The ongoing military conflict between the U.S. and Israel against Iran has created unprecedented pressure on global oil markets, sending shockwaves through the international aviation sector and leaving summer travel planners facing uncertainty over ticket costs and flight availability.
The head of the International Energy Agency has issued an urgent warning: European nations could face critical jet fuel shortages in as little as a matter of weeks, a shortfall that would force both domestic European carriers and international airlines flying into the continent to slash flight numbers dramatically. Already, the global benchmark price of jet fuel has more than doubled in just over a month, jumping from roughly $99 per barrel at the end of February to a peak of $209 per barrel in early April. In response, airlines across the globe have moved quickly to offset these rising costs, implementing higher checked bag fees and adding new fuel surcharges to passenger tickets.
In one of the most high-profile examples of the conflict’s impact on commercial air travel, Air Canada announced Friday that it will temporarily suspend all service to New York City’s John F. Kennedy International Airport from June 1 through October 25, a move designed explicitly to cut the carrier’s overall fuel consumption and reduce cost exposure. Air Canada is far from alone: major U.S. carriers including United Airlines and Delta Air Lines, alongside pan-European giant Air France-KLM, Scandinavian carrier SAS, Asian operators Philippine Airlines and Cathay Pacific, have all trimmed route networks, lifted ticket prices, and warned that further hikes will be implemented if the conflict disrupts oil shipments through the critical Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global oil supplies pass daily.
Industry analysts note that the extreme volatility of current oil markets makes long-term planning nearly impossible for airlines, prompting a cautious approach that will keep fares elevated until geopolitical tensions ease. “It’s very hard for the airlines to make predictions in this environment, so they’re going to be conservative, and that’s why it’s likely that their prices will remain elevated for some time until things really stabilize,” explained Shye Gilad, a former commercial airline captain and current professor at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business.
While upward pressure on fares and fees is unavoidable for 2025 late spring and summer travel, industry experts emphasize that consumers still have actionable strategies to limit the impact on their travel budgets, ranging from smart booking practices to flexibility and loyalty program utilization.
### Act Early and Avoid Restrictive Fares
Travel experts warn that the common “wait-and-see” approach to booking, where consumers hold out for lower fares hoping for a quick end to the conflict, carries unusual risk this year. The longer the conflict drags on, the closer it gets to the peak summer travel season, when demand already outpaces available capacity.
Even if a lasting ceasefire or full peace agreement is reached in the coming weeks, restoring jet fuel production and distribution to normal levels will take months, meaning price relief will not be immediate, according to Henry Harteveldt, airline industry analyst and president of the Atmosphere Research Group. Recent geopolitical shifts have only underscored this uncertainty: Iran’s sudden reversal of an earlier decision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, paired with former U.S. President Donald Trump’s commitment to maintaining a tight blockade on Iranian oil exports, have left reliable oil flow from the Persian Gulf far from guaranteed.
“My advice to travelers is this: If you find a flight whose schedule fits yours, with a fare you can afford, and on an airline you can at least tolerate, book it,” Harteveldt said. “But — and I cannot emphasize this enough — do not book a Basic Economy fare.”
Basic Economy tickets, the cheapest fare class offered by most airlines, come with severe restrictions that leave little flexibility for changing plans. For most North American carriers, Basic Economy tickets cannot be changed or canceled for a refund or travel credit after the standard 24-hour booking window closes, meaning travelers are left with no recourse if their plans shift. Paying a slightly higher fee for a standard Economy ticket unlocks far more flexibility to adjust travel plans, Harteveldt added. Gilad echoed this advice, noting that paying a small premium for a fully refundable ticket gives travelers an additional advantage: if fares drop significantly after booking, passengers can cancel their original reservation and rebook at the lower rate.
For travelers looking to lock in the lowest possible fares, longstanding industry guidance still holds: international flights typically hit their lowest price point between two and five months before departure, while domestic trips are cheapest when booked three to six weeks in advance. Last-minute bookings, which already command a premium under normal market conditions, will see even steeper price increases this year, Gilad said. “Remember, especially if you’re traveling on the major airlines, they’re going to have more ability to adjust fares. If you book too close to your travel date, you’re going to pay more. The farther out you can book, the better.”
### Stay Flexible To Unlock Lower Fares
Travelers who are not tied to a specific departure date or destination can unlock significant savings by adjusting their plans. Shifting departure or return dates by just one or two days, moving from peak travel periods like weekends and holidays to less popular midweek slots, often cuts hundreds of dollars off the total ticket price.
Being open to alternate destinations can also yield major savings. For example, a flight departing from the U.S. to one major European city can be hundreds of dollars cheaper than a flight to a neighboring capital. Thanks to extensive low-cost carrier networks and high-speed rail connections across most of Europe, flying into a cheaper, alternate airport still leaves travelers easy access to their intended final destination. For travelers open to exploring new options, flight search tools like Skyscanner’s “Explore Everywhere” feature let users compare fares across all possible destinations from their departure airport to find the lowest available prices.
Similarly, considering alternate departure airports can lead to major savings. Major international hub airports typically offer more competition and lower fares than small regional airports. In many cases, booking a short connecting flight or taking a train to a major hub, then flying long-haul from there, still results in a lower total cost than flying directly from a local regional airport — for example, taking a short train from Milwaukee to Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport before a long-haul international flight.
### Pack Light To Avoid Added Fees
Many major U.S. airlines have raised checked bag fees in recent months in response to rising operating costs, so sticking to a carry-on bag whenever possible eliminates this extra expense entirely. For travelers who cannot pack light, planning ahead is critical: most airlines charge significantly higher fees to add checked bags closer to the departure date, especially within the 24 hours before a flight.
### Leverage Loyalty Points And Credit Card Rewards
As fares rise, the value of unused airline and credit card loyalty points has increased, and most airlines have not raised the number of points required for award tickets at the same pace as cash fares, according to Adam Morvitz, CEO of points.me, a leading travel rewards redemption search platform. Airlines still need to fill empty seats, Morvitz explained, and offering award seats at attractive point pricing is a proven strategy to boost load factors.
Even travelers who do not have enough points to cover a full round-trip ticket can redeem points to cover one leg of the journey, freeing up cash for other travel expenses. Morvitz noted that most travelers redeem points directly through their credit card’s booking portal, where points are typically worth roughly 1 cent per point. Transferring credit card points to an airline’s own loyalty program almost always unlocks better value, as most major credit card issuers partner with a wide range of global airlines.
For example, American Express Membership Rewards points can be transferred to Air France-KLM’s Flying Blue program. Even travelers who do not intend to fly Air France can use those points to book award tickets on Flying Blue partner carriers, including Delta Air Lines, Morvitz explained. “Points are a form of wealth, and consumers should recognize that those points increase spending power,” he said.
For travelers who do not already have a travel-focused credit card, new cardmember sign-up bonuses can often provide enough points to cover an entire summer flight after meeting the card’s minimum spending requirement. Even for occasional travelers, the sign-up bonus alone typically delivers more points than the incremental points earned from flying regularly, Morvitz said. Points can be earned on everyday spending, from groceries and dining out to gas purchases, and many travel cards include additional perks like free or discounted checked bags that cut down on extra travel costs.