The race for the vacant federal seat of Farrer, left open by the departure of former opposition leader Sussan Ley earlier this year, has erupted into controversy after the Liberal-National Coalition formalized a preference deal that places right-wing populist party One Nation ahead of Climate 200-supported independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe. The deal, revealed this week, has drawn sharp criticism from Milthorpe, who argues the Coalition’s decision stems from deep-seated anxiety that Pauline Hanson’s One Nation will eliminate their candidates from contention entirely.
Farrer’s by-election has shaped up as a tight two-horse race between Milthorpe and One Nation’s candidate David Farley, even as both the Liberal and National parties maintain their own candidates in the contest. In tight marginal contests like this, preference flows between candidates often decide the final outcome, making pre-election preference agreements high-stakes political moves.
Milthorpe, who grew up in a National Party-voting household in Cootamundra and once supported Sussan Ley in multiple elections, said she never would have considered running as an independent if regional communities had not been consistently failed by successive major party governments. “If we hadn’t been so let down in the regions by successive governments I can easily imagine running under the Liberal or Nationals banner,” she explained. “But I decided to run as an independent because for decades the parties have acted in their own self-interest, not in the interests of our community.”
Responding to the Coalition’s preference deal, Milthorpe said the agreement served no purpose other than protecting the major parties’ own political standing. “The Coalition has done a deal with One Nation because they are worried One Nation will wipe them out,” she said. “We will never know what One Nation offered the Liberal/National Parties to strike this deal, but what we do know is this isn’t about Farrer. This is a decision made for the good of the Coalition, not for the good of our community.”
Milthorpe drew a clear contrast between her own priorities and those of her One Nation opponent, noting that Farley would always be beholden to party leadership based in Queensland. “I vow to fight every single day for the people of Farrer and only the people of Farrer,” she said. “My One Nation opponent will have to vote every single time with his party boss from Queensland. The parties have not been listening to us, so I expect most voters will return the favour by not listening to their suggestions of who to vote for.”
Preference documents published by candidate campaigns lay out the full order of recommendations. Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski instructed supporters to rank her first, National candidate Brad Robertson second, and Farley fourth. For his part, Farley recommended voters put Robertson second, Butkowski third, and placed Milthorpe second last at 11th on his ranking.
National Party Leader Matt Canavan, who has campaigned extensively in Farrer in the lead-up to the by-election, pushed back against criticism of the deal in a social media statement. “There is a lot of BS being spread about preferences in the Farrer by election,” he wrote. “But the local news has reported it right. The Nationals are preferencing One Nation ahead of the teal backed candidate because she is backed by people that support net zero and water buybacks.”
The preference deal comes amid ongoing controversy for One Nation, which has faced sustained pressure in recent weeks over the party’s decision to rehire Sean Black, a man convicted of rape. One Nation leaders Pauline Hanson and former National Party leader Barnaby Joyce have both faced scrutiny over the rehiring decision, though that controversy has not been mentioned in public justifications for the preference deal.