Over the course of his decades-long leadership, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has demonstrated formidable strategic skill in rebuilding Turkish influence across territories that once formed the core of the Ottoman Empire. What makes this expansion even more striking is that Ankara has achieved these gains with a gross national product far smaller than that of traditional European regional powers like Italy, outpacing Rome in influence across several key theaters.
Today, Turkey has effectively replaced Italy as the primary external power in Libya’s Tripolitania region, gaining a critical foothold that lets it share control over the strategic Sicilian Channel. It has also cemented its position in Somalia, and extended its sway across the majority-Muslim “green backbone” of the Balkans, a central geographic corridor for the entire region. These shifts have sparked sharp comparisons: either Turkish statecraft is extraordinarily effective, or Italian foreign policy has squandered its resources to little gain.
But Erdogan’s string of diplomatic successes has now set the stage for new, unforeseen challenges, rooted in the landmark strategic treaty Ankara concluded recently in Jeddah alongside Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. This new alliance opens unprecedented possibilities for reshaping the power dynamics of the broader Middle East. Militarily, it unites Pakistan — the world’s only officially recognized nuclear-armed Islamic state — with Turkey, a country that boasts NATO’s second-largest land army and a cutting-edge defense industry that pioneered modern drone warfare. Economically, Saudi Arabia’s massive energy wealth gives the bloc the capacity to fund even the most costly defense innovations and sustain long-term strategic conflicts.
This concentrated alignment of major Islamic powers has immediately raised alarms in Israel, particularly because Erdogan has positioned himself as one of the most vocal global champions of Palestinian statehood. Just days after signing the Jeddah agreement, Erdogan launched international legal proceedings against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, cementing the perception of the new bloc as a direct strategic threat to Jerusalem.
The alliance also threatens to disrupt the long-running movement toward an Arab resurgence, often referred to as the Arab Risorgimento. This movement grew out of the uprisings that swept the Middle East and North Africa decades ago, rooted in a century-old vision first outlined by T.E. Lawrence in *The Seven Pillars of Wisdom*: the unification of the entire Arab Sunni world under a single political banner. Originally, this project was explicitly anti-Ottoman, as the Ottoman Empire controlled the vast majority of Arab lands for centuries.
It is no coincidence, then, that Egypt — the Arab world’s most populous state, home to roughly half of the global Sunni Arab population and the de facto leader of the Arab League — has refused to join the Jeddah Pact. Cairo is widely believed to be advancing its own competing regional projects that clash with the goals of the new three-party alliance.
Shia Iran has also reacted with immediate hostility to the agreement. Tehran views Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey as too closely aligned with the United States to trust their stated intentions, and has spent years building its own regional influence during its long-standing standoff with Washington and Jerusalem. Iran now holds sway over multiple smaller regional states and maintains deep ties to the Muslim Brotherhood and its affiliated movements across the Middle East.
These competing blocs have created a tangible risk of a deep split within the global Sunni world. One camp would center on Turkey, driven by Erdogan’s ambition to restore a sphere of influence matching the Ottoman Empire’s historic reach. The other would likely be led by Egypt or factions aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood, focused on advancing the century-old goal of a unified Arab Sunni state.
For Israel, this shifting landscape carries unambiguous negative implications. Israel’s strategic perimeter has expanded far beyond its traditional borders, creating new vulnerabilities that will grow increasingly difficult to defend. The country now faces a bloc of three hostile mid-sized powers, all poised to challenge the regional order that Jerusalem has sought to impose at the first available opportunity.
This analysis is by Giuseppe Cucchi, a retired lieutenant general and former military adviser to Italian prime ministers Romano Prodi and Massimo D’Alema, originally published by the Appia Institute and republished with permission.









