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A top senior advisor to former US President Donald Trump has announced a historic reorientation of Washington’s approach to the Arabian Gulf, bringing an end to an 80-year-old foundational arrangement that traded US security guarantees for access to Gulf oil supplies. Speaking Tuesday at the Doha-based Global Security Forum, Tom Barrack — the current US ambassador to Turkey and special envoy for Syria and Iraq — made clear that the long-standing global order where the United States served as the sole security guarantor across the Middle East is now a thing of the past.

Barrack, a figure long known for his critical views of colonial-era divide-and-rule policies in the Middle East and his vocal praise for the Ottoman Empire’s governance of the region, argued that Western powers for decades intentionally benefited from regional instability. “Conflict and controversy was actually to the western favour,” he explained. “The more off-base the region was, the more [the West] could manipulate fossil fuels for its own benefit. That’s not in existence anymore.” He emphasized the core new direction of US policy: Washington no longer seeks to exercise direct ownership or control over the Gulf region.

The policy shift comes in the aftermath of a tense diplomatic rift earlier this year, when Gulf states lobbied the US to reject plans for a joint US-Israeli attack on Iran, only to see their appeals ignored by Washington. Following the February 28 strike, Iran launched retaliatory waves of drone and missile attacks targeting the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Bahrain, leaving the region to grapple with the fallout of the aggression.

When pressed on whether Gulf states could continue to depend on the post-WWII US security umbrella that has anchored regional security for generations, Barrack gave a blunt answer: no. “In the region, everybody is saying if we have America and we are selling oil and gas in dollars and we buy weapons in dollars and we have bases of Americans… we are going to have free seas, and we are going to have a security guaranty. All of a sudden, that doesn’t happen,” he noted. Barrack traced this dramatic reassessment of US commitments directly to the fallout of the joint US-Israeli campaign against Iran.

Crucially, Barrack stressed that the policy shift does not amount to a full US withdrawal from the region. “The bargain is not to own, not to control, but not to leave. We’re not leaving,” he clarified. Describing the transition to a new regional framework as a awkward, challenging process, he compared it to raising a teenager: “What’s happening in this administration is not an abandonment. It’s a message for realignment. And that message is like raising a teenager. It’s not easy.”

Under the new approach, Washington will back regional efforts to build local security architectures to replace the old US-led framework, including the Mecca Pact. Barrack pointed to Saudi Arabia’s activation of joint defence pacts with Pakistan and Turkey to counter Houthi aggression as an example of the new, region-led order taking shape. “Everybody’s got to be on their own regional alliances, which is what’s happening,” he said.

Barrack’s landmark remarks arrive as the entire Middle East braces for the possibility of a new, full-scale war against Iran. In recent weeks, leaders from Qatar and Egypt have issued repeated warnings that the region is on the brink of a major new conflict. While large-scale kinetic attacks have calmed in recent weeks, with Iran continuing targeted strikes on commercial shipping in the strategic Strait of Hormuz and the US maintaining its strict economic blockade of the country, tensions have been reignited by former President Trump’s recent escalation.

Ahead of Israel’s upcoming general elections this month, Trump openly endorsed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and raised the stakes for new military action. In comments Sunday, Trump said he wanted Netanyahu to remain in office to help “finish the job” against Iran unless the Iranian government quickly alters its policy trajectory.

The center of current regional hostilities has shifted to Yemen, where the Iran-aligned Houthi movement has carried out crippling attacks on Saudi civilian airports and critical energy infrastructure. Saudi Arabia backs Yemen’s internationally recognized government, but deep internal divisions within the administration have prevented any successful large-scale counter-offensive against Houthi positions. Though Riyadh and its Yemeni allies have repeatedly pledged to retake all occupied territory from the group, Barrack cast serious doubt on the likelihood of a military victory.

“These kinetic reactions have never worked. It doesn’t work. It’s probably not likely that it’s going to work,” he said when asked about Saudi prospects for defeating the Houthis militarily. He added that while Trump remains committed to providing logistical support to Saudi Arabia, the US will not commit ground troops to another Middle Eastern conflict: “The president has been clear that he supports Saudi Arabia, and the backing they need logistically he will supply, but America getting involved in a ground kinetic battle somewhere else sounds fruitless.”

Barrack is the second high-profile Western leader to publicly rule out a military solution to the Houthi conflict. Earlier this week at the same Doha forum, former MI6 director John Sawers made similar remarks, stating plainly that “the Houthis are here to stay.”

A 35-year-old Hasidic religious worker from Israel, Yehonatan Ovadia, is currently detained at New York City’s Metropolitan Detention Center and at risk of deportation back to his home country—penalties his legal team say are rooted solely in his participation in peaceful pro-Palestinian advocacy, marking the latest case in a sweeping Trump administration crackdown on dissenting speech regarding Israel’s actions in Gaza.

Ovadia first entered the United States in 2022 on a temporary religious work visa, and successfully re-entered the country in April 2024 under a visa set to expire in November 2025, U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) confirmed to Middle East Eye. When Ovadia’s congregation applied to extend his worker status, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) initially granted an extension through 2028—only to reverse the decision days later in a discretionary denial.

The reasoning for the reversal was explicitly tied to a 2023 pro-Palestinian demonstration Ovadia joined in Ramapo, New York, USCIS informed his legal team. Anonymous community sources report that Ovadia was hit with multiple hate crime-linked charges after an Israeli flag was torn down at the protest. While Ovadia has openly acknowledged he attended the demonstration and drove participants to the site, he denies any involvement in removing the flag. Prosecutors ultimately dropped all charges against him, leaving him with no criminal convictions on record.

Ovadia’s lawyers argue that the flag at the center of the incident was likely displayed illegally, and emphasize that an immigration judge has already ruled Ovadia poses no public safety risk. They characterize his ongoing detention as unlawful, noting that U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has repeatedly used the same punitive framework against pro-Palestinian protesters across the nation, and has now applied it to a serving Hasidic religious worker.

DHS confirmed that ICE took Ovadia into custody in August. A department spokesperson defended the action, claiming the administration acted within its legal authority to detain non-citizens who “advocate for violence, glorifies and supports terrorists, harasses Jews, and steals property.”

Ovadia’s legal team rejects this characterization and calls the administration’s actions unlawful. “This is a peaceful protest being dressed up as a crime to punish speech the (Trump) administration doesn’t like,” a legal representative stated. “Federal judges have called out DHS and ICE again and again for breaking the law. We are calling them out now, and we trust that a judge in this case will too. Justice is coming.”

Beyond the legal battle, Ovadia’s detention has inflicted severe hardship on his family. A husband and father of children, Ovadia was the sole breadwinner for his household before his arrest, and community members recently launched a fundraiser to cover two months of back rent the family could not pay. Court documents dated October 1 also outline troubling conditions of Ovadia’s detention: he reports losing at least 25 pounds since being taken into custody, and multiple critical religious accommodation requests have been denied. According to the filings, when Ovadia requested adjustments to accommodate his religious practices, facility staff responded, “you’re not special.” During the recent high holy holiday of Yom Kippur, Ovadia did not receive the correct religious texts for prayer and was denied a dedicated appropriate space for worship.

Ovadia’s case is not an isolated incident. It is part of a broader pattern of targeting by the Trump administration, which has publicly pledged to purge anti-Israel rhetoric from public discourse among non-citizens. In recent months, pro-Palestinian protesters, scholars, activists, and journalists have faced arrest, detention, or loss of access over the administration’s expanding free speech restrictions.

High-profile prior cases include Badr Khan Suri, a Georgetown University scholar and legal U.S. resident married to an American citizen, who was detained by ICE in March 2025 on orders from Secretary of State Marco Rubio over claims he “spread Hamas propaganda and promoted antisemitism on social media.” He was released two months after his arrest. Palestinian activist Leqaa Kordia was arrested outside Columbia University for participating in pro-Palestinian protests and spent more than a year in ICE detention. Green Card holder Mahmoud Khalil, another Palestinian activist married to a U.S. citizen, was detained for over 100 days for his involvement in Columbia’s pro-Palestinian campus encampments.

The crackdown has also extended to press freedom: last month, CNN, MS Now, and Politico were banned from White House access after President Donald Trump criticized their coverage, though a federal judge ordered their press credentials restored just days later. Critics of the administration argue these interconnected cases reflect a deliberate campaign to suppress free speech and press freedom, particularly for voices that criticize Israel’s military campaign in Gaza.

Emmanuel Macron, the French President, touched down in Bahrain on Tuesday for the third stop of his four-nation Gulf tour, facing immediate calls from 32 international and regional human rights organizations to confront Bahraini King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa over a sharp escalation of domestic repression in the kingdom. Macron’s visit comes at a moment of deep political turbulence at home, where hundreds of thousands of protestors have taken to the streets to decry rising living costs and what they see as a broken French social contract.

The coalition of rights groups, which includes the Bahrain Institute for Rights and Democracy (BIRD), Human Rights Watch, and the International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH), submitted an open letter to Macron ahead of his meeting with King Hamad. The letter details a rapid intensification of crackdowns on political dissent following the outbreak of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran in late February, noting that the current wave of repression is the most severe Bahrain has seen since the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings. The groups warn that deepening political and security cooperation between France and Bahrain risks emboldening the Al Khalifa regime to continue its abusive practices.

Since the war began, Bahraini authorities have arrested more than 700 people accused of expressing sympathy for Iran, stripped citizenship from 69 citizens including 33 children – the youngest of which was only 19 days old at the time of the action. The letter also highlights the death in custody of 32-year-old Sayed Mohamed al-Mousawi, whose body showed clear signs of torture when returned to his family, and notes that 19 prisoners currently face the death penalty, 18 of whom have exhausted all legal appeals. Bahrain, a Sunni-ruled kingdom with a majority Shia population, has a long history of repressing democratic dissent dating back to the 2011 uprisings that were violently quelled by state security forces.

Among the most high-profile political prisoners still detained are two European citizens: Bahraini-Danish activist Abdulhadi al-Khawaja, who has now spent 15 years in prison, and Swedish-Bahraini cleric Mohamed Habib al-Muqdad. Al-Khawaja’s daughter, prominent Bahraini activist Maryam al-Khawaja, drew a direct parallel between unrest in France and continued repression in Bahrain, saying: “At a time when students are protesting for better conditions in France, President Macron is in Bahrain, where two EU prisoners of conscience are still imprisoned after 15 years.”

Abdulhadi al-Khawaja, a lifelong human rights defender, was arrested during the 2011 crackdown after masked security forces raided his family home in the middle of the night, beating him so severely he required four hours of reconstructive facial surgery. He was later sentenced to life in prison on charges of terrorism and attempting to overthrow the government, charges widely rejected by the international human rights community. “My father recently told me how it was a peaceful student protest that embarked him on his journey as a human rights defender. As an EU leader, I hope Macron calls for the release of my father and other prisoners of conscience,” Maryam al-Khawaja added.

Sayed Ahmed Alwadaei, advocacy director at BIRD, emphasized that France must not trade human rights commitments for economic and strategic gains. “France must not sacrifice human rights for lucrative Gulf deals under the guise of regional security. Bahrain must not be allowed to buy France’s silence. Those responsible for serious human rights abuses must face consequences, not rewards from France,” he said.

Antoine Madelin, FIDH’s advocacy director, echoed this sentiment, linking the current energy crisis to long-term political stability. “The current crisis should remind President Macron that lasting energy security depends on respect for human rights and peace. France must look beyond immediate supplies and support the open, democratic societies on which a stable future depends,” he said.

Despite the criticism, Macron’s visit proceeded with full ceremonial honors in the capital Manama on Tuesday, where crowds of school children lined the route waving French and Bahraini flags, and the French president walked a flower-strewn red carpet alongside King Hamad, his sons, and a military honor guard.

Macron’s Gulf tour, which runs from October 19 to 21 and includes stops in Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Qatar, is directly tied to addressing the energy crisis sparked by the war on Iran, which has blocked the Strait of Hormuz and sent global crude oil and energy prices skyrocketing. As domestic inflation and energy costs have spiked in France, sparking mass weekend protests that drew an estimated 550,000 people across the country, Macron used his trip to issue a statement condemning violent protest action while acknowledging that protestors held “legitimate concerns.”

The Élysée Palace confirmed that Macron has already secured new energy commitments from Gulf producers, including 100,000 additional tons of diesel per month from the UAE and another 100,000 tons from Bahrain, with added supplies from Saudi Arabia bringing the total new monthly commitments to 295,000 tons – equal to just over 10 percent of France’s total monthly consumption. Beyond energy deals, Macron is also expected to discuss new defense cooperation agreements with Bahraini authorities. According to industry outlet Intelligence Online, following the full withdrawal of French forces from Iraq, Macron is preparing to announce the deployment of new French air defense troops to Gulf states to protect against frequent Iranian missile and drone strikes that have occurred since the outbreak of war in February. France charges millions of dollars annually for this type of air defense support, which also includes training for local armed forces, a model already in place in the UAE for many months.

With Macron’s second term set to end in 2027 and French presidential elections scheduled for April of that year, the trip is also a key part of his administration’s efforts to shore up energy security and stabilize domestic politics ahead of the election. However, rights groups argue that any short-term gains from energy and defense deals will come at the cost of France’s reputation as a defender of human rights in the region.

A pivotal development has reshaped geopolitical dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean this week, as Libya’s Benghazi-based House of Representatives formally approved a long-stalled maritime boundary agreement with Turkey on Tuesday. In an official announcement posted to its website, the eastern legislative body also announced the revocation of a 2019 boycott targeting Ankara, a concrete signal of warming relations between Turkey and the eastern Libyan administration.

The original agreement was first signed in 2019 between Ankara and Libya’s UN-backed Government of National Accord based in Tripoli, crafted explicitly to push back against competing maritime claims advanced by Greece and Cyprus in the energy-rich Eastern Mediterranean. For years, the deal remained trapped in political limbo, held up by Libya’s decade-long division into two competing governing blocs: the internationally recognized administration in Tripoli, and the self-declared government in eastern Libya led by Libyan Arab Armed Forces commander Khalifa Haftar.

Over the past 18 months, however, Turkey has deliberately rebuilt diplomatic and economic ties with Haftar and his inner circle, particularly his son Saddam Haftar, a rising political figure in eastern Libya. Multiple sources familiar with the negotiations confirmed to Middle East Eye that the timing of the ratification—coinciding with a reported visit to Tripoli by Turkey’s intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin—was no accident. Kalin has cultivated deep personal connections with Haftar’s camp and drove the diplomatic push to finalize the agreement, the sources said.

For years, regional diplomatic observers have noted that Greece exerted relentless pressure on Haftar to block the deal, a move that would severely undermine Athens’ own expansive maritime claims in the region. But analysts note that Haftar’s calculus shifted as he sought to diversify his regional partnerships, and Turkey offered tangible benefits that Greece could not match.

“Turkey is a major regional power that can deliver significant support in the defense industry, open up new investment avenues, and help Haftar secure broader international legitimacy,” explained Bilgehan Ozturk, a non-resident fellow at the Doha-based Global Institute for Strategic Research. “Greece simply does not have those tools to offer.”

The ratification also comes on the heels of a major political shakeup in eastern Libya earlier this month, when Haftar forced out long-time House speaker Aguila Saleh and installed his ally Al-Salhin Abdelnabi al-Obeidi in the role. Diplomatic sources say the approval of the deal is the first major signal of the new legislative leadership’s alignment with Haftar’s shifted regional approach.

Tuesday’s vote builds on months of incremental diplomatic progress. Turkey has spearheaded diplomatic efforts alongside other regional powers to reconcile Libya’s rival political factions, culminating in a US-backed confidence-building agreement signed by both blocs in Tripoli this past August. That deal paves the way for national presidential and legislative elections to be held within the next two years, a major step toward ending years of political deadlock.

According to a Libya-based source involved in the negotiations, the ratification served as a critical confidence-building gesture from Haftar’s camp to prove its commitment to improved ties with Ankara. “This is just the beginning,” the source told MEE. “We will see major restructuring of Libya’s governing system in the coming months.”

The source added that a final unification deal, backed by the U.S. and its envoy Massad Boulos, would likely see current Tripoli-based prime minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh retain his post, while Haftar or one of his sons assume the presidency, merging the two rival administrations into a single national unity government.

Ozturk added that Turkey’s own recent diplomatic overtures to Egypt and Saudi Arabia — key backers of Haftar for years — have also created the space for Haftar to deepen ties with Ankara. “All regional actors are looking to keep their options open right now,” he noted.

The ratification follows a landmark visit by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in early August, which saw Fidan travel to Tripoli and make the first ever visit by a senior Turkish diplomat to Benghazi, where he met with Haftar, his two sons Saddam and Belkacem, and then-speaker Aguila Saleh. Ankara framed the visit as a core part of its “One Libya” policy, which prioritizes the unification of the country’s competing institutions.

Regional analysts have described Tuesday’s vote as a transformative moment for both Libyan politics and Eastern Mediterranean geopolitics. “You cannot overstate how important this decision is. It is deeply strategic, and it will change the entire trajectory of the region,” said Jalel Harchaoui, a leading Libya expert at the UK-based Royal United Services Institute. He called the ratification a watershed moment in Libyan politics, creating an irreversible shift toward political reconciliation after more than a decade of division and intermittent conflict.

The deal also marks a major political win for Saddam Haftar, who Harchaoui confirmed is a rapidly rising power broker in eastern Libya. Harchaoui cautioned that the agreement will almost certainly trigger backlash from Greece, Cyprus, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates — all of which have long benefited from a frozen, divided conflict in Libya to advance their own strategic goals, including efforts to contain Turkish influence in the region.

The analyst also offered a cautiously optimistic outlook for neighboring Sudan, where the ongoing civil war has been partially funded by backers in eastern Libya. Harchaoui predicted that if the new political trajectory holds, Saddam Haftar will likely end his support for the Rapid Support Forces, the paramilitary group leading the ongoing offensive against Sudan’s civilian government.