分类： business

The sixth iteration of the China International Consumer Products Expo (CICPE) officially opened its doors on Monday in Haikou, the capital city of China’s southern Hainan Province, bringing together more than 3,400 brands from more than 60 countries and regions around the world who are eager to tap into China’s enormous consumer market.

For years, soybean producers across the U.S. Midwest have navigated a steady stream of financial challenges, and two recent global disruptions have pushed their profit margins to a breaking point, a joint investigation by Lee Enterprises and The Associated Press has found. What began as slow, long-term shifts in commodity markets and production costs has been compounded by trade policy conflicts and a new Middle East war, leaving many producers in precarious financial positions.

As one of the United States’ most valuable agricultural exports, soybeans form the backbone of Midwest farm incomes, with uses ranging from livestock feed and human food products to clean energy biofuels. But for years, market conditions have worked against American producers. Global soybean supplies have hit consecutive record production levels in recent seasons, driven largely by Brazil’s rise to overtake the U.S. as the world’s top soybean producer years ago. This global glut has kept soybean prices consistently depressed, according to agricultural economists.

“Global production just keeps hitting record after record after record,” explained Chad Hart, an agricultural economist at Iowa State University. “Large supplies across the global market have directly pushed prices down.”

At the same time that selling prices have stayed low, production costs for Midwest soybean farmers have climbed steadily. U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data shows that core farm expenses, including seed and pesticide, have risen incrementally for years. Operating costs for soybean production have remained at elevated levels since 2020, and are projected to climb again by 2026, the agency reports. Beyond input costs, skyrocketing Midwest cropland values have added extra pressure: most regional producers rent at least a portion of their farmland, according to Joana Colussi, a research assistant professor in agricultural economics at Purdue University, meaning higher land values translate directly to higher annual rental costs.

These pre-existing financial strains were severely worsened by the 2025 U.S.-China trade war sparked by sweeping tariffs imposed by the Trump administration in April of that year. China, which was the top purchaser of U.S. soybeans for decades, responded with retaliatory tariffs and effectively halted purchases of American soybean shipments, cutting off a critical export market for Midwest producers and dragging soybean prices even lower.

By late 2025, the two world powers reached a trade agreement that required China to purchase 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans by January 2026, followed by annual purchases of at least 25 million metric tons over the subsequent three years. China has met its initial purchase target, and the Trump administration rolled out a $12 billion temporary aid package in December to support farmers affected by the trade dispute. Even with these interventions, however, lasting damage has already been done, according to producers and analysts.

The American Soybean Association estimates that even after accounting for federal assistance, Midwest farmers lost nearly $75 per harvested acre of soybeans from the 2025 crop. Beyond immediate near-term losses, the trade conflict also accelerated a long-term shift that has weakened U.S. market share: China has increasingly turned to Brazil and other competing soybean exporters to meet its demand, eroding the U.S.’s longstanding dominance in the global soybean export market.

“Global competitors of U.S. soybean producers were the clear winners from the trade war,” noted Joseph Glauber, former chief economist at the USDA between 2008 and 2014. “The U.S. no longer holds the dominant position in global soybean exports that it once did.”

Just as farmers began adjusting to the aftermath of the trade war, the outbreak of conflict between the U.S., Israel and Iran created a second wave of cost shocks. After joint attacks on Iran on February 28, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — a critical global chokepoint for oil and commodity shipping — came to a near-standstill, sending global oil prices soaring. The disruption also halted exports of nitrogen fertilizers produced in the Persian Gulf, cutting off access to key fertilizer ingredients and sending prices skyrocketing. Urea, the most widely traded nitrogen fertilizer, saw particularly steep price increases.

While soybeans do not require nitrogen fertilizer to grow, nearly all Midwest soybean producers rotate their crops with corn, which relies heavily on nitrogen inputs. The Middle East supplies roughly half of the world’s urea, and Qatar and Saudi Arabia rank among the top sources of U.S. fertilizer imports, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.

A two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran was announced on April 7, including an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, shipping traffic has remained slow amid ongoing disagreements over Israeli military actions in Lebanon, and urea prices still remain far higher than pre-conflict levels. While many producers purchased fertilizer ahead of the 2026 spring planting season, farmers who delayed their purchases are now stuck paying premium prices.

The conflict also pushed gasoline and diesel prices sharply higher, adding extra costs for farm equipment and transportation of crops. While oil prices have fallen slightly since the ceasefire was announced, the disruption will have long-lasting financial impacts for farmers, according to Seth Goldstein, senior equity analyst at investment research firm Morningstar. Critical export facilities for oil, chemicals and other key commodities in the Middle East were damaged or destroyed during the conflict, he explained, and it will take months if not years for global supply chains to return to normal operations. For Midwest soybean farmers already operating on razor-thin or negative margins, every additional cost increase adds to the growing financial pressure.

On April 13, 2026, the UAE-China Business Promotion Conference kicked off in China under the theme “From Vision to Value”, bringing together cabinet ministers, senior government officials and top industry executives from both nations to chart new paths for cross-border collaboration, investment and innovation. The high-level gathering was held alongside the official visit of Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, who led a senior UAE delegation to the country.

As a landmark outcome of the conference, delegates from the two sides signed 24 bilateral Memorandums of Understanding, a move widely expected to deepen and expand the already robust economic, trade and investment partnership between the UAE and China.

In his keynote opening address, Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi, the UAE’s Minister of Foreign Trade, highlighted the critical role of the conference in fortifying bilateral cooperation and unlocking untapped growth opportunities for both economies. “The UAE and China share a decades-long, deeply rooted economic partnership, forged over years of collaboration and anchored in a shared commitment to shared prosperity,” Al Zeyoudi stated.

The minister also shared an encouraging milestone for bilateral trade: non-oil bilateral commerce between the two nations crossed the $100 billion threshold for the first time in 2025, surging by a record 24.5 percent year-over-year to hit $111.5 billion. “We will continue advancing close coordination across priority sectors to deliver sustainable economic outcomes that benefit the people and businesses of both our countries,” he added.

Current trade data underscores the strength of the bilateral relationship: China has retained its position as the UAE’s largest trading partner, contributing roughly 11 percent of the UAE’s total non-oil trade volume and holding the top spot as a source of UAE imports. For its part, the UAE remains China’s largest single trading partner across the Middle East and Africa, accounting for more than one-fifth of China’s total non-oil trade with the entire region over the past 10 years.

The conference was co-hosted by the UAE Ministry of Foreign Trade and China’s Ministry of Commerce, with co-organization support from the Embassy of the United Arab Emirates in Beijing and the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products.

The ongoing conflict in Iran has upended global energy markets, with widespread disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint through which most of the world’s traded oil and natural gas flows. With the strait mostly shut and most of its pre-conflict cargo bound for Asian markets, regional governments are racing to conserve existing supplies and rebuild depleted energy reserves, even as a fragile temporary ceasefire struggles to hold. Soaring gasoline prices have already hit consumers across the United States and Europe, and the crisis has laid bare the deep geopolitical and economic risks of global dependence on fossil fuels. For most energy-importing Asian nations, the shock has delivered severe economic pain. But against this backdrop, analysts and industry experts predict China, the world’s largest buyer of Iranian crude oil, is uniquely positioned to turn the global energy disruption into a major strategic and economic gain.

Decades of targeted investment have left China as the unrivaled global leader in the clean energy technologies the world is now scrambling to adopt. China controls more than 70% of global electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing capacity and roughly 85% of global lithium-ion battery cell production, according to data from the International Energy Agency. Its domestic industry giants, including EV manufacturer BYD and battery producer CATL, already dominate global export markets for these products, and years of policy prioritization have cemented this lead: China’s current five-year development plan running through 2030 reaffirms clean technology as a core national strategic priority.

This position is the result of a deliberate policy shift dating back more than a decade, when Chinese President Xi Jinping integrated long-term energy security into the country’s broader national security framework. While fossil fuels still make up the majority of China’s domestic energy mix, consistent government support has allowed its clean energy sector to outpace development in most other major economies, particularly the United States.

Under the second Donald Trump administration, U.S. energy policy has doubled down on fossil fuel development, leaning on the country’s vast domestic oil and gas reserves to pursue what Trump has called “energy dominance,” centered on the slogan “drill, baby, drill.” Washington has prioritized expanding exports of liquefied natural gas while scaling back federal support for renewable energy development. Even before the Iran conflict broke out in late February, this created what analysts call a “bifurcation” in global energy markets, with the world’s two superpowers pushing competing visions for the future of energy and leaving other nations to navigate complicated choices about which path to pursue.

Now, the energy shock from the Iran war is tilting that balance sharply in China’s favor. Global demand for affordable clean energy technology has spiked as governments, businesses and households wake up to the fragility of global fossil fuel supply chains. Data from London-based energy think tank Ember shows Chinese exports of solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles hit a record high of nearly $22.3 billion in December 2025, a 47% year-over-year increase, with most shipments bound for Southeast Asia and Europe. Credit rating firm Fitch Ratings projects investment in renewable power and battery storage will surge across energy import-dependent nations, particularly in Western Europe, as countries look to insulate themselves from future fossil fuel price shocks.

Financial markets have already priced in this expected growth: in March 2026, shares of CATL and BYD traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange rose roughly 24% and 11% respectively, as investors bet on rising global demand for Chinese clean energy products.

China’s EV sector was already outpacing U.S. and European rivals before the conflict, with aggressive expansion of production capacity and affordable pricing helping Chinese brands gain significant market share across emerging markets in Southeast Asia and beyond. Analysts say that growth will only accelerate in the wake of the energy crisis. “The energy shock is going to help the Chinese industry globally and hurt the American car industry globally,” said Amy Myers Jaffe, senior fellow at New York University’s Center for Global Affairs. While high U.S. tariffs have largely blocked Chinese EVs from the American market, surging domestic fuel prices are expected to further boost BYD’s sales growth within China’s own large EV market, according to Chris Liu, an analyst at research and advisory firm Omdia.

Early data from around the world already shows a sharp shift in consumer and government behavior in response to rising fuel costs. In Pakistan, which previously relied on the Strait of Hormuz for 80% of its oil imports, decades of gradual renewable expansion has already softened the blow of the current crisis. By December 2025, Pakistan had imported more than 50 gigawatts of Chinese solar panels as part of its national renewable rollout. Analysts from Renewables First and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air estimate that if current fuel prices remain high, existing solar capacity will save Pakistan $6.3 billion in fossil fuel import costs over the next year. “The shock isn’t as big as it would have been without solar,” said Nabiya Imran of Renewables First.

In the United Kingdom, British renewable energy group Octopus Energy reported that EV leasing demand jumped more than a third in the first three weeks of March 2026 compared to the pre-conflict period in February, alongside sharp increases in sales of rooftop solar systems and customer inquiries about solar energy. Even in Southeast Asia, where regional EV maker VinFast has moved to offer discounts to offset rising fuel prices, the crisis has reinforced interest in transitioning away from gasoline-powered vehicles. While analysts note it will take time for long-term purchasing trends to shift, as consumers wait to see how the Iran conflict evolves, the prolonged price shock is expected to act as a lasting catalyst for EV adoption.

Even Indonesia, the world’s largest coal exporter, is accelerating its transition to electric transportation, a shift that stands to benefit Chinese clean energy firms. In March 2026, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto announced a major national push into EV production and charging infrastructure development. Chinese firms already hold a dominant position in Indonesia’s clean energy supply chain: they signed more than $54 billion in deals with Indonesia’s state utility in 2023, and added a further $10 billion pledge during Prabowo’s 2024 visit to Beijing. “There will be direct financial benefits to Chinese companies,” said Sam Reynolds, energy analyst at the U.S.-based Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).

Experts say the conflict has fundamentally vindicated China’s long-term approach to energy policy and geopolitics. “China’s approach to energy sector development and geopolitics has been completely validated by the Iran conflict,” Reynolds noted. Li Shuo, director of the Asia Society Policy Institute’s China Climate Hub, added: “They are at the very forefront of this, more so than any other countries in the world, certainly more so than the United States.”

This reporting was contributed by Ghosal in Hanoi, Vietnam, Delgado in Bangkok, and AP Business Writer Paul Wiseman. The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations, with the AP retaining full editorial control over all content.

As 60-year-old fifth-generation farmer Doug Bartek stepped into a Nebraska grain bin this spring, shoveling soybeans toward a conveyor amid gusty plains winds, the weight of mounting industry stress was far heavier than any load of grain. For Bartek, who chairs the Nebraska Soybean Association and runs a 2,000-acre operation near Wahoo where three-quarters of the land is rented, this planting season has brought a tangled web of crises that have left many American soybean producers trapped between skyrocketing input costs and stagnant, depressed crop prices.

Bartek’s anxiety is far from unique. Across the U.S. Midwest, which produces the bulk of the nation’s soybean crop, thousands of commercial grain farmers are grappling with overlapping economic pressures that have pushed many toward negative margins, cash flow crunches, and even the risk of bankruptcy. What began as a gradual trend of rising costs and oversupplied global markets has been compounded in recent months by trade policy fallout and geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, creating a perfect storm for an industry that forms the backbone of American agriculture.

Soybeans have grown from a minor crop to one of the United States’ most valuable agricultural exports over the past 60 years. Driven by rising international demand, particularly from China, production exploded in the 1990s, and today soybeans and corn are the two dominant row crops across U.S. farm country. But even before recent geopolitical and trade disruptions, farmers faced systemic financial headwinds. Global soybean production has consistently hit new record highs in recent years, largely fueled by expanded output from Brazil, which overtook the U.S. as the world’s top soybean producer years ago. The resulting global supply glut has kept soybean prices stubbornly low for nearly a decade.

At the same time, every major cost associated with farming has climbed steadily, and in many cases sharply. U.S. Department of Agriculture data shows overall farm production expenses, including seed, pesticides, equipment, and land, have trended upward for decades, with soybean operating costs remaining elevated since 2020 and projected to rise again by 2026. For many Midwest farmers who rent at least part of their land — a common arrangement across the region — rising rental rates have added an extra layer of strain. Bartek notes that many absentee landowners, unfamiliar with the struggles of on-the-ground farming, are hiking rents to cover their own rising property taxes, passing that cost directly onto producers.

Paul Mitchell, a professor of agricultural and applied economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, says the combination of low commodity prices and bloated input costs has left many farmers in a critical liquidity crunch. Long-term industry consolidation has amplified this pressure: the number of U.S. farms has shrunk for decades, as larger, more capital-intensive operations have absorbed smaller struggling farms. Today’s modern commercial farm requires far more financial reserves than it did a generation ago, leaving producers far more vulnerable to sudden market and cost shifts.

Market forces are not the only drag on farmer profits. In 2025, sweeping tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Chinese goods triggered a full-scale trade war, with Beijing responding by placing retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans — China was the top global buyer of American soybeans at the time, representing a critical export market for Midwest producers. The result was an immediate collapse in soybean prices that left farmers who needed to sell to cover operating costs and mortgage payments facing devastating losses.

While the two nations reached a trade deal later that year, with China committing to large annual soybean purchases and the Trump administration rolling out a $12 billion emergency aid package for affected farmers, industry experts and producers agree the damage was lasting. Even with federal aid, the American Soybean Association estimates farmers still lost nearly $75 per harvested acre of soybeans from the 2025 crop. More importantly, the trade war pushed China to permanently shift its purchasing toward competing suppliers, primarily Brazil, accelerating the long-term decline of U.S. soybean market share in China. Today, U.S. soybean exports remain 15% to 20% below pre-trade war levels, a gap that has never been filled by other global markets, according to Iowa State University agricultural economist Chad Hart.
“We’re not nearly as dominant in the world export market as we used to be,” explained Joseph Glauber, former chief economist at the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Global competitors have reaped permanent benefits from the trade shift caused by the dispute, he added.

The most recent shock to hit soybean farmers came from the February 2026 Iran conflict, after joint U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran triggered a near-total shutdown of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global chokepoint for energy and commodity trade. The shutdown sent global oil prices soaring, pushing up the cost of gasoline and diesel that farmers rely on for planting, harvesting, and transporting crops. More critically, the disruption cut off access to key fertilizer exports from the Persian Gulf: roughly half of the world’s traded urea, a widely used nitrogen fertilizer, comes from the Middle East, which is a top supplier of U.S. fertilizer imports.
While soybeans do not require nitrogen fertilizer, nearly all U.S. soybean farmers also grow corn, which depends heavily on nitrogen inputs. The result was an immediate, dramatic spike in fertilizer prices that has not fully abated.
A two-week ceasefire was reached in early April that called for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but ongoing tensions over related conflicts have kept shipping slow, and fertilizer prices remain far higher than pre-conflict levels. While many farmers locked in fertilizer prices last fall by purchasing ahead of planting season, producers short on cash last year are now facing unmanageable input costs, according to Dave Walton, an Iowa farmer and vice president of the American Soybean Association. The conflict also damaged critical energy and chemical export facilities in the Middle East, and supply chain disruptions for crop chemical inputs will persist long after the ceasefire, according to Seth Goldstein, senior equity analyst at investment research firm Morningstar.
For many corn and soybean farmers like Chris Gould of Maple Park, Illinois, the cumulative effect of higher fuel and fertilizer costs makes a negative return nearly inevitable this growing season. “It’s hard to say if I’m gonna come out ahead or behind on this whole deal,” Gould said. “But I suspect I’m going to come out behind.”

The cumulative strain of these overlapping crises is already showing up in national farm health metrics. While still relatively low by historical standards, farm bankruptcies continued to climb in 2025, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. A late March survey of 400 U.S. farmers conducted by Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture found that nearly half of respondents reported their operations were in worse financial shape than one year prior. Goldstein warns that if input costs continue to outpace crop price growth, the U.S. will see more bankruptcies in coming months.

For Bartek, who has farmed Nebraska soil for 43 years, the thrill of spring planting remains — but the uncertainty about the future has never been heavier. He has watched neighbors lose their farms to bankruptcy or forced retirement auctions, and even heard of farmers dying by suicide amid unmanageable financial stress. Today, he questions whether he made the right choice in helping his son purchase his own farm just a few years ago. Like many of his peers across the Midwest, Bartek compares modern commercial farming to a high-stakes gamble, where producers bet millions of dollars on an unpredictable growing season, with increasingly little guarantee of a return that will cover their costs.