LAS VEGAS — Ahead of the opening kickoff of soccer’s biggest global tournament, Fox Sports is leaning into a familiar narrative to hype its 2026 FIFA World Cup coverage: a second American sports miracle. The campaign leans on 1980 “Miracle on Ice” hero Mike Eruzione, who captained the unheralded U.S. college hockey team to a stunning upset of the dominant Soviet Union squad at the Lake Placid Olympics. Just like that iconic underdog win, a U.S. men’s national soccer team lifting the World Cup trophy this year is a long shot by every measure.
Odds posted by major U.S. sportsbooks including BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook and DraftKings reflect the low probability of a U.S. victory, with prices ranging from 40-1 to 60-1 for the American side. Longtime sports handicapper Bruce Marshall says he is unimpressed with both the team and its high-profile head coach Mauricio Pochettino, the former manager of top European clubs Paris Saint-Germain, Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea. Marshall also brushed off the team’s pre-tournament 3-2 friendly win over Senegal as irrelevant to their World Cup prospects.
“I’m not that high on the USA team,” Marshall said. “I don’t care what they did against Senegal. I thought Pochettino was a vanity hire. Listen, his track record isn’t as great as people make it sound. He’s had some great teams.”
Despite the long odds, patriotic American bettors are still pouring money into the U.S. team, a trend that has left major sportsbooks facing significant financial exposure. If the unthinkable happens and the U.S. pulls off a soccer equivalent of the 1980 hockey miracle, bookmakers could face massive payouts.
“We’ve definitely seen a lot of patriotism being shown with USA being our biggest liability,” said Mark Bickerdike, Caesars’ head of soccer trading. “If USA get off to a good start and progresses, our liability is only going to grow. But, in general, we’re happy with the prices, so let’s lay what we think are the right prices and sort of go from there. Should USA make it to the semifinals and finals, we might be hanging onto our seats a little bit.”
France and Spain emerge as consensus favorites
Across all three major sportsbooks, France and Spain stand out as the co-favorites to claim the 2026 World Cup title. Both are listed at +450 on BetMGM and Caesars, while DraftKings matches that price for Spain and puts France just behind at +475.
Spain enters the tournament on a high note after claiming the 2024 European Championship title with a win over England, and will look to add a second World Cup crown to their 2010 victory. But the side faces a key injury concern: 18-year-old breakout star Lamine Yamal and winger Nico Williams are both managing hamstring injuries heading into the tournament. Marshall notes that the young attacking pair were the driving force behind Spain’s Euro win, and their health will make or break the team’s chances.
“I think Spain will win if Yamal and Nico Williams are OK,” Marshall said. “They won the Euros because those two guys flipped the whole thing. They stretched the field so much. They had so much speed on the wing. If one or both of them isn’t 100%, Spain won’t be quite the same team it was at the Euros.”
If Spain stumbles, defending power France is well-positioned to capitalize. Led by global superstar Kylian Mbappé, France is aiming for its third World Cup title in the last eight tournaments, and its fifth trip to the final over that same stretch.
A deep and competitive field of contenders
Beyond the two top favorites, a slate of other top nations have realistic shots at a title run. England, Brazil, Argentina and Portugal all hold odds of 9-1 or better across all three major bookmakers. DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello noted that this year’s tournament features an unusually competitive field, with no dominant frontrunner separating from the pack.
“There’s no real gap between two or three teams and then everybody else,” Avello said. “I would call it a pretty normal ladder for a future book. You’ve got a couple of teams at the top that are shorter prices. I think it’s balanced out pretty good. I don’t think there’s any clear-cut favorite here.”
The final World Cup for two legendary stars
This tournament will almost certainly mark the final World Cup appearance for two of the sport’s all-time greats: Argentina’s Lionel Messi and Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo. The prospect of either legend claiming one last major title has captured fan and bettor interest alike, driving increased wagers on both sides.
“That always piques customers’ interest,” Bickerdike said. “That is arguably our biggest driver. Although Portugal have been playing fairly well recently, if you look at the likes of Spain, they’re probably a more in-form team. It’s obviously always the big debate: Who’s the greatest? Is it Messi or is it Ronaldo? It’s going to be their last World Cup, and going out on a high is sort of a dream scenario.”
In-game betting set to surge
While live in-game wagering is not a new innovation, its popularity has exploded in recent years thanks to mobile betting apps that make placing mid-match wagers faster and easier than ever. For soccer specifically, in-game betting accounts for a larger share of total handle than any other sport, industry leaders say, and that trend is expected to hold throughout the World Cup.
“The in-game play is going to be really huge,” Avello said. “When you look at all the sports that we book, I think soccer percentage-wise has the bigger in-game play than any other sport.”