As Canadians across the nation gathered this week to mark Canada Day, celebrating 159 years of confederation, the festive atmosphere has masked deep growing strains that are putting the country’s longstanding unity to an unprecedented test. Two separate separatist movements, one in the western energy powerhouse of Alberta and another in the francophone province of Quebec, have gained new momentum in recent months, setting the stage for pivotal votes that could reshape the future of the world’s second-largest country by land mass.
In Alberta, a years-long grassroots separatist push has built enough support to trigger a non-binding sovereignty referendum on October 19. The vote will ask Albertans whether they support splitting from Canada and moving forward with a legally binding separation vote at a later date. Opinion polling places support for separation between 25% and 30% — a share that has caught political observers off guard, even as long-simmering Western alienation has been part of Canadian politics for generations.
Many backers of Alberta’s separatist movement argue the resource-rich province has been systematically sidelined by federal policymakers in Ottawa for decades. They point to sweeping federal environmental rules that they say have blocked pipeline construction, stifled development of Alberta’s vast oil and natural gas reserves, and cost the province billions in lost economic opportunity.
André Lecours, a political science professor at the University of Ottawa, notes that today’s separatist drive in Alberta is far different from the historical regional frustrations that have defined the province’s relationship with Ottawa. He calls the current movement a direct offshoot of modern right-wing populism, pointing out that nearly all the leading separatist groups in the province formed during the COVID-19 pandemic, when federal public health rules stoked deep anger toward Ottawa among many Western Canadians. Notably, no elected provincial representative has yet openly and formally backed full separation, a key distinction from Quebec’s decades-long organized sovereignty campaign.
Half a country away in Quebec, the situation follows a different but equally fraught trajectory. The province, which is majority French-speaking and has long defined itself as a distinct cultural society within Canada, has already held two independence referenda, in 1980 and 1995, with the “yes” side falling just short of a majority both times. Today, the sovereigntist Parti Québécois holds a lead in polling for the province’s October 5 general election. The party has pledged to organize a third independence referendum by 2030 if it secures a governing majority.
Public support for Quebec sovereignty has held steady at roughly 30% in recent years, but the Parti Québécois has capitalized on widespread voter frustration with incumbent parties to surge into the lead ahead of the fall vote. Party leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has already released a 500-plus-page policy blueprint laying out his plan for a fully independent Quebec, cementing the issue as the central theme of the upcoming election.
Standing at the center of these overlapping tensions is Prime Minister Mark Carney, a former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England who cut his teeth watching the United Kingdom’s chaotic Brexit process unfold. Carney, who was raised in Edmonton, Alberta, has framed national unity as his top priority in the coming months, saying Canada is “worth fighting for” and promising to campaign aggressively to keep the country intact.
On Canada Day itself, Carney traveled to his hometown of Edmonton for a symbolic visit, where he was set to lay out his case for a unified Canada to a province that has grown deeply disillusioned with federal policy. Drawing on his experience with Brexit, Carney has warned that separatist leaders make unrealistic promises to voters during referendum campaigns, claiming separation will be easy, and that Albertans could retain their Canadian passports and currency even after leaving the country. He argues that these false claims risk undermining Canada’s global reputation as one of the most stable and attractive destinations for international business — a status the country cannot afford to lose.
Historians and political analysts say the current strains on Canadian unity stem from the country’s unique origins and geography. JDM Stewart, a prominent Canadian historian and author of a book on Canadian prime ministers, notes that Canada’s enormous size and deeply rooted regional identities have created tensions that have persisted since the country’s founding in 1867. “Because it’s so big, and because it is so regional, it does create tensions that have been with us since the beginning, and we still wrestle with them today,” Stewart explained.
Carney has already taken steps to address regional grievances, hoping to shore up support for national unity ahead of the fall votes. In Alberta, he brokered a landmark deal to approve a long-sought oil pipeline to the Pacific Coast, ending decades of acrimony between Ottawa and the province over energy development. The agreement marked a major reset in relations between the federal government and Alberta, which had been locked in conflict over climate and energy policy for generations. This week, Alberta is set to formally ask the Carney government to fast-track the million-barrel-per-day project, which would unlock billions in new revenue for the province. In Quebec, Carney has offered a C$10 billion infrastructure package to fund new hospitals, affordable housing, and public transit projects, aiming to build goodwill with Quebec voters ahead of the provincial election.
In a pre-Canada Day video address, Carney acknowledged that past federal energy policies left many Albertans feeling alienated, saying “What should have brought us together began to divide us.” He framed his approach as one focused on shared progress, saying his goal is “focusing on what we can build together.” Stewart notes that this approach follows the playbook of successful past prime ministers, who balanced a strong vision for national unity with a willingness to listen to regional grievances and compromise. “Provinces are sometimes a bit like people, they want to be seen and they want to be heard,” Stewart explained. “In a time like this, you need to be able to sell a vision for Canada.”
Despite the rising tensions, most Canadians remain optimistic that the country will stay united. A recent poll from the Angus Reid Institute finds that a large majority of Canadians believe neither province will actually leave the federation. Stewart argues that the tradition of compromise and pragmatism that has defined Canadian politics since its founding will hold the country together once again. “Most Canadians really feel happy about the country, and are happy to keep working to make it work, and do the bit of compromise that has really been the secret sauce,” he said. “Compromise and pragmatism has been what has kept this country together.”