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Iranian military and political leadership is undertaking extensive preparations for a potential internal civil war, anticipating that the United States and Israel will seek to instigate domestic unrest through separatist groups, according to internal sources within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). These preparations, initiated after a intense 12-day conflict in June, represent a strategic shift in how Tehran plans to defend its territorial integrity.

Senior security officials concluded that future warfare would likely mirror strategies employed in Iraq and Syria, where external powers leveraged internal divisions. Consequently, Iran’s conventional army and the IRGC have been granted expanded autonomous operational authority across western, southwestern, and southeastern provinces. This decentralization is designed to ensure military units can continue operations even if communication with central command in Tehran is severed.

The Kurdish regions, particularly the provinces of Kurdistan, East Azerbaijan, and West Azerbaijan, have become a focal point for this new strategy. Iranian authorities anticipate that US and Israeli intelligence will empower Iranian Kurdish armed groups based in Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region to launch attacks. In response, Iran has staged military exercises that are, in reality, the phased deployment of additional ground forces to these sensitive border areas since September.

The threat is not confined to the northwest. The oil-rich, Arab-majority province of Khuzestan in the southwest has also seen its military command granted expanded powers to counter the separatist Ahwaziyya armed group. Similarly, Sistan and Baluchestan province in the southeast, a key narcotics trafficking route and Iran’s poorest region, is considered highly vulnerable to attacks from ethnic armed groups.

The efficacy of this new preparedness was demonstrated in the rapid Iranian retaliatory strikes following recent attacks; retaliation was launched within an hour, a significant reduction from the 12-hour response time seen in the June conflict. IRGC sources revealed that missile unit commanders were pre-briefed on targets and authorized to act independently without awaiting orders.

Concurrently, a massive domestic mobilization is underway. The Basij paramilitary force, boasting a nominal membership of 19 million with one million active members, has been granted extensive new powers for urban warfare. These plain-clothed forces, now visibly armed with Kalashnikov rifles and manning checkpoints in major cities like Tehran and Isfahan, are tasked with maintaining order amid attacks that have targeted police infrastructure, diminishing their capacity. This mobilization was publicly endorsed by reformist figure Hassan Khomeini, who called for government supporters to gather in mosques and city squares, invoking historical symbolism of a ‘black-clothes’ uprising, to form resilient strongholds against potential chaos.

The Israeli military has issued immediate evacuation directives for residents in Beirut’s southern suburbs, specifically targeting the Dahiyeh area, warning of imminent attacks for non-compliance. Military spokesperson Avichay Adraee communicated via social media platform X that movement southward would endanger lives, shortly before Lebanese media confirmed strikes hitting the Ghobeiry and Haret Hreik neighborhoods, though initial casualty reports remained unconfirmed.

Accompanying the warnings, the Israeli military disseminated detailed maps outlining specific evacuation routes. Residents of Bourj Brajineh and al-Hadath were instructed to flee east towards Mount Lebanon, while those in Harat Hreik and Shiyah were directed north toward Tripoli and east via the Metn Expressway.

This densely populated district, a known stronghold of Hezbollah support, has endured the fiercest Israeli assaults since the recent escalation of air and ground operations. A strike on Wednesday inflicted substantial damage to Bahman Hospital in Haret Hreik, wounding several healthcare personnel according to the Lebanese health ministry.

The current evacuation mandate follows a broader Israeli directive for all Lebanese citizens south of the Litani River to relocate northward, a move covering hundreds of square kilometers and displacing over 300,000 people. Human Rights Watch has expressed grave concern, stating this forced displacement raises significant risks of violations under international humanitarian law.

Concurrently, Lebanese state media reported Israeli forces making their deepest incursion since hostilities began, entering the southern town of Khiam approximately six kilometers from the border. This ground advance aligns with Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz’s recent authorization for military operations to capture additional positions in southern Lebanon, where Israeli forces have maintained a presence since the 2024 conflict with Hezbollah.

The escalation traces to Monday, when Hezbollah launched rockets into Israel, an act it stated was retaliation for the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a strike days prior. This marked a significant expansion of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran into Lebanese territory. The Lebanese health ministry reports at least 77 fatalities and 572 injuries in the renewed offensive. Israeli media indicates the government approved this new wave of attacks Sunday night, preceding Hezbollah’s rocket fire, with sources suggesting the group preemptively acted upon intelligence of an impending major Israeli decision against it.

In a significant regional escalation, Iranian drones have targeted the passenger terminal of an airport in Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan region near the Iranian border. The Azerbaijani foreign ministry confirmed the attack and announced plans for “retaliatory measures,” marking the first instance of the Israeli-US conflict with Iran spilling over into its northern neighbor.

Azerbaijani media reported additional drone incidents across various locations, though specific damage assessments remain unclear. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi swiftly denied targeting neighboring countries, calling for a thorough investigation into the incident. He notably stated that only countries hosting military bases of Iran’s enemies would be targeted—a veiled reference to Azerbaijan’s close military relationship with Israel.

In a contradictory statement, Iran’s General Staff attributed responsibility to Israel, claiming the attack was designed to falsely implicate Tehran. This development occurs amid complex demographic realities: Iran itself hosts a larger ethnic Azerbaijani population than Azerbaijan, with its West Azerbaijan province sharing a direct border.

The attack follows intensified strikes by Israel and the US against Iranian targets beginning last Saturday, which have triggered mass crossings from Iran into Azerbaijan through the Astara border. Azerbaijan maintains particularly strong military ties with Israel, which supplied combat drones and hardware used in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Meanwhile, Iran has responded to Western attacks by targeting US bases across multiple regional states including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Qatar. An anonymous Iranian foreign ministry official told Middle East Eye that Israel was behind several drone strikes against Saudi Arabia and at least one attack on Oman, though specific attribution remains contested.

This incident exacerbates existing tensions between Baku and Tehran, compounded by calls from some Azerbaijani nationalists for unification with Iran’s Western Azerbaijan province—ambitions the government has officially denied while maintaining generally cordial relations.

A sophisticated drone attack on Britain’s Royal Air Force base at Akrotiri, Cyprus, has been attributed to pro-Iranian militia groups rather than direct Iranian military action, according to the UK Ministry of Defence. The Shahed-type drone successfully circumvented advanced detection systems by employing low-altitude, slow-speed flight tactics before striking a hangar housing American U-2 spy aircraft on Sunday.

The aerial weapon detonated upon impact, creating a fireball at the facility, though officials confirmed no casualties occurred and critical equipment remained undamaged. Defence intelligence analysis determined the drone’s operational characteristics eliminated Iran itself as the launch point, pointing instead toward militia operations originating from Lebanon or western Iraq. However, investigators have been unable to definitively establish the precise launch location or identify the specific responsible actors.

The incident has triggered significant diplomatic tensions between the UK and Cypriot governments. Cypriot authorities expressed strong criticism regarding Britain’s failure to intercept the incoming drone or provide timely warnings to local communities. The Cypriot high commissioner to the UK conveyed public anxiety, stating citizens feel ‘disappointed and scared’ by the security lapse.

In response to escalating regional tensions, France and Greece have deployed military reinforcements including F-16 fighter jets and anti-drone systems to Cyprus. The UK has additionally dispatched a Royal Navy destroyer to the region, scheduled to arrive next week. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has clarified that while US forces have permission to utilize UK bases for countering Iranian missile threats, the Cyprus facilities are not currently hosting American bomber operations.

A major international incident has erupted following the sinking of an Iranian warship by a US torpedo strike on Wednesday. The vessel, identified as the frigate IRIS Dena, was reportedly participating as a guest nation in the Milan 2026 multinational naval exercises, hosted by the Indian Navy, when it was targeted in international waters.

According to former Indian Foreign Secretary Kanwal Sibal, the Iranian ship’s presence in the region was directly tied to India’s invitation. ‘The Iranian ship would not be where it was if we had not invited it to take part in our Milan exercise,’ Sibal stated, emphasizing that the vessel was ‘defenceless’ under the rules of the engagement, which prohibited participating ships from carrying live ammunition.

The attack, confirmed by US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth as the first sinking of an enemy vessel by torpedo since World War II, resulted in significant casualties. Sri Lankan Foreign Minister Vijitha Herath reported approximately 32 survivors were rescued, many with serious injuries. With the ship’s capacity estimated at 180 crew members, a majority are now presumed missing or deceased.

Indian politician Supriya Shrinate publicly criticized Prime Minister Narendra Modi for his silence on the incident, noting on social media that the killed Iranian sailors ‘were our guests.’

The unprovoked strike has drawn fierce condemnation from Iranian officials. Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi denounced the action as ‘an atrocity at sea’ committed 2,000 miles from Iran’s shores and warned of impending consequences, stating, ‘Mark my words: the US will come to bitterly regret the precedent it has set.’

In a developing aftermath, a second Iranian warship carrying over 100 sailors is currently positioned near Sri Lanka’s territorial waters. Officers aboard have reportedly requested an urgent port call, fearing a similar attack, though Sri Lankan authorities have not yet granted approval.