the long-awaited burial of Iran’s slain supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the United States’ 250th anniversary of national independence. Against a backdrop of a fragile 60-day ceasefire that paused a bitter US-Israeli initiated war to open negotiations for a permanent peace deal, both sides have leveraged their respective commemorative events to lay claim to victory in the conflict.

    Khamenei was deliberately targeted and killed in a US-Israeli airstrike on the very first day of the war, February 28. Islamic tradition requires prompt burial of the deceased, often within a day of death, but Khamenei’s remains were preserved for more than four months. Sustained US-Israeli bombardment across Iran made large-scale public commemorative gatherings impossible, forcing Iranian authorities to delay the farewell ceremony until the security environment allowed for a fitting tribute.

    Iran’s Islamic government aimed to push back against the invading force before holding a formal, elaborate state burial. An intermittent ceasefire took effect on April 8, which could have allowed for an earlier service – an event that would have carried the same level of security risk as the ceremony held this week, making the deliberate timing clear.

    The alignment of Khamenei’s burial with the US’ high-profile independence jubilee is no random coincidence, according to regional analysts. While some dismiss the overlap as accidental, a far more plausible reading frames the timing as a calculated move by Iran’s leadership to draw global attention away from the US celebration and assert the Islamic Republic’s continued relevance on the world stage.

    Iran’s new post-Khamenei leadership, headed by Khamenei’s son Mujtaba – who has remained out of public view after reportedly being wounded in the strike that killed his father – was fully aware of months of public planning for the US anniversary. US President Donald Trump, who partnered with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to launch the offensive against Iran, has spent months hyping the 250th independence celebration, promising to showcase what he calls America’s “Golden Age”. He used the event to once again formally claim total victory in the war against Iran.

    The evidence strongly suggests Tehran deliberately scheduled Khamenei’s burial to counter the US festivities. Iranian officials choreographed the mourning events to draw mass public participation and welcome dozens of foreign political and religious delegations from allied and friendly nations across the globe, a turnout that overshadowed much of the US celebration.

    The ceremony also honored Khamenei’s four decades of uncompromising rule as a marja, a leading source of emulation within the Shia Islamic religious hierarchy. Beyond honoring the late leader, the overlapping events sent a series of clear messages to both domestic and international audiences:
    – The Islamic Republic has survived a full-scale foreign invasion and emerged more unified and stronger than it was before the outbreak of war
    – The Iranian regime is far less unpopular and internationally isolated than the US and Israel, its main adversaries, have repeatedly claimed
    – The republic retains the resilience and capability to defend itself against both internal unrest and foreign military aggression
    – The Iranian government remains steadfast in its opposition to its enemies, and positions itself as the ultimate victor in the recent conflict

    The massive public turnout for mourning processions and the large number of foreign delegations in attendance even caught US leadership off guard: Trump had previously claimed that the Iranian people “hated” the former supreme leader, and did not anticipate the scale of public and international support on display.

    Going forward, Khamenei will be enshrined in Iranian history as a transformative religious authority, political thinker, and leader who built the Islamic Republic into a formidable, defensible regional power. While the Islamic system remains firmly entrenched in Iran, observers warn that urgent structural reform remains an unaddressed priority. Widespread public demands for expanded political and social freedoms, and improved economic living conditions, have not faded – instead, these grievances simmer beneath the surface of post-war unity.

    Uncertainty also hangs over the ongoing US-Iran negotiations, and the future political and economic trajectory of the country. If the two sides manage to reach a lasting comprehensive settlement that resolves core disputes – including Iran’s nuclear program, security in the Strait of Hormuz, the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon, the lifting of international sanctions, the unfreezing of Iranian sovereign assets, and the reintegration of Iran’s economy into the global market – it would create space for the Iranian government to address longstanding public demands.

    Iran’s new President Masoud Pezeshkian and National Assembly Speaker Bagher Ghalibaf have both publicly signaled a willingness to pursue reform and change. However, the most powerful political actor to watch remains the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which gained additional influence after the war thanks to its new control over the Strait of Hormuz, granting the group expanded veto power over major domestic and foreign policy decisions.

    For the moment, both Tehran and Washington can each claim a symbolic victory from their dueling, simultaneously held commemorative events. But the permanent agreement that negotiators work toward in the coming weeks will carry profound, long-lasting consequences for both nations, and for global security and stability.

    This analysis is from Amin Saikal, emeritus professor of Middle Eastern Studies at the Australian National University, The University of Western Australia, and Victoria University.

  • No, China did not manage to avoid a crash

    No, China did not manage to avoid a crash

    For decades through the 2010s, global economic observers widely regarded China’s economy as uniquely recession-resistant. Surviving both the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2015 domestic stock market crash and capital outflow event without recording a single quarter of negative growth, the country’s macroeconomic management strategy drew widespread fascination. As early as the late 2010s, analysts noted that Beijing had developed a distinct third tool for economic stabilization beyond the conventional monetary and fiscal policies used by most Western economies.

    Standard counter-cyclical policy relies on two levers: monetary policy, which cuts interest rates to encourage private borrowing and investment, and fiscal policy, which directs government spending directly to public projects to boost employment and aggregate demand. China, however, adds a third mechanism: direct credit policy. Leveraging state control over the country’s banking system, Beijing can order state-owned banks to expand lending rapidly during downturns, then rein in credit once growth stabilizes. When extended loans eventually default, the government steps in to remove nonperforming assets from bank balance sheets, allowing the system to continue lending and supporting growth that eventually reduces the relative size of public debt.

    Throughout the 2010s, this strategy relied heavily on directing new credit to the real estate sector, fueling what remains the largest property construction and price boom in modern history. That era of endless expansion came to an abrupt end in late 2021, when the default of industry giant Evergrande triggered a wave of bankruptcies and missed debt payments across the entire sector. Since then, property prices have fallen continuously, and housing construction activity has plummeted sharply, according to Bloomberg data.

    Yet official GDP growth figures never dipped below 3% even as the property crash unfolded. Mirroring its 2009 and 2015 playbook, Beijing ordered its state-controlled banking system to replace slowing real estate lending with a surge of new loans to manufacturing and industrial firms. The shift succeeded in keeping headline growth stable, leading some proponents of China’s managed market model to declare the strategy a resounding success. In a July 2026 social media post, economist Isabella M. Weber noted that many Wall Street analysts had predicted a 2008-style “Lehman moment” for China in 2021, but the bubble defused without a total financial collapse, arguing that this demonstrated an advantage of state-managed markets over unregulated free markets.

    Critics have long warned that this approach carries steep long-term costs: repeated credit-directed stimulus funnels capital to unproductive, politically favored firms, dragging down aggregate productivity growth. This pattern played out in the 2010s, when massive lending to real estate companies diverted resources from more productive sectors. Now, economists warn that the 2022-2024 wave of industrial lending could leave a lasting overhang of “zombie companies” that hoard labor and capital without generating meaningful economic output.

    Supporters of Beijing’s approach push back against these warnings, arguing that long-term costs are unproven, productivity is difficult to measure accurately, and any structural issues can be addressed later. They frame the outcome as a victory for China’s policy goals: successfully pivoting the economy away from excessive reliance on real estate development without triggering a broad economic contraction. Proponents of expanded state economic control in other countries have also held up China’s performance as evidence of the benefits of greater government intervention in markets.

    However, a closer look at labor market data and independent growth estimates tells a more complicated story. Despite official claims of continued stable growth, China did experience a sharp economic downturn following the property crash, and underlying growth remains far weaker than headline figures suggest.

    The first red flag appears in China’s labor market. In 2023, Beijing revised its methodology for calculating youth unemployment to use a narrower definition, after official figures hit record highs. Even with the methodological change, the youth unemployment trend has still moved upward. Official overall unemployment figures show only a small increase, but independent analysts note that these numbers are incomplete: they exclude migrant workers from rural areas, workers who have dropped out of the labor force, and people waiting to start new jobs. Alternative indicators, such as the non-manufacturing employment purchasing managers index, have remained consistently below pre-pandemic levels since the crash, and the migrant worker population has not grown at all since the COVID-19 pandemic. Record numbers of young people are now opting to pursue postgraduate education or civil service roles rather than entering the open job market, masking the true scale of weak labor demand.

    Even official GDP data contradicts claims that China avoided any quarterly contraction. China typically reports growth on a year-over-year basis, unlike the quarterly sequential reporting used in the U.S. and most other major economies. Official figures show that China’s economy contracted by 0.8% quarter-over-quarter in the second quarter of 2022, equal to an annualized contraction of more than 3% — a figure that was originally reported as a much steeper 9.3% contraction before being revised downward. Even official data confirms that current trend growth is roughly 2 percentage points lower than it was immediately before the pandemic.

    Numerous independent analyses suggest that even the revised official figures overstate growth, due to a long-standing practice of “smoothing” GDP numbers: official statistics understate growth in strong years and overstate it in weak years to present a more stable picture of economic performance. A 2016 academic study found that this practice has resulted in official data overstating actual growth by a substantial margin since 2002. Following the 2021 property crash, multiple independent research groups have reached similar conclusions.

    The Rhodium Group, a leading independent research firm focused on China, used alternative data sources to estimate that China’s economy actually contracted between 0.3% and 0.8% in 2022, compared to the official 3% growth figure, and grew only 1.5% to 2% in 2023, far below the official 5.2% reported. The Bank of Finland found that growth effectively stalled in 2022, and Capital Economics concluded that China did experience a full recession that year, even though growth has picked up moderately since. Adding to evidence of weak demand, China has slipped into deflation, with consumer prices falling into negative territory — a classic indicator of insufficient aggregate demand in a slowing economy.

    It is important to acknowledge that China’s credit-based stabilization policy represents a meaningful innovation in macroeconomic management that merits further study from policymakers around the world. Beijing succeeded in preventing the property crash from spiraling into a total financial collapse, a feat that many analysts once considered unlikely. Even so, triumphal claims that China has eliminated the business cycle and avoided any recessionary pain from the property bust do not hold up to scrutiny. Long-term productivity costs remain a major risk, and even in the short term, the downturn has been far deeper than official figures suggest. If China remains on a trajectory of permanently lower trend growth, the practice of smoothing official growth numbers will eventually become unsustainable, as there will not be enough strong growth in good years to offset the inflated numbers reported during downturns.

  • UK urged to sanction Netanyahu and justice minister over Israeli torture of Palestinians

    UK urged to sanction Netanyahu and justice minister over Israeli torture of Palestinians

    A cross-party coalition of more than 70 British members of Parliament and House of Lords peers has launched a formal call for the UK government to impose targeted sanctions on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and top Israeli justice official Yariv Levin, citing documented systemic abuse of Palestinian civilians by the Israeli government.

    According to reporting from Sky News, the open letter dated last week, addressed to newly appointed UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, bears the signatures of 71 legislators from across the UK’s political spectrum. The campaign is led by sitting Labour MP Neil Duncan-Jordan, and already includes backing from 30 Labour MPs and seven Labour peers — a notable showing of dissent within the ruling party.

    In the text of the letter, parliamentarians argue that direct responsibility for the widespread, systematically documented torture of Palestinian civilians rests at the highest level of the Israeli government, with Prime Minister Netanyahu personally implicated. The group is calling on Cooper to take immediate action to end what they describe as enduring impunity for senior Israeli leaders by imposing sanctions on both Netanyahu and Levin, who holds multiple senior government roles including deputy prime minister, justice minister and interior minister.

    The letter notes that UK sanctions imposed last year on far-right Israeli ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, while a welcome step, have failed to shift the Israeli government’s treatment of Palestinian detainees. Lawmakers add that the situation has since escalated dramatically, with perpetrators of abuse acting with near-total immunity from accountability.

    To back their claims, the letter cites a February 2024 United Nations report that concluded torture has become a core, institutionalized component of Israel’s occupation, inflicted systematically on Palestinian men, women and children through both in-custody abuse and a broader campaign of forced displacement, mass killing, systemic deprivation and destruction of critical infrastructure needed for daily life. It also highlights a recent controversial incident in which Netanyahu publicly praised the decision to dismiss military rape charges against Israeli soldiers accused of assaulting a Palestinian detainee.

    Additionally, legislators point to the interception of the Global Sumud Flotilla bound for Gaza by Israeli forces two months prior, during which multiple British citizens were detained while operating in international waters. Along with Labour signatories, the letter draws support from members of the Green Party, Plaid Cymru, Sinn Féin, the Social Democratic and Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats, the Scottish National Party, and one Conservative Member of Parliament, demonstrating rare cross-party consensus on the need for tougher action against Israeli leaders.

    In response to the letter, a spokesperson for the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office acknowledged the severity of the allegations, telling Sky News that “the reports of mistreatment of detainees by Israeli forces are disgraceful and we have raised this issue with the Israeli government.” The spokesperson added that all detainees are required to be treated humanely in line with the requirements of international law, and that all credible allegations of torture and abuse must be subject to full, impartial investigation. The UK, they confirmed, continues to pressure the Israeli government to grant the International Committee of the Red Cross immediate and unfettered access to all Israeli detention facilities, and called the prolonged detention of hundreds of Palestinian children without charge “completely unacceptable.”

    The latest call for accountability aligns with mounting international scrutiny of Israel’s treatment of Palestinian detainees. In March 2024, Francesca Albanese, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on human rights in the occupied Palestinian territories, presented a report to the UN Human Rights Council describing Israel’s prison system as “a laboratory of calculated cruelty,” documenting extreme abuses including the sexual assault of Palestinian detainees with bottles, metal rods and knives.

    Since Israel launched its large-scale military operation in Gaza in October 2023, more than 100 Palestinian detainees have been confirmed dead in Israeli custody, independent monitors report. Analysts widely view this number as a significant undercount, with the actual death toll believed to be far higher. This pressure comes after the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his former defense minister Yoav Gallant in November 2024, charging both with war crimes and crimes against humanity stemming from actions in Gaza since the start of the current conflict.

  • Lethal weapon: How Bollywood’s ‘Chauhaan’ trivialises the suffering of Kashmiris maimed by Indian forces

    Lethal weapon: How Bollywood’s ‘Chauhaan’ trivialises the suffering of Kashmiris maimed by Indian forces

    Twenty-five-year-old Inam Ahmad’s strained, flickering gaze behind thick glasses is a permanent, visible marker of the irreversible harm pellet guns have inflicted on countless civilian lives in Indian-administered Kashmir. In 2017, at just 16 years old, not long after passing his matriculation exams, Ahmad was struck by dozens of pellets fired by Indian armed forces outside his Srinagar home. The shrapnel became embedded in his skull, neck, and behind his eyes, robbing him of 80 percent of his vision. “Every day I live with pain when the pellets shift or heat up,” he explained. “They never let me forget I will never be normal again.”

    Ahmad’s mother Fahmeeda Jan holds a faded childhood photo of her son: a grinning three-year-old in a green tracksuit, clinging to his younger sister’s hand, bright eyes looking up toward the camera. Full of energy before the shooting, her son’s life and the entire family’s future was upended by the injury. After multiple rounds of surgery, crippling medical debt that drained their savings, and the abrupt end to Ahmad’s education, the constant unrelenting pain often pushes Ahmad to breaking point. “He gets so fed up that he pulls his hair in frustration, becomes aggressive, and says he wants to end his life,” Jan shared. Desperate to restore her son’s sight, she once offered to donate one of her own eyes during a trip for treatment outside Kashmir, but doctors told her such a transplant was medically impossible. “Only those who this weapon has hit truly know what it is,” she says.

    Originally designed for bird hunting, pellet shotguns fire hundreds of small metal fragments over a wide, scattered area, making precise targeting impossible. Indian authorities introduced the weapons to Kashmir in 2010 as a so-called “non-lethal crowd control tool” following widespread anti-India protests. But this official classification has been repeatedly challenged by global human rights and medical bodies. The United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights has labeled pellet guns “one of the most dangerous weapons used in Kashmir”, and a 2020 UN guideline on less-lethal law enforcement weapons explicitly states: “Metal pellets, including those discharged by shotguns, should never be used.” Amnesty International has similarly condemned the weapon, noting that “injuries and deaths caused by this cruel weapon bear testimony to how dangerous, inaccurate and indiscriminate it is.” While the weapon is banned for hunting in many countries, official Indian data from 2018 recorded 6,221 people wounded by pellets between July 2016 and March 2017 alone, and no comprehensive full count of casualties has ever been released.

    Ahmad’s story is far from unique. In 2016, 14-year-old Insha Mushtaq was struck by pellets while standing by the window of her family home in Shopian district, resulting in permanent blindness and lifelong facial disfigurement. Just two years later in the same district, 18-month-old Hiba Nisar – the youngest recorded pellet victim – was hit while sitting in her mother’s lap. For thousands of survivors like these, the harm is permanent: pellets remain lodged in soft tissue and bone, causing chronic pain and permanent disability for decades.

    It is against this backdrop of ongoing collective trauma that a 144-second teaser for the upcoming Bollywood film *Chauhaan* has ignited widespread anger and condemnation across Kashmir and among human rights observers. The film, starring A-list actor Ajay Devgn and backed by major production houses Colour Yellow Productions and Jio Studios – owned by Reliance Industries, a conglomerate led by billionaire Mukesh Ambani long tied to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and its right-wing Hindutva agenda – claims in its promotional material that pellet guns inflict only “limited damage” on protesters. In the teaser, Devgn’s voiceover argues that India’s current pellet gun use for crowd control is actually too restrained, calling for harsher measures against unrest in the region. Scheduled for a October 2025 theatrical release, the film is set against the backdrop of the decades-long Kashmir conflict, split between India, Pakistan and China, with early footage showing stone-pelting protests, pellet injuries, and paramilitary operations, pointing to a politically charged narrative aligned with the ruling party’s position.

    Critics say the teaser’s claim of “limited damage” is a grotesque trivialization of a humanitarian crisis that has left thousands permanently blinded or maimed across the region. *Chauhaan* is not an isolated case: for years, activists and locals have decried a pattern of Bollywood films set in Kashmir that advance Hindutva ideology, whitewash civilian suffering, and misrepresent the region’s history. Recent high-profile releases including *Uri: The Surgical Strike*, *Shikara*, *The Kashmir Files*, and *Article 370* all drew massive backlash for framing Kashmiri Muslims as terrorists, altering historical events to align with the ruling party’s narrative, and celebrating the 2019 unilateral revocation of Kashmir’s semi-autonomous status, a move endorsed personally by Modi. Author and Kashmir scholar Mirza Waheed argues that the *Chauhaan* trailer reflects a dangerous shift in Indian public life. “Instead of asking what life is really like for a young person permanently blinded by these weapons, what happens to their dreams and their families, the film explicitly calls for even more severe and lethal tactics,” Waheed explained. He calls this trend a symptom of India’s “post-truth, anti-history” political environment, where “such mendacious narratives seek to subvert Kashmir’s recent history, painting the victims in a completely dehumanized light and the perpetrators as virtuous, heroic.”

    Aga Ruhullah Mehdi, a Kashmiri parliamentarian with the opposition National Conference, described the teaser as deeply disturbing for anyone who has lived through pellet gun violence in the region. “What they call ‘ineffective’ left behind thousands of shattered lives,” he wrote. “For those who lost their eyesight, those who still live with pellets lodged in their bodies, and the families who continue to bear those scars, this is not an action sequence or a cinematic backdrop. It is a lived trauma.” Mehdi added that mainstream Indian cinema has repeatedly reduced Kashmir to a setting for conflict-framed narratives that reinforce harmful stereotypes, noting that “Kashmir deserves empathy, honesty and dignity – not the commercialization of its pain.”

    Scholar and author Dr. Niharika Pandit, whose work examines the impact of widespread militarization in Kashmir, says that since 2014, when Modi’s BJP first took national power, Bollywood has increasingly functioned as a public relations arm for the ruling party. “Earlier Hindi cinema used to project Kashmiris as ethereal, but without any agency; the latest batch of movies has turned far more explicitly propagandist,” Pandit explained. “They peddle the narrative that everything is normal in Kashmir, justify the government’s decisions like the abrogation of Article 370, and further erase Kashmiri histories and lived realities. This is epistemic violence: first you inflict widespread bodily harm that cripples young Kashmiris, then you pretend it never happened or frame it as necessary for national security.” Kashmiri academic Dr. Mohamad Junaid, who teaches at the Massachusetts College of Liberal Arts, adds that Hindi cinema has long followed a pattern of exoticizing Kashmir’s landscape while demonizing its people. “The violence we see on screen is a natural outcome of that dynamic. Hindi cinema is just reflecting what the Hindu right-wing has done to India’s public sphere,” he noted.

    For survivors like Inam Ahmad, the controversy over the teaser is not just an abstract political debate – it is a fresh reopening of a wound that never heals. The damage from that 2017 shooting was never limited. It is a daily reality he and thousands of other Kashmiris will live with for the rest of their lives.

  • World Cup 2026: Did hydration breaks foil the campaigns of Arab teams?

    World Cup 2026: Did hydration breaks foil the campaigns of Arab teams?

    The 2026 FIFA World Cup has introduced a rule change that is upending one of football’s most fundamental truths: that match momentum is the key to securing victory. In a sport where sustained dominance from opening whistle to final blow is rare, capitalizing on hot streaks against less favored opponents is non-negotiable for teams looking to advance. But this year’s mandatory mid-half hydration breaks, implemented to protect players from extreme heat, have repeatedly stopped those game-changing runs dead in their tracks — and disproportionately benefited top-ranked favorites by handing them critical time to regroup, rethink tactics, and seize back control.

    FIFA rolled out the rule ahead of the tournament, mandating two-minute stoppages at the 22nd and 67th minutes for every one of the event’s 104 matches, even those held in cooled indoor venues across host cities including Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles and Vancouver. Beyond giving players a chance to rehydrate and broadcasters an slot for extra commercial airtime, the breaks have fundamentally altered the rhythm and outcome of matches, repeatedly shifting momentum toward more established, tournament-proven sides.

    Long before the tournament kicked off, hints of this dynamic emerged during a pre-tournament friendly between the United States and Senegal, when then-USMNT coach Mauricio Pochettino went viral for pulling out a laptop to walk through tactical clips with his squad during a stoppage. The same pattern has played out across the World Cup: at nearly every hydration break, players are absorbing just as many tactical instructions as they are drinking water.

    The impact has already played out in high-stakes group stage and knockout matches. Curacao, for example, saw its momentum evaporate after scoring a shock equalizer to level the score at 1-1 against Germany, just before a scheduled hydration break. After the stoppage, Germany refocused and netted two more goals before halftime, effectively putting the game out of reach for the underdog.

    In years past, managers were limited to scribbling quick notes on paper and passing them to players along the touchline, crossing their fingers that the message would be understood correctly. These pre-scheduled breaks eliminate that uncertainty, giving coaches time to assess playcalling and adjust tactics mid-half. The advantage for top teams has hit multiple Arab and North African sides particularly hard.

    A analysis from *The Times* found the second-half hydration break in the Uruguay-Saudi Arabia group stage match caused the largest momentum shift of any group stage game. The two-time World Cup champions scored an 80th-minute equalizer after the break; had Saudi Arabia held onto their 1-0 lead, they would have advanced to the Round of 32 to face Argentina in a dramatic rematch.

    Jordan, making its World Cup debut, also saw bids for historic upset results derailed by hydration breaks, holding 1-1 draws against both Austria and Algeria before second-half stoppages allowed the more favored sides to reset. Morocco similarly saw a dominant first-half performance against Brazil halted by a first-half hydration break, which gave Brazil’s coaching staff time to reorganize; the five-time champions equalized soon after and held on for a 1-1 draw.

    The mandatory breaks have not just upset underdog teams — they have drawn intense anger from fans in attendance at the 2026 tournament. The referee’s whistle calling players to the sidelines midway through each half is regularly met with loud boos from the stands. Many fans have accused FIFA of using player heat safety as a cover to pull in more commercial revenue, though FIFA President Gianni Infantino has insisted the governing body “does not make one dollar off the hydration breaks.”

    That claim has been met with widespread skepticism, however, as the breaks are officially branded as a “Powerade Hydration Break.” Even if FIFA’s assertion holds, the breaks open clear pathways to greater commercial revenue in future tournaments. As global television rights come up for renegotiation, FIFA can point to the extra stoppages created by the expanded 104-match format as justification for higher rights fees. The organization has already announced a new title sponsorship deal with ADI Predictstreet, a sports betting prediction platform launched just months before the World Cup; extra in-game breaks create natural slots for branded betting graphics and promotional content that encourage in-match wagers.

    Critics have also pushed back on growing calls from former star players to make hydration breaks a permanent rule. On social platform X, journalist Leyla Hamed pointed out that many of the former players pushing for institutionalized breaks have ties to betting companies. Her post included screenshots of World Cup winners Roberto Carlos and Iker Casillas advocating for the change, with Casillas even floating a radical restructuring of the sport: “Don’t you think four periods of 25 minutes would be a good idea for football matches?”

    Even top coaches from favored nations have openly criticized how the breaks alter the core identity of football. England manager Thomas Tuchel, whose side benefited from the breaks in their Round of 32 win over DR Congo, shared his frustration ahead of the match: “I think that it interrupts and changes the identity of a football match much more than I thought. It breaks the match almost into four quarters. And I think it changes the characteristic of the match more than I thought.”

    In that very England-DR Congo match, the impact of the breaks was impossible to miss. DR Congo, the underdog, scored in the 7th minute, and before the first hydration break, England had not recorded a single touch in the opposition penalty area or a single shot on goal. After the stoppage, England registered eight shots and 20 touches in DR Congo’s box before halftime. The second break proved even more costly for the African side: after play resumed, England managed three times as many shots on goal and twice as many penalty area touches as before. Tuchel used the break to adjust his tactics, shifting midfielder Declan Rice to right-back, and the change paid off: Harry Kane scored two second-half goals to send England through to the Round of 16. After the match, Tuchel softened his tone, saying “I make the most of it. You know I don’t really love them.”

    For the coming final week of the tournament, the breaks will likely remain in place regardless of controversy: a major heatwave is forecast to hit the U.S. Eastern Seaboard, where multiple knockout matches will be held, making player hydration a legitimate concern. But the debate over the rule’s impact on the sport, and its commercial implications, is only just beginning.

  • Injured Penaud to miss France games against Australia and Japan in Nations Championship

    Injured Penaud to miss France games against Australia and Japan in Nations Championship

    BRISBANE, Australia — The French national men’s rugby team has confirmed that star winger Damian Penaud will not compete in the country’s two remaining matches on the 2024 Nations Championship schedule, after he picked up a damaging calf injury during France’s narrow opening-round 34-32 defeat to New Zealand over the weekend.

    Penaud turned in an unforgettable individual performance to open the match in Christchurch on Saturday, crossing the try line just two minutes after kickoff to score his 41st international try. The try pushed Penaud further ahead as the all-time leading try scorer in French men’s rugby history, a record he already held entering the tournament. Despite the electric start, the winger was pulled from the game at halftime as trainers noticed discomfort in his calf, and further assessments confirmed the injury would require extended rest.

    On Monday, French rugby officials officially confirmed Penaud’s withdrawal from the tournament squad. The injury rules him out of France’s upcoming match against host Australia in Brisbane this Saturday, as well as a July 18 test against Japan in Tokyo. As of Monday’s announcement, Les Tricolores have not yet named a replacement player to fill Penaud’s spot on the roster for the remaining two matches.

    The injury marks another unexpected turn in Penaud’s 2024 international campaign: the winger had only just returned to the French squad ahead of the Nations Championship, after being dropped from the team’s roster for the 2024 Six Nations tournament earlier this year.