The United Arab Emirates has reached an unprecedented all-time high in crude oil production just one month after withdrawing from the Saudi-led Opec alliance, new data shows, as the Gulf producer shrugs off geopolitical risks surrounding Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz to seize full advantage of its new market autonomy.
In a recently published report released Friday, data from the International Atomic Energy Agency confirms the UAE pumped 4.1 million barrels of crude per day in June. This marks a dramatic 600,000 barrel per day increase over the country’s 2025 average production of 3.5 million bpd, and it outstrips the UAE’s prior record output of 4 million bpd set in 2020, a period when the Opec+ alliance was fractured by a brutal price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia.
The sharp production surge aligns with longstanding assessments from energy analysts that Abu Dhabi had long felt constrained by production quotas set under Saudi leadership within Opec. Over recent years, the UAE has poured billions of dollars into expanding its total oil production capacity, but repeatedly raised objections to Saudi Arabia’s coordinated supply cuts, which were designed to prop up global crude prices and blocked the UAE from maximizing its output.
Abu Dhabi formalized its exit from Opec in May, a move that came amid a broader rift with Saudi Arabia that extends beyond energy policy to include sharp disagreements over conflicts in Yemen and Sudan, as well as diplomatic stances toward Israel. The withdrawal has already drawn public approval from the Trump administration, which has prioritized keeping global energy prices stable amid the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign against Iran.
Geopolitical turmoil surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global oil supplies transit, has stirred widespread market volatility since the outbreak of the war in late February. At the peak of tensions earlier this year, when both Iran and the U.S. imposed blockades on the waterway, international benchmark Brent crude climbed above $100 per barrel. Contrary to the worst-case price spikes many analysts predicted, however, crude markets stabilized far faster than forecast.
Analysts attribute the contained price growth to two key factors: a historic release of strategic petroleum reserves from Western nations, and a 30% cut to China’s crude import volumes, which reduced overall global demand. This combination of expanded supply and softened demand has acted as a critical buffer for the fragile global economy, though the market has not been entirely unscathed: prices for key refined products including liquefied petroleum gas, diesel, and jet fuel have rallied significantly. Additionally, Asian energy buyers, who rely heavily on Gulf oil exports, have faced far steeper price hikes than customers in the United States and Western Europe.
The IAEA’s report also notes that while crude volumes are returning to global markets from the Gulf, refined product exports from the region remain less than 50% of pre-war levels. Despite this, the UAE’s ability to maintain consistent oil exports underscores its success in mitigating risks from Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz.
The UAE operates a crude oil pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz entirely, delivering oil to the export terminal at Fujairah Port on the country’s east coast. The route is not entirely risk-free, however, as it remains vulnerable to potential Iranian drone attacks. In a June report, Reuters revealed the UAE paid billions of dollars to Iran in exchange for a halt to cross-border attacks, a major policy reversal for the country, which had joined the U.S. and Israel in launching dozens of strikes on Iranian targets since the outbreak of the war.
Maritime intelligence sources add that the UAE has also moved oil through the Strait of Hormuz using so-called “dark vessels” that operate with their automatic identification transponders turned off to hide their movements. The country has built its own dedicated fleet of oil tankers for these operations, and has also secured capacity from independent shipowners willing to accept the risk of Iranian strikes in exchange for far higher shipping rates.