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  • From Syria to UAE, the race to bypass Strait of Hormuz is on

    From Syria to UAE, the race to bypass Strait of Hormuz is on

    Against a backdrop of escalating geopolitical rivalry over control of the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical energy chokepoint, the Middle East is embarking on an unprecedented wave of pipeline construction stretching from the Mediterranean coast to the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman. Arab oil-producing nations are racing to build alternative export routes to avoid reliance on the waterway, where Iran has been pushing to assert dominance over global energy supplies.

    Industry analysts project that tens of billions of dollars will be invested in these bypass infrastructure projects over the coming years. While the region has a history of ambitious large-scale energy projects that failed to move forward, energy experts emphasize that the political and economic commitments to reconfigure regional oil flows are genuine this time. “When we speak to our customers in the region, they say they never want to deal with this [Hormuz-related risk] again,” Artem Abramov, deputy head of analysis at Rystad Energy, told Middle East Eye. “These bypass projects will move forward.”

    The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is leading the expansion, currently constructing a second pipeline to the Gulf of Oman port of Fujairah—located outside the Strait of Hormuz— that will double the country’s bypass export capacity by 2027, reaching 3.6 million barrels per day (bpd). Last month, a senior executive from the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company revealed that the state energy producer is also considering a third pipeline to carry refined petroleum products including jet fuel, gasoline and diesel to Fujairah. The country’s crude oil output hit an all-time record high of 4.1 million bpd in June, with existing capacity already allowing it to maintain steady exports through both Hormuz transits and the existing Fujairah pipeline.

    Meanwhile, Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer, signed a landmark agreement with Syria in July to rehabilitate an aged pipeline linking its northern oil fields to Syria’s Mediterranean port of Baniyas. A consortium led by U.S. energy major Chevron, Los Angeles-based TI Capital, and the Syrian-Qatari al-Khayyat billionaire brothers is spearheading the rehabilitation project. If completed, most of the Iraqi crude moving through this new route will likely be sold to European markets, as very large crude carriers (VLCCs) too large to transit the Suez Canal make long-haul shipments to Asia economically unviable, according to analysts.

    Saudi Arabia’s decades-old East-West Pipeline, which runs from the Gulf coast’s Abqaiq oil field to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, has become the regional model for Hormuz bypass infrastructure. Originally built in the 1980s and expanded multiple times since, the pipeline currently carries around 4 million bpd of crude for export, with an additional 2 million bpd supplied to domestic refineries on Saudi Arabia’s west coast. Riyadh is now actively pursuing capacity expansion, with reports indicating it aims to add 2 million bpd of export capacity, a project that will likely require constructing a parallel pipeline and upgrading port facilities at Yanbu to accommodate more VLCCs simultaneously. Despite lower export volumes in early 2024, Saudi oil revenue hit a three-year high in March on the back of elevated global prices.

    This large-scale reconfiguration of regional oil flows is already creating clear winners and losers, reshaping the geopolitical and economic balance of power across the Gulf. Geopolitical and energy analysts note that Saudi Arabia and the UAE have emerged as the primary beneficiaries, cementing their positions as the region’s most influential power brokers and most reliable energy suppliers. In contrast, the geographic vulnerabilities of smaller Gulf states including Kuwait and Bahrain have been laid bare by the ongoing tensions.

    “UAE and Saudi will realise the biggest windfalls from this. Kuwait and Bahrain are the biggest losers,” explained Gregory Brew, senior Iran and energy analyst at Eurasia Group. Kuwait, which depends on the Strait of Hormuz for nearly 100 percent of its oil exports due to its location at the northern tip of the Persian Gulf, has already opened discussions with Saudi Arabia and the UAE to access their bypass pipeline networks. Bahrain, an island kingdom connected to the outside world only by a causeway to Saudi Arabia, faces similar constraints. “Kuwait and Bahrain will require transit agreements and potentially revenue-sharing deals with Saudi Arabia and the UAE,” Brew noted, adding that this arrangement will significantly increase Riyadh and Abu Dhabi’s regional leverage.

    Qatar, the world’s leading liquefied natural gas exporter, is expected to remain almost entirely dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for its exports, analysts predict. The geographic reality of each country’s position dictates the economic benefits and drawbacks of the new pipeline network: while Saudi Arabia and the UAE can maintain access to key Asian markets via their Red Sea and Gulf of Oman ports, Iraq’s new Mediterranean route locks it into primarily serving European markets at the cost of easier access to high-demand Asian economies. “Iraq wants to tap the Asian market. But with this pipeline they would be sending crude to Europe. The ability to generate considerable revenues from that market is constrained,” Brew added.

    Despite the momentum behind the pipeline boom, experts warn that the alternative routes do not eliminate strategic risk. Greg Priddy, energy expert at the Center for the National Interest, points out that all new bypass infrastructure remains within range of Iranian missiles and drones, mirroring how Ukraine has been able to disrupt Russian energy infrastructure with long-range attacks. “The caveat to all these bypasses is that they are still vulnerable to Iranian missiles and drones. The balance in warfare has swung decidedly to offence, away from defence, making it hard to protect these assets,” Priddy said. “Fujairah is a great example. It is close enough to Iran that they can hit anything there with accuracy.”

    The vulnerability of bypass routes was recently underscored by Houthi forces in Yemen, which are backed by Iran. The group recently declared an embargo on Saudi shipping in the Red Sea, forcing at least eight commercial tankers to reverse course to avoid potential attacks on transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

    Escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have intensified after Iran attacked commercial vessels belonging to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan transiting the waterway earlier this month, breaking a recent ceasefire with the U.S. that included a critical sanctions waiver. Some Western diplomats and analysts now argue Iran may have overextended its efforts to assert control over the chokepoint, requiring further escalation to maintain its influence. “Iran might have overplayed its hand in the Strait of Hormuz. It will need to escalate in new ways to impose itself,” one anonymous Western diplomat familiar with Yemen affairs told Middle East Eye.

    Energy analysts agree that the push for bypass infrastructure is a durable long-term trend, with funding secured from regional sovereign wealth funds and global infrastructure investors. “These pipelines are expensive and geopolitically complicated, but the Gulf states will spend serious money for back-up options,” said Ben Cahill, senior fellow at Washington-based think tank the Atlantic Council. “This is a durable trend. There will be backing from sovereign wealth funds and probably infrastructure investors.” As Priddy put it: “What used to look like a $5 or $10bn extraneous bet now looks necessary.”

  • Tunisia: Fears grow for Rached Ghannouchi after reported collapse in prison

    Tunisia: Fears grow for Rached Ghannouchi after reported collapse in prison

    New urgent fears have been raised over the declining health of 84-year-old imprisoned Tunisian opposition leader Rached Ghannouchi, following an eyewitness account of the politician fainting inside a sweltering Mornaguia prison during an intense national heatwave.

    Haifa Chebbi, daughter of jailed Tunisian opposition politician and lawyer Ahmed Chebbi, shared the account in a public Facebook video posted Tuesday. Chebbi explained she observed the incident while visiting her father at the facility, noting that Ghannouchi eventually regained consciousness—but that the episode remains deeply alarming given his advanced age and pre-existing poor health.

    Speaking to the stark inequity of her experience versus that of incarcerated people, Chebbi said, “I can’t describe what it feels like to leave prison. I couldn’t breathe.” She placed direct responsibility for Ghannouchi’s failing condition on Tunisian national authorities, adding, “We are all responsible. We are all complicit.”

    The alarming incident comes as Tunisia battles an extreme heat event that has pushed temperatures above 45 degrees Celsius in multiple regions. The unrelenting heat has sent demand for air conditioning spiking across the country, straining the national electricity grid and triggering widespread rolling power outages in populated areas. Human rights defenders have long warned that these extreme conditions create a life-threatening hazard for elderly inmates and those with chronic health conditions, especially in Tunisia’s overcrowded prisons, which often suffer from poor ventilation and almost no access to cooling systems.

    Ghannouchi, a former speaker of Tunisia’s parliament and leader of the Ennahda Movement, has remained in custody since April 2023. His arrest was part of a sweeping crackdown on political opponents launched by President Kais Saied, who first consolidated unilateral power in July 2021 when he suspended parliament, dismissed the sitting government, and began ruling by executive decree—actions opposition leaders and international observers labeled a coup against Tunisia’s post-2011 democratic transition.

    Since Saied’s power grab, dozens of opposition politicians, lawyers, judges, journalists, and civil society activists have been arrested or prosecuted. International human rights organizations have described this campaign as an unprecedented attack on political pluralism and civil liberties in Tunisia. Saied has repeatedly pushed back against these criticisms, claiming Tunisia’s judiciary operates independently and that all detainees face charges for standard criminal violations, not their political beliefs. Critics of the president, however, frame the prosecutions as a deliberate effort to dismantle the independent opposition that emerged after Tunisia’s 2011 democratic revolution.

    Ghannouchi has been targeted with a cascade of overlapping prosecutions and convictions that his legal team and supporters uniformly condemn as politically motivated. Since his arrest last year, Tunisian courts have handed down multiple prison sentences in cases ranging from incitement and alleged illegal foreign financing to conspiracy against state security and terrorism-related charges. The Ennahda Movement has consistently rejected all accusations against Ghannouchi as fabricated, arguing the charges are simply a tool to criminalize peaceful political opposition to Saied’s autocratic rule.

    Maher Medhioub, a former Tunisian parliamentarian and senior aide to Ghannouchi, sounded an urgent alarm in a public Facebook post following news of the fainting incident. “Time is running out. The risk to his life is becoming increasingly serious,” Medhioub wrote. He added a broad appeal to global leaders, elected lawmakers, legal professionals, journalists, and all human rights advocates: “We call upon world leaders, parliamentarians, legal professionals, journalists, and all defenders of human dignity to give urgent attention to this humanitarian situation and to uphold the principles of justice, human dignity, and the rule of law.”

    International human rights bodies have already repeatedly called for Ghannouchi’s release. The UN Working Group on Arbitrary Detention concluded in a 2023 report that Ghannouchi’s imprisonment is arbitrary and demanded his immediate release. Leading global rights groups including Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International have also joined the criticism, accusing Saied’s government of weaponizing the national judiciary to silence political dissent. Middle East Eye, the original outlet of this reporting, confirmed it contacted Tunisia’s Ministry of Justice for comment on the incident and Ghannouchi’s condition, but received no response prior to publication.

  • Israeli press review: US-Saudi nuclear deal slammed as Netanyahu’s ‘failure’

    Israeli press review: US-Saudi nuclear deal slammed as Netanyahu’s ‘failure’

    A wave of public anger and security anxiety swept across Israel on Wednesday, triggered by early reports that the U.S. administration under former President Donald Trump had approved a landmark 30-year civilian nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia that would permit uranium enrichment on Saudi soil. The revelation immediately united political opponents across Israel’s ideological spectrum in criticism, with many targeting long-serving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over what they frame as a catastrophic failure of Israeli foreign and security policy.

    Avigdor Liberman, leader of the right-wing opposition party Yisrael Beytenu, warned that the civilian nuclear framework would inevitably pave the way for Riyadh to develop nuclear weapons, sparking a devastating nuclear arms race across the entire Middle East. He called on Israeli leaders to take an uncompromising public stance against the deal and urged immediate lobbying efforts in the U.S. Congress to block its finalization.

    Yair Golan, head of the left-wing opposition party The Democrats, issued a direct rebuke of Netanyahu, arguing that the prime minister had simultaneously failed to achieve the long-sought goal of diplomatic normalization with Saudi Arabia and cleared a path for the kingdom to build an unsupervised nuclear program. For decades, normalizing ties with Saudi Arabia has ranked among Israel’s top foreign policy priorities, a strategic push intended to reduce regional isolation and sideline negotiations with the Palestinians. Saudi Arabia has repeatedly rejected normalization progress, however, insisting it will not move forward without a lasting Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement. Golan added that Netanyahu has weakened Israel both militarily and politically, leaving the country sidelined as global powers make decisions that will shape Israeli security for generations.

    Even Benny Gantz, leader of the centrist-right Blue and White party, joined the chorus of criticism, echoing that the emerging U.S.-Saudi deal poses a direct threat to Israeli national security. He blamed Netanyahu’s far-right governing coalition for repeatedly squandering opportunities to reshape the Middle East in Israel’s favor.

    Against the backdrop of this growing nuclear security debate, Israeli President Isaac Herzog issued a rare urgent warning on Tuesday evening about threats to the integrity of the country’s upcoming 27 October national elections. Though Herzog’s role is largely ceremonial, he told the public that Israel’s internal security service Shin Bet and the Central Elections Committee had alerted him to multiple serious threats to the electoral process from both domestic and foreign actors.

    Herzog also called for an end to the vitriolic infighting that has dominated the pre-election campaign, framing the vote as a critical test of both Israeli democracy and social cohesion. Speaking ahead of Tisha B’Av, the Jewish fast day that commemorates the destruction of the First and Second Ancient Temples, Herzog drew a direct parallel between modern internal division and the historical cycles of infighting that led to the collapse of earlier Jewish self-rule. “Twice in the history of our people, we merited to establish independent rule in our land. Twice we failed,” Herzog said, urging all parties and candidates to avoid crossing rhetorical red lines and treat political rivals as opponents, not enemies. “Elections are not a civil war,” he repeated twice in his address, emphasizing the historic responsibility of all Israelis to protect the integrity of the democratic process.

    In a third development Wednesday, Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported that the country’s State Attorney’s Office will pursue criminal charges against a former senior National Security Ministry official over the illegal approval of thousands of gun licenses, following an exposé published by the outlet last year. The official, Dror Israel Avishar, who previously led the ministry’s Firearms Department, is suspected of fraud and breach of public trust. All charges are pending a pre-trial hearing.

    Avishar stepped down from his post in December 2023, shortly after Haaretz revealed that the ministry, led by far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, had distributed thousands of gun licenses in violation of existing national regulations. According to the State Attorney’s Office, after the 7 October 2023 attacks, unapproved personnel issued roughly 23,000 conditional gun permits and 15,000 final licenses as part of Ben Gvir’s push to expedite the application process. The minister appointed 82 “temporary licensing officials” drawn almost exclusively from his own political circle, and these appointees routinely ignored mandatory regulations requiring proof of completed firearms safety and shooting training before approving licenses.

    Attorneys for Avishar have stated that their client resigned not over misconduct, but because of a bitter public dispute with Ben Gvir over the minister’s push to massively expand gun access across Israel. Since the 7 October attacks, expanding gun ownership for Israeli citizens has been one of Ben Gvir’s signature policy priorities. Between October 2023 and September 2025, Haaretz reports the ministry issued roughly 200,000 new gun licenses. Before the 2023 attacks, roughly 170,000 Israelis held active gun licenses; per Ben Gvir’s own public comments, his so-called “gun reform” has pushed the total number of licensed gun owners in the country to more than 410,000. “My policy is clear: a weapon in the right hand saves lives,” Ben Gvir said in March during an announcement expanding gun license eligibility to Jewish neighborhoods in Jerusalem.

  • Why Turkey’s new opposition party is both good and bad news for Erdogan

    Why Turkey’s new opposition party is both good and bad news for Erdogan

    Turkey’s fractured main opposition bloc entered a new phase of upheaval this week, when former Republican People’s Party (CHP) chairman Ozgur Ozel announced plans to formally launch a new political force — named Yeni Parti, or New Party — on Monday, capping months of escalating internal and judicial conflict that has gutted the decades-old CHP.

    The schism traces back to the CHP’s historic victory in the 2024 Turkish local elections, where the party swept most of the country’s major urban centers and claimed the largest share of the national vote, positioning it as the most credible threat to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s long-running rule ahead of the 2028 presidential and parliamentary polls. Within months, a wave of judicial investigations targeted CHP leadership and elected officials, leading to the arrest of 26 CHP mayors on corruption charges — including Ekrem Imamoglu, the widely popular mayor of Istanbul.

    A separate legal case accused Ozel of securing the CHP chairmanship through bribery and improper lobbying. In May, a Turkish court annulled the party congress that elected Ozel, removed him from office, and reinstated former CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu as interim pending the outcome of Ozel’s appeal. Since his return, Kilicdaroglu has rejected repeated calls from party members to hold an extraordinary congress to resolve the leadership dispute, instead purging senior party officials aligned with Ozel and Imamoglu. Many Ankara-based political analysts suspect Kilicdaroglu’s reinstatement was quietly supported by Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) as part of a deliberate strategy to split the opposition. To date, the judicial pressure and internal chaos have already pushed several sitting CHP mayors to defect to the AKP.

    As the party’s power struggle intensified, Ozel opted to break away entirely, building a new movement that is expected to draw the vast majority of the CHP’s sitting lawmakers and provincial leadership. Reports indicate that 94 of the CHP’s 135 members of parliament and 74 of its 81 provincial chairs will join Ozel’s new party. A small group of Ozel-aligned officials will remain in the original CHP, however, to block Kilicdaroglu from consolidating full control over the remaining rump party.

    The split has created a complex new political calculus for Erdogan, carrying both clear short-term advantages and long-term risks for his bid to retain power in 2028. In the immediate term, the divided opposition plays directly into the AKP’s strategic goals. The opposition already lost significant momentum after months of legal pressure on the CHP, and a split into rival factions leaves no unified challenger to Erdogan. If the fractured opposition fields multiple presidential candidates, political strategists widely expect that split to enable Erdogan to win outright in the first round of voting.

    This advantage has been compounded by Erdogan’s ongoing 2024 peace process with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has pulled the pro-Kurdish Dem Party away from the broader opposition alliance, giving the government unobstructed political space to advance its corruption cases against CHP leaders. Polling also suggests that Kilicdaroglu retains very little support among the CHP’s original voter base: only 5 to 10 percent of CHP voters say they will remain with the party under his leadership. Multiple surveys indicate Ozel’s new party could capture more than 30 percent of the national vote, surpassing the AKP’s current support share — the CHP won 37 percent of the vote in the 2024 local elections.

    Still, even with this strong initial showing, the split could benefit Erdogan in parliamentary elections, where tightly contested constituencies often swing to the candidate or party with even a narrow lead. A pollster affiliated with the AKP told Middle East Eye that the new party’s initial momentum is likely to fade over time, and the AKP’s internal leadership sees Ozel as a preferable opponent to other potential challengers. Despite Ozel’s growing popularity, AKP strategists believe he would struggle to win a nationwide head-to-head contest against Erdogan. With Kilicdaroglu also expected to field his own presidential candidate, the opposition vote will be further fragmented, easing Erdogan’s path to victory.

    One major wild card in the current political equation is Mansur Yavas, the popular incumbent mayor of Ankara. Multiple independent polls consistently show Yavas leading Erdogan by 15 to 20 percentage points, making him the opposition’s strongest potential presidential candidate. Yavas has thus far signaled he intends to remain in the CHP, but Ozel-aligned officials privately warn that Yavas could face his own corruption investigations if he solidifies his position as the leading opposition challenger. Erdogan’s current approval rating sits between 35 and 40 percent, but polling analysts note he could push that figure close to 50 percent through a well-executed populist campaign ahead of 2028.

    Despite these short-term gains for the ruling party, the emergence of Ozel’s new party carries significant long-term risks for Erdogan and the AKP. For decades, Erdogan built successful election campaigns by framing the CHP as an elitist, bureaucratic, statist movement disconnected from ordinary Turkish voters, tying it to unpopular historical policies such as the university headscarf ban. That messaging has resonated deeply with conservative and Islamist constituencies for decades. Ozel’s new party carries none of the CHP’s historical baggage, leaving it free to build a cross-spectrum coalition.

    If Ozel succeeds in building a broad center-left movement that unites voters across Turkey’s political divide, while rolling out a credible policy platform focused on restoring independent institutions and repairing Turkey’s struggling economy, the new party could emerge as a formidable long-term challenger to AKP rule. A recent joint poll conducted by the IstanPol think tank and Rawest Research, which surveyed 1,985 respondents across 20 Turkish cities between July 3 and 10, found that 55.9 percent of all respondents believe the new party can succeed. Support for the project is particularly high among opposition voters: 81 percent of CHP supporters, 72 percent of Dem Party voters, and 61 percent of nationalist IYI Party voters expressed confidence in the new party. Notably, even 67 percent of voters from the AKP’s coalition partner, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), and 45 percent of AKP voters said they believe the new party can achieve full or partial success.

    Political analysts argue the new movement has an opportunity to avoid the organizational weaknesses that have long hampered the CHP, including an overcentralized structure that relies on tightly controlled local branches with little engagement with broader civil society. Kemal Buyukyuksel, an analyst at George Mason University, wrote for independent outlet Progresif that the new party should not model itself on traditional, centralized political organizations. Instead, he argued, it can function as a broad political space that incorporates elements of civil society and grassroots social movements. “Instead of being a machine that plans everything from the central office, the party can become a platform that opens up space for social initiatives emerging in different places, connects them, and gives them a common political direction,” Buyukyuksel explained.

  • Fire kills 10 members of same family in Peru, police say

    Fire kills 10 members of same family in Peru, police say

    A devastating early-morning fire has claimed the lives of 10 people from a single extended family, five of them children, in a residential neighborhood of Peru’s capital city Lima, national law enforcement officials have confirmed. General Oscar Arriola, a senior leader with the Peruvian National Police, confirmed that the inferno tore through the family’s property in Lima’s southern La Victoria District in the early hours of Wednesday local time.

    The toll of the disaster breaks down to five children between the ages of 3 and 15, four adult family members aged 29 to 72, and a 10th victim whose age has not yet been publicly released. Two additional people were hurt in the blaze, and authorities have detailed the severe destruction caused by the fire: all 10 victims’ bodies were burned beyond recognition, requiring additional forensic work to formally identify them.

    When the fire broke out at approximately 3:00 a.m. local time (8:00 a.m. GMT), 17 members of the family were inside the multi-use property. Seven of those inside were able to escape the spreading flames without fatal injury, according to reporting from Infobae news outlet.

    Investigators are now working to unpack credible leads that the fire was intentionally set, amid growing reports that the family was targeted in an extortion plot. Local reporting confirms the family operated a local mattress manufacturing business from the property and also owned a fleet of electric motorcycles. Neighbors told Peru’s official Andina News Agency that unknown attackers first set fire to the motorcycles parked outside the building. The flames quickly spread to the building itself, fueled by the large stock of flammable mattress-making materials stored on site.

    Prior to the attack, family members had reportedly received repeated threats demanding they pay illegal extortion payments to criminal groups. In the wake of the tragedy, Peruvian National Police announced it would deploy a sustained, significant security presence around the burned property to prevent further criminal activity at the site. The force also released an official statement acknowledging the national impact of the mass killing, writing, “Today, all of Peru falls silent in the face of a tragedy that plunges our nation into mourning.”

  • Moment research team gets first look at Pan Am plane wreckage after 74 years

    Moment research team gets first look at Pan Am plane wreckage after 74 years

    Seventy-four years after a catastrophic mid-flight disaster sent a historic Pan American World Airways seaplane to the bottom of the Caribbean Sea, a research team has finally succeeded in capturing the first clear views of the aircraft’s resting place. The plane, officially named the Clipper Endeavor, met its tragic end off the northern coast of Puerto Rico on April 11, 1952, when a catastrophic multi-engine failure left the aircraft unable to maintain altitude. In the decades following the crash, the exact location and condition of the wreckage remained a mystery to historians, aviation experts, and descendants of those involved in the incident. Recent advances in deep-sea mapping and underwater exploration technology allowed the research team to pinpoint the debris field and document the aircraft’s remains for the first time since it sank. The discovery offers long-awaited new insights into one of Pan Am’s lesser-known early commercial aviation accidents, opening new opportunities for historical research and preservation of the site. For communities connected to the crash, the first glimpse of the wreckage after three-quarters of a century closes a long chapter of uncertainty around the disaster.

  • UK hosting ‘discreet’ Sudan event featuring RSF and UAE representatives

    UK hosting ‘discreet’ Sudan event featuring RSF and UAE representatives

    A closed-door Sudan-focused gathering organized by the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office at the Wilton Park conference facility has sparked sharp international criticism after independent outlet Middle East Eye exposed that a senior leader from the political wing of Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) will attend the event – while the country’s internationally recognized army-backed transitional government has been excluded from the agenda.

    Multiple verified British and Sudanese sources confirm that Nasredeen Abdulbari, a top figure in the RSF-aligned Tasis political coalition, will participate in the three-day conference, which kicked off Wednesday, alongside an official delegation from the United Arab Emirates. Sources familiar with the event’s planning describe the gathering as intentionally kept “discreet,” with no public listing on Wilton Park’s official event schedule, a departure from the facility’s standard transparency practices for most of its dialogues.

    The controversial invitation to the RSF representative and UAE delegates follows damning recent testimony to a UK parliamentary committee from Nathaniel Raymond, executive director of Yale University’s Humanitarian Research Lab. Raymond publicly accused the UK government of prioritizing its close strategic and economic ties with the UAE over taking meaningful action to halt widespread atrocities in Sudan’s ongoing civil conflict.

    Sudan has been locked in a brutal civil war since April 2023, pitting the RSF paramilitary group against the country’s formal Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). The RSF, which the United Nations, United States and multiple independent human rights bodies have formally accused of perpetrating genocide in Sudan’s Darfur region, has long been documented receiving military and political backing from the UAE – a claim the UAE has repeatedly denied despite growing open source evidence. The SAF, by contrast, receives external support from Egypt and Turkey.

    In a striking contradiction of the UK’s public posture on the Sudan conflict, British officials joined a joint statement with other European nations in June 2024 that openly condemned RSF atrocities, specifically referencing the group’s October 2023 seizure of el-Fasher, the capital of North Darfur. The statement noted that UN assessments found the violence carried out during that assault carried “the hallmarks of genocide,” with witness accounts collected by Middle East Eye confirming systemic rape, summary executions, and extortion of civilian populations by RSF fighters.

    Beyond Abdulbari and the UAE delegation, Wilton Park officials have confirmed that representatives from several other Gulf states will also take part in the closed conference. Founded in the aftermath of World War II to foster open democratic dialogue between global stakeholders, Wilton Park brands itself as the UK’s “foremost multilateral facilitator” and acts as an official expert body for the UK government to convene sensitive international policy discussions.

    When reached by Middle East Eye for clarification on attendee lists and the purpose of the confidential gathering, the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office declined to issue any comment. A senior foreign office source, speaking on condition of anonymity, only confirmed that the event was proceeding as planned, and a Wilton Park staff member also verified that the conference was scheduled and underway at the facility’s Wiston House estate in West Sussex.

    The exclusion of Sudan’s official Transitional Sovereignty Council has drawn fierce condemnation from the Sudanese government. Amgad Fareid Eltayeb, a senior adviser to the council, slammed the UK’s decision as inconsistent with its public rhetoric around human rights and accountability in Sudan.

    “We saw a lot of statements from the US and UK governments showing concern about what the RSF would do if they took el-Fasher. It’s the same rhetoric we still hear, the same talk… But while the British government is echoing concern about possible crimes committed by the RSF, a possible genocide committed by the RSF, they have invited RSF affiliates to England to discuss the future of Sudan,” Eltayeb told Middle East Eye.

    “Anything that needs to be discreet is hiding something that makes it necessary for it to be discreet. The UAE’s support for the RSF has been documented even by their own parliament, and so we have very little confidence or trust in what the British government is trying to do discreetly,” he added.

    Critics have also pointed to deep economic ties between the UK and UAE that may inform the UK’s approach to the Sudan conflict. Official trade data shows the UK has exported £422 million ($565 million) worth of arms to the UAE over the past three years, and independent open source investigations have already confirmed British-made military equipment originating from the UAE has been recovered from RSF fighters on Sudan battlefields.

    For Eltayeb, this creates an unmistakable pattern of contradictory behavior: “We can see a pattern of complicity here. They issue statements of concern about the RSF possibly committing genocide, then invite their leadership to discuss the future of Sudan.”

    A veteran British policy expert with decades of experience working on Sudanese peace negotiations, who spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid professional repercussions, called the exclusion of key Sudanese stakeholders from the conference “fairly outrageous.” The expert noted that many longstanding Sudanese peace advocates and experienced negotiators were not only uninvited but completely unaware the conference was being organized.

    The controversial gathering comes just 48 hours after former Labour Party leader Ed Miliband was appointed as the UK’s new foreign secretary in Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s new cabinet. Notably, Miliband did not mention Sudan or its ongoing civil war in his opening public address after taking office, as the new UK government has prioritized other pressing foreign policy issues including the war in Ukraine, rising tensions with Iran, and the ongoing conflict in Gaza. Miliband’s brother, David Miliband, currently serves as CEO of the International Rescue Committee, a major humanitarian organization operating in Sudan.

    Diplomatic sources, however, tell Middle East Eye that some Sudanese and international stakeholders hold tentative hope that Miliband will take a harder stance against the UAE’s role in fueling the Sudan conflict, which the UN has classified as the world’s worst current humanitarian crisis. More than a year into the war, official estimates place the death toll at hundreds of thousands, and over 14 million Sudanese have been displaced from their homes.

  • Iran war: What is Pickaxe Mountain and why does Trump want to attack it?

    Iran war: What is Pickaxe Mountain and why does Trump want to attack it?

    Escalating tensions in the Middle East have taken a sharp turn as former U.S. President Donald Trump has publicly threatened a forthcoming military strike on Pickaxe Mountain, a heavily fortified underground nuclear facility that lies at the heart of fresh Israeli claims about Iran’s contested nuclear program. Speaking on Tuesday, amid ongoing U.S. military operations targeting Iranian assets, Trump stated bluntly: “We’ll be hitting that area very probably pretty soon. And there’s not a thing they can do about it.”

    In response to the threat, Tehran has issued a stern warning that any attack on its sovereign nuclear facilities will trigger a broadening of the ongoing regional conflict, raising fears of a wider war that could engulf the entire Middle East. The core of the current dispute centers on Israeli allegations that Iran relocated enriched uranium stocks and advanced centrifuges to the Pickaxe Mountain facility after earlier joint U.S.-Israeli strikes damaged other key Iranian nuclear sites. Notably, Israel has yet to release any verifiable evidence to support these claims, and Trump himself has openly acknowledged that U.S. intelligence agencies cannot confirm Jerusalem’s assertion.

    Located just 1.6 kilometers south of the Natanz uranium enrichment complex in central Iran – a site that was heavily bombed by U.S. and Israeli forces in June 2025 – Pickaxe Mountain is purpose-built to withstand military attack. Carved at least 100 meters beneath the surface of Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La, a mountain named for the Persian word for “pickaxe”, the facility is nearly impervious to conventional air strikes and would pose enormous challenges to any ground incursion. Construction of the site first began in 2020, following a damaging explosion at a centrifuge assembly workshop within the original Natanz complex. Iran formally notified the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that the facility was intended to manufacture centrifuges for uranium enrichment operations.

    Analysis of satellite imagery conducted by the Institute for Science and International Security reveals an extensive network of tunnels, a broad heavily guarded security perimeter, and blast-resistant concrete-reinforced entrances designed to survive heavy air bombardment. As of current reporting, construction work remains ongoing, and no public evidence has emerged to confirm that the complex has begun full operations. Satellite imagery captured by Vantor on June 21, 2026, shows visible vehicle activity at the western entrance of the tunnel complex, confirming that work at the site has accelerated dramatically in the year following the June 2025 U.S.-Israeli attacks on Natanz and other Iranian nuclear sites.

    The Center for Strategic and International Studies has outlined two leading explanations for the increased activity at Pickaxe Mountain: Iran may be accelerating completion of the declared centrifuge assembly plant it initially announced, or it has simply moved critical nuclear operations to the secured underground site after other facilities were damaged in the earlier bombings.

    A key unresolved question hangs over the fact that the U.S. and Israel chose not to target Pickaxe Mountain during their 12-day offensive against Iranian nuclear infrastructure in 2025, raising doubts about the site’s purported strategic importance to Iran’s program at that time. During that earlier campaign, Israel first struck Iran’s core nuclear sites at Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow, killing multiple civilian Iranian nuclear scientists, before the U.S. joined the conflict, launching heavier bombing raids on the same three targets. Trump initially claimed the attacks had completely “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear capabilities, but subsequent assessments from U.S. and United Nations experts found that while the strikes caused extensive damage, significant portions of Iran’s nuclear program survived.

    Since the 2025 offensive, Washington and Jerusalem have focused intense pressure on Iran over its existing stockpile of nearly 450 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, demanding that Tehran either surrender the material or permanently dispose of it. When pressed by reporters on whether Iran had indeed moved advanced centrifuges to Pickaxe Mountain, Trump contradicted Israel’s unsubstantiated claims, admitting: “We don’t have it on record.”

    Iran has repeatedly denied conducting any undeclared nuclear activities at the Pickaxe Mountain site. The Iranian government maintains that its entire nuclear program is oriented toward peaceful civilian energy goals, and says it plans to expand its nuclear power fleet to meet growing domestic electricity demand, freeing up more of its oil reserves for export to global markets. The latest threat of a new strike has sent shockwaves through the international community, with experts warning that further escalation could have catastrophic consequences for global energy security and regional stability.

  • Houthis ‘Gate of Tears’ threat deepens global inflation grief

    Houthis ‘Gate of Tears’ threat deepens global inflation grief

    On July 20, Iran-aligned Houthi rebels based in Yemen delivered a provocative announcement that has sharpened tensions in the broader Middle East standoff: the group intends to enforce a full maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia, targeting all Saudi-flagged commercial vessels passing through the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Known colloquially as the “Gate of Tears” from its Arabic translation, this narrow waterway sits between northeastern Yemen and southwestern Djibouti and Eritrea, forming a critical chokepoint that links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Combined with the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, it creates one of the world’s most essential maritime trade arteries, connecting manufacturing and consumer markets across Europe, Asia, and the Pacific. Annually, 10 to 12 percent of all global maritime trade transits this route, making any disruption to traffic here a matter of international economic concern.

    This latest escalation comes at a uniquely vulnerable moment for Saudi Arabia’s energy exports. For months, ongoing security disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—another major global chokepoint that traditionally carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s total oil and gas shipments—have pushed Riyadh to shift the bulk of its crude exports to the Red Sea corridor as a strategic alternative. Earlier this year, the kingdom completed maintenance work to restore full operating capacity to its east-west oil pipeline, which connects the major Abqaiq oil processing hub in eastern Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Current data indicates that more than 70 percent of Saudi Arabia’s total crude oil exports now move through Yanbu, making the kingdom heavily reliant on safe passage through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

    In an official response issued shortly after the Houthi announcement, Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry issued its strongest possible condemnation of the threats, confirming that the kingdom would deploy all necessary defensive and security measures to protect its commercial shipping traffic. However, analysts note that it remains unclear whether these measures will be sufficient to prevent disruptions. Historical precedent in the region shows that even unfulfilled threats of attack can significantly disrupt shipping activity, drive up operational costs, and delay cargo deliveries.

    At present, the Houthi embargo is limited exclusively to Saudi-registered vessels, rather than a full closure of the strait to all international traffic. But should the conflict escalate and the blockade be expanded to include ships from other nations, the impact would reverberate across global supply chains for everything from consumer electronics and manufactured goods to retail products and industrial machinery. For carriers that choose to avoid the Red Sea entirely, the only alternative route is a lengthy detour around South Africa’s Cape of Good Hope—a path that adds thousands of nautical miles to voyages, sharply increasing fuel costs and transit times.

    Beyond trade delays, the announcement has already triggered a sharp rise in marine insurance premiums for vessels transiting the Red Sea. Already, insurance costs for the Strait of Hormuz have surged to between 3 and 10 percent of a vessel’s hull value since regional tensions began escalating, adding millions of dollars in extra costs for single voyages. Industry reports confirm that Red Sea insurance rates have begun climbing in the wake of the Houthi announcement. These increased operational costs are almost always passed downstream to end consumers, adding new inflationary pressure to already strained global economies that are still recovering from multiple recent supply chain shocks.

    As of yet, there is no clarity on how effective the Houthi blockade will prove to be, nor whether the situation will escalate further in the coming weeks. For governments and businesses worldwide, the new threat has dashed early hopes that regional conflict-related economic disruptions would ease in the near term. Sanjoy Paul, associate professor of operations and supply chain management at the University of Technology Sydney’s Business School, notes that both public and private stakeholders need to continue strengthening supply chain resilience, evaluate long-term alternative shipping routes and sourcing options for critical commodities including crude oil. In the long term, Paul argues, the incident also underscores the urgent need to reduce global reliance on fossil fuels and accelerate the transition to renewable energy for transportation, logistics, and manufacturing sectors.

  • Teenager drops social media addiction lawsuit against Meta

    Teenager drops social media addiction lawsuit against Meta

    Growing public concern over the negative mental health impacts of social media use among adolescents has put major technology platforms under unprecedented legal scrutiny, with thousands of lawsuits across the United States alleging big tech knowingly designed harmful, addictive features that harm young users. The latest development in this wave of litigation sees a 15-year-old Florida plaintiff, identified only by the initials R.K.C., moving to dismiss his lawsuit against Meta, the parent company of Instagram, just one week before his case was scheduled to be heard by a Los Angeles jury.

    R.K.C.’s legal action against Meta was part of a broader set of claims against the world’s largest social media platforms, and the teen has already reached confidential settlements with TikTok, Snapchat, and YouTube in recent weeks. All four platforms are named in a sweeping multi-plaintiff lawsuit accusing them of building algorithmic features intentionally designed to hook young users and trigger compulsive, addictive use.

    In R.K.C.’s original filing, he argued that ubiquitous platform features including infinite scroll and automatic content autoplay drove unhealthy constant usage that developed into a clinical addiction. The teen claimed this addiction caused a range of harmful health outcomes, including chronic anxiety and severe sleep deprivation, disrupting his daily functioning and long-term wellbeing.

    This upcoming Los Angeles trial was not the first time Meta and YouTube have faced jury judgment over these claims. In an earlier landmark case, a jury found both companies legally liable for contributing to the mental health harm of a young female plaintiff, ordering the firms to pay $6 million in damages. That verdict marked the first time any social media platform was held legally responsible for youth mental health harms resulting from platform use. Both Meta and YouTube have since appealed that ruling, which remains pending.

    Meta’s communications team has framed the dismissal of R.K.C.’s suit as a victory, noting that the teen received no financial settlement for dropping the claim. A Meta spokesperson told the BBC that the original allegations against the company were never legally or factually valid, and that the outcome confirms the company will vigorously defend itself against what it calls baseless litigation targeting its platforms.

    R.K.C.’s legal team, however, framed the decision to drop the case as a successful step toward advancing accountability for big tech. In a statement to the BBC, attorneys Emily Jeffcott and Rahul Ravipudi said their client entered the legal process with two core goals: to hold social media companies responsible for their harmful design choices, and to push for industry changes that would better protect vulnerable young users like himself. The firm emphasized that R.K.C. achieved those goals through his participation in the litigation.

    The attorneys added that lengthy jury proceedings would have required weeks of extended court time, a burden R.K.C. was not prepared to carry as he prioritizes his recovery. They noted the teen is ready to close this chapter of his life, focus on ongoing mental health therapy, and work toward rebuilding a healthy, normal adolescent life.

    The R.K.C. case is just one of hundreds of similar addiction and harm lawsuits currently being managed by the Los Angeles Superior Court, as courts work through a massive backlog of claims against big tech. Court officials have selected a small number of test cases to proceed to trial to set legal precedent for the larger pool of claims, with the next trial scheduled to begin this coming October. Nationwide, thousands of individual and institutional lawsuits have been filed against Meta and other leading social media companies over harms to children and adolescents.

    In recent months, Meta has already faced major legal and financial consequences over these allegations. Just two months ago, the company reached a confidential settlement with a U.S. school district that sued over the negative impact of social media on student wellness, which forced districts to incur extra costs to address student mental health and behavioral issues. The district had originally sought $60 million in damages. That settlement came shortly after a New Mexico judge ordered Meta to pay $375 million in penalties for misleading parents and users about how safe its platforms are for children and teens.