For the first time in more than half a century, the women’s singles draw at the US Open has produced a semi-final line-up that defies the sport’s recent era of chaos and inconsistency. All four of the tournament’s top seeds — Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina, Jessica Pegula, and Coco Gauff — battled through three dramatic, tightly-contested opening rounds to reach the final four, a milestone not achieved at the New York Grand Slam since 1975. This historic grouping also marks the first time the world’s top four ranked players have advanced to a Grand Slam women’s semi-final since the 2009 Wimbledon Championships, a shift that has tennis analysts buzzing about a potential new era of stability for the women’s game. Since 2020 alone, 13 different players have claimed Grand Slam women’s singles titles, compared to just seven on the men’s tour, a stat that underscored the unpredictable nature of women’s tennis in recent years. This historic line-up came as a surprise even to Gauff, the 22-year-old American defending champion who reacted to the news with simple wonder: “Oh, wow.”
Former British number one tennis player Annabel Croft expressed her enthusiasm for the unprecedented match-up in comments to BBC Radio 5 Live, saying, “How amazing – it doesn’t get much better than that does it? It has felt fantastic the whole tournament – I just feel like I’ve been more enthused about looking forward to the match-ups this Grand Slam than any I can remember. We’ve been blessed with the amount of intriguing matches we’ve had. You’re seeing these warriors out on court.”
All four players entered the final week of the tournament with a shot at claiming the world number one ranking once play concludes, adding an extra layer of stakes to the historic competition. The first semi-final, scheduled for Thursday U.S. time (00:00 BST Friday), pits top seed and two-time defending US Open champion Sabalenka against third seed Jessica Pegula, the only remaining player in the draw yet to claim her first Grand Slam title. The two have built one of the most competitive rivalries on the WTA Tour, facing off 13 times over the course of their careers, including meetings in the 2023 US Open semi-finals and 2024 US Open final, both of which ended in victory for Sabalenka. Pegula has beaten Sabalenka four times in tour-level play, however, and says beating the four-time major champion at the Grand Slam level is a hurdle she is determined to clear. “It’s fun to look at it like a rivalry. I think that’s what motivates me,” Pegula said. “I know that she’s definitely pushed me to become a better player, so I always respect and appreciate that aspect of our rivalry. I know she hasn’t maybe had the best results this summer, but I know that she has a lot of confidence playing here at this tournament, and she’s going for a three-peat.”
Sabalenka, who is vying to become the first woman to win three consecutive US Open titles since Serena Williams achieved the feat in 2014, shared her excitement for the high-stakes match-up. “I’m loving playing against her because it’s a battle, because it’s a fight, and I love being under pressure and going through tough challenges,” she said. The second semi-final will pair second seed Elena Rybakina, the 2022 Wimbledon and 2024 Australian Open champion, against fourth seed and home crowd favorite Coco Gauff. By advancing to the semi-finals, Rybakina has already secured her spot as the new world number one when the WTA rankings update on Monday, bringing an end to Sabalenka’s 99-week consecutive reign at the top of the sport. Despite the milestone, Rybakina has downplayed the significance of the ranking, calling it “just a number” and insisting her full focus is on claiming her third Grand Slam title. BBC tennis correspondent Russell Fuller noted that the timing of the ranking shift adds extra incentive for Rybakina to win the tournament: “It’s never quite the same if you become world number one having lost a Grand Slam final or semi-final just beforehand, so she will be trying to cap off an absolutely perfect couple of weeks by winning the title.”
Standing between Rybakina and the title is Gauff, the 2023 US Open champion who will carry the full support of the home crowd on the iconic Arthur Ashe Stadium court. After suffering fourth-round exits at the US Open in 2024 and early 2025, Gauff says she has entered this year’s tournament with a far more balanced perspective than in previous campaigns. “Sometimes you’re just so focused on the now, now, now, because you want it now, and obviously you want to take advantage of your opportunities,” she said. “In the grand scheme of things, [I’m] definitely sitting here in a different mindset and perspective than I was last year. It inspires me a little bit more to keep working, as I see how much I have improved in a year.” Rybakina holds a recent advantage in the head-to-head, having rallied from a set down to beat Gauff in the semi-finals of the Canadian Open last month, but Gauff leads the overall series 2-1. Regardless of the outcome, Gauff says she plans to leave everything on the court: “I’m going to have some aces hit on me and some winners hit on me, but I’m going to keep fighting and give it my all. That’s all I can do.”