Iran is dramatically accelerating its oil export operations in anticipation of a potential US military strike that could severely disrupt its ability to move crude to international markets. According to data from Kpler cited by Bloomberg, Iranian oil loadings from Kharg Island reached approximately 20.1 million barrels between February 15-20—equivalent to over three million barrels per day (bpd). This figure represents nearly triple the volume loaded during comparable dates in January and drastically exceeds Iran’s previous three-month average of 1.54 million bpd.
Kharg Island, responsible for approximately 90% of Iran’s oil exports, represents a highly vulnerable target in any potential conflict. This urgent export surge mirrors Tehran’s actions in June 2025, when Iran rushed to ship oil ahead of US airstrikes on its nuclear facilities.
The regional oil production landscape shows other major producers are also taking precautionary measures. Reuters reports that Saudi Arabia is increasing both production and exports as part of a contingency plan should US-Iran hostilities disrupt global supplies. The kingdom implemented similar measures in June 2025, boosting exports by around 500,000 bpd during the previous crisis.
Market indicators strongly reflect these mounting tensions. Charter rates for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) have more than tripled since January to over $170,000 daily, according to LSEG data. These rates, determined by supply and demand dynamics, indicate substantially increased booking activity for these massive vessels whose availability remains largely fixed due to lengthy construction times.
Meanwhile, Brent crude prices have climbed over the past month, trading up 0.38% on Wednesday at $70.84 per barrel amid the escalating geopolitical tensions.
The current crisis has been building since January, when President Trump first contemplated military action following Iran’s suppression of protests. Although demonstrations have subsided, Trump has maintained aggressive rhetoric while overseeing the largest US military buildup in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq invasion. The region now hosts two aircraft carriers, dozens of advanced fighter jets, and—in a highly unusual move—a deployment of stealth F-22 Raptor jets to Israel, signaling unprecedented preparedness for potential conflict.









