Despite a new round of tariff impositions initiated by former US President Donald Trump in April 2025, China’s trade surplus soared to an unprecedented $1.19 trillion, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs. This remarkable figure represents a significant increase from the $992 billion surplus recorded in 2024. The surge was primarily driven by a 5.5% year-on-year increase in exports, which reached $3.77 trillion, while imports remained stagnant at $2.58 trillion.
However, this record trade performance presents a puzzling discrepancy when examined alongside China’s foreign exchange reserves. Data from the People’s Bank of China revealed that forex reserves grew by only $160 billion throughout 2025, reaching $3.36 trillion by December. This minimal increase means that merely 13% of the massive trade surplus actually flowed into the country’s reserves, continuing a pattern of stability within the $3.01-3.33 trillion range maintained over the past decade.
Financial columnist Dao Ge, based in Beijing, explains several factors contributing to this phenomenon. ‘The $992 billion trade surplus in 2024 wasn’t entirely earned in US dollars,’ Dao notes. ‘A substantial portion was settled in yuan and other currencies, meaning the actual dollar accumulation might have been approximately $200 billion.’ Additional pressures on reserve balances include outbound spending by Chinese tourists and students, profit remittances by foreign companies operating in China, and overseas investments by Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs).
Chinese SOEs have increasingly utilized renminbi for purchasing crude oil from heavily sanctioned nations including Venezuela, Iran, and Russia, as well as minerals from various African countries. These nations can then use the currency to acquire Chinese goods or convert it into global currencies through markets like Hong Kong.
The record surplus appears contradictory to the widespread narrative of manufacturing relocation to Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia, which has reportedly left numerous factory workers unemployed. Some international commentators have raised concerns about potentially inflated export data, alleging that certain companies might be fabricating export records to claim tax rebates illegally.
Notable cases include a Liaoning company that illegally obtained tax rebates worth 212 million yuan ($30 million) through fabricated export transactions, and a Wuhan-based supply-chain firm that created fictitious export records involving over 200 million yuan in offshore cargo value. According to Shanghai Metals Market, approximately 30% of China’s steel exports in 2023 and 2024 involved fake invoice-based exports.
The central government implemented new regulations effective October 1, 2025, to combat these practices, though comprehensive national estimates of their impact on trade statistics remain unavailable.
Wang Jun, Vice Head of the General Administration of Customs, attributes China’s strong trade performance to strategic policy support, robust domestic market demand, and industrial strength. Key drivers include targeted government measures to help exporters secure orders, China’s large consumer base sustaining import demand, and the country’s complete industrial system supporting export growth.
Despite these strengths, Wang acknowledges significant challenges ahead: ‘Global trade momentum is weakening as economic growth slows, geopolitical tensions persist, policy uncertainty remains high, and trade costs continue to rise.’ International organizations have subsequently downgraded their forecasts for global trade growth in 2026.
Nevertheless, China’s exports of high-tech products rose 13.2% year-on-year, contributing 2.4 percentage points to overall export growth. Notably, China became a net exporter of industrial robots for the first time. The country’s growing dominance in robotics was evident at CES 2026 in Las Vegas, where Chinese companies represented 21 of the 38 exhibitors showcasing humanoid robots, demonstrating rapid commercialization of robotics innovation.









