分类: politics

  • Swiss voters reject 10 million population cap, early projections say

    Swiss voters reject 10 million population cap, early projections say

    In a closely watched nationwide referendum that carried major implications for Switzerland’s relationship with the European Union and its immigration policy, Swiss voters have rejected a controversial plan to cap the country’s total population at 10 million, early vote projections confirm. With ballots still being finalized, current data shows 55% of voters opposed the measure, while 45% backed it, resulting in a narrow defeat for the proposal.

    The plan was put forward by the right-wing Swiss People’s Party (SVP), a political organization that has built its platform around long-standing anti-immigration campaigning. The SVP argued that rapid population growth over the past two decades had stretched public infrastructure, housing, and environmental resources, claiming a cap would ease pressure on these critical systems. Switzerland’s population has climbed from 7.3 million in 2002 to 9.1 million today, with 27% of current residents holding non-Swiss citizenship, a statistic the SVP repeatedly highlighted during campaigning.

    Critics of the cap, however, warned the proposal carried far-reaching risks that extended far beyond immigration policy. Most critically, a population cap would have forced Switzerland to abandon its free movement agreement with the EU, a deal that underpins the country’s access to the EU single market – the destination for more than half of all Swiss exports. For a nation deeply integrated into European trade and reliant on cross-border labor, abandoning this agreement would have triggered severe economic consequences and diplomatic isolation, opponents argued.

    Leading up to the vote, the debate split the country along political, economic, and generational lines. Speaking to the BBC before the ballot, SVP youth representative Nils Fiechter, who sits in Bern’s cantonal parliament, defended the proposal, arguing that unchecked immigration had eroded Switzerland’s national identity and created crises in housing, transportation, education, and social services. Fiechter’s standing in the debate came with context: in 2022, he and his co-leader of the SVP youth wing were convicted of racial discrimination by the Swiss Federal Supreme Court over a 2018 campaign poster targeting Roma and traveller communities.

    Opponents rejected the SVP’s framing, dismissing the party’s claims as harmful scapegoating. Helin Genis, a 31-year-old Social Democrat on Bern’s city council, argued that migration was not the root cause of Switzerland’s challenges with housing costs, rising health insurance premiums, or underinvestment in infrastructure. “Viewing problems through the lens of migration does not lead to solutions, but to division,” Genis told the BBC.

    Switzerland’s business community raised urgent alarms about the proposal ahead of the vote. Economiesuisse, the country’s leading business association, warned that approving the cap would upend decades of stable trade relations with the EU. “The EU is still by far the most important trading partner for Switzerland, it is in our interest to have stable and clear relationships with our main trading partner,” said Economiesuisse chief economist Rudolf Minsch. Brussels has long made clear that non-EU members cannot access the single market without accepting the core commitment of free movement of people, meaning a yes vote would have inevitably collapsed the existing trade agreement.

    Industry groups also highlighted Switzerland’s deep reliance on foreign labor, pointing to critical sectors facing acute labor shortages. Half of all hotel workers in Switzerland are immigrants, while hospitals and care homes across the country depend heavily on foreign staff to fill gaps left by an ageing native population. With 20% of the Swiss population already over the age of 65, opponents of the cap noted that the country requires young immigrant workers and taxpayers to fund and staff care for its ageing population – a need a population cap would only worsen.

    Beyond economic concerns, many politicians and voters warned the cap would leave Switzerland diplomatically isolated at a time of rising global instability. Though Switzerland maintains a long-standing policy of official neutrality, it has recently increased defense spending and moved to deepen security and defense coordination with European neighbors. Social Democratic MP Jon Pult told the BBC that his greatest fear was a yes vote would leave Switzerland isolated in an “unstable and dangerous world.”

    The referendum is a product of Switzerland’s unique system of direct democracy, which allows any campaign to force a nationwide vote on a proposal if it can gather 100,000 signatures from eligible voters. While the result was narrow, the rejection of the cap ends weeks of uncertainty for Switzerland’s economy, its European relations, and its immigrant population.

  • Ukrainian drone strikes kill 1 and spark fire at oil facility in Russia

    Ukrainian drone strikes kill 1 and spark fire at oil facility in Russia

    Two major developments linked to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict unfolded over the weekend, amplifying pressure on Russian energy networks and sanction evasion efforts across Europe. On Sunday, Russian regional officials confirmed that a Ukrainian drone assault left one civilian dead and nine others injured in Oryol, a southwestern Russian region located hundreds of kilometers from the shared border with Ukraine. The strike targeted a multi-unit residential building in Oryol, the region’s capital city, during overnight hours, according to Oryol Governor Andrei Klychkov.

    A second, separate drone attack struck fuel storage infrastructure in Russia’s Yaroslavl region, a site more than 400 miles from Ukraine’s northern border. Local authorities confirmed a large fire broke out at the facility after the impact, a development that Ukrainian officials quickly acknowledged as a deliberate strike on a key Russian energy asset. “Our forces have struck an oil facility that was critical to the reserve supplies of the aggressor state,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed of the Yaroslavl operation.

    The wave of weekend strikes marks a continuation of Kyiv’s escalating campaign targeting Russian energy infrastructure that has ramped up over recent months. Ukrainian officials have repeatedly justified these deep-inland strikes, noting that Russia’s oil and gas sector generates the bulk of revenue that funds Moscow’s full-scale invasion, now in its fourth year. Every strike on energy storage and production sites cuts into the resources Moscow can redirect to its military campaign, Ukrainian defense and political leaders argue.

    Half a world away in the English Channel, British forces carried out a landmark operation targeting Russian sanction evasion on the same weekend. Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced that British armed forces had boarded and detained the tanker *Smyrtos*, a vessel suspected of being part of Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” that ships crude oil in violation of Western sanctions imposed over the Ukraine invasion. The UK Ministry of Defense called the operation the first large-scale seizure of its kind led by British authorities.

    Analysts and Western officials estimate Russia operates a network of hundreds of unregistered or loosely registered vessels to conceal oil shipments and bypass price caps and trade bans put in place after the 2022 invasion. Starmer emphasized that the detention of the *Smyrtos* sends a clear message to actors aiding Russia’s war effort. “This operation delivers yet another blow to Russia and reminds those fueling Putin’s war in Ukraine that they cannot hide,” Starmer told reporters Sunday. British investigators are now conducting a full inspection of the tanker to confirm its connections to sanction-breaking Russian oil trade.

  • UK armed forces board Russian shadow fleet oil tanker in English Channel, PM says

    UK armed forces board Russian shadow fleet oil tanker in English Channel, PM says

    In a landmark first operation to enforce international sanctions against Moscow, British armed forces intercepted and boarded a sanctioned oil tanker linked to Russia’s shadow fleet in the English Channel in the early hours of Sunday. The six-hour mission, carried out by elite Royal Marine Commandos and specialist National Crime Agency law enforcement officers with air support from the Royal Air Force, marks the first seizure of its kind under new powers granted to UK military earlier this year.

    The detained vessel, identified as the *Smyrtos*, is currently anchored and under continued monitoring off the UK’s south coast as official investigations proceed, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) confirmed in an official statement. Prime Minister Keir Starmer emphasized that the successful operation delivers another significant blow to Russia’s ability to fund its war in Ukraine, sending a clear message to actors enabling Vladimir Putin’s military campaign that they cannot evade international enforcement.

    According to open-source vessel tracking data from MarineTraffic, the *Smyrtos* flies under a Cameroonian flag and is currently anchored off the coast of Weymouth. Independent analysis by BBC Verify traced the tanker’s journey: it departed Russia’s Ust-Luga oil terminal near St. Petersburg on June 5, and entered the English Channel moving westward on Saturday. The vessel was originally added to international sanctions lists in July 2025, and has since evaded restrictions by changing its name from *Myrtos* to *Smyrtos* and switching its registered flag twice — a common tactic used by shadow fleet operators.

    Russia’s network of unregulated shadow tankers has become a critical lifeline for the Kremlin, allowing it to bypass Western export sanctions imposed over its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. MoD figures show the more than 700-vessel fleet carries roughly 75% of all Russian oil that falls under international sanctions. Back in March, Starmer’s government announced new legislation granting UK armed forces explicit authority to board sanctioned vessels transiting British territorial waters, and to date the UK has imposed sanctions on more than 500 vessels linked to Russian oil evasion. These measures bar targeted ships from entering UK ports and ban British individuals and companies from offering financial services, insurance, or brokerage support for any vessels carrying sanctioned Russian crude.

    The high-profile interception comes amid significant domestic political upheaval for the UK government, coming one week after two senior defence officials resigned in protest over the government’s delayed Defence Investment Plan (DIP). The long-awaited strategy document, which will outline UK military spending priorities for the coming years, is set to be published ahead of next month’s NATO summit after months of delays. Last Thursday, former Defence Secretary John Healey resigned from the cabinet, warning that the level of military spending proposed by Starmer’s government falls well short of the funding required to address current and future security threats to the UK. He was followed shortly by Armed Forces Minister Al Carns, who told the prime minister that the draft DIP was neither transformative enough nor sufficiently funded to match the UK’s security needs.

    Speaking to the BBC, current Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy pushed back against claims of division, stating that the prime minister had been clear with his entire cabinet that additional funding for defence must be found, and that discussions over the final shape of the DIP remain ongoing. “We have to transform the way we do defence spending, so that what we’re spending is fit for the threats we face now and in the future,” Nandy told *Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg*.

    Sunday’s operation was supported by a full multi-service deployment: an RAF P-8 maritime patrol aircraft from the Maritime Air Group provided surveillance support, while Royal Navy frigates HMS Sutherland and HMS Ledbury provided surface backup. Former minister Al Carns, who stepped down just days before the interception, outlined the high-risk tactics the mission would have entailed: “It would have involved armed forces personnel flying low level over the sea, rearing up before the ship, fast roping onto the ship, securing it and then taking it into our territorial waters.” Carns added that this first successful boarding sets a precedent for future action, noting “we’re probably going to see more, should the opportunities present themselves.”

    Attorney General Richard Hermer reaffirmed the government’s commitment to upholding sanctions under international law, saying “This government made clear that we would pursue Russia’s shadow fleet under the full force of international law.” The UK’s core strategic goal in targeting these vessels is to choke off revenue flowing to Russia’s war machine in Ukraine, a government spokesperson reiterated.

    Notably, Sunday’s operation was carried out in close coordination with French authorities, continuing a pattern of bilateral cooperation between the two allies on sanctions enforcement. Just last month, on June 1, French President Emmanuel Macron announced that French military forces had intercepted another sanctioned shadow fleet tanker with support from the UK, which provided British helicopter assistance to that mission.

  • Romania’s president nominates Adrian Vestea as prime minister after his previous pick withdraws

    Romania’s president nominates Adrian Vestea as prime minister after his previous pick withdraws

    BUCHAREST, Romania — A fresh chapter in Romania’s ongoing political turbulence has opened after President Nicusor Dan announced a new prime ministerial nominee on Sunday, turning to seasoned pro-Western politician Adrian Vestea in a bid to break the deadlock that has gripped the nation since his first pick collapsed earlier this month.

    The 53-year-old Vestea, a long-standing member of the National Liberal Party with deep roots in administrative politics from central Romania’s Brasov County, is the president’s second attempt to put forward a viable head of government in just four weeks. His predecessor in the nomination process, Eugen Tomac, was forced to step back earlier Sunday after he failed to secure enough cross-party backing to put forward a full cabinet list to the Romanian Parliament within the mandatory 10-day negotiating window.

    “Eugen Tomac withdrew his mandate this morning, and … I nominate Adrian Vestea as prime minister,” Dan told reporters during a formal announcement at Bucharest’s iconic Cotroceni Presidential Palace. Like all prime ministerial nominations in Romania, Vestea’s appointment will require a vote of approval from sitting lawmakers to move forward.

    Dan laid out his reasoning for tapping Vestea, highlighting the nominee’s decades of hands-on experience across multiple levels of Romanian governance — a track record he argued makes Vestea uniquely suited to tackle the country’s pressing economic and political challenges. Vestea has climbed the ranks of domestic politics starting from the lowest administrative level: he served as mayor of a small local town, then went on to become president of the Brasov County Council, a role in which he successfully secured substantial European Union development funding for the region. He most recently held the post of Minister of Development between 2023 and 2024.

    “He was a successful mayor, he was a successful county council president, he was a successful minister,” Dan said of Vestea. “He is a categorically pro-Western person … a person who has worked for a long time with budgets. So I am convinced that he will successfully fulfill this task.”

    Speaking after the formal nomination, Vestea laid out his core priorities, saying he intends to form a unified government that delivers long-delayed structural reforms while maintaining Romania’s firm commitment to its Western alignment. “We are the sixth largest country in Europe, and we need to put a major emphasis on development,” Vestea said from the Cotroceni Palace. “Which I will do from day one.”

    Sunday’s nomination marks the latest turn in a political crisis that has stretched across months. The current instability began when a parliamentary no-confidence vote ousted Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan in May, less than a year after he took office. Bolojan was originally sworn in to resolve one of the deepest political crises Romania has faced since the fall of communism in 1989, after the previous coalition government collapsed in 2025. The next scheduled general election in Romania is not set to take place until 2028, leaving a years-long gap that political leaders are scrambling to fill with a stable governing administration.

    Beyond the immediate political deadlock, the next Romanian government will face urgent economic challenges: the country currently carries one of the largest budget deficits in the European Union, alongside persistent high inflation and an ongoing technical recession. When the ruling coalition took power in June 2025, cutting the ballooning deficit was its top policy priority — a goal that remains unfulfilled amid repeated government turnover.

  • Britain detains sanctioned oil tanker believed to be linked to Russia’s shadow fleet

    Britain detains sanctioned oil tanker believed to be linked to Russia’s shadow fleet

    LONDON — In a landmark enforcement action targeting Russian sanctions evasion tied to its invasion of Ukraine, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer confirmed Sunday that authorities are probing a sanctioned oil tanker suspected of belonging to Moscow’s infamous “shadow fleet” of vessels used to bypass international trade restrictions.

    British armed forces boarded and took custody of the tanker, identified as the Smyrtos, Sunday in the English Channel. The UK Defense Ministry labeled the boarding and detention as the first operational action of this scope and type ever led by the United Kingdom. Following the interception, the vessel will be anchored off England’s southern coast, where it will remain under constant surveillance while investigators conduct a full probe into its activities.

    Officials noted the operation was executed in close partnership with French law enforcement and border authorities. France has already established a track record of intercepting multiple ships linked to Russia’s shadow fleet, making coordinated enforcement a key priority for European nations seeking to crack down on sanctions circumvention.

    Intelligence assessments from Western officials estimate that Russia operates a network of hundreds of unregistered or under-documented ships as part of its shadow fleet. These vessels are used to ship Russian crude oil and oil products outside of formal international trade frameworks, allowing Moscow to evade the price caps and trade sanctions imposed by the EU, G7, and other Western allies in response to its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The revenue generated by these illicit oil shipments directly funds Russia’s military campaign, according to allied analyses.

    In remarks following the interception, Prime Minister Starmer emphasized that the action marks another significant setback for Russian efforts to circumvent sanctions. “This operation delivers yet another blow to Russia and reminds those fueling Putin’s war in Ukraine that they cannot hide,” Starmer said.

    UK security officials echoed that framing, noting that repeated coordinated enforcement actions directly cut into the financial resources that sustain Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine. By disrupting shadow fleet operations, the UK and its partners aim to reduce Moscow’s capacity to project military power and threaten security stability across Europe and the broader international community.

  • Taiwan’s spy agency launches webpage for Chinese nationals to report tips

    Taiwan’s spy agency launches webpage for Chinese nationals to report tips

    Against a backdrop of persistently high tensions between Beijing and the self-governing island of Taiwan, Taiwan’s top intelligence body announced a new initiative on Sunday: a dedicated secure online platform designed to collect intelligence tips from Chinese nationals.

    The National Security Bureau of Taiwan confirmed in an official statement that the dedicated webpage will function as an encrypted, safe reporting channel, responding to what the agency describes as a growing flow of inquiries from Chinese citizens seeking to share varied types of intelligence-related information in recent months.

    In its explanation for the new program, the bureau pointed to shifting conditions within mainland China, noting that the world’s second-largest economy has grappled with mounting economic headwinds in recent years, while rigid political oversight remains in place. When combined with widening social and livelihood challenges across the country, these factors have driven rising public discontent, the statement added.

    Taiwanese officials also clarified that the policy draws its framework from similar practices already implemented by intelligence services in the United States, United Kingdom, and Israel. The move echoes a high-profile initiative launched by the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency last year, when the agency published Mandarin-language videos across major social media platforms to reach out to dissatisfied Chinese officials and invite them to share sensitive information with U.S. intelligence.

    The new channel comes as part of a longer-running tit-for-tat in information operations between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. Months prior, Beijing launched its own online reporting platform, calling for the public to submit tips on so-called “Taiwan independence” separatist activities, with the stated goal of holding individuals promoting separation accountable under law.

    Cross-Strait relations have remained fraught for seven decades, dating back to the 1949 split that followed the end of China’s civil war. Beijing has consistently maintained that Taiwan is an inalienable part of Chinese territory, and has repeatedly stated it will not rule out the use of military force to bring the island under its control if formal unification never occurs. Tensions have spiked in recent weeks: Chinese authorities have carried out large-scale joint military exercises in waters and airspace adjacent to Taiwan, and just this week, Taiwan’s military conducted a live-fire drill where it test-fired rockets toward waters off the Chinese coast from U.S.-supplied mobile launch systems, a demonstration of its defensive capabilities to fend off a potential large-scale attack.

  • Swiss cast ballots on right-wing’s bid to cap country’s population at 10 million

    Swiss cast ballots on right-wing’s bid to cap country’s population at 10 million

    GENEVA – Sunday marked a historic moment for Swiss direct democracy, as voters cast their final ballots on a controversial population cap initiative put forward by the country’s largest right-wing political force. The populist Swiss People’s Party (SVP), which holds the most seats in Switzerland’s federal parliament, framed the proposal as a necessary “sustainability initiative.” It argues that decades of rapid demographic growth have stretched the Alpine nation’s public infrastructure, affordable housing supply, social welfare systems, natural resources and distinctive quality of life to breaking point. If the ballot measure passes, the government will be legally required to cap Switzerland’s total population at 10 million by 2050; should the population hit 9.5 million before that deadline, authorities would be forced to immediately cut access to asylum approvals, family reunification visas and residency permits, with the popular free movement of people agreement between Switzerland and the European Union at high risk of being scrapped entirely. The proposal has set off a fierce national debate, pitting the SVP against both the federal government and parliamentary majority, which uniformly oppose the initiative. For years, the SVP has mobilized growing anti-migration sentiment, particularly targeting the steady inflow of workers from neighboring EU member states. Latest population data puts Switzerland’s current population at 9.1 million, a 23% jump since 2002, when the country opened its borders to free movement with the EU. Over that same period, national economic output has grown 24% according to federal government statistics. Critics warn the policy would be a devastating self-inflicted economic and political wound. They point out that generations of migration have brought critical foreign labor and specialized skills to Switzerland’s most vital sectors, including healthcare, financial services, pharmaceuticals and technology. Many also warn that a “yes” vote would severely damage the country’s close economic relationship with Brussels: the EU is Switzerland’s largest trading partner by far, and the loss of free movement arrangements would upend decades of seamless cross-border cooperation. As of 2024, 32% of Switzerland’s population is foreign-born, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development – a share higher than any other OECD member except Luxembourg and Australia. Migration has long been one of the most polarizing political issues across Europe, where aging domestic populations and rising far-right influence have fueled growing anti-foreigner sentiment. Unlike many other European nations where anti-migration rhetoric focuses on arrivals from the Global South, the majority of foreign residents in Switzerland are citizens of other European countries. This referendum marks the latest chapter in half a century of repeated popular votes on immigration limits in Switzerland. Of all these ballot measures, only one – the 2014 “Against Mass Immigration” referendum – passed by a razor-thin margin, driven by campaign rhetoric that stoked public fears of overpopulation and growing Muslim communities. According to Swiss policy experts, what makes this vote unprecedented is that no other nation in the world has ever held a popular vote to cap its total national population. Leading up to Sunday’s vote, recent polling from leading Swiss research firm gfs.bern indicated that the contest would be extremely close, with no clear side holding a decisive advantage. Switzerland’s system of direct democracy grants citizens the right to directly vote on policy proposals via national referendums, which are held four times annually. The majority of voters cast their ballots by mail ahead of Sunday, with in-person voting at polling stations concluding at 12 p.m. local time.

  • EU foreign policy chief compares Israel to apartheid South Africa: Report

    EU foreign policy chief compares Israel to apartheid South Africa: Report

    A leaked account of closed-door diplomatic talks has pulled back the curtain on a stark contradiction at the heart of European Union foreign policy: EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas has privately drawn a parallel between Israel’s treatment of Palestinians and the racial apartheid system that governed South Africa for decades, multiple sources familiar with the discussion have confirmed.

    The revelation, first reported by Euractiv, places Kallas’s off-the-record views in direct tension with her very public, unwavering support for Israel amid the ongoing devastating conflict in Gaza and accelerating Israeli settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank. According to individuals with direct knowledge of the meeting, Kallas made the comparison during confidential discussions with Mexican officials in Mexico City, where she led a high-level EU delegation on an official visit from May 20 to 22.

    During the conversation, Kallas referenced her 2024 visit to South Africa’s apartheid museum in Johannesburg, framing the structural systems Israel has imposed on Palestinian communities in Gaza and the occupied West Bank as analogous to the formal racial segregation that defined South Africa from 1948 through the early 1990s.

    Kallas’s characterization is far from unprecedented. For years, the United Nations, International Court of Justice, leading global human rights organizations, academic scholars, and international legal experts have formally classified Israel’s long-term domination of Palestinian territories as apartheid. Two EU member states, Ireland and Spain, have also publicly affirmed that Israel’s actions in occupied Palestinian territories meet the legal definition of apartheid.

    What makes Kallas’s leaked remarks so significant is the sharp dissonance with her public posture. Since taking office, Kallas has positioned herself as one of Israel’s most prominent defenders in European politics. She has repeatedly backed Israel’s military campaign in Gaza — a conflict that has killed more than 40,000 Palestinians according to Gaza health authorities, displaced most of the territory’s population, and triggered a catastrophic humanitarian famine that the International Court of Justice has warned amounts to a violation of the Genocide Convention. As recently as March 2025, during a joint press conference in Tel Aviv alongside Israeli officials, Kallas reaffirmed that the EU stood “in solidarity with Israel and its people,” adding that “the security of Israel is extremely important to the European Union” and emphasizing that Israelis “must feel safe in their homes.”

    Critics across the political spectrum have seized on the leaked remarks to condemn what they call Kallas’s selective application of international law. Kallas has been one of the most vocal advocates for harsh punitive measures against Russia for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, pushing for sweeping sanctions and unwavering diplomatic support for Kyiv. But when it comes to Israel, she has consistently framed the country’s actions as a legitimate exercise of its “right to self-defense,” even as Palestinians endure mass bombardment, a year-long total siege, mass displacement, and what Kallas herself privately acknowledges is an apartheid system of rule.

    Progressive members of the European Parliament have joined this criticism, arguing that the EU’s entire approach to the Gaza conflict is marked by hypocrisy when compared to its unified, forceful response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. MEPs have repeatedly demanded that Brussels adopt tougher sanctions on Israeli officials, suspend the long-standing EU-Israel Association Agreement, and end the political protection that the bloc has extended to Israel for decades.

    The leak of Kallas’s remarks also comes at a moment of intensifying internal power struggle over control of EU foreign policy. On June 11, the Financial Times reported that France and Germany are circulating proposals to restructure the bloc’s diplomatic architecture, a change that would significantly reduce Kallas’s authority and influence. Citing five senior EU officials briefed on the ongoing talks, the FT reported that the proposals would strip key powers from the European External Action Service (EEAS), the diplomatic body that supports the EU foreign policy chief.

    Any move to weaken Kallas and the EEAS would shift greater power over foreign policy to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and the bloc’s national capitals. Von der Leyen has long sought to expand the commission’s role in setting EU foreign policy, and she is widely recognized as even more staunchly pro-Israel than Kallas.

    This report was originally based on independent reporting from Middle East Eye, which provides dedicated, in-depth coverage of the Middle East and North Africa region.

  • Trump and other G7 leaders are meeting without China. Is that a mistake?

    Trump and other G7 leaders are meeting without China. Is that a mistake?

    When the world’s leading wealthy democracies gathered for their first ever summit in a French countryside chateau in 1975, China was never in the room. That original gathering of six major powers, which would become the annual Group of 7 a year later after Canada joined, was created to coordinate policy for a slumping global economy — and Beijing’s absence was never controversial.

    At the time, China was mired in domestic political upheaval, decades away from its transformation into a global economic powerhouse. The idea of Mao Zedong, China’s revolutionary leader, joining U.S. President Gerald Ford and other Western heads of state for policy talks was unthinkable: Beijing had provided extensive military support to Ho Chi Minh’s communist forces in Vietnam, which ultimately defeated both U.S. and French military campaigns in the region. A seat at the 1975 Rambouillet summit would have never been on the table.

    Decades later, as then-U.S. President Donald Trump and other G7 leaders convened for their summit in the French Alpine town of Evian-les-Bains, that historic exclusion has started to look increasingly out of step with global reality. Today, China holds enormous influence over global economic stability and international affairs, prompting a pressing question that hangs over every G7 gathering: Does the bloc make any sense without China at the table?

    By any economic metric, China would qualify for membership without question. Following decades of rapid expansion after Mao’s death in 1976, China’s economy now outpaces every G7 member except the United States — it is larger than the economies of Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, France, Italy and Canada combined. By that measure, a G7 summit without China is analogous to organizing a men’s soccer World Cup and excluding five-time champion Brazil, analysts note.

    John Kirton, a University of Toronto scholar who specializes in G7 research, summed up China’s transformation: “From being only a tiny, benign panda bear in 1975, China has become a great global dragon.” He added that many observers agree the G7 and the broader global community would benefit from Chinese membership, with a plausible answer to the question of inclusion being “Yes.”

    Yet a fundamental barrier stands in the way: the G7’s long-standing unwritten rule that membership is limited to functioning democracies. In their 1975 founding declaration at Rambouillet, the original leaders explicitly stated the bloc was built for nations “each responsible for the government of an open, democratic society, dedicated to individual liberty and social advancement.”

    China would never have met that threshold during Mao’s rule, when tens of millions died from famine and political upheaval tied to the Chinese Communist Party’s revolutionary campaigns. Under current President Xi Jinping, it still does not qualify: multiple independent global rankings, including Freedom House’s annual Freedom in the World report, Reporters Without Borders’ World Press Freedom Index and the Fraser Institute’s economic freedom ranking, all place China far behind G7 members when it comes to civil liberties and political openness.

    Even without a seat at the table, China is set to be the most consequential unspoken topic at the G7 summit. Beijing’s global clout touches nearly every policy area the bloc addresses, from trade to climate to national security. China posted a record annual trade surplus of nearly $1.2 trillion in 2025, maintaining a massive export imbalance that has long been a source of friction with other major industrialized economies. It controls a dominant share of the global supply of critical rare minerals required for green energy and advanced technology, its rapid military and tech advancement has sparked widespread anxiety among Western rivals, and it remains the world’s top emitter of greenhouse gases driving climate change.

    That makes China the unavoidable “elephant in the room” for the three-day Evian summit. As summit host, French President Emmanuel Macron has specifically set aside time for leaders to discuss rebalancing trade relations with China, amid growing fears that a surge in Chinese exports — particularly of electric vehicles — could harm domestic manufacturing sectors across G7 nations.

    While relations between Trump and other G7 leaders had been strained in the lead-up to the summit over disagreements on Iran policy and other contentious issues, China is widely seen as a unifying point for the bloc, according to Cédric Dupont, an international politics specialist at the Geneva Graduate Institute. “They agree on the same thing, you know: China is a problem,” Dupont explained.

    For its part, Beijing has watched G7 developments with open caution. Historically, the Chinese government has criticized the bloc as an outdated Cold War-era institution designed to advance Western ideological interests in a divided world. But in a statement provided to the Associated Press ahead of the Evian summit, China’s Foreign Ministry struck a more measured tone, saying “the G7 should serve as a catalyst for solidarity and cooperation rather than an amplifier of division and confrontation.”

    Beijing-based analyst Wang Zichen noted that China’s wariness stems from the bloc’s inherent alignment with U.S.-led Western power. “Beijing is wary of the G7 because it sees the group as structurally aligned with U.S.-led Western power, and increasingly as a venue where China is discussed as a challenge or threat,” Wang said. Even so, China cannot dismiss the G7’s influence: “China recognizes that the G7 still represents a very significant concentration of economic, technological, military and financial power,” he added.

    Beyond the democracy requirement, analysts argue that admitting China would irrevocably fracture the G7’s internal cohesion. Beijing’s authoritarian political system, core national interests and policy positions on flashpoints including Russia’s war in Ukraine and Iran’s nuclear program are fundamentally misaligned with those of Western G7 democracies. Even more, analysts warn Chinese membership could split long-standing alliances within the bloc, as individual nations could be tempted to strike separate side deals with Beijing to secure favorable terms on trade, critical minerals, technology and other key issues.

    “China inside would indeed be a Trojan horse,” Kirton said. “With a Chinese leader at the table, individual members might be tempted to break G7 ranks to secure special favors from him on the economic, critical minerals, digital technology and other issues they address.”

    Chris Alden, an international relations expert at the London School of Economics and Political Science, echoed that assessment, saying adding China “would make it very difficult for it [the G7] to function.”

    The bad experience of Russia’s brief membership also serves as a major warning for G7 leaders. The bloc’s last expansion, which added Russia as a full member in 1998, ended in acrimony: the G7 froze Russia out after Vladimir Putin seized Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, a move that foreshadowed Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. While Trump argued last year that excluding Russia was “a very big mistake,” the experience convinced most other G7 leaders that they should never again allow a non-democratic power to join their fully democratic bloc.

    Associated Press writers Ken Moritsugu and E. Eduardo Castillo in Beijing and Jamey Keaten in Geneva contributed reporting to this article.

  • Trump says Iran deal set for Sunday, but Tehran has yet to confirm

    Trump says Iran deal set for Sunday, but Tehran has yet to confirm

    A major diplomatic development over the end of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran has erupted into conflicting timelines this weekend, after former US President Donald Trump announced that a long-negotiated peace agreement would be signed Sunday to reopen the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. The waterway, one of the world’s most critical chokepoints for global oil trade, has been closed throughout the recent escalation that roiled regional security and sent shockwaves through global energy markets.

    In a post shared to his Truth Social platform Saturday, Trump confirmed the deal’s purported timeline, stating that “The Deal is scheduled to get signed tomorrow, and immediately after it is signed, the Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL.” Alongside the framework for ending hostilities, Trump outlined a key nuclear provision: the United States will take control of Iran’s existing stockpile of enriched uranium and permanently destroy the material. He detailed that once the region stabilizes, US B-2 stealth bombers will be deployed to extract and eliminate the nuclear material stored deep beneath fortified granite mountain sites, with downblending and disposal completed either in Iran or on US territory. Closing his statement, Trump extended an olive branch, saying “We look forward to working with Iran, and the entire Middle East, long into the future.” He also issued a veiled warning to Tehran over full implementation of the terms, noting “Hopefully, this process will all work out quickly, easily, and smoothly. If it doesn’t, we have the ultimate alternative, hopefully never to be used again!”

    Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif echoed optimism around the negotiations, announcing Saturday that Islamabad is prepared to complete an electronic signing of the agreement within 24 hours, with follow-up technical negotiations scheduled to kick off next week. “We are closer to a peace deal than ever before … We are confident that this historic peace deal will form a strong foundation for lasting peace,” Sharif wrote on his official social media channels.

    Despite the upbeat announcements from Washington and Islamabad, Iranian officials have pushed back directly on the Sunday signing timeline. Speaking to Iranian state media Saturday morning, foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei stressed that the memorandum of understanding would not be signed the following day, urging caution over premature timeline announcements. “We will have to wait and see about the exact date of the signing of the memorandum of understanding, although it will not be tomorrow,” Baghaei was quoted as saying. “The possibility of this happening in the coming days cannot be ruled out.”

    The conflicting statements come following nearly a week of intense armed conflict between Iran, Israel and the United States, the most severe escalation of tensions between the three parties since a ceasefire was reached in April. Just two days prior, on Thursday, Trump ramped up pressure on Iran by threatening to seize the country’s Kharg Island oil export terminal and launch a new round of military strikes. Within hours, he announced a sudden diplomatic breakthrough, claiming that a draft agreement had already been “approved” by “the highest level of Iranian leadership.”