分类： business

BANGKOK (AP) — Escalating military conflict around the Persian Gulf has triggered severe disruptions to global energy markets, with oil and natural gas shipments through the critical Strait of Hormuz facing unprecedented challenges. The strategic waterway, which facilitates approximately one-fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, has become a flashpoint in regional tensions, sending energy prices soaring worldwide.

Asia emerges as the most vulnerable region due to its heavy dependence on imported energy resources. According to energy consultancy Kpler, approximately 13 million barrels of oil transited through the corridor daily in 2025, representing about one-third of all seaborne crude. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reports that over 80% of LNG shipments through the strait in 2024 were destined for Asian markets.

Since hostilities began, Brent crude prices have surged by 15% to approximately $84 per barrel, reaching their highest level since July 2024. U.S. President Donald Trump announced potential naval protection and risk insurance for shippers, but the ripple effects extend far beyond the immediate region. Wealthier nations are outbidding developing economies for scarce energy cargoes, recreating patterns observed during previous energy shocks.

Zulfikar Yurnaidi of the ASEAN Centre for Energy warned that “the crisis, with the closure of the Hormuz Strait as the latest development, would not only raise oil and gas prices but also grind global economic activity to a halt.”

China and India face particularly significant challenges as the world’s largest and third-largest crude oil importers, respectively. While China maintains substantial strategic petroleum reserves and alternative supply routes—including discounted Iranian, Russian, and Venezuelan oil through independent refiners—the price volatility remains a concern. India’s situation appears more precarious with less than one month of crude reserves, creating potential for rapid deterioration if conflicts persist.

East Asian economies demonstrate varying levels of vulnerability. Japan imports approximately 95% of its crude from the Middle East, while South Korea sources around 70% of its crude oil and 20% of its LNG from the region. Taiwan, despite diversification efforts, remains heavily dependent on Qatari LNG. All three economies maintain energy stockpiles but face challenges in energy-intensive industries.

Southeast Asian nations are implementing emergency measures as developing economies risk being outbid in tightening markets. Singapore has warned of higher energy bills, Manila has restricted non-essential fuel use, and Thailand has suspended petroleum exports while boosting domestic production. The region’s reliance on spot-market LNG creates additional exposure to price volatility and geopolitical instability.

Energy analysts emphasize that current reserves provide only temporary relief, with many nations regretting insufficient investment in renewable energy diversification that could have served as a natural hedge against such disruptions.

China has announced its most conservative annual economic growth target in over three decades, setting a range of 4.5% to 5% for the coming year during the ongoing Two Sessions political gathering. This marks the lowest expansion goal since 1991 and represents the first downward adjustment since the “around 5%” target established in 2023.

The revised growth framework emerges as Beijing confronts multiple economic headwinds, including persistently weak domestic consumption, an unresolved property sector crisis, and escalating trade tensions with Western nations. The announcement coincided with preliminary details of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan, which outlines strategic investments in innovation, high-tech industries, and scientific research.

Premier Li Qiang addressed delegates emphasizing the government’s dual focus: stimulating household consumption while advancing manufacturing sophistication. This approach reflects concerns about over-reliance on export-driven growth despite China recording a record $1.19 trillion trade surplus in the previous year.

Recent economic data reveals the complexity of China’s situation. While officially meeting the 5% growth target for 2025 overall, expansion slowed to 4.5% in the final quarter, consistent with the new target’s lower bound. This slowdown has prompted more than two-thirds of Chinese provinces to similarly temper their growth expectations.

Georgetown University researcher Ning Leng notes that China’s export dependency creates vulnerability, particularly as former President Donald Trump’s tariff policies continue to pressure trade relations. In response, China has aggressively pursued trade diversification strategies to maintain manufacturing output and market access.

BEIJING — In a strategic move to navigate complex domestic and global economic challenges, the Chinese government has established a flexible growth target range of 4.5% to 5% for the current fiscal year. The announcement was delivered by Premier Li Qiang on Thursday during his keynote address at the inaugural session of the National People’s Congress, the country’s top legislative body.

This calibrated objective represents a modest downward adjustment from the consistent 5% benchmark maintained over the preceding three years. The decision reflects a pragmatic approach by policymakers confronting a protracted downturn in the real estate sector, persistent external uncertainties, and fluctuating international demand.

Analysts interpret the introduction of a target band, as opposed to a fixed figure, as a deliberate policy mechanism. It grants authorities enhanced operational flexibility to implement responsive fiscal and monetary measures throughout the year, adapting to evolving economic conditions. The official government work report explicitly framed the goal as aiming for the upper limit of this range, “while striving for better in practice,” signaling an underlying ambition to maximize performance.

The revised target follows an official economic expansion of precisely 5% in 2023. This new guidance is widely perceived as an effort to balance the dual objectives of sustaining stable development and managing systemic risks, particularly those emanating from the beleaguered property market and trade tensions.

Financial markets experienced significant turbulence on Thursday as escalating Middle East hostilities triggered a complex interplay between risk aversion and opportunistic buying. While Asian and European indices posted modest gains, U.S. futures declined following Iran’s renewed missile attacks against Israeli and American targets, marking the sixth day of intensified conflict.

The immediate market impact manifested through energy markets, with Brent crude surging 1.8% to $82.87 per barrel and U.S. benchmark crude jumping 2.1% to $76.31. This oil price spike renewed inflation concerns and created uncertainty about corporate profitability, particularly as Iran threatened further retaliation and religious leaders issued inflammatory statements.

Asian markets demonstrated remarkable resilience despite the geopolitical backdrop. South Korea’s Kospi staged a dramatic recovery, soaring 9.6% to 5,583.90 after Wednesday’s historic plunge, triggering multiple trading halts as investors sought bargains. The government responded with emergency measures, activating a 100 trillion won ($68.5 billion) financial stabilization package to curb volatility.

Other regional markets followed suit with Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 advancing 1.9%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rising 0.4%, and Taiwan’s main index gaining 2.6%. In China, the Hang Seng climbed 0.3% as Premier Li Qiang announced a 4.5-5% growth target at the National People’s Congress, alongside a 7% increase in military spending.

European markets showed cautious optimism with Germany’s DAX rising 0.2%, France’s CAC 40 up 0.3%, and Britain’s FTSE 100 adding 0.4%. This contrasted with U.S. futures, where Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 0.2% and S&P 500 futures declined 0.1%.

The dollar strengthened to 157.16 yen, reflecting its status as a safe-haven currency during geopolitical uncertainty. Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management noted that ‘the dollar remains the market’s preferred storm shelter’ during periods of global uncertainty, as capital gravitates toward the deepest liquidity pools.

Market analysts characterized the previous day’s U.S. rally as a ‘classic relief rally’ rather than a sustained turnaround, with investors remaining cautious about prolonged conflict implications for inflation and economic stability.