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Three months after a regional war upended daily life across the Middle East and sent shockwaves through the global economy, a potential breakthrough to extend the fragile existing ceasefire between the United States and Iran remains locked in limbo, awaiting final sign-off from President Donald Trump. Speaking to reporters Thursday, US Vice President JD Vance confirmed that negotiating teams have made significant headway on draft terms for the agreement, though final adjustments to key language are still ongoing. “It’s hard to say exactly when or if the President is going to sign the MOU,” Vance noted, adding “We’ve made a lot of progress here.”

News of the emerging framework has already shifted global market sentiment: Asian stock markets rose on Friday as optimism grew around a deal, while global crude oil prices edged lower, a welcome shift after a week of extreme volatility driven by investor speculation over the outcome of talks. A core priority of the proposed agreement is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical chokepoints for global energy trade. According to details reported by US media, the deal would mandate unrestricted, toll-free passage for commercial shipping through the strait, require Iran to clear existing mines from the waterway within a 30-day window, and see the US lift its ongoing naval blockade once commercial traffic resumes.

However, Tehran has yet to publicly confirm any of the terms under discussion, and conflicting accounts have emerged from Iranian sources. Multiple Iranian media outlets have reported that any deal unilaterally announced by the Trump administration would not be recognized by Tehran. Tasnim News Agency, Iran’s semi-official state-aligned outlet, cited a source close to Iranian negotiation teams saying the draft text has not been finalized, and that key mediator Pakistan would be notified immediately once a final agreement is reached. Diplomatic efforts have drawn involvement from multiple regional players: Qatar’s role in talks has expanded in recent days, and the Gulf nation’s state news agency confirmed late Thursday that Trump had spoken with Qatar’s ruler to discuss the latest updates on peace efforts. Doha hosted Iranian negotiating officials this week, as regional powers push for a durable resolution to the conflict that has shaken the region since fighting erupted three months ago. The current fragile bilateral ceasefire between the US and Iran has held officially since April 8, but repeated breaches have threatened to unravel the truce entirely.

Even as backroom diplomacy proceeds, both sides have traded accusations of ceasefire violations in recent days. This week, the US carried out airstrikes on the southern Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, prompting immediate retaliatory fire from Iranian forces. Iran’s state broadcaster IRIB, citing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), confirmed that Tehran targeted the US airbase that served as the origin of the American strike. While the IRGC did not publicly name the location of the base, Kuwait — which hosts thousands of US troops on its territory — reported that its air defense systems activated to intercept incoming fire. Kuwait’s foreign ministry issued a sharp condemnation of what it called “the criminal Iranian attacks that targeted the territory of the State of Kuwait with missiles and drones, in a dangerous escalation.” US Central Command labeled the Iranian retaliation an “egregious ceasefire violation.”

Further tensions persist in the Strait of Hormuz itself: IRIB reported Thursday that Iranian forces opened fire on four commercial ships attempting to transit the waterway without Tehran’s authorization, a step consistent with Iran’s total blockade of the strait implemented when the war began. US military officials confirmed their forces intercepted five Iranian attack drones in and around the strait, and disrupted a sixth drone launch attempt near Bandar Abbas. A senior US official told AFP that US military actions were “measured” and “intended to preserve the ceasefire,” but the IRGC has warned it will respond with force to any new American strikes. On Friday, Iranian state television reported that 24 commercial ships had transited the strait in the previous 24 hours under coordination with the IRGC and Iranian foreign ministry, but added a sharp warning that “ships from hostile countries face a severe response” from Iranian military forces.

Beyond the direct US-Iran front, the conflict has spilled over into Lebanon, where a separate unimplemented ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah continues to be violated on a daily basis. On Friday, Lebanon’s culture minister Ghassan Salame told AFP that Israeli forces had struck the historic medieval Beaufort Castle, a landmark overlooking the southern Lebanese city of Nabatieh. Salame added that bombings have already struck close to the ruins of Tyre, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, and warned that dozens of other cultural and heritage sites across southern Lebanon are in “serious danger.” Beaufort Castle, also known locally as Qalaat al-Chakif, was used as a military base by Israeli forces during their 22-year occupation of southern Lebanon that ended in 2000.

The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah was scheduled to take effect on April 17, but it has never been enforced, with both sides launching repeated attacks and justifying their actions as responses to the other side’s breaches. Lebanon was drawn into the broader regional war in early March, when Hezbollah launched a large rocket attack on Israel in retaliation for the killing of Iran’s supreme leader in a joint US-Israeli strike, prompting full-scale Israeli airstrikes and a ground incursion into southern Lebanon. Thursday saw a sharp escalation of Israeli operations: Israeli forces carried out intensive deadly bombardment across southern Lebanon, and expanded their offensive with the first raid near the Lebanese capital Beirut in weeks. Local authorities confirmed that a woman and two children were killed in the raid, despite the nominal ceasefire.

In an unprecedented incident that has sent shockwaves across the transatlantic alliance, a drone crashed into a residential apartment building in the Romanian city of Galati early Friday morning, leaving two people injured and triggering fierce condemnation from both NATO and the European Union. The strike, the first time a residential structure outside Ukraine has been hit since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in 2022, marks what Romanian officials call a dangerous and irresponsible escalation by Moscow.

According to official statements from Romania’s Ministry of National Defence, the incident unfolded overnight between May 28 and 29, amid a renewed wave of Russian drone attacks targeting civilian and critical infrastructure sites in Ukraine near the shared river border with Romania. “One of these drones entered Romanian airspace, was tracked by radar as far as the southern part of the city of Galati, and crashed onto the roof of an apartment building, with the impact triggering a fire,” the ministry confirmed. Local emergency services reported that a 14-year-old boy and a 53-year-old woman were hospitalized with injuries from the crash and subsequent blaze.

While dozens of unauthorized drone incursions have been detected across Romanian airspace since the start of the Russian offensive, this event marks the first time a drone has struck a residential building in the NATO member state. Immediately after the intrusion was detected, two Romanian F-16 fighter jets were scrambled to respond, but military officials confirmed there was no opportunity to safely shoot down the unmanned aircraft before impact. General Gheorghe Maxim of Romania’s Joint Forces Command told reporters that only four minutes passed between detection and crash, leaving an extraordinarily narrow window for intervention. Romanian President Nicusor Dan echoed this assessment, noting that the decision to hold fire was made to avoid putting civilian lives at greater risk from a mid-air intercept.

In the wake of the incident, Romanian officials have moved quickly to escalate their response. Bucharest summoned the Russian ambassador to Romania for an urgent meeting, and President Dan convened an emergency meeting of the country’s national defence council to address what officials described as “the most serious incident to have affected our national territory” since the 2022 invasion. The Romanian defence ministry reiterated its condemnation of the strike, confirming that the country has formally requested accelerated deliveries of dedicated anti-drone defence capabilities from allied partners.

The incident has drawn widespread condemnation from European and transatlantic leaders. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Russia’s “war of aggression” had “crossed yet another line”, and pledged to step up deterrence efforts along the European Union’s eastern flank. Senior officials from Germany, France, the United Kingdom and the United States all issued statements denouncing the strike, with US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker calling the incident a “reckless incursion” and reaffirming that Washington stands in full solidarity with its NATO ally. Maia Sandu, President of Moldova — a country sandwiched between Romania and Ukraine that has also faced repeated drone incursions and fallen debris on its territory — warned that Russia represents “a danger to all” in the region.

NATO has echoed this condemnation, with alliance Secretary General Mark Rutte vowing “absolute solidarity” with Romania after a call with President Dan. “Russia’s reckless behaviour is a danger to us all,” Rutte wrote on social media. “I affirmed that NATO stands ready to defend every inch of Allied territory.” Supreme Allied Commander General Alexus Grynkewich, the top US military commander for the alliance, held a call with his Romanian counterpart to coordinate next steps, with NATO confirming that the two sides agreed to maintain close consultation throughout the ongoing investigation and consideration of additional defensive measures.

The incident comes as NATO member states bordering Ukraine and Russia — including Romania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland — face growing risk of cross-border drone incursions from the ongoing war. Just days earlier, Latvia formed a new government two weeks after the previous administration collapsed over a political dispute rooted in stray Ukrainian drone incursions that exposed gaps in the Baltic state’s air defences.

As of Friday afternoon, multiple alliance sources confirmed there is still no indication whether Romania will request emergency consultations under NATO’s Article Four, the provision that allows member states to request discussions when they believe their territorial integrity, political independence or security is under threat. A request for Article Four consultations would still fall well short of triggering the alliance’s Article Five mutual defence clause, which has only been invoked once in NATO’s 75-year history, following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States. Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Article Four consultations have been called three times: immediately after the 2022 invasion, by Poland following a Russian drone incursion, and by Estonia after a Russian fighter jet violated its airspace.

Two weeks after Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) declared its 17th Ebola outbreak, World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus arrived in the Congolese capital Kinshasa late Thursday to coordinate international response efforts to the fast-spreading epidemic. Tedros was scheduled to meet with senior Congolese government officials on Friday, before traveling a day later than planned to the conflict-torn northeastern province of Ituri, the epicenter of the current outbreak.

The scale of the crisis already far exceeds initial reports. According to the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), at least 1,077 suspected cases have been recorded across affected regions since the outbreak was officially announced on May 15, with 246 confirmed deaths to date. The WHO has warned that the true caseload is almost certainly much higher, as the virus began spreading silently before being detected, and the DRC’s severely underfunded health system lacks the laboratory capacity to test and confirm every suspected case quickly enough to slow transmission.

Health workers have faced steep challenges in containing the outbreak, which has already spread beyond Ituri to two additional DRC provinces and crossed the border into neighboring Uganda, where seven confirmed cases and one fatality have been reported. The crisis is compounded by decades of systemic instability in eastern DRC, a mineral-rich region plagued by persistent violence from dozens of armed factions. Ituri, where the outbreak is centered, remains largely out of government control, with limited access for health teams due to attacks from the Islamic State-affiliated Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) and other local militant groups that regularly target civilian populations.

Ituri shares borders with North Kivu and South Kivu, two other violence-wracked provinces that have also recorded Ebola cases in the current outbreak. Large swathes of both Kivu provinces are controlled by the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group, which resumed its insurgency in late 2021 and escalated attacks in early 2023. The ongoing conflict has forced more than a million people in Ituri alone to flee their homes, with hundreds of thousands packed into overcrowded displacement camps on the outskirts of major towns like Bunia. Displaced residents live in extremely cramped conditions with almost no access to clean water or basic sanitation, creating a perfect environment for Ebola to spread rapidly.

At the Kingonze displacement camp outside Bunia, residents described the terrifying risk of an outbreak sweeping through the camp. “If Ebola comes, we’ll be wiped out as we’re packed like sardines,” said local resident Dorcas Mapenzi. Deborah Nzale, a widow who shares a 32-square-foot tarpaulin shelter with nine family members, added: “We sleep piled on top of each other, with everyone’s sweat. If a single person gets infected here in this camp, everyone will die.”

Complicating response efforts further, the current outbreak is caused by the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola, for which no widely approved vaccine or targeted treatment currently exists. However, there are glimmers of hope on the horizon: Africa CDC head Jean Kaseya announced Thursday that a targeted vaccine could be available for deployment by the end of 2025. The WHO also confirmed Thursday that its expert advisory groups have approved the launch of clinical trials for existing vaccine and treatment candidates that may prove effective against the Bundibugyo strain.

In response to the outbreak, neighboring Uganda and Rwanda have already closed their shared borders with the DRC. United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio also reaffirmed this week that the U.S. is implementing rigorous screening measures to prevent Ebola from reaching American soil. Speaking to reporters after his arrival in Kinshasa, Tedros struck a determined tone, telling the Congolese people in an earlier post on X that they are not facing this crisis alone: “That thing can be stopped,” he said.

Ebola is a highly contagious haemorrhagic fever that spreads through close contact with infected people or their bodily fluids. Over the past 50 years, the virus has killed more than 15,000 people across Africa. The deadliest Ebola outbreak in DRC’s history, recorded between 2018 and 2020, killed nearly 2,300 people out of more than 3,500 confirmed cases.

In the dusty sprawl of Kingonze displaced persons camp on the outskirts of Bunia, the capital of northeastern DRC’s Ituri province, more than 25,000 people uprooted by years of brutal armed conflict live in cramped, makeshift tarpaulin shelters. For these displaced residents, the threat of an Ebola outbreak reaching their overcrowded home is not an abstract risk—it is a catastrophe that could wipe out the entire community.

“If Ebola comes, we’ll be wiped out as we’re packed like sardines,” Dorcas Mapenzi, a displaced woman living in the camp, told AFP. Ituri is currently the epicenter of the latest Ebola outbreak spreading through eastern DRC, a region where decades of rebel violence and communal clashes have forced more than a million people from their homes across the province, most of whom now reside in crowded, under-resourced camps.

The deadly Bundibugyo strain of Ebola, which spreads through close physical contact and bodily fluids, has already gained a foothold in the region. From the declaration of the outbreak on May 15 through May 24, the World Health Organization (WHO) has recorded 10 confirmed deaths and 223 suspected fatalities, out of a total of more than 1,000 confirmed and suspected cases across the country. Crucially, there is currently no approved vaccine or specific treatment for this particular strain of the virus, meaning containment efforts rely entirely on basic protective measures, social distancing and rapid contact tracing—measures that are all but impossible to implement in the camp’s current conditions.

Kingonze camp has not yet recorded any Ebola cases, but every aspect of life here creates the perfect conditions for the virus to spread like wildfire. Widow Deborah Nzale shares a 3-square-meter tarpaulin shelter with nine family members, living and sleeping piled on top of one another in sweltering heat. “Given these conditions, how are we going to protect ourselves against this disease, when everyone tells us we need to distance ourselves to fight Ebola?” Nzale asked. “If a single person gets infected here in this camp, everyone will die.”

Basic hygiene and sanitation infrastructure, critical to stopping Ebola’s spread, is virtually non-existent in Kingonze. Residents say their children play next to overflowing, filthy toilets and often defecate in open ground between shelters. The camp relies on just one single borehole for its entire population of 25,000, with water only flowing from the tap for a few hours each day. To date, no protective gear, hygiene kits or soap have been distributed to the camp’s residents, even after awareness teams have visited to warn about the virus’s dangers.

“People looking to raise awareness come through here with messages but, surprisingly, we don’t have the kit we need to protect ourselves,” Budjo Amos, a displaced man who fled communal violence in the province, said. “I don’t even have soap to wash my hands. The most urgent thing is to give us clean water.”

WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, who is scheduled to visit Bunia on Friday, has already warned that eastern DRC is facing a “catastrophic collision of disease and conflict.” Ongoing fighting in the region has severely hampered outbreak response efforts, and the Congolese government has faced widespread criticism for its delayed response—officials only declared the outbreak several weeks after the first cases were detected. Most hospitals across Ituri still lack critical equipment, particularly isolation units needed to quarantine infected patients and stop transmission.

Across Ituri, there are roughly 61 displaced person camps housing a total of nearly 970,000 displaced people, meaning the risk of a catastrophic camp-wide outbreak is not limited to Kingonze. Ituri’s military governor Lieutenant General Johnny Luboya Nkashama acknowledged the urgency of the situation in comments to AFP Friday. “We need to deploy equipment and qualified, specialist medical staff as quickly as possible,” he said, “to spare this province from disaster.” As displaced residents wait for action, their fear grows that a single case could turn into a tragedy that kills thousands.