分类: politics

  • EU and Nato vow to step up pressure on Russia after ‘new escalation’ in Germany

    EU and Nato vow to step up pressure on Russia after ‘new escalation’ in Germany

    In a sharp rebuke of escalating Russian hostile activity on European territory, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte have formally accused Moscow of growing increasingly reckless, vowing a unified, robust response to what leaders frame as a dangerous new phase of hybrid aggression.

    The confrontation was triggered by last month’s attempted drone attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport, a critical NATO logistics hub that regularly hosts Ukrainian military transport aircraft. On Tuesday, the German government confirmed that weeks of police investigations and intelligence assessments conclusively tied the incident to Russia. Three drones were recovered in and around the airport: one was safely defused by a bomb disposal robot, a second collided with a cargo plane, and a third was discovered 10 days after the 4 August incident. German Interior Ministry officials note that the drones’ design, components, explosives, and triggering mechanisms match the signature of other proven Russian hybrid operations across Europe. Authorities have also identified two suspects linked to the plot: a Belarusian national holding a Russian passport who entered Germany on a tourist visa, and a dual Latvian-Russian citizen who flew into Berlin before departing two days ahead of the attempted attack. Moscow has forcefully denied all accusations, claiming Berlin has presented no concrete evidence to support its claims.

    In its first formal response to the proven attack, Germany has announced it will shutter the Russian consulate in Bonn and close the Russian House, a prominent cultural institution in Berlin that German security agencies have long suspected of operating as an unregistered Kremlin propaganda hub. The Kremlin has hit back sharply: Russian Foreign Ministry officials have pledged a “mirror-image” retaliatory measure, while President Vladimir Putin condemned Berlin’s actions as a “serious mistake” that directly contradicts the interests of the German people. When asked whether Moscow could cut full diplomatic ties with Berlin, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko acknowledged the possibility remained on the table, but said Moscow would give diplomatic channels a chance to de-escalate first. Some German political critics have argued Berlin’s current response is overly restrained, but German officials note they are prioritizing building a coordinated multilateral response alongside European and transatlantic allies, which could include expanded EU-wide sanctions and tighter entry restrictions for Russian travelers across the 27-nation bloc.

    Speaking alongside Rutte in Brussels, von der Leyen emphasized the unprecedented nature of the incident: “Leipzig marks a new escalation on European Union soil directly attributed to Russia. We have to step up and that means being ready to respond to Russia’s recklessness faster and better.” She added that the Leipzig attack is not an isolated event, but part of a growing pattern of increasingly dangerous Russian hostile actions targeting European critical infrastructure, including repeated drone incursions and sabotage attempts. Rutte echoed the condemnation, affirming that the entire 32-member NATO alliance – including the United States – stands in full solidarity with Germany. He noted that alliance members have seen a steady rise in direct malign activity on NATO territory, ranging from arson attacks on factories manufacturing defense equipment for Ukraine to the confirmed hybrid plot in Leipzig.

    As EU and NATO leaders met in Brussels, EU foreign ministers gathered in Wicklow, Ireland, to discuss further collective measures. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot announced that European-level action could be targeting Russia’s shadow fleet of oil and cargo vessels that operates to evade existing EU sanctions. Barrot, alongside his counterparts from Belgium and the Netherlands, has already summoned the Russian ambassador in their respective capitals to formally protest the Leipzig attack. Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys pointed out a worrying trend: Moscow has calculated that it faces no meaningful political cost for its repeated hybrid operations against European allies, encouraging further escalation.

    In a separate development that adds to heightened security tensions, Germany reported multiple suspected sabotage incidents across the country in just 24 hours, including two separate attacks on electrical substations – one in eastern Germany and a second near Cologne in western Germany. While authorities have not yet attributed these attacks to any actor, Herbert Reul, Interior Minister for the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, confirmed the attack on power lines in Bergheim was deliberate, stating that the perpetrators “attacked the entire country.” Reul added that investigators are probing two leading hypotheses: foreign state-directed sabotage and attack by domestic left-wing extremist groups.

    Von der Leyen outlined the next steps for the bloc, noting that existing sanctions have already constrained Russia’s war capacity, but EU foreign ministers are currently negotiating new measures to “cut deeper into Russia’s war chest.” The EU has already approved a €90 billion loan package to support Ukraine’s government and military operations, and von der Leyen confirmed that Kyiv has requested additional billions in funding to acquire PAC-3 air defense missiles to protect civilian infrastructure from Russian missile and drone attacks. She also revealed that work is already underway on a joint European-Ukrainian anti-ballistic missile defense initiative, codenamed Project Freyja. Closing her statement, von der Leyen reaffirmed the unwavering commitment of the EU and NATO to supporting Ukraine: “Europe and NATO will not just maintain pressure on Moscow, we will increase it, and we will not stop – not until Russia stops bombing and killing innocent people in Ukraine.”

  • Lawmakers ask Army to explain why it told a military unit to stop specializing in drone warfare

    Lawmakers ask Army to explain why it told a military unit to stop specializing in drone warfare

    A cross-party coalition of U.S. legislators is pushing the U.S. Army to justify its controversial order to disband a specialized drone warfare unit based in Europe, a decision that comes amid a global shift in modern combat toward widespread reliance on uncrewed aerial systems.

    Established last November, the 600-strong 173rd Airborne Brigade’s specialized drone battalion was designed to develop custom uncrewed vehicles and refine tactics that have already reshaped 21st century warfare: the same drone-centric strategies Ukraine has deployed to devastating effect against invading Russian forces, and that Iran has used to inflict casualties on U.S. troops across the Middle East. Tasked with rapid deployment to any theater where drone capabilities were urgently needed, the unit aligned with broader U.S. military efforts to adapt to rapidly evolving battlefields.

    In a public letter shared with The Associated Press on Tuesday, the bipartisan group of four lawmakers laid out stark concerns that eliminating the specialized drone unit will curtail the U.S. military’s ability to glean critical operational insights from frontline allies, most notably Ukraine’s battle-tested armed forces. They argue the move will also slow critical efforts to modernize U.S. drone warfare tactics at the pace required to maintain competitive advantage on modern battlefields.

    The letter, addressed to outgoing Army Secretary Dan Driscoll and acting Army Chief of Staff Gen. Christopher LaNeve, requests an in-person briefing to fully unpack the reasoning behind the Army’s decision. Signatories include Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, Republican Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina, independent Senator Angus King of Maine, and Republican Representative Mike Turner of Ohio, a rare display of cross-partisan agreement on military policy.

    “This specialized unit was a prudent response in a moment when the character of warfare is changing faster than a conventional formation’s ability to adapt,” the legislators wrote in the document. They emphasized that the unit had been operational for less than a year, and they are eager to review the full data, internal analysis, and decision-making process that led to the order to shut it down. Lawmakers also want clarity on whether the decision originated from internal Army leadership or was driven by broader guidance from Pentagon brass.

    The order to refocus the 173rd Airborne Brigade back on its core airborne infantry mission was issued recently by LaNeve, who stepped into the role of acting Army chief of staff after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth abruptly removed former Army chief Gen. Randy George from his post in April without any public explanation.

    Integrating drone technology into standard Army tactical doctrine was a central policy priority for George during his tenure. Alongside Driscoll, George launched the Army Transformation Initiative last year, a wide-ranging reform plan that centered on rolling out modernized unmanned aircraft systems into standard frontline formations. George, who was appointed to the top Army role by former President Joe Biden, repeatedly emphasized the urgent need to speed development of new drone systems and get these capabilities into the hands of regular infantry soldiers, rather than restricting them to small specialized units.

    Driscoll, who announced his resignation earlier this week after 18 months in the top Army civilian role, was a close ally of George and openly supported his drone modernization agenda. Driscoll focused heavily on cutting bureaucratic red tape to allow defense contractors to accelerate drone development and deployment to frontline units. No public reason has been given for Driscoll’s departure, but multiple reports have documented ongoing tensions between Driscoll and Hegseth over policy and leadership priorities.

    “We are supportive of the transformative initiatives the Army has taken under Secretary Driscoll’s leadership in this area and would like to see that momentum maintained even as uniformed leadership changes,” the lawmakers wrote in closing.

    The original reporting for this story was contributed by Toropin from Nuremberg, Germany.

  • Rosenberg: Putin’s veiled threat to UK part of Russia’s campaign against West

    Rosenberg: Putin’s veiled threat to UK part of Russia’s campaign against West

    During a high-stakes 45-minute press conference held in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, Russian President Vladimir Putin offered a sharp, combative display of his stance on the ongoing Ukraine war and escalating tensions with the Western bloc, leaving audiences with deliberate ambiguity over potential military action against the United Kingdom and stark warnings for powers he claims seek to undermine Russia. When pressed by reporters on whether Moscow would target British military infrastructure in retaliation for London’s ongoing military support to Kyiv, Putin offered only two words in response: “That’s a secret. A military secret.”

  • Madagascar ex-Senate chief sentenced  to hard labour over deadly Gen Z protest crackdown

    Madagascar ex-Senate chief sentenced to hard labour over deadly Gen Z protest crackdown

    A little over a year after widespread youth-led protests upended Madagascar’s political order, a high-profile legal verdict has closed one chapter of the island nation’s post-crisis transition. On Tuesday, a court in the capital Antananarivo handed down a 10-year hard labor sentence to retired general Richard Ravalomanana, the former Senate leader and close confidant of ousted former president Andry Rajoelina, finding him guilty of complicity in murder linked to the violent government crackdown on the 2025 demonstrations.

    The unrest, widely dubbed the Gen Z protests, first erupted in September 2025. What began as public outrage over chronic, long-running shortages of electricity and clean drinking water quickly swelled into a mass movement demanding the resignation of Rajoelina’s administration. As crowds gathered across the country to demand political change, security forces responded with force. United Nations figures cited by local Malagasy media put the final death toll from the crackdown at a minimum of 22 people, with more than 100 others sustaining injuries.

    Prosecutors allege that Ravalomanana, who held significant sway over Madagascar’s gendarmerie at the height of the protests, issued direct orders to security personnel to use lethal violence against demonstrators. “He directed violent actions to suppress the demonstrations,” state prosecutors alleged in official filings from December 2025.

    Ravalomanana has repeatedly and forcefully denied all accusations against him, and his legal team has announced plans to appeal the verdict to a higher court. During the trial, a former national police chief who took the stand as a witness for the defense corroborated Ravalomanana’s claim that he played no role in coordinating the crackdown, testifying that the retired general was not part of the operational command chain for security forces deployed during the unrest. His lead defense lawyer further challenged the prosecution’s case, questioning whether any credible direct evidence linking Ravalomanana to the violence exists. “Is there confirmed written or verbal evidence… to accuse him?” the lawyer asked the court, noting that prosecutors had failed to produce proof that security officers received orders from his client.

    The court ultimately dismissed a separate charge of issuing death threats against a political opponent, ruling that the allegation was too old to meet prosecution statutes of limitations. Beyond the murder conspiracy conviction, Ravalomanana also remains the subject of an ongoing separate corruption investigation, one of multiple senior officials from Rajoelina’s ousted administration to face legal proceedings since the political transition.

    Ravalomanana was first removed from his post as Senate president in October 2025, just weeks after the protests first began and as the political crisis surrounding Rajoelina’s government deepened. After failing to respond to a summons from the gendarmerie, he was arrested at his private residence in December 2025, and has been held in pre-trial detention for the past seven months at the high-security Imerintsiatosika prison located on the outskirts of Antananarivo.

    For the protesters who led the movement that ousted Rajoelina’s government, Ravalomanana had already become a prominent symbol of authoritarian overreach. A recognizable public figure known for his signature cowboy hat and open display of his military decorations, he remained one of the most powerful figures in Rajoelina’s government through the final months of its rule. Following the collapse of Rajoelina’s administration, a new government led by Col Michael Randrianirina was installed to lead the country into its post-transition period.

  • Visiting French president will join King Charles III and prime minister to see Bayeux Tapestry

    Visiting French president will join King Charles III and prime minister to see Bayeux Tapestry

    French President Emmanuel Macron touched down in London on Wednesday for a two-day diplomatic visit that blends 1,000 years of shared history with urgent modern policy discussions, marking his first meeting with the United Kingdom’s newly installed Prime Minister Andy Burnham.

    The visit’s centerpiece cultural event is the long-awaited British showing of the Bayeux Tapestry, the iconic medieval masterpiece that chronicles the 1066 Norman Conquest of England. Macron, Burnham, their spouses, King Charles III and Queen Camilla will gather for an exclusive private preview of the 70-meter embroidery at the British Museum, where the artifact will remain on loan for a 10-month public exhibition opening to visitors on September 10.

    For a work of such profound historical significance, moving the tapestry from its permanent home in the Normandy town of Bayeux required extraordinary precautions. In a covert, high-security operation conducted in July, the 1,000-year-old artwork was transported to London via a combined road and rail route. This historic transfer marks the first time the tapestry has been located on British soil since it was created in the 11th century, and the piece is insured for a staggering 960 billion euros (equivalent to $1.1 billion). In a reciprocal arrangement, the British Museum will send a collection of its own Viking and Anglo-Saxon treasures to Normandy museums later in the exchange program.

    Calling the tapestry’s historic arrival “a landmark moment in the history of our two nations,” Burnham highlighted how the centuries-old artifact embodies the intertwined, complex relationship that has shaped both France and the United Kingdom for a millennium. Stitched from wool thread onto a linen backing, the artwork depicts the chain of events that culminated in the October 1066 Battle of Hastings, where William, Duke of Normandy defeated the army of Anglo-Saxon King Harold II. The Norman invasion brought an end to Saxon rule in England, crowned William the Conqueror as the country’s first Norman monarch, and tied the two nations into the close, often complicated dynamic that endures to this day.

    Following the museum event, King Charles III will join Macron for a reception in the British Museum’s Great Court, where both leaders will deliver addresses to an audience that includes British and French officials who organized the loan arrangement, alongside school students from both countries. The historic loan itself was first announced during Macron’s official state visit to the U.K. back in July 2025.

    On Thursday, Burnham will host Macron for formal bilateral talks at 10 Downing Street, with policymakers set to tackle a range of pressing modern challenges alongside celebrating cultural and historical ties. According to a statement from Burnham’s office, curbing irregular migrant crossings of the English Channel in small boats will top the meeting’s agenda. U.K. official data shows that expanded joint law enforcement cooperation between the two countries has already cut the number of crossings in 2026 by more than 40% compared to 2025, a trend both leaders are expected to look to build on.

    Beyond migration policy, the talks will also cover two major ongoing global conflicts: the standoff between the United States and Iran, and the more than four-year-long Russian invasion of Ukraine. France and the U.K. have spearheaded diplomatic and military efforts to shore up European support for Kyiv, and Burnham has reaffirmed his commitment to sustaining Britain’s long-term backing for Ukraine in its defensive war.

    A core priority for the new British prime minister, who took office just six weeks prior to Macron’s visit, is forging closer trade and political ties with the European Union nearly a decade after the U.K. voted to leave the bloc in 2016. Burnham has repeatedly argued that Brexit created what he calls a “decade of low growth” for the British economy, and his visit with Macron is expected to open new conversations about resetting the U.K.-EU relationship after years of strained post-withdrawal negotiations.

  • German authorities probe suspected sabotage after 2 power substation disruptions

    German authorities probe suspected sabotage after 2 power substation disruptions

    BERLIN — German law enforcement and security agencies are launching a full investigation into two separate disruptive incidents at critical power distribution sites across eastern and western Germany, with officials confirming that deliberate sabotage is the leading working hypothesis.

    The first incident came to light early Tuesday morning, when explosive devices were discovered at a high-voltage substation adjacent to the Jänschwalde coal-fired power plant in Brandenburg, a state in Germany’s northeast. Authorities confirmed that while no widespread blackout was triggered across the regional grid, a small number of the hidden devices did ignite, causing damaging short circuits that disrupted substation operations.

    Half a day later, a second incident unfolded hundreds of kilometers to the west, at the Bergheim power substation near Cologne, North Rhine-Westphalia. A sudden short circuit knocked multiple high-voltage power lines out of service Tuesday evening, and local investigators have ruled out accidental technical failure as the cause. Police in Essen, which is overseeing the Bergheim case, told Germany’s national press agency DPA that early evidence points to a deliberate, criminal act, echoing the sabotage suspicions in the Brandenburg case. No widespread power outage occurred after this incident either, but utility operator RWE — which runs several coal-fired power stations that rely on the Bergheim substation to distribute electricity — confirmed that five generating units with a total combined capacity of 4,200 megawatts had to be taken offline as a safety precaution. The company expects all units to resume full operations by the end of this weekend.

    These two targeted attacks come as Germany already maintains an elevated national security alert, following a recent accusation from the German federal government that Russian intelligence was behind an attempted drone attack loaded with explosives at Leipzig/Halle Airport on August 4. This is also not the first time critical German power infrastructure has been targeted by sabotage: in January of this year, suspected left-wing extremist extremists set fire to high-voltage transmission lines near a power plant in southwestern Berlin, causing major grid disruptions.

    Brandenburg’s Interior Minister Jan Redmann has warned that foreign involvement cannot be ruled out as a possible motive behind Tuesday’s coordinated attacks. Speaking to local German media, Redmann told DPA, “This is a hybrid threat that we are facing right now, so we cannot rule out the possibility that foreign state actors are behind these actions. All possibilities are on the table for who the perpetrators may be.”

    As of Wednesday morning, no group or state has claimed responsibility for either attack, and investigations are still ongoing to identify those responsible and assess any broader threats to Germany’s critical national infrastructure.

  • Guinea-Bissau referendum approves new constitution that expands president’s powers

    Guinea-Bissau referendum approves new constitution that expands president’s powers

    In a recent constitutional referendum held by Guinea-Bissau’s transitional military government, voters have backed a set of sweeping institutional reforms that will significantly expand executive presidential power, just months ahead of planned general elections that are supposed to return the West African nation to civilian rule. The vote comes on the heels of a November 2025 military coup, launched after a disputed presidential election left both incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló and opposition challenger Fernando Dias claiming victory, adding Guinea-Bissau to the growing list of central and western African nations that have seen military takeovers in recent years.

    Provisional data released by the country’s national electoral commission shows that 70% of cast ballots supported the constitutional changes, with 30% opposing them, and overall voter turnout reaching almost 60%. The reforms fundamentally reshape Guinea-Bissau’s existing semi-presidential system, shifting the balance of power firmly away from the office of the prime minister and toward the presidency. Under the previous framework, the national parliament appointed a prime minister drawn from the parliamentary majority, who then went on to form a cabinet – an arrangement the ruling military junta argues fueled chronic political gridlock and instability that has plagued the country for decades.

    The new provisions grant the president unilateral authority to appoint and remove prime ministers and full cabinet members, create or eliminate government ministries, and dissolve the national legislature during what is defined as a severe political crisis. Notably, the reforms retain the existing five-year presidential term limit and cap any individual at two terms, allaying some fears that the current transitional leadership was seeking to extend its hold on power indefinitely. Additional changes include cutting the total number of parliamentary seats from 102 to 65, reducing the number of national electoral constituencies from 29 to 12, and implementing new candidate eligibility rules, including a requirement that all presidential candidates have resided continuously in Guinea-Bissau for five years immediately preceding an election.

    Transitional military leaders, led by interim President General Horta N’Tam, have defended the reforms as a necessary fix for the country’s long history of political infighting between the executive and legislative branches. Guinea-Bissau has weathered at least nine successful and attempted coups since it gained independence from Portugal in 1974, and the United Nations has formally labeled the nation a “narco-state” due to its long, undefended coastline dotted with unpopulated islands that has made it a key transit hub for international drug trafficking networks. Junta leaders argue that concentrated executive authority will cut down on the persistent power struggles that have prevented sustained progress and economic development in one of the world’s poorest countries.

    However, the referendum has faced steep opposition from the country’s main opposition bloc, the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), which organized a full boycott of the vote. Party leaders argue that the process lacked basic political and institutional safeguards to protect democratic norms, and warn that concentrating so much power in the presidency poses a severe threat to the country’s planned transition back to civilian democratic rule. PAIGC leader Domingos Simões Pereira has gone further, accusing the junta of deliberately undermining democratic institutions and fundamental political freedoms through the referendum. Some local activists have also challenged the official turnout figures, claiming to the BBC that as many as 90% of registered voters stayed away from the polls, casting the process as nothing more than a pre-planned formality to legitimize the military’s new power structure.

    All eyes now turn to the December 2026 presidential and parliamentary elections, which the junta has promised will mark the end of the transitional period and the handover of power to an elected civilian government. The upcoming vote will serve as a critical test of the military leadership’s commitment to restoring civilian rule, as well as an early indicator of how the newly expanded presidential powers will reshape Guinea-Bissau’s already fragile political landscape going forward.

  • EU’s Kallas calls alleged Russian drone plot ‘state sponsored terrorism’ as Europe mulls a response

    EU’s Kallas calls alleged Russian drone plot ‘state sponsored terrorism’ as Europe mulls a response

    BRUSSELS — Top European Union foreign policy official Kaja Kallas has labeled the foiled August drone attack on a major German airport, which German authorities have blamed on Moscow, as a clear act of state-sponsored terrorism, triggering urgent discussions among EU member states about a coordinated, tougher response to Russian aggressive actions on European soil.

    The incident, which unfolded at Leipzig/Halle Airport on August 4, involved an explosive-laden drone positioned near a Ukrainian cargo plane. German security teams successfully defused the device before it could detonate, with senior German officials noting immediately that the attack represented an unprecedented escalation of dangerous activity targeting European infrastructure. On Tuesday, the German government formally attributed the attempted attack to Russian actors, announcing a suite of retaliatory measures that includes the permanent closure of a Russian consulate on German territory.

    Speaking to reporters ahead of chairing a meeting of EU defense ministers in Ireland this Wednesday, Kallas emphasized that the incident bears all the defining characteristics of state-backed terrorist activity. “It is clear that it has all the hallmarks of state sponsored terrorism. The question is: what do we do about this,” Kallas told journalists, opening the door for debate over whether new punitive steps are needed beyond the EU’s existing sanctions regime.

    Western officials have long accused the Kremlin of orchestrating a broad campaign of sabotage and disruptive operations across European Union member states, with the explicit goal of weakening continental public and political support for Ukraine amid Russia’s full-scale invasion and destabilizing European institutional and social order.

    To date, the EU has rolled out nearly 24 separate packages of economic and political sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, placing roughly 3,000 individuals and legal entities under restrictive measures. The sanctions list includes Russian President Vladimir Putin, pro-Kremlin oligarchs, dozens of Russian legislative officials, major Russian banks and financial institutions, hundreds of vessels linked to the shadow fleet that illegally transports Russian oil to evade export restrictions, and a wide range of companies tied to Russia’s military, energy and drone production sectors. The bulk of these measures consist of travel bans for individuals and asset freezes for both people and entities, and the sanctions list also includes actors from third countries that Moscow has relied on to support its war effort, including Belarus, Iran, North Korea and China.

    Kallas confirmed Wednesday that the bloc is already preparing to add even more names to its sanctions registry, with 1,600 additional entries related to Russia’s military industrial complex already in the approval pipeline — a number that could grow further in response to the alleged airport attack.

    However, despite growing calls for a forceful response, EU member states remain deeply cautious about taking steps that could draw the bloc into open, direct conflict with Russia, a nuclear-armed power. Analysts note that while the alleged attack has created momentum for a stronger collective response, the bloc is still weighing whether new measures require coordination with NATO, and how far to go to avoid escalating tensions beyond what European capitals are comfortable with.

  • War has shifted how power works in Iran

    War has shifted how power works in Iran

    On August 19, the United States announced what it framed as an economic “D-Day” for Iran: a new round of sweeping financial restrictions tightened around Iranian ports, designed to deliver decisive pressure that would force Tehran to bend to Washington’s demands. But inside Iran, the move was interpreted through a very different lens: it served as definitive proof that the U.S. continues to prioritize coercive pressure over any lasting negotiated settlement that it would actually uphold.

    Across Iran’s deeply fragmented political landscape, where consensus on almost any major issue is rare, this reading of Washington’s latest move was strikingly uniform. Economic advisors working to stabilize Iran’s economy under President Masoud Pezeshkian viewed the new sanctions as a clear breach of prior implicit agreements by the U.S. For commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) led by Major General Ahmad Vahidi, the escalation vindicated their long-standing warnings that Washington cannot be trusted to keep its word.

    This latest action has eroded whatever fragile faith remained in Iran that the U.S. is genuinely willing to strike a viable deal, and that collapsing trust is now reshaping every red line Tehran is willing to accept in any future talks. It is critical to recognize that Iran’s political leadership is currently debating existential questions about the core survival strategy of the Islamic Republic, a debate that no longer fits the outdated framing of reformists versus principlists, or moderates against hardliners. Instead, the real contest pits two loyal, competing camps against one another: one that argues the regime can best survive by converting its wartime leverage into tangible economic and diplomatic gains, and another that insists long-term survival depends on maintaining permanent confrontation with the West. This shared loyalty to the state, paired with deeply divergent views on survival, makes the internal debate far more intractable than conventional framing suggests.

    Compounding this complexity is the decentralized structure of modern Iranian power, which today functions best as a network state rather than the rigid vertical hierarchy associated with former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. While Khamenei’s son Mojtaba Khamenei occupies the formal top position and shapes outcomes primarily through key appointments – having installed founding IRGC member Mohsen Rezaee as his representative on the Supreme National Security Council, and rebuilding the Supreme Leader’s office (the Bayt, long the true center of Iranian power) around loyalists such as chief of staff Mahdi Khamoushi – he rules as a balance-keeper rather than an ultimate decider. He intentionally avoids allowing any single power center to dominate the system, leaving authority spread across multiple nodes of the security and political establishment. Rezaee coordinates national strategy from the security council, Vahidi controls the regime’s military muscle ranging from ballistic missile forces to naval operations in the Strait of Hormuz, Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf mediates between legislative bodies and security institutions, Pezeshkian’s civilian administration manages the struggling economy, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghhi handles diplomatic outreach abroad. No single leader holds consolidated control over all these domains.

    Even this decentralized balance is shifting, however. Sustained confrontation with Washington has pulled power toward centralization even in a system built to spread it. The longer the standoff with the U.S. drags on, the more the IRGC has evolved from simply the most powerful single node in the network into the de facto effective decision-maker for the state. While the IRGC still lacks the capacity to singlehandedly run the economy, manage diplomacy, and maintain clerical legitimacy – forcing it to govern through a cross-factional coalition rather than seizing direct control – prolonged conflict steadily erodes that arrangement. Over time, nearly all major policy decisions become tied to the confrontation, shifting more authority to the security establishment.

    Iran’s current approach to a potential negotiated exit from the crisis is defined by a spectrum of factional positions, rather than a binary hardline-moderate split. At one end of the spectrum are the economic stabilizers surrounding Pezeshkian and Araghchi, who argue that the current prolonged stalemate is unsustainable and prioritize securing sanctions relief, unfreezing blocked Iranian assets, and ending the port blockade. Next are the pragmatic sovereigntists led by Ghalibaf and Rezaei, long-time regime insiders who agree that diplomacy is the only viable exit from the crisis, but reject any deal that would force Iran to give up its strategic autonomy. This camp will only enter negotiations from a position of strength, and insists that Iran’s ballistic missile program and its regional network of allied proxies remain completely off the negotiating table.

    Further along the spectrum are the security-first coercionists centered on Vahidi and the IRGC leadership, who view diplomacy as a tactical tool that must always remain subordinate to military leverage. At the far end of the spectrum are the ideological rejectionists of the Paydari Front and Saeed Jalili’s political network, who see any agreement with Washington as outright surrender. This faction functions primarily as a spoiler, able to drastically raise the political cost for any other faction that pursues a deal.

    Contrary to common external misperceptions, this internal disagreement is not a sign of Iranian state dysfunction. It is a deliberate debate over existential questions of statecraft, and what is most notable is not the depth of division between factions, but the broad consensus that has emerged on core fundamentals. Without any formal public announcement, most factions across the spectrum have agreed that some form of negotiation is the only viable path out of the current crisis. The economic stabilizers want a deal to rescue Iran’s collapsing economy; the pragmatic sovereigntists want a deal to lock in the strategic gains Iran has made through years of regional confrontation; even the IRGC has signaled it wants its own channel for talks, as confirmed by recent reports that the Trump administration has relayed messages directly to IRGC leadership via Iraqi Kurdistan.

    The debate is therefore no longer over whether to negotiate at all. Instead, it centers on the terms and conditions Iran will demand, and how the regime can strengthen its position before committing to any irreversible agreement.

    For Washington, the key takeaway is clear: every new round of sanctions escalation – every new economic “D-Day” – plays directly into the hands of the ideological rejectionists, who argue that permanent confrontation with the U.S. and Israel is unavoidable. At the same time, it weakens the very factions that have worked against steep odds to push the Iranian system toward the negotiating table.

    By opening direct talks with the IRGC, former President (and current U.S. presidential candidate) Donald Trump has recognized that there is a unique opportunity to extract the U.S. from a self-created diplomatic quagmire. But for that opportunity to succeed, he must not allow personal political or diplomatic ego to undermine the painstaking work of mediators working to build a path to talks.

  • Trump warns Iran of ‘biggest attack of them all’

    Trump warns Iran of ‘biggest attack of them all’

    On a Tuesday marked by escalating Middle Eastern tensions, former President Donald Trump delivered a stark, unprecedented threat to Iran just hours after the United States military restarted offensive bombing operations targeting positions linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) within Iranian territory.

    In a public post shared to his Truth Social platform, Trump preemptively warned the Iranian government against any retaliatory action for the U.S. airstrikes. “If the failed Nation of Iran retaliates for this very justified attack, they will be hit again at a much harder and higher level,” the post read. Trump went on to amplify the threat, adding, “it will not be the biggest attack of them all, that is waiting in the wings and, when it is over, there will be very little left of the Islamic Republic of Iran!”

    Contrary to Trump’s attempt at intimidation, Iran did not back down from responding. The Associated Press confirmed on the same Tuesday that Iran launched a coordinated counter-strike of missiles and drones against U.S. assets immediately following the American bombing campaign.

    The escalatory exchange comes one day after a Oval Office press interaction, when a reporter asked Trump whether he would entertain the use of nuclear weapons against Iran. At that time, Trump appeared to explicitly rule out such a drastic step, calling the question itself foolish. “There’s no reason for it,” Trump told reporters. “What a stupid question that is, actually. Here they are, they’re totally defeated militarily, so now I defeat them and now I should use a nuclear weapon on top of them?”

    This is not the first time Trump has issued extreme threats against the Iranian government. Back in April, Trump issued an similarly drastic ultimatum, warning that “a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again” unless Iran unconditionally surrendered to U.S. demands. In a notable reversal, Trump backed away from that threat within hours, agreeing to a temporary ceasefire deal that has since expired.

    Despite Trump’s past pattern of walking back aggressive rhetoric, one risk analyst is warning that the latest threats should not be dismissed out of hand. Brett Erickson, managing partner at Obsidian Risk Advisors, noted in his own Tuesday social media post that the current situation carries new risks. “Throughout this entire war, I have been incredibly skeptical of any claims that President Trump is so much as DISCUSSING the use of nuclear weapons,” Erickson wrote. “This reads to me clear as day that they are on the table now.”