The United Arab Emirates continues to demonstrate extraordinary economic resilience despite escalating regional tensions, according to top financial experts. Maurice Gravier, Group Chief Investment Officer at Emirates NBD Wealth Management, drew compelling parallels between the UAE’s strategic positioning and Switzerland’s historical neutrality during times of European conflict.
Speaking at the launch of the Annual Global Investment Outlook for 2026, Gravier emphasized that the UAE’s diplomatic wisdom and policy stability have positioned it as one of the Middle East’s safest nations. “Switzerland thrived despite lacking natural resources and sea access—advantages that the UAE possesses in abundance. With wise diplomatic policies, a country can prosper even amidst surrounding troubles by avoiding direct conflict,” Gravier stated during his address.
The economic data substantiates this resilience. The UAE’s real GDP significantly exceeded its 5% growth projection for the previous year, while non-oil foreign trade spectacularly surpassed the $1 trillion milestone in 2025. This performance occurs against a backdrop of heightened US-Iran tensions that have prompted some airlines to suspend regional operations and created market uncertainties.
Emirates NBD’s comprehensive report, titled ‘Eyes Wide Open,’ projects a modest deceleration in non-oil activity across the GCC bloc for 2026, primarily due to base effects following several years of exceptional post-pandemic growth. The financial institution forecasts weighted average non-oil growth of 4.4% in 2026, slightly down from an estimated 4.8% in 2025, with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar expected to remain regional outperformers.
Gravier highlighted the UAE’s unique advantages, noting that “all planets are aligned for the UAE and GCC as a whole.” The institution maintains an average oil price forecast of $60 per barrel for 2025 while expressing particular optimism about the UAE’s artificial intelligence capabilities and unparalleled global connectivity advantages.
The UAE’s firm diplomatic stance, including its January 26 declaration prohibiting the use of its territory, airspace, or waters for military operations against Iran, further reinforces its commitment to regional stability amid the escalating tensions between the US and Iran that have included previous attacks on Iranian military sites.