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Three months after the United States and Israel launched a large-scale military campaign against Iran, the outcome has defied nearly all early expectations: the Islamic Republic has demonstrated far greater strategic resilience than Western military analysts predicted, and has now seized the upper hand in the conflict’s political and diplomatic landscape. This unexpected reversal of fortune, outlined by two leading war studies scholars from King’s College London, offers a stark lesson in the dynamics of asymmetric conflict between vastly mismatched military powers.

When the joint US-Israeli military operation launched in late February 2026, almost all outside observers forecast a swift collapse of the Tehran government. The conflict was lopsided from the start: Iran faced two nuclear-armed adversaries with the world’s most sophisticated military technology, and the scale of the invasion surpassed any military pressure Iran had endured in nearly a century.

For weeks, US and Israeli air and missile forces carried out relentless bombardment across Iran. Precision airstrikes and targeted assassinations eliminated top political and military leadership, including long-time supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran’s conventional air and naval forces were all but destroyed, hundreds of missile launchers and air defense systems were reduced to rubble, and the country’s internal security infrastructure suffered catastrophic damage. Thousands of tons of munitions were dropped on Iranian nuclear facilities, missile production plants, and drone manufacturing sites. While Iran quickly moved to install new leadership and mobilize its remaining military assets for a counterattack, the regime faced an undeniable existential threat in the opening weeks of the war. At that time, the idea that Iran could avoid full surrender, retain its political sovereignty, and even gain negotiating leverage against the world’s most powerful military alliance seemed impossible. Yet that is exactly what has transpired.

Jerusalem-based Middle East analyst Daniel Sobelman explains that for a weaker military power to avoid defeat in an asymmetric conflict against a far stronger adversary, it must shift the “balance of vulnerability” in its favor. That requires two core steps: preserving critical retaliatory military capabilities, and systematically exploiting the structural vulnerabilities of the opposing side. This strategic logic has long been central to Iranian military planning: Iranian officials have repeatedly emphasized that shifting the balance of vulnerability is the foundation of asymmetric deterrence and wartime strategy.

While Tehran’s pre-war deterrence posture failed to prevent the US-Israeli invasion, Iranian commanders successfully rewrote that balance over three months of sustained fighting. By inflicting unacceptable costs on the attacking coalition and exploiting unforeseen vulnerabilities, Iran not only survived the onslaught but forced the US and Israel to the negotiating table for a ceasefire.

By April, it became clear that the US and Israel could not force Iran to surrender – a goal US President Donald Trump had publicly framed as forcing Iran to “cry uncle”. The coalition failed to achieve its core objective of regime change, and it never succeeded in destroying Iran’s entire stockpile of missiles and attack drones.

Iran absorbed the devastating initial blows, but retained enough retaliatory capacity to launch consistent missile and drone strikes against Israeli population centers and US military bases across the Persian Gulf. It also targeted critical energy infrastructure in US-aligned Arab Gulf states, undermining Washington’s stated core goal of protecting its regional allies and throwing the Gulf’s reputation as a stable hub for energy production into chaos. These strikes sent a clear message to regional states: aligning with the US in this conflict creates major security risks, not protection.

Most impactfully, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping, cutting off one of the world’s most critical arteries for global oil, natural gas, and fertilizer trade. The closure triggered immediate cascading disruptions to global energy and food supplies, spreading the cost of the conflict far beyond the Middle East. Iran also forced the US, Israel, and Gulf allies to expend massive stockpiles of precision munitions – a slow-to-replenish resource that created a new critical vulnerability for the coalition to pressure.

To escalate pressure on the coalition, Iran has issued further threats to raise the economic and human cost of the conflict: it has warned it will expand attacks on energy and infrastructure targets across Israel and the Gulf, and could target critical undersea internet cables running through the Strait of Hormuz. It has also threatened to mobilize its Houthi allies in Yemen to disrupt shipping through the Bab al-Mandab Strait in the Red Sea, another critical global trade chokepoint.

It is true that the US and Israel achieved many of their stated short-term military goals: they severely degraded Iran’s nuclear program, conventional military capabilities, and domestic defense industries. But Iran successfully blocked the coalition from achieving its overarching strategic goals, and inflicted massive strategic, diplomatic, military, political, and economic costs on the US, Israel, their Gulf allies, and the global economy.

Tehran still remains at a major conventional military disadvantage, and remains vulnerable to future US and Israeli airstrikes. But as things stand today, it holds a clear upper hand at the political and strategic level. Iran has forced the Trump administration to seek an exit from the conflict, retains the ability to reclose the Strait of Hormuz at will, and can still strike critical targets across the region at any time.

Iran has also moved to revamp its Axis of Resistance network, which includes Lebanese Hezbollah and Yemeni Houthis, as a core pillar of its deterrence and wartime strategy. Tehran recently announced the creation of a new “security belt” for the alliance, and unveiled a new doctrine for a “unified resistance front” that mandates a coordinated retaliatory response from all members to any attack on any single part of the network.

Looking ahead, Tehran is expected to leverage its current perceived strategic advantage to strengthen its position both on the battlefield and in negotiations with Washington. Its goal is not just to survive the conflict, but to emerge with a stronger long-term strategic position that allows it to rebuild and expand its key retaliatory capabilities, particularly missiles and drones, while continuing to exploit the vulnerabilities of its adversaries.

A high-stakes two-day Russia-ASEAN summit has opened Wednesday in the Russian city of Kazan, where President Vladimir Putin is hosting top leaders from the 11-member Southeast Asian bloc to deepen economic, political and people-to-people ties across the partnership. This year’s gathering carries special significance, as it commemorates 35 years of formal relations between Moscow and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, a milestone that both sides have framed as a cornerstone of their evolving engagement.

ASEAN has maintained official dialogue partner status with Russia for decades, holding annual top-level meetings to align on shared priorities. This summit is tasked with advancing the existing Russia-ASEAN strategic partnership, exploring new avenues for collaboration that span trade, investment, and regional governance. Ahead of the official leadership talks, a pre-summit business forum brought together private sector representatives from both sides. In a welcome message to attendees, Putin emphasized his expectation that the forum would unlock new opportunities for expanding mutually beneficial trade, investment, and industrial cooperation, while strengthening direct, open dialogue between Russian and ASEAN business communities.

Kremlin foreign policy advisor Yuri Ushakov outlined the summit’s full agenda to reporters, noting that leaders will not only review progress on existing cooperative initiatives but also exchange candid views on pressing global and regional security challenges. A core unifying theme set to emerge from the gathering, Ushakov highlighted, is a shared commitment to building a fair, democratic multipolar global order rooted firmly in the principles of international law and the United Nations Charter. Beyond plenary discussions, the schedule includes one-on-one bilateral meetings between Putin and individual ASEAN leaders to address country-specific priorities and collaborative projects.

The ASEAN bloc includes 11 diverse member states with varied geopolitical alignments: the Philippines, which currently holds ASEAN’s annual rotating presidency, is broadly aligned with the United States, while other member states maintain deep trade and security ties with both Russia and China. Since global energy prices spiked in the wake of heightened geopolitical conflict that disrupted regional oil markets, a number of major ASEAN economies including the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam have either moved to import Russian crude oil or publicly expressed interest in expanding purchases of the commodity, underscoring the practical economic drivers shaping the bloc’s engagement with Moscow.

On a clear sunny day in southern Mongolia’s Gobi Desert, a small group of activists from the domestic advocacy group Radical Reform Movement erected a makeshift barrier across the only two-lane road leading out of the massive Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold mine, halting all copper concentrate shipments bound for global markets Wednesday. The demonstration has thrown a spotlight on long-simmering public discontent over foreign ownership of Mongolia’s vast mineral wealth, and created an unexpected disruption to a critical copper supply chain that feeds into China’s booming renewable energy and electric vehicle sectors.

Copper is a foundational material for electric vehicle batteries, wind turbines, and solar power infrastructure — industries where China holds global leadership in production and deployment. Oyu Tolgoi, located just 50 miles north of the Mongolia-China border, is projected to become the world’s fourth-largest copper mine once fully operational, holding one of the planet’s largest untapped reserves of the critical mineral. The project is a joint venture between British-Australian mining giant Rio Tinto, which controls a 66% stake, and the Mongolian government, which holds the remaining 34% share.

For decades, Mongolian public discourse has centered on inequitable distribution of mining revenue: the country counts extensive deposits of copper, gold, coal and other critical minerals, yet widespread poverty remains pervasive across much of the population. The Radical Reform Movement, the group behind the blockade, has gone as far as calling for the full expulsion of foreign investors from the country’s mining sector, while even more moderate voices within the Mongolian government are pushing to renegotiate the original operating agreement with Rio Tinto to secure a larger share of project profits for the Mongolian public.

Videos posted to Facebook by the advocacy group showed protesters gathering around the barrier, which included a tire wall and a large tree branch strung with a white banner emblazoned with red text reading “Stop Rio Tinto”, set across the road cutting through the arid Gobi landscape. As of Wednesday, it remains unclear whether the demonstration is a one-day action intended to raise awareness of the group’s demands, or the opening of an extended standoff that could trigger broader economic repercussions for both Mongolia and its key trading partner China.

According to official statements from the Oyu Tolgoi joint venture, the mine contributes roughly 9% of Mongolia’s total annual government tax revenue. The company warned that a prolonged seven-day blockade would cut into government revenue by an estimated 35 billion Mongolian Tugrik, equal to roughly $13.3 million. Following the blockade, Mongolian Prime Minister Uchral Nyam-Osor directed the country’s justice and internal affairs minister at a weekly Cabinet meeting to uphold existing law, and hold all participants accountable for unlawfully disrupting legally authorized commercial operations, according to a post on the Mongolian government’s official Facebook page.

In the sweltering, dust-scoured badlands of Pakistan’s Balochistan province – the country’s largest, poorest and most sparsely populated region – 38-year-old Mazaar (a pseudonym used to protect his identity) prepares for another deadly 350-kilometer journey across one of the hottest landscapes on Earth. His small, worn motorbike groans under the weight of five 70-liter plastic canisters holding 272 kilograms of petrol, tied precariously to its frame with frayed rope, leaving barely any space for him to sit. This is the dangerous daily reality for thousands of ordinary Baloch people who have turned to smuggling subsidized Iranian fuel into Pakistan, a trade that has surged dramatically in recent months amid escalating regional conflict tied to US-Israeli tensions with Iran.

For decades, cross-border fuel smuggling has been a quiet undercurrent of life along the 900-kilometer Iran-Pakistan border, but shifting geopolitics and economic chaos have supercharged the illicit trade. Rising tensions have disrupted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, sending global fuel prices skyrocketing. That has driven explosive demand in Pakistan for far cheaper smuggled Iranian petrol and diesel, which benefits from heavy Iranian government subsidies for domestic consumers. Today, an estimated 2.4 million of Balochistan’s 15 million residents rely on the trade for their primary income, according to a leaked Pakistani intelligence report reviewed by Nikkei Asia in 2024 – a statistic that underscores how deeply the illicit business is woven into the province’s fragile economy.

Mazaar is no organized crime kingpin; he is a former farmer driven into smuggling by crippling drought that destroyed his ability to earn a living tending crops. As the main breadwinner for his extended family, which includes his young child and several brothers, he has no other viable option for work. Temperatures in Balochistan regularly climb to 50 degrees Celsius during the hot season, turning the plastic fuel canisters soft and swollen, raising the constant risk of ruptures, leaks, catastrophic fire or even explosion. Dozens of smugglers die this way every year. Beyond the environmental and mechanical risks, the journey takes Mazaar through conflict-ridden territory where clashes between Pakistani security forces and separatist insurgents demanding greater regional autonomy have persisted for decades, with thousands of local residents having disappeared amid the violence. Even with these threats, Mazaar says he has no other choice: “We do this because we don’t have any other option. The weather is hot, the prices are high and we spend day and night on the road.”

His story is not unique. Irfan, another smuggler whose name has also been changed for his safety, turned to the trade after a childhood polio infection left him with permanent mobility impairment in one leg and one hand. Unable to access most formal work, he transports diesel instead of petrol, saying the lower risk of ignition is the only small safety concession he can make: “I can’t carry petrol because what if it catches fire? If I can’t stand up, I’ll get badly burned.”

Local economic leaders say deep-rooted systemic failure has left ordinary Baloch people with no alternative to the smuggling trade. Fida Hussain Dashti, former president of the Quetta Chamber of Commerce and Industry, notes that despite Balochistan’s vast territory and abundant mineral reserves, decades of underdevelopment have left it with poverty rates matching some of the world’s poorest regions. “Even a student who graduates with an MA degree ends up joining this oil business,” Dashti says. “People are helpless and have no other way. The Pakistani government should have done more to create employment opportunities in the region.”

The impact of the booming smuggling trade is now being felt across Pakistan’s formal economy. In May 2025, Pakistan’s five largest oil refineries sent a formal letter to the federal government warning that cross-border smuggling was accelerating and urging official intervention. Earlier this month, the Oil Companies Advisory Council, which represents Pakistan’s domestic oil industry, confirmed that official domestic fuel sales have dropped to a 27-year low for this time of year, a decline directly tied in large part to the rise of cheaper smuggled Iranian fuel. An intelligence estimate cited by Nikkei Asia puts the annual value of smuggled fuel at nearly $1 billion, a staggering hit to formal industry and government revenue.

Geopolitics has amplified the smuggling surge, according to analysts tracking illicit global markets. Paddy Ginn, a researcher with the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime, says large-scale smuggling is not just driven by desperate local workers – it is also enabled by powerful actors with ties to the Iranian government. “The main traffickers, we believe, are either part of or closely linked to IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps],” Ginn says, noting that the trade helps Iranian actors avoid US economic sanctions and capitalize on price hikes driven by regional conflict. The BBC requested comment from the Iranian government on these allegations but received no response.

For Pakistan, the issue presents a complicated policy dilemma. The country currently serves as a mediator between Iran and the United States, working toward a permanent end to hostilities, and the large-scale smuggling trade creates awkward diplomatic and political pressures. Islamabad has periodically launched crackdowns on the illicit trade, but efforts to fully eliminate it have always stalled. The remote, rugged terrain of the border region makes comprehensive policing almost impossible, and many within Pakistan’s government recognize that the trade is a critical lifeline for millions of impoverished Baloch residents who have no other source of income. Multiple smugglers told the BBC that Pakistani security officials often turn a blind eye to the trade in exchange for small bribes – a claim the Pakistani government denies, noting that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has ordered law enforcement to intensify crackdowns, with authorities seizing roughly $5 million worth of smuggled fuel over the past year.

Even for the smugglers who rely on the trade, the recent regional conflict has eroded already meager profits. Mazaar says the price he pays for smuggled petrol has jumped sharply amid the tensions, but the price he can charge to downstream sellers has remained flat. After covering fuel for his bike, food, and motorbike lease costs, his daily income has fallen from 5,000 Pakistani rupees ($13) to 3,000 rupees ($7.80) – still roughly double Pakistan’s official minimum wage, but barely enough to support his large family. “The war started and we were ruined,” he says.

As Mazaar and a group of 11 fellow motorbike smugglers set out from the Mastung open-air fuel market toward Sindh province, they are immediately hit by a brutal heat storm: a prolonged heatwave paired with blinding dust storms. When asked about the constant risk of deadly injury or death, Mazaar shrugs off the danger with a fatalism forged by poverty and lack of choice: “I don’t worry about it. I have to die one day anyway. I could die now. Who knows? That is Allah’s decision, whether he lets me live or takes my life.”