分类: business

  • Swiss travel retailer Avolta marks a new chapter in the Chinese market

    Swiss travel retailer Avolta marks a new chapter in the Chinese market

    Global travel retail and food and beverage leader Avolta, headquartered in Switzerland, has made its first exhibition appearance at the 2026 China International Consumer Products Expo (CICPE) held in Haikou, marking the start of a fresh, ambitious phase for the firm’s 16-year operation in the Chinese market.

    With a footprint spanning 70 countries, Avolta runs a diverse portfolio that includes duty-free shops, convenience retail outlets, and food and beverage locations around the world. In an exclusive interview with China Daily on the sidelines of the expo, Michael Wong, Avolta’s Managing Director for North Asia, highlighted that the CICPE offers an unmatched platform to demonstrate the company’s full global capabilities and deepen collaborative ties with domestic partners, particularly in China’s Hainan province.

    “We are pleased to be participating in this year’s expo for the first time as an exhibitor,” Wong stated. “It provides an important platform to present Avolta’s capabilities, strengthen relationships across the industry, and support closer connections between brands, partners, and markets.”

    Avolta’s journey in China dates back more than 16 years, with existing operations spread across major transportation hubs and cities including Shanghai Pudong International Airport, Shanghai Hongqiao International Airport, Chongqing, Shenzhen and Wuhan. Earlier this year, the firm marked a historic breakthrough when it secured the bid to launch new duty-free operations at Shanghai Pudong International Airport’s Terminal 1 and Satellite Terminal 1. This win is notable as it marks the first time in 26 years that an international operator has won such a large-scale duty-free tender in China’s key airport sector.

    Wong described the tender victory as a major milestone and the solid cornerstone for all of Avolta’s future business expansion across China. During the 2026 CICPE, the company took the opportunity to launch a key customer initiative: Club Avolta, its first global loyalty program. The program enables registered members to earn and redeem rewards across both retail and food and beverage outlets at more than 5,100 Avolta locations worldwide. To mark its expo debut, all new sign-ups from CICPE visitors receive complimentary automatic upgrades to gold membership, jumping directly from the standard entry-level silver tier.

    In addition to the loyalty program launch, Avolta also presented a carefully curated exhibition of top-selling products sourced from 12 of its key global markets, including Italy, France, Switzerland, and Japan, giving Chinese consumers and industry partners a first-hand look at the breadth of its global supply network.

    When discussing growth prospects in Hainan, Wong emphasized that Avolta sees strong, long-term potential in the region, driven by China’s Hainan Free Trade Port policy and the recent implementation of visa-free entry policies for international visitors that have already spurred a sharp rise in international tourist arrivals. The company is actively exploring collaborative opportunities across the island and stands ready to scale up its footprint the moment market conditions align for expansion.

    “We are very determined to grow in China in the long term, and we want to stay,” Wong said. “When the opportunity comes, we’re ready.”

    Beyond its core mission of bringing premium international brands to Chinese consumers and travelers, Avolta has also outlined a secondary strategic goal: supporting high-quality Chinese brands to access global markets through the company’s extensive international retail network, positioning itself as a two-way bridge connecting the Chinese market with global consumer markets.

    The 2026 China International Consumer Products Expo runs through Saturday in Haikou, Hainan, attracting hundreds of global brands and industry players from across the world seeking to tap into China’s growing consumer demand.

  • Hainan Expo: Why the world comes

    Hainan Expo: Why the world comes

    As one of China’s most anticipated high-profile consumer trade events of 2026, the China International Consumer Products Expo held in southern China’s Hainan Province has emerged as a powerful global gathering, attracting more than 3,400 brands spanning over 60 countries and regions around the world. For years, this annual expo has carved out a unique niche as a gateway for international brands to access China’s vast, rapidly evolving consumer market, and the 2026 iteration has reinforced its reputation as a can’t-miss event for global merchants looking to expand their footprint in Asia and beyond.

    The question on many industry observers’ minds this year is simple: what continues to make this Hainan-based expo such an irresistible draw for businesses across every consumer sector, from luxury goods to sustainable consumer tech, from artisanal food products to cutting-edge home goods? To unpack the appeal of the expo for global participants, China Daily sent correspondent Xia Ji to connect with international exhibitors on the ground, capturing unfiltered insights into what drives brands to commit time, resources, and exhibition space to the Hainan event year after year.

    Against a backdrop of shifting global trade dynamics and growing demand for access to China’s 1.4 billion consumers, the Hainan Expo has positioned itself as more than just a trade show. It serves as a platform for cross-border cultural exchange, partnership building, and trend forecasting, giving small and medium-sized international brands as well as multinational corporations the opportunity to connect directly with Chinese distributors, consumers, and industry leaders. This combination of market access, networking opportunities, and policy support for foreign businesses in Hainan’s free trade port framework has turned the expo into a magnet for global commerce, solidifying its status as a key annual event on the global trade calendar. The 2026 edition’s high participation rate, with more global brands joining than many previous iterations, signals sustained international confidence in China’s consumer market and the long-term value of the Hainan Expo as a trade catalyst.

  • Powerball is going international in an effort to build larger jackpots that draw more players

    Powerball is going international in an effort to build larger jackpots that draw more players

    One of the United States’ most famous lottery brands is making its historic leap across the Atlantic. Powerball, the game that has created thousands of millionaires across American states and territories, will officially welcome players from England, Scotland and the entire United Kingdom to its player pool starting this summer, under a newly announced partnership agreement.

    The landmark deal was revealed Tuesday by the Multi-State Lottery Association (MUSL), the U.S.-based organization that manages Powerball, and Allwyn UK, the current operator of the U.K. National Lottery. Regulators still need to greenlight the expansion: the agreement requires final approval from the U.K. Gambling Commission before the first U.K. Powerball tickets can go on sale.

    If approved, the expansion will mark a first for the 30-plus year old Powerball game: for the first time since its launch, players outside the United States will be able to participate and contribute to the game’s rolling jackpot pool.

    Matt Strawn, CEO of the Iowa Lottery and leader of the Powerball product team, framed the cross-border expansion as a natural evolution for the game. “We’re constantly looking for ways to make sure that we’re keeping Powerball culturally and commercially relevant,” Strawn said in comments after the announcement. “And this really is the next natural progression in doing just that.”

    For existing Powerball players in the United States, the expansion will bring no changes to how the game works. The $2 price per ticket will remain unchanged, and the long odds of claiming the top jackpot – 1 in 292.2 million – will also stay the same. The biggest benefit for U.S. players will be faster jackpot growth: adding millions of potential U.K. participants to the player pool means more ticket sales, which pushes the top prize up more quickly between rollovers.

    “Players consistently tell us in survey after survey that faster growing Powerball jackpots is what they’d like to see,” Strawn explained. “Not surprisingly, the higher the jackpots grow the more people play the game in a particular drawing. The more people play, the higher sales grow. The higher sales grow, the higher the jackpots get, the more people play.” It’s a self-reinforcing cycle that Powerball leaders expect will boost engagement on both sides of the ocean.

    For U.K. players, the launch of Powerball will unlock access to far larger top prizes than any existing domestic or European lottery currently offers. In 2022, a single winning Powerball ticket sold in California claimed a record jackpot of just over $2 billion, an amount that dwarfs the largest European lottery win on record. That same year, the biggest U.K. EuroMillions prize – a pan-European lottery also operated by Allwyn UK – hit £195 million (equal to roughly $265 million at the time), less than 15% of the record Powerball payout.

    Allwyn UK leaders say adding Powerball to the U.K. National Lottery roster aligns with their goal of bringing fresh excitement to British players. “Our ambition is to bring more games, more innovation and more excitement to The UK National Lottery — and it doesn’t get more exciting than Powerball, with its transformative jackpots and life-changing contribution to good causes,” Allwyn UK Chief Executive Andria Vidler said in a statement announcing the deal.

    While all players will compete for the same base jackpot amount, there are key differences between the U.S. and U.K. versions of the game to align with local regulatory and market norms. Estimated jackpot values will be listed differently in each country, due to fluctuations in currency exchange rates and differing advertising conventions: the U.S. advertises jackpots as the pre-tax value of the full annuity payout, while the U.K. advertises post-tax prizes. Additionally, U.K. jackpot winners will only be able to claim their prize through a 30-year annuity, unlike U.S. winners who can choose between the annuity or a one-time lump-sum cash payment – a option that nearly all U.S. jackpot winners choose. Secondary smaller prizes for non-jackpot winners will also have different values and structures in the two countries.

    Powerball is currently available to players in 45 U.S. states, plus Washington D.C., Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The core game rules will remain unchanged after expansion: players still select five numbers from a pool of 1 to 69 for the white balls, and one number from 1 to 26 for the red Powerball, and drawings will continue to be held three times a week on Mondays, Wednesdays and Saturdays. More than 31 million people participate in at least one U.K. National Lottery game each year, representing a massive potential new player base for Powerball. The expansion will have no impact on the operation of Mega Millions, Powerball’s main rival large U.S. lottery game, which will remain exclusive to U.S. players.

  • ‘Bit of pain’ worth long-term security from Iran, Bessent tells BBC

    ‘Bit of pain’ worth long-term security from Iran, Bessent tells BBC

    The ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran has sparked fierce debate over the trade-off between short-term global economic stability and long-term international security, as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has laid out stark worst-case projections that could tip the world into recession for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic.

    In an exclusive interview with the BBC, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent argued that a modest period of near-term economic hardship is a necessary sacrifice to eliminate what he frames as a growing Iranian threat to Western capitals. “I wonder what the hit to global GDP would be if a nuclear weapon hit London,” Bessent said. “I am saying that I am less concerned about short-term forecasts, than I am about long-term security. The biggest risk you can take is one you don’t know you were taking.” He claimed that recent US and Israeli strikes have eliminated the so-called “tail risk” of Iranian nuclear strikes against Western nations, noting that Iran had enriched uranium to 60% purity—close to the level required for a functional nuclear weapon—at the start of the conflict. He also pointed to Iran’s strike on Diego Garcia as evidence the country already possesses mid-range intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the United Kingdom.

    However, multiple official sources have pushed back on Bessent’s framing. The BBC has previously confirmed that the threat of an Iranian ballistic missile strike on London remains extremely remote, and Iran does not currently possess a nuclear weapon. A spokesperson for the UK government added: “There is no assessment Iran is trying to target Europe with missiles. But we have the military capability we need to keep Britain safe from any kind of attacks, whether it’s on our soil or from abroad. We are ready to defend the country, whatever the threat.”

    In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the IMF detailed the severe economic risks the conflict poses six weeks after it began in late February 2026. The closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy shipping, and the collapse of US-Iran peace talks have sent energy prices soaring, with crude prices peaking near $120 a barrel before moderating to $95 per barrel as of Tuesday.

    The IMF laid out two core scenarios for global growth. In the most severe outcome, if energy and food prices spike and remain elevated through 2027, global growth will drop below 2% in 2026—an outcome the IMF calls a near-certain global recession, a situation that has only occurred four times since 1980. Under this scenario, oil prices would average $110 per barrel in 2026 and rise to $125 in 2027, pushing global inflation as high as 6% next year and forcing central banks to implement aggressive interest rate hikes to cool price growth. IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas warned that a prolonged conflict would trigger spiraling inflation, rising unemployment, and widespread food insecurity in vulnerable nations, noting that even an immediate end to the conflict would leave an economic impact comparable to the 1970s oil crisis. Still, he added that the global economy is far less dependent on fossil fuels today than it was 50 years ago, softening the blow for consumers.

    In the more optimistic baseline scenario, where the conflict is resolved within the next few weeks and energy exports and production return to normal by mid-2026, global growth will slow to 3.1% this year—down just 0.2 percentage points from the IMF’s January forecast—before rebounding to 3.2% growth in 2027, a projection that remained unchanged from earlier estimates.

    The report also breaks down the uneven economic impact of the conflict across major economies and regions. Among advanced economies, the UK is projected to bear the brunt of the energy shock, with its 2026 growth forecast cut from 1.3% to 0.8% before a 1.3% recovery in 2027. Most Gulf energy exporting nations face steep slowdowns or outright contraction this year: the IMF projects Iran’s economy will shrink by 6.1% in 2026, before a 3.2% rebound in 2027 if the conflict ends soon—a projection that remains highly uncertain following US President Donald Trump’s recent announcement of a full blockade on Iranian port exports to halt all Iranian oil shipments. Qatar, home to the world’s largest liquefied natural gas refinery at Ras Laffan, faces an 8.6% contraction this year after the facility was struck by Iranian drones and missiles, leaving it non-operational for the foreseeable future. Iraq, Iran’s neighboring state, will see growth slow by 6.8% in 2026 before bouncing back to 11.3% growth in 2027.

    The IMF notes that national economic resilience depends on key factors including infrastructure damage, reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, and access to alternative export routes. For example, Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, which can carry up to 7 million barrels of oil per day from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea, allows the kingdom to avoid the worst disruptions. The IMF still projects 3.1% growth for Saudi Arabia in 2026, followed by 4.5% expansion in 2027, in line with broader forecasts for a regional upturn next year if energy markets normalize. The IMF cautioned, however, that this optimistic outlook could be revised downward if the conflict drags on and infrastructure damage worsens.

    Globally, the IMF cut its 2026 growth forecast for China to 4.4%, down 0.1 percentage points from January, while leaving its 2027 projection of 4% growth unchanged. One major beneficiary of the surge in global energy prices, the IMF found, is Russia, which has been under sweeping Western sanctions since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine four years ago. The IMF now projects 1.1% growth for Russia in both 2026 and 2027, up from earlier forecasts of 0.8% and 1% respectively, after Trump lifted all restrictions on Russian oil exports and temporarily unfroze 140 million barrels of Iranian oil for 30 days to curb global price spikes.

    European officials have pushed back against the easing of sanctions, warning that Russia is positioned to emerge as a winner from the conflict. “Energy prices are up, and that gives additional revenues for Russia’s war machine,” European Commissioner for finance Valdis Dombrovskis told reporters on the sidelines of the IMF summit in Washington. “Now is not the time to ease the pressure on Russia.”

  • 7-Eleven expects to close hundreds of its stores in North America this year

    7-Eleven expects to close hundreds of its stores in North America this year

    Global convenience retail leader 7-Eleven is set to undergo a major restructuring of its North American footprint, with plans to shutter hundreds of underperforming locations while shifting strategy toward wholesale fuel-focused outlets amid ongoing economic headwinds.

    Newly released earnings filings from parent company Seven & i Holdings Co., a Japan-based retail conglomerate, show that 7-Eleven’s North American operating subsidiary has approved the closure of 645 brick-and-mortar stores during the 2026 fiscal year. This net reduction of locations comes even as the brand opens 205 new stores across the U.S. and Canada in the same period, marking the first time in recent years that closures will far outpace new openings in the region.

    Seven & i’s official filings confirm that a portion of the planned closures will involve converting existing traditional convenience stores to stand-alone wholesale fuel outlets. The company has steadily built out this alternative store format in North America over the past half-decade, with the wholesale fuel network already topping 900 locations as of December 2025. As of press time, 7-Eleven has not released a full list of locations targeted for closure or shared additional details on the specific reasoning behind the restructuring plan; the Associated Press has requested further comment that has not yet been returned.

    Today, 7-Eleven boasts a global footprint of more than 86,000 stores spread across 19 countries, with the Texas-based North American subsidiary overseeing more than 13,000 locations across the U.S. and Canada. The planned cuts represent a continuation of the brand’s longstanding practice of culling low-performing stores on a regular basis, but the 2026 plan is far larger than previous rounds of cuts, coming amid a broader period of economic pressure on consumers worldwide.

    Persistent inflation that began before recent geopolitical unrest has already squeezed household budgets, particularly for low-income shoppers who make up a large share of 7-Eleven’s core customer base. In its April 9 financial report, Seven & i noted that even with overall moderate economic growth in North America during the 2025 fiscal year, personal consumption has softened noticeably, with inflation continuing to drag down discretionary spending among lower-income groups.

    The recent outbreak of conflict between the U.S.-Israel coalition and Iran has exacerbated these pressures, roiling global energy markets and driving a sharp spike in retail gasoline prices that cuts directly into both consumer disposable income and 7-Eleven’s fuel retail margins.

    Unlike the North American market, Seven & i’s international operations will see net growth in store counts over the coming fiscal year. Even the brand’s home market of Japan will follow this pattern: Seven-Eleven Japan plans to close 350 underperforming locations while opening 550 new stores, resulting in a net gain of 200 outlets.

    Parent company Seven & i projects that group-wide revenue will decline by 9.4% in the current fiscal year, hitting a projected total of roughly 9.45 trillion Japanese yen, equal to approximately $59.5 billion. The restructuring of the North American footprint comes as part of a broader corporate transformation launched under new leadership last year. Stephen Hayes Dacus took over as CEO of Seven & i in spring 2025, and has since outlined a new growth strategy focused on updating 7-Eleven’s core convenience offerings. Key priorities of the turnaround plan include expanding fresh food selections at existing stores and scaling up the brand’s 7NOW on-demand delivery service to capture new revenue streams in a shifting retail landscape.

  • ‘Pipe dream’: Turkey’s plan to redraw Middle East energy routes after Iran

    ‘Pipe dream’: Turkey’s plan to redraw Middle East energy routes after Iran

    Nearly a month into the Israel-Hamas conflict, Iran’s strategic control over the Strait of Hormuz has sent global energy markets into extreme volatility, prompting regional players to scramble for alternative supply routes to bypass the critical chokepoint. Turkey, a longstanding regional energy crossroads, is positioning the ongoing crisis as a pivotal opportunity to advance a slate of long-proposed energy infrastructure projects that would redirect Middle Eastern oil and gas to European and global markets away from the Strait of Hormuz.

    During a live interview with Anadolu Agency last week, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar laid out his full vision for these alternative routes, highlighting multiple projects that have sat dormant for years for political and economic reasons. Top of his list is connecting Iraq’s oil-rich southern Basra region to the existing underutilized Iraq-Turkey pipeline, which currently carries 1.5 million barrels of crude per day from Iraq’s northern Kirkuk field to Turkey’s Mediterranean export terminal at Ceyhan. Bayraktar also revived plans for a massive overland gas pipeline that would link Qatar’s giant North Field to Turkey, transiting Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria, before sending supplies onward to European markets. He also pushed for progress on the long-discussed Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline, which would carry 80 billion cubic meters annually of Turkmen natural gas across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan, then through Georgia to Turkey and European markets. Additional proposals include connecting Syrian oil fields to the existing Iraq-Turkey pipeline network and building a high-voltage electricity interconnector linking Saudi Arabia to Turkey via Jordan and Syria, aligning with a broader Saudi plan to connect Gulf power grids to Europe.

    Bayraktar emphasized that these projects would create stable alternative export routes for producers struggling with Hormuz-related disruptions, noting that the ongoing crisis has underscored the urgent need for diversified supply chains. “We are opening an alternative export route for you,” he said, adding that he hopes the current market volatility will push global and regional stakeholders to take the long-stalled proposals seriously. “But unfortunately, what we have been saying has not found a response up to now. Hopefully, this crisis will lead everyone into a process where they pause, think more seriously, and we can implement these projects.”

    Already, neighboring producer Saudi Arabia has leveraged its domestic East-West Pipeline to move crude through the Red Sea, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz entirely, while Iraq has begun exploring overland export options. The urgency for alternative routes grew after QatarEnergy declared force majeure on multiple long-term LNG supply contracts to customers across Europe and Asia last month, following Iranian targeting of Qatari energy facilities near the strait.

    However, energy experts have cast doubt on the feasibility of many of Turkey’s proposed projects, painting a mixed outlook that sees some schemes as relatively actionable while others face steep political, economic and security barriers. The Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline, for example, is now more politically viable than it has been in decades following improved relations between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, but it still faces significant unresolved hurdles. The project requires a 300-kilometer subsea pipeline across the Caspian Sea, connecting the Turkmen port of Turkmenbashi to Azerbaijan’s capital Baku, where it could link to existing export infrastructure including the South Caucasus Pipeline and Trans-Anatolian Pipeline. Experts estimate the subsea segment alone would cost roughly $2 billion, and scaling the pipeline to a commercially viable 20-30 billion cubic meters per year would require billions more in upstream development, compression upgrades and downstream expansion. Securing financing has also proven difficult, as European markets are increasingly shifting to LNG imports, and the project lacks long-term purchase commitments that would de-risk investment. While Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan have improved ties, both have yet to formally ratify the 2018 Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea, which would clear legal barriers for the pipeline and reduce opportunities for Russia and Iran to block the project.

    The proposed Qatar-Turkey gas pipeline, first floated as early as 2009, faces even steeper challenges. After the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, which blocked the project for years under Russian pressure, Turkey has pushed to revive it, but Qatar has repeatedly signaled it has no interest in moving forward. A Qatari foreign ministry statement in January 2025 confirmed the country remains committed to its existing LNG export model, which offers greater market flexibility than a fixed pipeline route. Justin Dargin, a senior fellow at the Doha-based Middle East Council on Global Affairs, noted that the project was originally estimated to cost $10-12 billion, but current inflation, security risks and political uncertainty would push the total price tag to $15 billion or more. The 1,500-kilometer pipeline crosses multiple national borders, requiring decades of sustained political alignment between Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and Turkey – a high bar in the volatile current regional environment. It would also expose Qatar to political transit risks that the country has spent decades avoiding, while its existing LNG infrastructure allows it to sell to global spot markets and diversify its customer base. “A multi-country pipeline would expose Qatar to exactly the kind of political leverage it has spent decades minimising,” Dargin explained. He added that while Gulf producers are increasingly expanding domestic bypass capacity like Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline and the UAE’s Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, the Qatar-Tur project would not operate within a single country, leaving it vulnerable to disruption from state and non-state actors aligned with Iran.

    Some of Turkey’s smaller proposals, however, are viewed as far more feasible. The plan to connect Syrian oil fields to the existing Iraq-Turkey pipeline, which currently has massive unused capacity, is seen as a relatively achievable near-term fix. Syria currently produces 100,000 to 120,000 barrels of crude per day, down from nearly 400,000 bpd before the 2011 civil war, so connecting existing output to the Turkey route would require relatively modest infrastructure investment. Wael Alzayat, executive director of the US-Syria Business Council, noted that while both Syrian and Turkish officials back the idea, obstacles remain: key oil producing areas are still controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces, with no complete handover to the new Damascus government, and armed groups including PKK elements and remaining Islamic State cells pose ongoing security threats. Alzayat added that developing Syrian production to increase output would require a few billion dollars in outside investment, which Damascus cannot currently afford, but connecting existing fields to the pipeline is technically straightforward. “It is more feasible and realistic than a Qatar-Turkey pipeline crossing Syria,” he said.

    In Iraq, the proposal to extend the existing Iraq-Turkey pipeline from Kirkuk down to Basra has also gained new urgency amid the Hormuz crisis. The Iraqi government needs $6.3 billion in monthly oil revenue to cover public expenditures, and lost more than $5.5 billion in March alone, highlighting the urgent need for additional export capacity. Currently, Iraq exports only 200,000 barrels per day through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan route, far less than the 3.5 million barrels per day it needs to cover monthly costs. Iraqi energy expert Salam Jabbar Shahab noted that political willingness to move forward with the Basra extension has grown substantially since the Hormuz crisis began, as the route would open a new outlet for southern Iraqi crude to European and Asian markets that bypasses the strait entirely. The biggest barriers, he added, are financing and security: the project is estimated to cost between $6 billion and $10 billion, which Iraq cannot cover on its own and would require loans from international financial institutions, and the pipeline would run from southern to northern Iraq through multiple restive regions, leaving it vulnerable to attacks from armed groups and political bargaining amid Iraq’s fragmented political landscape. Still, Shahab noted that the current crisis has given Iraqi policymakers a strong pragmatic incentive to move the project forward quickly.

  • Middle East conflict to fuel higher inflation in Australia, IMF warns

    Middle East conflict to fuel higher inflation in Australia, IMF warns

    Global economic watchdog the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a stark, long-term forecast for Australia’s economy, warning that skyrocketing cost of living pressures will continue plaguing household budgets until the end of 2027, driven largely by volatile oil prices stemming from ongoing military conflict in the Middle East.

    In its most recent regional economic outlook, the IMF projects that Australia’s inflation will stay well above the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)’s 2-3% target band for more than two years. Forecasts put national inflation at 4% in 2026, with only a gradual cooling to 3.2% by 2027. Alongside persistent price growth, the fund also predicts a marked slowdown in real GDP growth, which strips out inflation to measure underlying economic expansion. Real output is expected to dip to 2% in 2026 before falling further to 1.7% in 2027.

    The root cause of this extended economic pressure, officials and analysts agree, is the disruption to global oil markets triggered by the Middle East conflict between US-aligned Israel and Iran, which has threatened traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — a strategic chokepoint that carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s daily oil supply. Six weeks before the conflict began, global crude traded at roughly US$56 (AU$80) per barrel; today, prices hover around US$100 (AU$143) per barrel. For Australian motorists, every US$10 per barrel increase in crude translates directly to an extra 10 cents per litre at the petrol pump, squeezing household budgets that are already stretched thin.

    Treasurer Jim Chalmers has framed the crisis as an imported external shock, noting that Australian households are paying a steep price for instability thousands of kilometers away. “The costs and consequences of the conflict in the Middle East will be felt for some time, in Australia and around the world,” Chalmers said. Outlining the federal government’s policy response, he added: “We’re taking decisive action to address this global fuel challenge, by halving the fuel excise to help with the cost of living, holding petrol companies to account, working to secure more fuel and get it to where it’s needed in our economy, and engaging internationally.”

    The IMF’s warning extends far beyond Australia, emphasizing that the conflict has already tested the resilience of the global economy that has only just begun recovering from a series of overlapping shocks in recent years. “The global economy has, to date, withstood a series of shocks, yet another one — this time a military conflict engulfing the Middle East since the end of February — is testing this resilience,” the fund said in its report. “The conflict has already inflicted humanitarian costs, damaged critical infrastructure, and severely disrupted maritime and air traffic in the affected region.”

    For global economies including Australia, the spillover effects come through multiple channels: direct upward pressure on commodity prices, secondary ripple effects that push up long-term inflation expectations (which are particularly sensitive to shifts in energy and food prices), and market volatility triggered by risk-off investor sentiment.

    Domestically, the RBA has signaled that the oil price shock could derail progress on taming inflation, forcing potential adjustments to interest rates that would add further pressure to Australia’s 1.5 million mortgage holders. RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser acknowledged that policymakers lack high confidence that current interest rate settings are sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to target. “I wouldn’t say we have high confidence that we’ve set interest rates at the right level because you never do have that high confidence. But we’re going to have to monitor this new shock pretty carefully,” Hauser said. “I think it is easy to see that upside inflation pressure. More important for us now is to think through what the medium-term impact might be.” Hauser added that the current energy price spike from the Gulf conflict amounts to a “big income shock for Australia”, at a time when inflation is already “too high”.

    Before the conflict erupted on February 28, Australia’s inflation had shown early signs of easing, with the Consumer Price Index falling to 3.7% in February, down 0.1 percentage point from January. But that progress is now at risk, and already the shock has gutted economic sentiment across both households and businesses. Two of Australia’s largest four banks have released new surveys showing dramatic drops in confidence in the weeks since the conflict began.

    The monthly Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Confidence Index plummeted 12.5% to 80.1 in April, a reading deep in pessimistic territory — any score below 100 signals that more consumers hold negative expectations for the future than positive. National Australia Bank’s (NAB) monthly business survey found an even starker drop: business confidence fell 29 points to minus 29 index points, marking the second largest monthly fall in the survey’s 37-year history. Only the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the 2020 onset of the COVID-19 pandemic have seen steeper one-month drops in business confidence.

    Gareth Aird, head of Australian economics at NAB, noted that while the shock has so far had limited impact on actual business activity, the collapse in sentiment signals significant uncertainty ahead. “The outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East saw business confidence fall 29 points to minus 29 index points, the second largest monthly fall in the survey’s history, with falls of this magnitude previously only seen in the GFC and the onset of Covid,” Aird said. “Business conditions fell only one point to six index points in March, reflecting that while the global news backdrop has impacted sentiment, it is still early days in terms of the flow through to activity.”

  • Asia-Pacific reels from soaring energy prices

    Asia-Pacific reels from soaring energy prices

    The Asia-Pacific region is facing unprecedented economic pressure from skyrocketing energy costs, triggered by a sudden disruption to global oil shipping that pushed the international benchmark Brent crude past $101 per barrel on Monday. The crisis escalated rapidly after the United States implemented a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, on Sunday. Within 24 hours, commercial shipping through the strategic waterway came to a complete standstill, according to global maritime industry outlet Lloyd’s List. More than 20% of the world’s daily oil trade passes through the strait, making the shutdown an immediate shock to global energy markets.

  • Digital tide drives trade, tourism in rural Gansu

    Digital tide drives trade, tourism in rural Gansu

    Nestled across the arid Loess Plateau of Northwest China, Gansu’s rural communities have long relied on traditional agriculture and small-scale local trade to make a living. Today, a sweeping digital revolution is rewriting this narrative, turning remote villages into connected commercial hubs and breathing new life into local economies through the dual engines of e-commerce and cultural tourism.

    Where farmers once spent early spring only tuning plows and preparing seedbeds, many now split their days between field work and digital content creation. Local producers are mastering new tools: adjusting ring lights for clearer livestream feeds, stabilizing smartphone gimbals to capture sweeping views of the plateau, and speaking to tens of thousands of online customers in their native regional dialects. Women in rural courtyards promote hand-brewed vinegar and crispy traditional fried snacks, while young entrepreneurs trek into rolling fields to stream the plateau’s changing seasons to a global audience.

    One standout example of this shift is Tangqi Village, located in Qingyang City, where a government-backed assistance e-commerce studio has become a local community hub. Village officials have reinvented themselves as livestream hosts, using short-form videos and real-time streaming to showcase homegrown grains, fresh fruits and artisanal snacks to buyers across China. In just 10 days after launching, the studio recorded total sales exceeding 110,000 yuan ($16,016). Today, even 70-year-old villagers bring hand-harvested eggs and sun-dried goods to the studio, accessing national consumer markets without ever leaving their home community. Local data confirms that 135 households in Tangqi have already secured direct income gains from this digital e-commerce model.

    Deep in the Gansu hills, tiny Zhuangzimao hamlet—home to only 22 households—has taken this digital transformation even further. The community established an ecological farm in 2020, and every household now participates in livestreamed commerce. Some farmers demonstrate traditional soy milk grinding and fresh tofu making in real time, while others showcase the process of brewing aromatic yellow rice wine or sun-drying chili peppers into fine powder. Last year alone, Zhuangzimao’s total sales of local specialties surpassed 3 million yuan, with more than half of the village’s households recording annual incomes above 100,000 yuan. Beyond online sales, the village has leveraged its authentic portrayal of rural life online to draw offline tourists.

    Individual local entrepreneurs have also reaped the benefits of digital adoption. In Yangpo Village, Dingxi City, resident Zhou Jingang turned his small family courtyard into a standardized workshop for hand-made potato noodles, a beloved local staple. By building a following on mainstream social media and e-commerce platforms, he has scaled production to 1 metric ton of noodles per day, and now earns 100,000 yuan in annual net income.

    Unlike early rural digital projects that focused solely on direct product sales, Gansu’s current rural development strategy leverages the global consumer demand for authentic rural nostalgia, integrating agriculture, cultural heritage and tourism into a single sustainable growth model. Zhuangzimao’s success, in particular, stems from its commitment to preserving the unpolished, genuine character of traditional village life: residents still plaster walls with local mud and pave courtyards with reclaimed old tiles, leaning into this authenticity to win over online audiences.

    A typical livestream from the village captures this vibe perfectly: “It’s New Year! We’re using a big iron pot and a wood-fired stove to fry traditional dough snacks today,” a local villager says to her camera, surrounded by neighbors dressed in traditional red headscarves and floral aprons. This unscripted, unvarnished depiction of daily rural life has turned online engagement into tangible offline income. Once a remote, little-known hamlet, Zhuangzimao is now a national 3A-level tourist attraction. Last year, it hosted 150,000 domestic visitors, ranging from school study groups to landscape photography enthusiasts, who fill village courtyards to experience authentic home-cooked farm meals first-hand.

    Provincial data underscores the scale of this transformation across Gansu. According to the provincial department of culture and tourism, the region’s rural tourism sector recorded 657 million visitor trips between 2021 and 2025—the 14th Five-Year Plan period—generating total revenue of 201.54 billion yuan.

    Experts note that this shift marks more than just an adoption of new technology: it represents a fundamental change in rural development philosophy. “The core of this strategic support is cultivating a new generation of ‘new farmers’ who understand both the cultural resonance of rural life and modern digital business tools,” explained Mao Jinhuang, an economics professor at Lanzhou University. “This transition from selling agricultural products to selling rural scenery, authentic culture and immersive experiences is a profound shift in how rural communities approach development.”

    To address gaps in digital skills among rural residents, the Gansu provincial government launched intensive targeted training programs in 2025, designed for entrepreneurs returning to rural areas after working in cities. The curricula cover practical skills including e-commerce platform operations, local brand building, and access to small business financing. As digital technology continues to reshape Gansu’s rural economic landscape, Professor Mao emphasizes that nurturing cross-skilled local talent to bridge traditional rural heritage and modern entrepreneurial tools remains the key to sustaining long-term, inclusive growth across the region.

  • New rules aim to spice up Chongqing hotpot sector

    New rules aim to spice up Chongqing hotpot sector

    China’s culinary and economic hub Chongqing is preparing to usher in a new era for its world-famous hotpot sector, as the first-of-its-kind *Chongqing Hotpot Industry Development Promotion Regulations* are set to take effect on May 1. This landmark legislation is designed to standardize fast-growing industry practices, fuel long-term growth, and cement Chongqing’s global reputation as the undisputed “Hotpot Capital of the World”.

    A groundbreaking provision of the new rules enshrines Chongqing hotpot in legal definition for the first time, explicitly recognizing its unique regional origins and distinctive cooking techniques that deliver its signature blend of spicy, mouth-numbing, fresh, and aromatic flavors. According to Lou Zhenxin, director of the Legislative Affairs Office of the Chongqing Municipal People’s Congress Standing Committee — the body that approved the regulations in late March — the legal framework does more than set operating guidelines: it establishes a clear, protected brand identity for Chongqing hotpot and elevates its importance as both a regional cultural asset and a core economic pillar.

    The history of Chongqing hotpot stretches back more than a century to working-class roots. While the broader hotpot tradition spread across China during the Tang Dynasty (618–907 CE) and gained nationwide popularity by the Qing Dynasty (1644–1911 CE), the modern Chongqing style emerged in the late 1800s, when river port porters began simmering affordable leftover offal in bold chili oil and local herbs. The dish moved from street stalls to formal commercial establishments in the 1930s, when the Ma brothers opened Chongqing’s first dedicated hotpot restaurant, Maji Laozhengxing. Today, the Chongqing style is the global gold standard for spicy hotpot: the China Cuisine Association named Chongqing the nation’s official “Hotpot City” back in 2007, recognizing its unmatched concentration of top-rated hotpot establishments.

    For the local economy, the hotpot sector is far more than a tourist attraction — it is a foundational growth engine. Latest data from the Chongqing Hotpot Association shows that by 2025, the city was home to nearly 20,000 hotpot enterprises operating close to 40,000 restaurants across Chongqing. Nationwide, roughly one in three of China’s more than 500,000 hotpot restaurants trace their brand and heritage to Chongqing, and Chongqing-style hotpot outlets have expanded to more than 50 countries and 200 regions across the globe. In 2025 alone, the industry’s total output hit 360 billion yuan (equivalent to roughly $52.7 billion), accounting for 11.6% of Chongqing’s total annual GDP and supporting more than 1 million direct and indirect jobs. Back in 2023, the city formally integrated the hotpot ingredients segment into its official modern manufacturing cluster strategy, highlighting its outsize role in regional food processing and agricultural development.

    Even with this explosive growth, the sector has faced growing pains that threatened its long-term viability: inconsistent quality across operators, a lack of unified industry standards, and stagnant product innovation have held back scalable, sustainable expansion. To address these gaps, the Chongqing Hotpot Association began laying the groundwork for legislation back in 2022, conducting industry-wide research and translating on-the-ground needs from small restaurant owners and large manufacturers alike into the formal legal framework now set to take effect.

    “The core mission of these regulations is to clear the bottlenecks holding back industry growth through legal mechanisms, and push the sector toward transformation into a standardized, scalable, high-quality industry,” explained Pan Ling, deputy secretary of the Chongqing Hotpot Association. Pan added that the rules also set a precedent for food industry regulation across China, integrating cultural preservation and brand building alongside economic development. The regulations support the creation of iconic hotpot-focused cultural infrastructure, including dedicated hotpot food streets, a hotpot-themed museum, and annual industry events such as hotpot culture festivals and trade expos. It also prioritizes the preservation of traditional cooking techniques by supporting their inclusion on national and local intangible cultural heritage lists.

    To strengthen the entire supply chain, the regulations call for the development of specialized production bases, wholesale markets, and national consumption hubs, while incentivizing technological innovation in key areas such as seasoning manufacturing, soup base preservation, and cold-chain logistics. For global expansion, the rules encourage local businesses to build overseas ingredient storage facilities, open international chain locations, and develop cross-border e-commerce channels, pairing product exports with targeted cultural outreach to grow global recognition of the Chongqing hotpot brand.

    In addition to the new legal framework, Chongqing has led national efforts to develop unified standards for the hotpot sector over recent years. Existing standards already cover professional skill requirements for hotpot chefs and evaluation systems for master chefs and restaurant managers, while work is ongoing to finalize national standards for hotpot soup base products and consistent grading systems for spiciness and numbing flavor. A comprehensive national talent training and certification system is also outlined in the new regulations to ensure a skilled workforce for the growing sector.