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  • IMF warns Trump’s Iran war could unleash global recession

    IMF warns Trump’s Iran war could unleash global recession

    As international financial leaders gather in Washington D.C. for the International Monetary Fund’s annual Spring Meetings, the institution has issued a stark warning: the ongoing US-Israeli military conflict in Iran threatens to derail global economic momentum, trigger a new energy crisis, and push vulnerable economies into deep recession. The grim update, included in the IMF’s latest *World Economic Outlook*, comes as independent analysts and policy experts warn the long-term financial cost of the conflict to US taxpayers alone could top $1 trillion, with disproportionate harm falling on low-income and vulnerable communities worldwide.

    Prior to the outbreak of hostilities, the IMF had upgraded its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.4%, buoyed by private sector adaptation to ongoing trade shifts, lower-than-expected US tariffs, targeted fiscal support, favorable financing conditions, and a productivity boom driven by emerging artificial intelligence technologies. That positive momentum has now come to a sudden halt, according to Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s director of research. The conflict has already closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s daily oil supplies pass, and damaged key energy infrastructure across the hydrocarbon-rich Middle East. If hostilities continue, the region’s central role in global energy markets makes a full-blown energy crisis increasingly likely.

    Even in the best-case scenario of a quick end to fighting, the IMF projects lasting damage to the global economy. Under a limited conflict framework, global growth is forecast to hit just 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, figures that fall below recent growth outcomes and sit well below pre-pandemic averages. Global inflation, which had been on a downward trajectory, is projected to tick back upward in 2026 before resuming its decline in 2027. The brunt of the impact will fall on emerging market and developing economies, particularly commodity-importing nations that already faced preexisting financial vulnerabilities. Downside risks dominate the forecast: a prolonged conflict, deepening geopolitical fragmentation, underperformance of AI-driven productivity gains, or renewed trade tensions could further weaken growth and roil global financial markets. High public debt levels and eroded policy space leave many nations with little buffer to absorb new shocks. The IMF urges policymakers to prioritize economic adaptability, policy credibility, and strengthened international cooperation to mitigate harm.

    The severity of the ultimate economic shock will depend on how long the conflict lasts and its geographic scale, as well as how quickly global energy production and shipping normalize once hostilities cease, the IMF notes. Impacts will vary sharply across regions: net energy-importing nations face the highest exposure, while low-income countries will see reduced tourism, slowing business activity, and falling remittances from migrant workers employed in the conflict region. Eric LeCompte, executive director of Jubilee USA Network and a United Nations finance expert, called the IMF’s new forecast deeply alarming, noting that the world’s poorest and most vulnerable populations will bear the worst of the crisis. “World leaders coming to Washington are receiving a very dark picture of the global economy,” LeCompte said. “The war is causing greater poverty and increases in our fuel and food costs.”

    Beyond macroeconomic disruptions, a leading Harvard public policy expert who specializes in calculating the true long-term costs of US military conflicts says the total price tag for American taxpayers will almost certainly reach at least $1 trillion once all indirect and long-term expenses are accounted for. Linda Bilmes, the Daniel Patrick Moynihan senior lecturer at Harvard Kennedy School who co-authored *The Three Trillion Dollar War: The True Cost of the Iraq Conflict* with Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, estimates that just the first several days of the US-Israeli assault cost US taxpayers a minimum of $16 billion, nearly $5 billion higher than the Pentagon’s official $11.3 billion estimate.

    Bilmes explains that the Pentagon understates short-term costs by valuing used munitions and equipment at their historical book value, rather than the much higher current cost to replace depleted stockpiles. She also points to multi-year, multibillion-dollar contracts the Trump administration has already signed with major defense contractors including Lockheed Martin that will add to long-term costs. Most significantly, the long-term costs of veterans’ care will create a decades-long financial burden. Roughly 55,000 deployed US troops have been exposed to toxins, burning fuel residues, and other environmental hazards linked to chronic long-term illness. Even if only one-third of these troops file for disability and medical benefits, Bilmes projects those costs alone will reach tens to hundreds of billions of dollars. “We are borrowing to finance this war at higher interest rates, on top of a much larger national debt base,” Bilmes explained. “The result is that the interest costs alone will add billions of dollars to the total cost of this war. And unlike the upfront costs, these are costs we are explicitly passing on to the next generation.” She added that she would not be surprised if the total cost has already surpassed the $1 trillion mark.

    The Washington Post reports the Trump administration is expected to request between $80 billion and $100 billion in emergency war funding from Congress, as part of a broader fiscal 2027 budget proposal that calls for $1.5 trillion in annual military spending. If the request is fully approved, Bilmes notes, total US military spending will rise to levels roughly 20% higher than the peak spending of World War II. Even if Congress rejects the full increase, she projects the conflict will lock in a permanent $100 billion annual increase to the baseline defense budget – a change that compounds to $1 trillion in additional spending over the next decade.

    Other independent economic analysts share the IMF’s warnings of severe global harm. A recent report from Oxford Economics analysts Ben May, Bridget Payne, and Paul Moroz found that an extended conflict in Iran could push the entire global economy into recession. In that scenario, Gulf economies would contract by more than 8% in 2026 before a gradual recovery, while advanced Asian economies heavily dependent on Gulf oil would face steep cost increases from more expensive energy imports and widespread supply chain disruptions. Europe would face a painful squeeze on natural gas and electricity prices, while the US – though buffered by its own domestic energy production – would still see a nearly 20% drop in equity markets that would weigh heavily on consumer spending.

    Domestically, US policy experts have highlighted the conflict’s toll on American household finances and social spending. Dean Baker, senior fellow at the Center for Economic Policy Research, emphasized that the massive military spending required by the conflict comes at the expense of critical domestic social programs. “To be clear, the main reason to oppose this pointless war is its impact on the people of Iran and elsewhere in the region. But it also has a huge economic cost that is seriously underappreciated,” Baker said. Trump’s proposal to spend 5% of US GDP – or $1.5 trillion annually – on the military works out to $12,000 per household annually, he noted. To offset this record military spending, the Trump administration has proposed $73 billion in cuts to non-defense domestic spending, on top of historic cuts to Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program that already serve tens of millions of low-income Americans. “It is striking to see that Congress might be willing to quickly cough up this money for military funding when it has refused far smaller sums that could have made a huge difference in the lives of tens of millions of people,” Baker added.

  • Trump’s McDonald’s stunt with DoorDash grandma sparks backlash over US healthcare costs

    Trump’s McDonald’s stunt with DoorDash grandma sparks backlash over US healthcare costs

    What was meant to be a carefully crafted public relations win for the Trump administration has instead ignited a fierce national conversation about systemic gaps in the United States’ healthcare and gig economy systems. In April 2026, the White House orchestrated a viral event to mark the one-year anniversary of former President Donald Trump’s signature “No Tax on Tips” policy, bringing 58-year-old Arkansas gig worker Sharon Simmons to Washington D.C. to deliver McDonald’s fast food to the Oval Office.

    Simmons, a DoorDash driver from Fayetteville who took up the gig in 2022 to cover her husband’s stage-three cancer treatment costs, quickly became the face of a debate no PR team planned for. Trump himself joked about the staged nature of the moment as Simmons arrived, quipping to reporters, “This doesn’t look staged, does it?” DoorDash later confirmed the delivery was pre-planned as part of the anniversary celebration, and social media users quickly uncovered evidence of the coordinated collaboration between the company and the White House.

    According to Simmons’ own public comments, the elimination of federal taxes on tipped income saved her roughly $11,000 in the first year of the policy, a sum that directly helped cover her husband’s mounting medical bills. That statement was picked up by supporters of the policy, who framed the “No Tax on Tips” measure as a critical win for working Americans, putting much-needed extra take-home pay into the pockets of gig and hospitality workers who rely heavily on gratuities to make ends meet.

    But for critics, the viral moment was not a celebration of policy success—it was a damning indictment of long-standing structural failures in the U.S. healthcare system. As an independent contractor for DoorDash, Simmons does not qualify for employer-sponsored health insurance, paid medical leave, or other core benefits that traditionally protect workers from catastrophic medical costs. Since her husband’s 2025 cancer diagnosis, Simmons has completed more than 14,000 deliveries, leaning on the gig’s flexible hours to balance work and caregiving.

    Commentators and political opponents quickly pointed out that the image of a grandmother in her late 50s making thousands of fast food deliveries just to afford her spouse’s life-saving treatment perfectly encapsulates the crisis facing millions of uninsured and underinsured Americans. The Democratic-led Ways and Means Committee summed up this perspective in a social media post, arguing that Simmons should not be forced to rely on delivery tips to cover healthcare costs, blaming Republican policies for driving up medical expenses for U.S. households.

    Many online observers also criticized the ethics of staging the event, noting that Simmons was flown across the country to Washington to be used as a prop in a political photo op. Critics argued that the orchestrated nature of the moment undermined any claim that it was an authentic, spontaneous example of the policy’s benefits, instead turning a family’s medical hardship into political theater.

    While there was scattered praise for the policy’s tangible financial benefit for Simmons, much of the national discourse that followed the viral clip centered on the broader reality it exposed: millions of older Americans are forced to work well past traditional retirement age, not by choice, but to cover basic needs including life-saving healthcare that their incomes otherwise cannot support. What began as a lighthearted viral moment of fast food delivered to the Oval Office ultimately transformed into a high-profile flashpoint for ongoing debates over healthcare access, gig worker rights, and economic inequality in the United States.

  • Iran war wreaks havoc on global economy and could spark recession, says IMF

    Iran war wreaks havoc on global economy and could spark recession, says IMF

    The simmering conflict that erupted after U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran in late February has upended years of gradual economic recovery, casting a sudden, dark shadow over global growth prospects, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned in its latest semiannual World Economic Outlook. The institution has cut nearly all of its 2026 growth projections, stressing that prolonged conflict in the energy-rich Middle East could push the global economy into a full recession, a scenario not seen since the immediate aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Prior to the outbreak of hostilities, the global economy had been on a steady upward trajectory. The IMF notes that strengthening growth was fueled by a booming global tech sector, easing trade policy frictions between major economies, targeted fiscal stimulus in multiple large markets, and generally accommodative global financial conditions. That momentum has now been completely derailed by the conflict, according to IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.

    “The global outlook has abruptly darkened following the outbreak of war,” Gourinchas stated in the report. He highlighted the unique strategic importance of the Middle East to global energy security, warning that any prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz or widespread damage to regional oil and gas production infrastructure could spark an energy crisis of a scale never seen before in modern economic history.

    The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping lane that narrows to just 33 kilometers at its thinnest point between Oman’s Musandam Peninsula and Iran, is widely recognized as the world’s most critical energy chokepoint. Roughly 20% of total global crude oil production and one-third of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies pass through the waterway daily, making any disruption to traffic there a major shock to global energy markets.

    In its baseline projection for a short-lived conflict, the IMF now forecasts global gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by just 3.1% in 2026. That marks a 0.3 percentage point downgrade from the 3.4% growth prediction the institution released just three months ago, before the war began.

    Growth downgrades have hit every corner of the global economy, with some regions facing far steeper cuts than others. Among G7 advanced economies, the United Kingdom saw the sharpest downward revision, with its 2026 growth forecast cut by half a percentage point to just 0.8%. The U.S. saw a more modest 0.1 percentage point cut, bringing its projected growth to 2.3% for the year. Emerging market economies are also bracing for significant headwinds: sub-Saharan Africa’s growth forecast was lowered by 0.3 percentage points to 4.3%, while the Middle East and North Africa region suffered the steepest overall downgrade of 2.8 percentage points, dropping to just 1.1% growth. That sharp cut reflects direct damage to regional infrastructure and risks of prolonged disruption to the Strait of Hormuz.

    Inflation projections have also been revised sharply upward as energy prices soar in the wake of the conflict. The IMF now projects global inflation will hit 4.4% in 2026, up significantly from its earlier forecast of 3.7%. Since the conflict began, global crude oil prices have surged above $100 per barrel, while natural gas prices have jumped more than 80% compared to pre-war levels.

    The IMF has mapped a range of possible outcomes depending on how the conflict unfolds, from a relatively mild best-case scenario to a catastrophic worst-case scenario. In the most severe outcome, a protracted, long-running war would drag global growth down to just 2% and push global inflation to 6%. The IMF notes that global growth has fallen below the 2% threshold only four times since 1980, with the most recent instances being the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic – events widely classified as global recessions.

    Even the most optimistic scenario, in which the war ends quickly and the Strait of Hormuz returns to full operational capacity immediately, would still deliver a major shock to the global economy. Under this best-case outcome, the IMF still projects global oil prices will rise by 21.4% in 2026, while overall global energy commodity prices – which were previously forecast to fall this year – will instead rise by 19%.

    Gourinchas explained that this jump in commodity prices represents a classic negative supply shock that will ripple through every sector of the global economy. “Raising the cost of all energy-intensive goods and services – including fertilisers, chemicals, food, transportation, and heating – disrupting supply chains, feeding into headline inflation, and reducing purchasing power,” he said of the impact.

    One notable outlier in the revised forecasts is Russia, which the IMF identifies as the biggest relative beneficiary of the conflict. The institution now projects Russia’s economy will grow by 1.1% in 2026, which is 0.3 percentage points higher than its previous forecast, and slightly up from the 1% growth Russia recorded in 2025. The IMF attributes this upgrade to higher global oil prices boosting Russia’s export revenues, alongside temporary U.S. sanctions relief for some Russian oil shipments that has allowed Moscow to expand its market share.

    This report was originally covered by Middle East Eye, an independent publication specializing in unrivaled reporting and analysis on the Middle East, North Africa, and broader global affairs. For information on republishing this content and associated fees, interested parties can contact the organization via their official website.

  • Almost half of Sudan’s lifesaving kitchens have closed in last six months

    Almost half of Sudan’s lifesaving kitchens have closed in last six months

    Three years into Sudan’s brutal civil conflict, a new study from global humanitarian organization Islamic Relief has revealed a devastating collapse of the country’s grassroots food safety net: nearly half of all community-run lifesaving kitchens, known locally as takaaya, have shuttered their doors in just six months, driven by plummeting international support and economic spillover from the US-Israeli war on Iran.

    Takaaya, operated by local Sudanese mutual aid networks, have emerged as the last line of food assistance for millions of civilians trapped by ongoing fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) since the conflict erupted in April 2023. To assess the state of these critical operations, Islamic Relief conducted a large-scale survey of 844 takaaya across six Sudanese states, confirming that 354 kitchens – 42% of the total sampled – have ceased operations due to crippling shortages of funding and essential supplies.

    The collapse of the community kitchen network comes as Sudan grapples with what the UN calls the world’s largest hunger crisis. Data from the survey and humanitarian agencies confirms that 21 million Sudanese – 45% of the entire population – currently face acute food insecurity, a crisis amplified by mass population displacement, deliberate attacks on agricultural lands, and blockades of key trade routes. Over the past month alone, the US-Israeli war on Iran has upended global supply chains and sent costs soaring across Sudan: fuel prices have jumped by 187% in recent weeks, adding further unsustainable pressure on already strained aid operations.

    The humanitarian catastrophe is compounded by a growing humanitarian tracking crisis: the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) announced this week that the number of people registered as missing in Sudan has surpassed 11,000, marking a 40% increase in just 12 months. To date, the conflict has displaced more than 11 million Sudanese, with many forced to flee multiple times as frontlines shift; 4 million of those displaced have sought refuge across international borders, and thousands more have been killed since fighting began.

    As the conflict enters its fourth year with no sign of de-escalation, international mediators are convening a high-level conference in Berlin on Wednesday – the third anniversary of the outbreak of war – hosted by Germany, the African Union, France, the European Union, the UK and the US. Notably, neither the SAF nor the RSF have been invited to the conference, and no official delegations from the two warring parties will attend. The two sides remain deadlocked, with the RSF and its allied factions controlling Darfur in western Sudan, and the SAF holding most of the rest of the country, each backed by competing regional and international patrons. The United Arab Emirates is the primary military and financial backer of the RSF, led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (known as Hemedti), with exclusive reporting from Middle East Eye last week confirming additional support from Ethiopia, operating from a military base in the country’s Benishangul-Gumuz region. The SAF, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, draws its core support from Egypt and Turkey, and has increasingly gained backing from Saudi Arabia, which is engaged in a regional rivalry with the UAE.

    Humanitarian organizations, aid groups and human rights advocates have issued urgent calls to the governments gathering in Berlin, demanding two key actions: ramp up immediate support for local Sudanese aid groups, and hold parties responsible for human rights abuses accountable. “It is imperative that attending states prioritize the needs of Sudanese civilians over geopolitical interests,” said a Human Rights Watch spokesperson, echoing calls from the British Red Cross and Sudanese Red Crescent for all warring parties to strictly adhere to international humanitarian law, amid ongoing attacks on civilian infrastructure, residential areas and humanitarian workers.

    Unlike large international aid operations, takaaya are rooted in local communities: most operate out of mosques, community centers or private family homes, and work hand-in-hand with Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) – grassroots mutual aid networks that have led the country’s humanitarian response from the earliest days of the war, earning Nobel Peace Prize nominations in both 2024 and 2025.

    For the millions of Sudanese who rely on these kitchens, they are far more than a source of food: they are the only thing keeping many alive. Osama Abdulkafi Mubarak, a chef at a surviving takaaya, told Islamic Relief his kitchen feeds 200 to 250 families every single day. “We usually cook beans ‘foul’ for breakfast, and lentils, pasta and rice for lunch…. It depends on whatever is available on the day. It is very important, it is their main meal,” he said. Mubarak explained that the funding streams that supported kitchens early in the war have entirely dried up. “The main donors who used to pay for takaaya at the beginning of the war have stopped,” he said. “People were more enthusiastic to support. They were willing to help more, but now money is much less, and even people working on the takaaya are suffering because they also have a lot of other responsibilities, and life is tough. I personally think the situation is worse now, especially after this American, Israeli, Iranian war. The economic situation is worse. Overall, it’s worse than before.”

    Mohammed Sulaiman Hilal, a community kitchen beneficiary who relies on the service for daily food, called the takaaya irreplaceable for Sudanese civilians. “Without those community kitchens, life wouldn’t have been possible; people wouldn’t have been able to come back to their areas,” he said. “Most people don’t have jobs, life is stagnated, there is no source of income, most people are fully dependent on takaaya. Without takaaya’s presence there won’t be any humans left.”

    Grassroots aid groups in Sudan have long struggled to secure consistent international funding. While they received limited U.S. funding toward the end of Joe Biden’s presidency, all U.S. support was cut when USAID programs were eliminated under the second Trump administration, leaving groups almost entirely dependent on donations from the Sudanese diaspora and local community giving – streams that have now collapsed amid the country’s deep economic crisis. Rampant inflation has doubled the cost of producing a single meal, pushing most kitchens over the edge. In Khartoum, one volunteer reported that the cost of one meal has more than doubled in six months, jumping from $5 to nearly $12. In Port Sudan, volunteer Alaa saw her kitchen go from feeding 4,000 people a day to total suspension when funding ran out. “When we had to close that kitchen, it felt like abandoning my own family,” she said.

    Islamic Relief’s survey found stark regional variations in kitchen closures, reflecting the uneven impact of the conflict across the country. In North Darfur, where more than half of all children suffer from acute malnutrition, 57% of surveyed kitchens have closed. In Tawila, a destination for thousands of people who fled the RSF capture of el-Fasher, young volunteer-run kitchens are often forced to close for days between the rare incoming donations. Even in Port Sudan, one of the country’s relatively more stable cities under SAF control, six out of seven surveyed kitchens have closed. The only exception is North Kordofan, a site of recent active fighting, where almost all kitchens remain open, sustained by local volunteer efforts.

    Iftikhar Shaheen, global CEO of Islamic Relief, called the collapse of Sudan’s community kitchen network a collective failure of the international community. “The suffering in Sudan is a collective moral failure of the international community. Three years of war have created the world’s biggest hunger crisis, and these locally run kitchens have saved countless lives,” Shaheen said. “Their closure now is a death sentence for many vulnerable families. Heroic volunteers are doing everything they can to keep the kitchens open, but they need more support immediately.”

    The scale of underfunding extends to formal UN-led aid efforts: the 2026 UN humanitarian appeal for Sudan has received only 16% of its total requested funding, while last year’s appeal received less than 40% of the amount needed to meet civilian needs.

  • Wadagni wins Benin’s presidency in landslide vote

    Wadagni wins Benin’s presidency in landslide vote

    Benin’s path to a new presidential term has been cleared with a resounding electoral victory, as the West African nation’s national electoral commission confirmed Tuesday that incumbent Finance Minister Romuald Wadagni has won the presidency by an overwhelming margin.

    Provisional results released by the independent electoral body show Wadagni, 49, and his running mate Mariam Chabi Talata captured an extraordinary 94% of valid votes cast in the poll. Out of 4.64 million valid ballots counted, the ruling coalition ticket earned more than 4.25 million votes. Turnout reached 58.75% across the country’s nearly 7.9 million registered voters, a solid participation rate for the national election.

    Wadagni entered the race as the clear frontrunner from the outset, backed by Benin’s governing coalition. Local political observers and media outlets had widely predicted his landslide win long before official results were tabulated. His only opponent, opposition candidate Paul Hounkpe, ultimately secured just 5.95% of the vote. In a show of democratic commitment, Hounkpe conceded defeat before the official commission announcement, offered what he called “republican congratulations” to his rival, and called on all Beninese citizens to prioritize national unity and uphold respect for the country’s democratic institutions.

    The outcome of the election paves the way for continued policy stability in Benin, particularly for the market-oriented economic reforms advanced over recent years. Those policies have cemented Benin’s reputation as one of the fastest-growing economies in West Africa, and analysts widely expect Wadagni’s presidency to sustain and expand that economic momentum. The landslide mandate, political analysts note, also gives Wadagni a strong mandate to advance his policy agenda as he takes office.

  • In Hormuz war of words, US illustrates threat with ‘drug boat’ hit

    In Hormuz war of words, US illustrates threat with ‘drug boat’ hit

    Rising geopolitical friction between the United States and Iran has reached a dangerous new flashpoint in the Strait of Hormuz, after former U.S. President Donald Trump announced a full naval blockade of the critical global waterway over the weekend, followed by stark threats to destroy any Iranian craft approaching the enforcement line. The escalation, which comes six weeks after the two nations launched an undeclared conflict in the region, has put major energy and trade supplies at risk and drawn pushback from global powers including China, while experts warn the standoff could freeze all maritime traffic through the strait entirely.

    Trump first outlined the blockade order on his Truth Social platform Sunday, framing the move as a response to Iran’s earlier partial closure of the strait, which Tehran implemented after the outbreak of hostilities. The U.S. leader accused Iran of engaging in “world extortion” by claiming potential unreported mines in the waterway and demanding tolls from passing vessels. “I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas,” Trump wrote in his post, adding that U.S. forces would begin clearing mines laid by Iran and that any Iranian attack on U.S. personnel or civilian ships would be met with devastating force.

    On Monday, Trump doubled down on the aggressive posture, threatening that any Iranian vessels that “come anywhere close” to the U.S. blockade would be “immediately ELIMINATED” using the same lethal tactics his administration has deployed against suspected drug trafficking boats in international waters. He characterized the tactic as “quick and brutal,” and noted that 34 vessels passed through the strait on Sunday, the highest daily volume since Iran’s initial closure.

    Parallel to the U.S. escalation, Iran has issued its own firm warnings to Washington, vowing to respond with unforeseen military capabilities if conflict expands. A spokesperson for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) told the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency that if hostilities continue, Tehran will unveil new warfare capacities that enemy forces have no knowledge of, and that these methods will be largely difficult for the U.S. to counter. Iranian Lt. Col. Ebrahim Zolfaqari clarified Iran’s position, stressing that vessels affiliated with the U.S.-led blockade have no right to transit the strait now and in the future, while neutral civilian ships can still pass in compliance with Iranian armed forces regulations. Zolfaqari also warned that if the security of Iranian ports is jeopardized, no ports across the Persian Gulf or Sea of Oman will remain safe.

    The escalating confrontation has already split global powers, with NATO members confirming on Monday they would not participate in Trump’s blockade. China, which maintains active trade and energy agreements with Tehran, has openly defied the U.S. order. Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun confirmed that Chinese commercial and military vessels continue transiting Hormuz waters in accordance with bilateral agreements with Iran, saying “We will respect and honor them and expect others not to meddle in our affairs. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, and it is open for us.”

    Maritime analysts warn the dual, competing blockades from the U.S. and Iran could create an unprecedented logjam in one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. Salvatore Mercogliano, a maritime historian at Campbell University in North Carolina, told Al Jazeera that he expects U.S. naval forces to turn away exiting vessels while staying out of range of Iran’s coastal missiles and drones, resulting in two overlapping blockade operations. This scenario, Mercogliano noted, carries a serious risk of freezing all incoming and outgoing shipping through the strait entirely, a disruption that would send shockwaves through global energy and commodity markets.

    To back up his threat against Iranian vessels, Trump highlighted his administration’s ongoing campaign of lethal airstrikes against suspected drug trafficking boats in international waters, a policy that has already killed more than 170 people and drawn widespread condemnation from human rights groups and international legal experts as extrajudicial killing. On the same day Trump issued his Hormuz threat, U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) carried out a new strike on a vessel in the eastern Pacific, which the command claims was operated by groups linked to narco-trafficking. No publicly released evidence has been provided to support the accusation, and the strike killed at least two people. The attack came just days after separate April 11 strikes on two other Pacific boats that left at least five more dead.

    Following the latest strike, SOUTHCOM published unclassified footage of the bombing on social media, labeling it a “lethal kinetic strike on a vessel operated by Designated Terrorist Organizations”—a move that critics say is part of a pattern of publicizing lethal operations without justifying their legality. Brian Finucane, senior adviser to the U.S. Program at the International Crisis Group, pointed out that the Trump administration has been eager to post graphic footage of these strikes online but has refused to defend the legal standing of the attacks in international waters.

    United Nations experts and multiple human rights organizations have formally condemned the boat bombing campaign as extrajudicial killing and murder, arguing that officials who ordered and carried out the strikes should face prosecution for homicide. Investigative journalist Nick Turse of The Intercept reported hours before Monday’s strike that the Trump administration is actively pressuring the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights to shut down a potential inquiry into the illegal strikes across the Caribbean and Pacific. Last month, the commission held a public hearing where legal experts testified to the unlawful nature of the strikes. Angelo Guisado, senior staff attorney at the Center for Constitutional Rights, told the commission that “The administration’s desire to play imperial superpower in the region cannot be a reason to completely displace the foundations of international law.”

    As of Monday, the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz shows no signs of de-escalation, with both sides holding firm to their competing blockade claims and raising the risk of an accidental clash that could spiral into full-scale open conflict across the Middle East.

  • China faces Trump’s Iran offensive in the Hormuz Strait

    China faces Trump’s Iran offensive in the Hormuz Strait

    Six weeks into the joint U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, a dramatic new escalation by former U.S. President Donald Trump has pushed a long-simmering geopolitical rivalry to the brink of direct superpower conflict. Trump’s recent decision to close the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial ship traffic has left China facing an unprecedented and high-stakes dilemma: comply with the American ban on trade with Tehran, a longstanding strategic partner, or defy the blockade and risk open military confrontation between the world’s two largest nuclear-armed powers.

    Until the blockade was imposed, China had maintained a cautious, distance stance on the ongoing conflict. Beijing publicly criticized the large-scale U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign, noted the Trump administration’s repeated failures to force Iran into submission, and quietly benefited from deeply discounted Iranian crude oil and natural gas shipments that passed unimpeded through the strait to Chinese ports. That quiet balancing act is no longer possible.

    Trump has stated the strait will remain closed to all commercial traffic until every vessel, including those from U.S. Arab allies, is permitted to transit under American terms. For China, maintaining its steady supply of discounted Iranian energy and upholding its decades-long alliance with Tehran now requires directly challenging the U.S. naval blockade.

    Zineb Riboua, a Middle East analyst at the U.S. conservative think tank the Hoover Institute, argues the unfolding crisis is fundamentally rooted in Sino-American competition. Just days after Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched their aerial offensive, Riboua published a report noting that Beijing has invested hundreds of billions of dollars to build Iran into a core strategic asset in the Middle East. “By striking Iran directly, the Trump administration is dismantling – whether by design or by consequence – a pillar of China’s regional architecture,” Riboua wrote.

    The stakes are also personal for the reputations of both Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, who have already been engaged in a gradual, low-intensity confrontation that has rolled back Chinese influence in areas Washington considers critical to its national security. A key precedent came when Trump deployed commandos to Caracas, Venezuela, to arrest then-president Nicolas Maduro on drug trafficking charges. Maduro, who sold oil to China in exchange for military hardware, received no direct intervention from Beijing, a choice that made strategic sense for China at the time: Venezuela only supplied 4% of China’s total oil imports, and the Caribbean falls firmly within the U.S.’s traditional sphere of influence, where China lacks the military capability to challenge American actions.

    Iran is an entirely different proposition. For one, Iran meets 15% of China’s annual fossil fuel demand, all at prices well below the global market average. Beyond energy, Beijing has built a deep strategic partnership with Tehran to develop Iran’s vast rare earth mineral reserves – resources that have become one of the most globally sought-after commodities, due to their non-negotiable role in manufacturing advanced semiconductors. These chips power everything from consumer electronics and artificial intelligence systems to core components of modern military hardware, including the guidance systems for U.S. Tomahawk cruise missiles and the avionics and weapons controls for F-35 fighter jets and armed drones.

    China currently controls roughly 90% of the world’s refined rare earth production, and has long sought to expand its grip on upstream mineral reserves. In 2021, Beijing signed a landmark 25-year agreement to invest $400 billion in Iran’s economy, in exchange for guaranteed long-term access to both Iranian oil and rare earth deposits. Online energy publication OilPrice notes that by positioning itself as a rare earth hub for China, Iran has become far more than just a discounted energy supplier to Beijing. “This gives Xi a reason to view the country as more than a ‘sanctioned’ gas station,” the outlet wrote, adding that the U.S. offensive against Tehran poses a direct threat to this Sino-Iranian resource alliance.

    Beyond energy and minerals, Chinese firms have also played a central role in building and modernizing Iran’s domestic telecommunications and digital surveillance infrastructure. During widespread anti-government protests in Iran earlier this year, the Tehran regime used Chinese-supplied tools including facial recognition cameras to identify, detain and crack down on demonstrators, and deployed China’s “Great Firewall” censorship technology to shut down nationwide internet access to hide evidence of its repression. “Iran has not developed its censorship infrastructure in isolation,” the Washington-based Arab Gulf States Institute (AGSI) wrote in a January report. “The regime has received assistance from China, the world’s most experienced practitioner of internet control.” AGSI added that these Chinese-built systems allow governments to track online users, intercept communications, censor content, and isolate populations during periods of civil unrest.

    All of these Chinese strategic gains, as well as recent diplomatic wins in the region, are now at risk from the U.S.-led offensive. Beijing brokered the historic 2023 reconciliation between long-time regional rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia, welcomed Iran into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, China’s leading regional security bloc, and extended its signature Belt and Road Initiative through Iran to open new trade routes connecting Chinese goods from Central Asia to the Indian Ocean.

    Since the start of the campaign, Beijing has initially taken a diplomatic, rule-based approach to the crisis. “The sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity of Iran and other regional countries must be respected,” China’s UN Ambassador Fu Cong stated. “China stands ready to work with the international community to advance peace efforts and help restore peace and stability in the Middle East at an early date.”

    That diplomatic tone shifted sharply on April 14, the day Trump’s Hormuz blockade took effect. In a defiant public statement, China’s Foreign Ministry made clear it had no intention of backing down: “Chinese ships continue to move in and out of the waters of the Strait of Hormuz. We have trade and energy agreements with Iran, which we will respect and abide by. We expect others not to interfere in our affairs. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, and has opened it to us.”

    A direct naval confrontation between two global nuclear superpowers has not occurred since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, when then-U.S. President John F. Kennedy ordered a naval quarantine of Cuba to stop Soviet shipments of nuclear ballistic missiles. War was averted only when Soviet ships turned back, following a secret compromise that saw the U.S. agree to remove its nuclear missiles from NATO member Turkey.

    Now, analysts warn the Hormuz standoff could escalate to open conflict if China follows through on its promise to continue trading with Iran. “Chinese support for a U.S. adversary could directly result in American casualties,” warned Joe Webster, a geopolitical and energy analyst who authors the China-Russia Report blog. “What will be the U.S. response if Chinese military intelligence support for Iran results in the deaths of US airmen or sailors?” It is a question that hangs over the entire Middle East, with global consequences that remain impossible to predict.

  • Swiss travel retailer Avolta marks a new chapter in the Chinese market

    Swiss travel retailer Avolta marks a new chapter in the Chinese market

    Global travel retail and food and beverage leader Avolta, headquartered in Switzerland, has made its first exhibition appearance at the 2026 China International Consumer Products Expo (CICPE) held in Haikou, marking the start of a fresh, ambitious phase for the firm’s 16-year operation in the Chinese market.

    With a footprint spanning 70 countries, Avolta runs a diverse portfolio that includes duty-free shops, convenience retail outlets, and food and beverage locations around the world. In an exclusive interview with China Daily on the sidelines of the expo, Michael Wong, Avolta’s Managing Director for North Asia, highlighted that the CICPE offers an unmatched platform to demonstrate the company’s full global capabilities and deepen collaborative ties with domestic partners, particularly in China’s Hainan province.

    “We are pleased to be participating in this year’s expo for the first time as an exhibitor,” Wong stated. “It provides an important platform to present Avolta’s capabilities, strengthen relationships across the industry, and support closer connections between brands, partners, and markets.”

    Avolta’s journey in China dates back more than 16 years, with existing operations spread across major transportation hubs and cities including Shanghai Pudong International Airport, Shanghai Hongqiao International Airport, Chongqing, Shenzhen and Wuhan. Earlier this year, the firm marked a historic breakthrough when it secured the bid to launch new duty-free operations at Shanghai Pudong International Airport’s Terminal 1 and Satellite Terminal 1. This win is notable as it marks the first time in 26 years that an international operator has won such a large-scale duty-free tender in China’s key airport sector.

    Wong described the tender victory as a major milestone and the solid cornerstone for all of Avolta’s future business expansion across China. During the 2026 CICPE, the company took the opportunity to launch a key customer initiative: Club Avolta, its first global loyalty program. The program enables registered members to earn and redeem rewards across both retail and food and beverage outlets at more than 5,100 Avolta locations worldwide. To mark its expo debut, all new sign-ups from CICPE visitors receive complimentary automatic upgrades to gold membership, jumping directly from the standard entry-level silver tier.

    In addition to the loyalty program launch, Avolta also presented a carefully curated exhibition of top-selling products sourced from 12 of its key global markets, including Italy, France, Switzerland, and Japan, giving Chinese consumers and industry partners a first-hand look at the breadth of its global supply network.

    When discussing growth prospects in Hainan, Wong emphasized that Avolta sees strong, long-term potential in the region, driven by China’s Hainan Free Trade Port policy and the recent implementation of visa-free entry policies for international visitors that have already spurred a sharp rise in international tourist arrivals. The company is actively exploring collaborative opportunities across the island and stands ready to scale up its footprint the moment market conditions align for expansion.

    “We are very determined to grow in China in the long term, and we want to stay,” Wong said. “When the opportunity comes, we’re ready.”

    Beyond its core mission of bringing premium international brands to Chinese consumers and travelers, Avolta has also outlined a secondary strategic goal: supporting high-quality Chinese brands to access global markets through the company’s extensive international retail network, positioning itself as a two-way bridge connecting the Chinese market with global consumer markets.

    The 2026 China International Consumer Products Expo runs through Saturday in Haikou, Hainan, attracting hundreds of global brands and industry players from across the world seeking to tap into China’s growing consumer demand.

  • Hainan Expo: Why the world comes

    Hainan Expo: Why the world comes

    As one of China’s most anticipated high-profile consumer trade events of 2026, the China International Consumer Products Expo held in southern China’s Hainan Province has emerged as a powerful global gathering, attracting more than 3,400 brands spanning over 60 countries and regions around the world. For years, this annual expo has carved out a unique niche as a gateway for international brands to access China’s vast, rapidly evolving consumer market, and the 2026 iteration has reinforced its reputation as a can’t-miss event for global merchants looking to expand their footprint in Asia and beyond.

    The question on many industry observers’ minds this year is simple: what continues to make this Hainan-based expo such an irresistible draw for businesses across every consumer sector, from luxury goods to sustainable consumer tech, from artisanal food products to cutting-edge home goods? To unpack the appeal of the expo for global participants, China Daily sent correspondent Xia Ji to connect with international exhibitors on the ground, capturing unfiltered insights into what drives brands to commit time, resources, and exhibition space to the Hainan event year after year.

    Against a backdrop of shifting global trade dynamics and growing demand for access to China’s 1.4 billion consumers, the Hainan Expo has positioned itself as more than just a trade show. It serves as a platform for cross-border cultural exchange, partnership building, and trend forecasting, giving small and medium-sized international brands as well as multinational corporations the opportunity to connect directly with Chinese distributors, consumers, and industry leaders. This combination of market access, networking opportunities, and policy support for foreign businesses in Hainan’s free trade port framework has turned the expo into a magnet for global commerce, solidifying its status as a key annual event on the global trade calendar. The 2026 edition’s high participation rate, with more global brands joining than many previous iterations, signals sustained international confidence in China’s consumer market and the long-term value of the Hainan Expo as a trade catalyst.

  • Russian artists perform in Zhangjiajie at cultural exchange event

    Russian artists perform in Zhangjiajie at cultural exchange event

    Against the dramatic backdrop of Zhangjiajie’s iconic quartz sandstone pillars, a cross-border cultural exchange initiative bringing together artistic communities from China, Russia and multiple Central Asian nations has launched at the Wulingyuan Scenic and Historic Interest Area, a UNESCO-listed World Heritage site in Hunan province. The four-day celebration of folk culture kicked off on Sunday, drawing hundreds of performers and curious audiences alike to the scenic banks of the Suoxi River.

    More than 300 participating artists from the three regions have gathered for the event, which is designed to deepen cultural ties and showcase shared appreciation for traditional folk art. The opening day highlights featured a vibrant performance by Russian artists clad in authentic traditional national costumes, who brought centuries-old folk customs to life through rousing song and rhythmic dance. Unlike formal stage-only performances, the interactive program encouraged artists to engage directly with visiting tourists and local residents, creating spontaneous moments of cultural connection that resonated across language barriers.

    Set in one of China’s most famous natural tourist destinations, the event pairs cultural exchange with scenic appreciation, offering attendees a unique experience that blends stunning natural landscapes with diverse cultural traditions. Organizers designed the gathering to strengthen people-to-people bonds between participating Eurasian nations, turning the world-famous scenic site into a bridge for cross-cultural friendship.