GENEVA, SWITZERLAND — In a tentative breakthrough that offers a glimmer of relief for strained global energy markets, the United States and Iran have reached an initial agreement Monday to extend their fragile existing ceasefire and reopen the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important oil chokepoint. The path to a permanent end to the ongoing regional conflict, however, remains littered with substantial, potentially deal-breaking obstacles, most notably Israel’s refusal to end its offensive in Lebanon and withdraw from occupied Lebanese territory.
Details of the framework agreement have not been released to the public, and all sides have confirmed the deal will not go into effect until a formal signing ceremony, scheduled for this Friday in Geneva under the mediation of Pakistan. Preparatory closed-door talks between US and Iranian diplomatic teams will kick off this week in Doha, Qatar, a senior diplomat with direct knowledge of the negotiations told the Associated Press on condition of anonymity.
Even if the strait — through which roughly 20% of the world’s daily oil and natural gas shipments flowed before the conflict — opens as planned on Friday, energy analysts warn the global energy crisis triggered by its near-total closure will take months to abate, as shipping firms and energy producers work to rebuild disrupted supply chains and restore pre-conflict operational capacity.
The current conflict traces its roots back to 2018, when then-President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew the United States from the multinational Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the landmark nuclear agreement that had placed strict limits on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. The withdrawal sparked years of escalating tensions that eventually erupted into open war on February 28, when the US and Israel launched joint military operations against Iran. The conflict has killed thousands across the Middle East, including top Iranian clerical leaders, and driven sharp spikes in global fuel, food and commodity prices that have impacted consumers far beyond the region.
One of the biggest threats to the deal’s survival is Israel’s unyielding stance on its military campaign in Lebanon, where Israeli forces have been battling Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants. Israel joined the US in the war but is not a signatory to the new ceasefire agreement. On Monday, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced the country would maintain permanent military control over the roughly 1,000 square kilometers of territory it has seized in Lebanon, Gaza and Syria over the past two and a half years, vowing to stay “indefinitely.”
A spokesman for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office reaffirmed that Israel will continue all military operations necessary to defend its national security against what it frames as ongoing threats from Hezbollah and other Iranian-aligned groups. The spokesman added that Israel remains fully aligned with the US on preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, but will not be bound by the terms of the US-Iran agreement.
Iran has publicly insisted that any comprehensive peace deal must include an immediate end to all hostilities in Lebanon. Israeli officials have already rejected that demand, raising serious questions about whether the preliminary agreement can survive. An Israeli airstrike on Beirut’s southern suburbs just one day before the deal was announced nearly derailed the negotiations entirely, and cross-border exchanges of fire have continued in the weeks since the last temporary ceasefire took effect.
Hezbollah, for its part, issued its first public response to the deal Monday calling it a “major achievement” for Iran that could eventually lead to the full liberation of Lebanese territory, the return of displaced residents and prisoners, and the reconstruction of war-devastated border areas. The group, however, rejected any return to the status quo that existed before the latest conflict, when a nominal ceasefire was in place but Israel continued regular targeted strikes on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon. It also criticized the Lebanese government’s past efforts at US-mediated direct negotiations with Israel that failed to deliver on the ground, calling on officials to abandon “illusions and losing bets.”
Beyond the Lebanon impasse, the agreement also faces major unresolved challenges on the nuclear issue that sparked the original tensions. The deal only gives the two sides 60 days to reach a permanent agreement on the future of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium and its overall nuclear program. The US and Israel have long alleged Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapons capability, a claim Iran has repeatedly denied, saying its nuclear program is entirely for peaceful energy and medical purposes. Negotiators note it took years of diplomacy to reach the 2015 JCPOA agreement, making a final deal in just two months an extremely high bar.
Early in the conflict, Iranian attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz brought traffic through the waterway to a near standstill, prompting the Trump administration to implement a full blockade of Iranian ports in response. The closure of the strait, combined with Iranian strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure and the US blockade, sent global fuel prices skyrocketing and sent ripple effects through every sector of the global economy, pushing inflation higher in almost every country worldwide.
Trump, who is facing growing political pressure to end the conflict ahead of November’s congressional midterm elections, initially hailed the preliminary agreement on social media, saying he had authorized the immediate opening of the strait and an end to the blockade. He later corrected his statement to confirm the strait would not open until the formal signing on Friday. Iran’s deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi confirmed the agreement on Iranian state television Monday, saying Iran would not begin implementation until the deal is formally signed.
Despite the significant uncertainties surrounding the deal, world leaders have broadly welcomed the preliminary breakthrough. French President Emmanuel Macron, who is hosting Trump and other G7 leaders at a summit this week, said France and other Western partners are “ready to take action very quickly” to help restore safe shipping through the strait once the agreement enters into force, noting that France already has substantial military assets in the region, including its nuclear-powered aircraft carrier the Charles de Gaulle. China and other global powers have also issued statements welcoming the step toward de-escalation. Other European leaders have struck a more cautious note, however, with Luxembourg’s Foreign Minister Xavier Bettel noting “It’s a long time till Friday,” a reference to the multiple hurdles that remain before the deal can be implemented.
The Associated Press contributed reporting from Athens, Islamabad, Washington, Jerusalem, Beirut, Doha, Tel Aviv and Evian-les-Bains.