A perfect storm of diplomatic tensions, safety warnings, and operational disruptions has precipitated a dramatic collapse in Chinese tourism to Japan, with travel industry experts reporting unprecedented cancellation rates and declining visitor numbers.
The downturn began in November 2025 following controversial remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi regarding Taiwan, which sparked significant public backlash in China. This diplomatic friction coincided with multiple other concerns that have collectively diminished Chinese traveler confidence in Japan as a preferred destination.
According to Yang Jinsong, a prominent researcher at the China Tourism Academy, the decline represents a complex convergence of factors. “Beyond the bilateral relations affecting public sentiment, travelers are growing increasingly wary of Japan’s public security situation, recent seismic activity, and disease outbreaks,” Yang explained.
The aviation sector has manifested this trend through massive flight cancellations. Data from Flight Manager, an aviation analytics platform, reveals that cancellation rates for mainland China to Japan routes reached 47.2% in January 2026—a 7.8 percentage point increase from December 2025. By late January, carriers had already canceled February flights on 49 scheduled routes.
China’s three major airlines—Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines—responded to the situation by offering unprecedented flexibility. On January 27, 2026, they announced that passengers who purchased tickets before noon that day for Japan-bound flights scheduled between March 29 and October 24, 2026, would be eligible for free refunds or changes.
Official immigration statistics released by the Japanese government on January 15, 2026, quantify the impact: approximately 348,700 Chinese nationals (excluding those from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) traveled to Japan in December 2025. This represents a staggering 40% decrease from the previous year and a 35% drop from November 2025.
The safety concerns received official validation when China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a travel advisory on January 27, 2026, warning that “public security in Japan has deteriorated in recent months.” The statement highlighted increased criminal cases targeting Chinese citizens and noted that earthquakes in several regions had caused injuries, with Japanese authorities warning of potential follow-up seismic activity.
“Chinese citizens in Japan are facing serious safety threats,” the ministry declared, explicitly advising travelers to avoid visiting Japan and urging those already in the country to closely monitor security conditions along with earthquake and disaster alerts.
Adding to the concerns, Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries confirmed the country’s 18th avian influenza outbreak of the season at a poultry farm in Chiba prefecture, near Tokyo, where more than 100,000 quail were being raised.
On Chinese social media platform Xiaohongshu (RedNote), users actively debate whether Japan remains a viable destination. One user, nicknamed Xiaoyu, posted seeking advice about a planned Spring Festival hiking trip along the Kumano Kodo trail, noting, “I am preparing a ‘Plan B’ amid fears of flight cancellations and other uncontrollable risks.”
While some commenters expressed similar concerns, others reported that their December trips were largely unaffected. Industry expert Yang suggested that Chinese travelers are likely considering alternative destinations for the holiday period as uncertainty surrounding flights and safety conditions continues to influence travel decisions.
