标签: South America

南美洲

  • Lula wins fourth term in dramatic Brazil elections comeback

    Lula wins fourth term in dramatic Brazil elections comeback

    In a historic and fiercely contested Brazilian presidential race, 80-year-old incumbent left-wing leader Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has claimed a landmark fourth term in office, overturning a first-round deficit to defeat right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro in a dramatic political upset. Official electoral data confirmed Lula garnered 51.79% of the total valid votes, translating to a 4.4 million-vote lead over Bolsonaro’s 48.21% share, marking the first time a presidential candidate has won a Brazilian national election after trailing in the opening round since the country’s 1988 return to full democratic rule.

    The race followed a tense final polling day marked by an unprecedented last-minute two-hour extension of voting hours, ordered by the Supreme Court just as originally scheduled closing times approached. The dual requests for extended polling came from both competing camps: Lula’s campaign argued that widespread public transit shortages left thousands of voters in populous São Paulo state and Bahia unable to reach polling stations, while Bolsonaro’s team cited severe heavy rainfall across parts of southern Brazil and São Paulo as a barrier to voter access. The eleventh-hour ruling created minor operational disruptions, as a small number of local polling sites had already locked their doors and could not resume operations, but Supreme Court President Kassio Nunes Marques – a judicial appointee of the challenger’s father, disgraced former president Jair Bolsonaro – formally validated the final results, confirming the extension did not compromise the integrity of vote counting or the broader electoral process.

    The outcome defied widespread pre-second-round projections, after Flávio Bolsonaro, a sitting federal senator running on the political legacy of his father, secured 47% of first-round votes on 4 October to edge out Lula, who took 45%. Lula’s campaign orchestrated a high-turnout mobilization push in the intervening four weeks, targeting the 33 million eligible voters who abstained from the first round. The strategy delivered record results: the gap between first-round and second-round abstention rates was the largest recorded in any Brazilian presidential run-off since 1989, driving a surge of support that carried Lula across the finish line.

    Addressing jubilant crowds that flooded the streets of central São Paulo to celebrate, Lula – a former steelworker who previously served two consecutive terms between 2003 and 2010, and a third partial term starting in 2023 – framed the victory as a decisive rebuke of toxic political tactics. “This election is a loss for negativity, lies, and the forces that sought to undermine our democratic fabric,” he told supporters, before declaring “long live democracy” to roaring cheers. He went on to pledge that his fourth term, running through 2030, would be the most inclusive and responsive in Brazilian presidential history: “This will be the term where I listen more closely to the Brazilian people than any leader before me, no exceptions.” His vice-president Geraldo Alckmin hailed the result, noting “You have, for the second time, saved Brazilian democracy.”

    In stark contrast, Flávio Bolsonaro rejected the outcome entirely during a press conference, claiming the result was “inexplicable” and “impossible” and publicly demanding the entire election be annulled. His remarks echoed the anti-democratic rhetoric of his father, who is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for a 2022 coup attempt launched after he lost that year’s presidential race to Lula. Leading Brazilian electoral law experts uniformly dismissed Bolsonaro’s annulment demand as legally unfeasible: Fernando Neisser of the São Paulo Institute of Lawyers noted the 4.4 million-vote margin is far too large to be overturned by procedural challenges, while academic Alberto Rollo added that the Brazilian constitution enshrines fixed presidential election dates, creating an insurmountable legal barrier to voiding the results.

    The watershed victory positions Lula to steer Latin America’s largest economy through a fraught geopolitical landscape defined by open hostility from U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration, which has advanced the self-styled “Donroe Doctrine” to assert unilateral U.S. dominance across the Western Hemisphere. Flávio Bolsonaro had secured explicit U.S. backing earlier in the year during a White House meeting with Trump, and his defeat ensures Brazil will remain at diplomatic odds with the Trump administration. Lula explicitly addressed this dynamic during his victory address, asserting that Brazil “will not accept being anyone’s backyard” as he commits to an independent foreign policy.

    Lula’s win also defies a broader regional political shift that has seen voters in Argentina, Chile, and Colombia swing toward right-wing incumbents and reject progressive leadership in recent electoral cycles. Global leaders have lined up to congratulate Lula on his victory, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen declaring “Democracy and multilateralism have won in Brazil.” French President Emmanuel Macron pledged to deepen bilateral cooperation to build “a more just world,” while Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez framed the outcome as proof that “the comeback of global progressivism has just begun.” South African President Cyril Ramaphosa celebrated the result as a milestone for the global south, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari committed to expanding longstanding bilateral friendly ties, and Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa Azin noted that regional nations share common challenges and will gain far more from collaborative action than division.

  • Lula wins fourth term in Brazil but faces hostile Congress and divided country

    Lula wins fourth term in Brazil but faces hostile Congress and divided country

    Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s iconic veteran left-wing statesman, has claimed a landmark fourth presidential election victory after a fiercely contested runoff race that defied widespread political forecasts and a broader regional shift toward conservative governance. The hard-fought contest saw Lula, a former metalworker who has dominated Brazil’s progressive political landscape since his first presidential bid in 1989, overcome right-wing rival Flávio Bolsonaro in a stunning late turnaround that few political analysts predicted after Bolsonaro narrowly edged out Lula in the 4 October first-round vote.

    This latest electoral triumph adds to Lula’s prior two consecutive terms in office from 2003 to 2010, and his 2022 electoral comeback that returned him to the presidency in January 2023. The path to this 2026 runoff win was far from straightforward: just three weeks after trailing in the first round, Lula’s campaign reignited through mass grassroots street mobilizations and a sweeping, targeted social media outreach push that galvanized his core base of working-class and progressive supporters. His victory breaks a clear regional trend across Latin America, where electorates across major economies including Argentina, Chile, and Colombia have voted out incumbent administrations to install conservative heads of state in recent election cycles.

    Lula is set to be sworn in for his new four-year term on 5 January 2027, facing the most constrained political landscape of his decades-long political career, with overlapping domestic and international hurdles to navigate. On the global stage, the Donald Trump administration in Washington has made no secret of its preference for a conservative leader at the helm of the 213-million-person South American nation, even though it did not formally endorse Flávio Bolsonaro directly – a contrast to its explicit backing of right-wing victors in recent Colombian and Honduran presidential polls. The Trump White House views Latin America as a core sphere of U.S. strategic influence, prioritizing regional allies that align with its defense, security and trade agendas, while actively seeking to curtail Beijing’s growing economic and geopolitical footprint across the Western Hemisphere. Brazil, a major oil producer that hosts the world’s second-largest rare earth mineral reserves, stands as the only large South American nation not led by a conservative administration, with Lula long perceived as a Beijing-aligned leader. During the campaign, Bolsonaro had pledged to tightly align Brazil’s foreign policy with Washington, while Lula publicly warned the U.S. against electoral interference and vowed that Brazil would “never fit into anyone’s backyard.”

    While the result is a source of frustration for U.S. policymakers, it has been met with widespread relief from global environmental advocacy groups. Environmentalists had warned that a Bolsonaro victory would hand expanded regulatory power to Brazil’s powerful agribusiness and mining lobbies, rolling back Amazon rainforest protections that Lula’s 2023 administration had worked to enforce. Activists pointed to the record-breaking Amazon deforestation and wildfire rates recorded during the presidency of Flávio Bolsonaro’s father, former far-right leader Jair Bolsonaro, arguing that a return to relaxed environmental regulations would trigger irreversible ecological collapse in the critical rainforest ecosystem, a key global carbon sink. Aerial footage captured by Greenpeace during the 2025 UN COP30 climate summit in Brazil’s Maranhão state had already documented devastating wildfire activity across large swathes of the Amazon, amplifying these concerns.

    Despite the celebrations among Lula’s progressive base, the election results lay bare Brazil’s deep societal polarization, with over 48% of participating voters casting their ballots for Bolsonaro. Domestically, Lula will be forced to govern alongside the most ideologically right-wing national congress in Brazil’s post-democratic restoration history, after Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party secured the largest legislative gains in concurrent legislative elections. Even with the Workers’ Party’s proven ability to mobilize massive grassroots rallies and turn out loyal supporters in the runoff, Lula faces a steep uphill battle to deliver on his campaign promises of bridging the country’s bitter partisan divides through an inclusive “new way of governing” that prioritizes equitable economic opportunity for all Brazilians. By the end of his upcoming fourth term, Lula will be 85 years old, making the policy challenges he faces far more daunting than those he navigated in his three prior stints in national office.

  • Venezuelan opposition leader María Machado returns after months in exile

    Venezuelan opposition leader María Machado returns after months in exile

    After more than 10 months spent in forced exile, prominent Venezuelan opposition figure María Corina Machado has arrived back on national soil, stepping into a deeply fractured, high-stakes political environment that has shifted dramatically since she fled the country late last year.

    The landmark homecoming was first announced by Machado herself in a post on social media platform X on Sunday, where she shared a direct, rousing message to her supporters: “I am here. With you.” Mere minutes later, her close political ally Edmundo González Urrutia — the former presidential candidate who stood in for her in the 2024 general election — confirmed the news publicly, writing, “I am thrilled to announce to you that our leader, my dear María Corina, is on Venezuelan soil.”

    Machado’s departure from Venezuela in December 2024 was to travel to Norway to accept a Nobel Peace Prize recognition, but shortly after she left the country, in January, a cascading series of political upheavals unfolded. The United States detained her long-time political rival, incumbent President Nicolás Maduro, after which the Trump administration formally backed Maduro’s deputy Delcy Rodríguez as the nation’s legitimate leader. Rodríguez was subsequently sworn in as interim president, and soon after signed a landmark bilateral oil agreement with the U.S. government.

    González Urrutia struck an optimistic tone in his follow-up remarks to supporters, stating, “Today is a very important day for Venezuelans. Our sovereign voice returns with her to lead and guide this process!” He also confirmed that he plans to rejoin Machado on Venezuelan territory in the near future to push the nation forward “toward freedom.”

    A senior advisor to Machado revealed back in September that over the preceding weeks, the opposition leader had made seven separate attempts to re-enter Venezuela, all of which were blocked by authorities. At this stage, full details of Machado’s immediate policy and political roadmap remain unconfirmed, though she has repeatedly stated in public remarks that she will mount another presidential bid if free and transparent elections are scheduled.

    A longstanding, unyielding advocate for participatory democracy in Venezuela, Machado secured a landslide victory in the 2023 independent opposition presidential primary — a vote organized outside the jurisdiction of Maduro’s state-aligned electoral body — taking more than 90% of the total ballots cast. Despite that overwhelming mandate from opposition voters, the Maduro administration issued a formal ban barring Machado from holding any public office, leveling unsubstantiated accusations of electoral fraud and tax evasion against her. Machado has consistently rejected all the charges, framing them as entirely politically motivated efforts to sideline her from electoral politics.

    When the official 2024 national presidential election was held, González Urrutia stood as the opposition’s official standard-bearer in Machado’s place to challenge Maduro. The state-run National Electoral Council, which has long been criticized for close ties to the ruling administration, declared Maduro the winner in the contest, but refused to release full, precinct-level vote tally documents to verify the result. The opposition coalition immediately contested the outcome, releasing thousands of certified copies of local vote count sheets to back its claim that González Urrutia was the actual winner of the popular vote.

    In an exclusive statement provided to Margaret Brennan of CBS News, a key U.S. broadcast partner of the BBC, a spokesperson for Machado described her return as “a major step toward a democratic transition and free, fair, and verifiable presidential elections in the near future.” The development has already sparked widespread debate across Venezuela’s political factions, as observers brace for a potentially pivotal shift in the country’s long-running democratic stalemate.

  • El Salvador president says bodies found in Haiti are not those of hostages

    El Salvador president says bodies found in Haiti are not those of hostages

    El Salvador’s high-profile president Nayib Bukele has publicly refuted earlier unconfirmed reports that four human remains handed over to Salvadoran special forces deployed in Haiti belonged to the four missing Salvadoran air technicians, stating unequivocally that the recovered corpses are not his country’s personnel. The sequence of events began when the four Salvadoran crew members, who were serving as part of the UN-backed Gang Suppression Force (GSF) focused on mitigating Haiti’s rampant gang violence, were ambushed by heavily armed criminal factions while traveling back to their base in an armored vehicle in Croix-des-Bouquets, a gang-controlled district outside Port-au-Prince. No armed group has publicly claimed responsibility for the abduction to date. Following the men’s disappearance, Bukele authorized the deployment of roughly 450 elite Salvadoran soldiers to Haiti last Thursday, framing the entire military operation as a single-minded mission to rescue the four hostages alive. Days later, a non-governmental organization delivered four sets of human remains to a Haitian airport, claiming they were the missing Salvadoran air technicians. But a preliminary inspection of the remains immediately exposed critical inconsistencies: one corpse was that of a child, another belonged to an individual far taller than any of the missing technicians, one body wore partial uniform of a foreign national army, and the recovered personal effects included identification cards and uniforms belonging to personnel from other nations, including a Chadian national ID card and a GSF member credential that Bukele shared via public social media posts. The revelation directly contradicts a prior New York Times report, which cited anonymous sources close to the Salvadoran mission claiming the badly burned bodies recovered on Port-au-Prince’s outskirts on Saturday were presumed to be the missing Salvadoran men, and that formal forensic testing would be required for positive identification. The same New York Times source later pushed back on Bukele’s evidence, claiming the Chadian ID card he displayed belonged to a soldier who had lost the document after sustaining an injury. The incident unfolds against the backdrop of Haiti’s years-long spiral of gang-fueled chaos, which has deteriorated sharply since the 2021 assassination of Haitian President Jovenel Moïse left a crippling political vacuum. The UN-backed multinational intervention force deployed to dismantle gang control has faced persistent barriers accessing territories fully dominated by armed factions. UN statistics released in early October show that between January 1 and September 11 of this year, more than 5,700 people have been killed or wounded either by gang violence or during counter-gang operations. The Salvadoran armed forces clarified that the missing four technicians were stationed in Haiti primarily to conduct life-saving medical evacuation missions, not to engage in direct combat, and that initial rescue efforts launched immediately after their abduction – including helicopter deployments – were thwarted by ongoing intense clashes in the ambush zone.

  • Voters in Brazil to choose between Lula and Bolsonaro’s son

    Voters in Brazil to choose between Lula and Bolsonaro’s son

    Millions of Brazilian voters are set to cast their ballots this Sunday in a historic, fiercely contested presidential runoff that will decide the direction of Latin America’s largest economy for decades to come. The two contenders present a stark ideological divide: 80-year-old left-wing incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who is vying for his fourth non-consecutive term in office, and 45-year-old right-wing federal senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of disgraced former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro.
    The elder Bolsonaro is currently serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest on coup-plotting convictions, stemming from his attempt to overturn the 2022 election result that ousted him from power. Flávio Bolsonaro enters the runoff as the clear frontrunner, after securing the largest vote share in the 4 October first round – a result that former U.S. President Donald Trump publicly hailed as a “very big” victory. No Brazilian presidential candidate in modern electoral history has ever managed to erase a first-round deficit to claim a runoff win, a statistical trend that heavily favours the younger Bolsonaro heading into polling day.
    Tens of thousands of Bolsonaro loyalists packed streets across major cities on the eve of the vote, draped in Brazil’s iconic green and yellow national colours, brimming with confidence that their candidate will deliver on core campaign pledges. His policy platform centres on a no-holds-barred crackdown on transnational organised crime and narco-trafficking that has terrorised large swathes of the country, paired with sweeping tax cuts and public spending austerity measures to rein in runaway national expenditure. He held his final pre-election rally in Belo Horizonte, the capital of Minas Gerais – a populous battleground state that every successful Brazilian presidential candidate has carried since the return to civilian rule in the 1980s. In a viral social media address to supporters, he declared, “The time is almost here. There are only a few hours left before we shape the future of our nation for the next 30 or 40 years.” A top campaign promise from the senator is to secure the release of his ailing father from house arrest immediately after taking office. One Rio de Janeiro voter attending a pro-Bolsonaro rally told BBC reporters, “Brazil needs change, and Flávio is the person that represents that today, after so many years of the Left destroying the economy and the country.” Another attendee highlighted his pledges to stamp out widespread gang violence, dismantle terrorist networks, and slash sky-high central bank interest rates as the key reasons for her support.
    On the opposing side, Lula’s Workers’ Party has mounted a relentless nationwide mobilisation campaign in the weeks since the first round, aiming to drive up turnout after more than 33 million eligible voters skipped casting a ballot earlier this month. At a massive rally stretching across Rio de Janeiro’s iconic Copacabana Beach on Saturday, Lula framed the election as an existential fight for Brazilian national sovereignty. “We are choosing between the leader who kisses the Brazilian flag, and the one who kneels to kiss the American flag,” he told a roaring crowd. His campaign has repeatedly alleged unauthorised U.S. interference in the electoral process – a claim that U.S. state department officials have dismissed out of hand as completely baseless. “We’re going to win the election for one simple reason: it’s true that the people want change, but they want to move forward,” Lula told supporters. “They don’t want to go backward.” Many of his backers have adopted a defiant posture, reclaiming the famous yellow and green Brazilian national football jersey that Bolsonaro supporters had co-opted as a symbol of their movement in recent years. One Lula supporter named Roberta told BBC News, “This movement is to show we have strength. We’ve woken up, we’re coming to the street to make a difference and turn the vote around.”
    The Workers’ Party has cast the entire electoral contest as a “battle for the survival of Brazilian democracy”, arguing that Jair Bolsonaro’s proven coup plot is concrete evidence that the broader “Bolsonarismo” movement poses an existential threat to the country’s post-1988 democratic institutions. Ties between Lula’s administration and Donald Trump have remained deeply fraught throughout his latest term, with Lula repeatedly asserting that Brazil “does not fit into anyone’s backyard” – a direct rebuke of Trump’s self-declared “Donroe Doctrine”, a national security framework that asserts unchallenged U.S. dominance over the entire Western Hemisphere. Flávio Bolsonaro, by contrast, argues that deepened security cooperation with Washington will give Brazilian law enforcement the tools to dismantle powerful criminal syndicates that control vast swathes of national territory, and restore full state sovereignty to gang-held regions. He has also relentlessly hammered the Workers’ Party over decades of high-profile corruption scandals that eroded public trust in left-wing governance for millions of voters.
    On election night, Lula will monitor vote tallying from the country’s economic hub of São Paulo, while Flávio Bolsonaro will watch results roll in from the national capital Brasília, where his father remains under house arrest ahead of the final vote count.

  • Why the King’s Caribbean tour could be ‘biggest risk of his reign’

    Why the King’s Caribbean tour could be ‘biggest risk of his reign’

    Royal official visits are notoriously unpredictable undertakings: even with months, and in some cases years, of hyper-detailed pre-planning, unforeseen tensions and public pushback can derail carefully laid agendas at any turn. Set to launch this Tuesday, King Charles III’s upcoming nine-day Caribbean itinerary will take the reigning monarch across three nations — the Bahamas, Guyana, and Antigua and Barbuda — where he is scheduled to attend the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM), alongside a packed slate of bilateral and community-focused engagements. This journey marks the highest-risk diplomatic mission of Charles’s reign to date, as it places him directly at the epicenter of a long-simmering global reckoning over transatlantic slave trade reparations, public demands for a formal British royal apology for the United Kingdom’s colonial-era atrocities, and growing republican momentum across Caribbean Commonwealth realms. As prominent royal historian and author Sir Anthony Seldon emphasized, the trip brings unprecedented uncertainty for the monarchy, noting that widespread public and political scrutiny over slavery’s enduring legacy is putting the institution’s core moral integrity under unprecedented public examination. Per longstanding guidance from the UK’s ruling Burnham administration, which has maintained the same official position as its predecessors that it will not issue formal reparations payments for historical slavery, King Charles will not deliver a formal public apology for Britain’s role in the transatlantic slave trade during his tour. Senior royal aides have clarified that while the King will not shy away from acknowledging the “darkest chapters” of shared Anglo-Caribbean history, formal decisions around state apologies and reparations policy fall exclusively under the purview of elected UK government officials, not the sovereign. Buckingham Palace has confirmed that deliberate, public recognition of historical colonial harms will be woven into every scheduled stop across the three host nations, but royal planners are fully prepared for organized protest, public dissent, and campaign activity focused on reparations, official apologies, and republican transition. Planning teams have explicitly integrated provisions for peaceful demonstrations into security frameworks, framing them as a natural and accepted feature of the region’s vibrant democratic public discourse. Palace teams have also carried out exhaustive pre-trip risk assessments to avoid repeating the public relations missteps that marred the 2022 Caribbean tour of the Prince and Princess of Wales, where viral footage of the royal couple greeting local children through a wire fence drew widespread backlash for appearing tone-deaf, and several events were scrapped entirely due to unplanned public protests. While government leaders in all three host nations have publicly signaled they will celebrate King Charles’s longstanding advocacy for rainforest conservation, cross-cultural exchange, and strengthened bilateral cooperation on trade, renewable energy, and agricultural development, all three heads of state have formally endorsed the global demand for reparatory justice for slavery. In the Bahamas and Antigua and Barbuda, where King Charles remains the official head of state, public and political support for transitioning to a republican system of government has surged in recent years, with Antigua and Barbuda already eliminating a 40-year-old legal requirement for newly elected public officials to swear a formal oath of allegiance to the British monarch. The high-stakes tour also unfolds against a chaotic backdrop of domestic royal distractions in the UK: the past three months, which were intended to be a quiet summer period for the royal household based at the King’s Scottish residence, have been dominated by relentless tabloid coverage of the surprise return of the Duke and Duchess of Sussex to British soil, public disputes stemming from Earl Spencer’s newly released memoir criticizing the King’s handling of Princess Diana’s 1997 death, and explosive recent allegations involving Meghan, Duchess of Sussex’s father Thomas Markle that have dragged the royal family into a global narrative involving international law enforcement and claims of abuse. The 77-year-old King, who continues to receive ongoing regular treatment following his public cancer diagnosis, is operating on an extraordinarily intense schedule of roughly 36 separate engagements across the nine-day trip, though Buckingham Palace has repeatedly confirmed he remains on a “positive trajectory” in his health recovery. Queen Camilla, who will turn 80 next July and has previously spoken publicly about the physical toll of fast-paced royal travel in tropical climates, will only join the King for the final leg of the tour in Antigua and Barbuda, where she will participate in CHOGM events alongside her own dedicated portfolio of engagements focused on youth literacy and global efforts to end gender-based violence. Former UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy, a Labour MP with deep multigenerational family ties to Guyana and Antigua and Barbuda who has joined the King on multiple prior overseas state visits, noted that the sovereign’s presence delivers significant diplomatic validation for small Caribbean nations, while acknowledging that the region’s lively democratic culture will inevitably include pockets of vocal public dissent. Seldon added that if King Charles can navigate the tour’s delicate political and social nuances as deftly as he handled his widely praised earlier diplomatic meeting with former U.S. President Donald Trump — where he deftly asserted British national interests without provoking unnecessary diplomatic friction — the trip could emerge as a landmark success that reinvigorates ties across the Commonwealth and demonstrates the monarchy’s capacity for empathetic, thoughtful engagement with historical injustice.

  • How Brazil’s changing working class is reshaping the presidential race

    How Brazil’s changing working class is reshaping the presidential race

    In the post-industrial São Paulo satellite city of Osasco, long-shuttered manufacturing facilities have made way for sprawling shopping complexes and gig economy tech hubs, earning the municipality the informal nickname of São Paulo’s “Silicon Valley.” Once a reliable stronghold for leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the 2022 national election, Osasco delivered a surprise first-round victory this month for right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro, setting the stage for a high-stakes runoff that breaks a 35-year national precedent: no first-round leader has failed to claim Brazil’s presidency since 1989.
    For long-time Lula ally Gilberto Almazan, head of a local metalworkers’ union that formed the backbone of the president’s historic electoral coalition, the shifting political tides are a source of visible distress. He breaks into tears recounting Lula’s iconic origin story: a child raised in crippling poverty in Brazil’s Northeast who climbed from factory floor worker to union organiser to three-term head of state. Even so, Almazan does not mince words about the obsolescence of the traditional labour movement he leads, describing it as trapped in the “Middle Ages” and ill-equipped to represent the drastically transformed local workforce. “We suffered devastating deindustrialisation here,” he explained. “The old working class is gone. Factories for metal, chemicals and textiles all vanished, and in their place we now have five large malls. The vast majority of local workers are no longer on assembly lines, they’re in service, retail or gig roles.”
    For the swelling ranks of Bolsonaro supporters in Osasco, the single most repeated phrase across conversations is “change.” Many struggle to name specific policy proposals from Flávio Bolsonaro that draw their backing, but say they are exhausted by persistent economic strain, high crime rates and longstanding political corruption — even as the challenger himself faces unproven (and firmly denied) corruption allegations. Gisele Bonfim, a local lawyer who voted for Lula in 2022, is among these defectors. “He gives us hope that Brazil can be something different than what it is right now,” she said of Bolsonaro’s campaign.
    Lula’s path to re-election has been undermined not just by active defections, but by record-high voter abstention not seen since 1998, with 33 million eligible Brazilians skipping the first-round ballot. The seismic shift in the Brazilian working class, embodied by communities like Osasco, is the core driver of this volatility. At a bustling open-air market adjacent to one of Osasco’s new mega-malls, every vendor operates a portable card terminal, selling everything from street food to handmade goods. Tairine, a hot dog vendor who used to skip voting entirely despite Brazil’s mandatory polling rules that impose fines for non-attendance, says she will cast her first-ever ballot for Bolsonaro. She cites cripplingly high taxes on all consumer goods and stubborn inflation that leave low-income families trapped in cycles of deprivation, arguing that “nothing has gotten better for poor people” since Lula returned to office. Flávio Bolsonaro’s platform centres on sharp cuts to federal spending, downsizing government ministries and targeted tax relief, while promising to preserve Lula’s flagship anti-poverty welfare programmes that benefit millions of vulnerable households.
    For generations of long-time Lula loyalists, the president remains a legendary working-class champion who led landmark strikes to expand labour rights and lifted tens of millions out of extreme poverty during his prior terms. But today, a growing share of Brazil’s workforce participates in what Almazan describes as widespread “Uber-isation”: gig drivers, food delivery couriers, informal market vendors and independent service workers who crave flexible scheduling and individual autonomy far more than the collective bargaining and state-led welfare systems Lula built his career on. Richard Lapper, a leading political biographer who has published full studies of both Lula and Flávio’s father, former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro, notes that the collapse of manufacturing and rise of individualised informal work are global trends, but their impact has been uniquely sharp in Brazil because the country industrialised late and underwent premature deindustrialisation. He describes Lula as a “victim of his own success”: while the president has overseen a record-low unemployment rate and successfully removed Brazil from the United Nations global hunger map, widespread public frustration stems from a crisis of unmet expectations, as soaring consumer prices, record household debt and elevated interest rates leave many households feeling economically squeezed even as aggregate national metrics improve.
    Robson, a 53-year-old municipal civil servant in Osasco who was born in Lula’s home state of Pernambuco and grew up a devoted Lula supporter, is one such disaffected voter. He blames the current administration’s overspending and fiscal mismanagement for Brazil’s ballooning public deficit and record-high tax burdens, saying ordinary families now face impossible daily trade-offs: “You have to choose between making your car payment or putting food on the table.”
    In response to the first-round setbacks, Lula’s campaign has launched an aggressive mobilisation drive focused on turning out millions of apathetic non-voters for the runoff, centred on mass street rallies that draw hundreds of thousands of participants, including a São Paulo event the campaign estimates drew a crowd of 1 million. Organisers have intentionally curated viral social media content from these events, including a widely shared clip of a muscular topless Lula supporter waving the president’s flag that racked up tens of millions of views across platforms. The 80-year-old Lula has also leaned heavily into social media to push back against claims he is too old for office, dubbing himself the “king of selfies” and posting fast-paced clips of himself moving energetically between campaign stops. Supporter Leila summed up the campaign’s core messaging: “So many people stayed home because they thought their vote wouldn’t change anything. Our whole fight now is to convince them their voice matters.”
    Even as Lula retains strong support among Brazil’s poorest communities, abstention rates ran well above national averages in Rio de Janeiro’s massive Maré favela, a sprawling territory controlled by rival armed gangs. 18-year-old single mother Vitoria, who earns less than £300 per month, still backs Lula, praising his administration’s minimum wage hikes, mandated paid time off for workers and free access to essential prescription medications. But she is deeply fearful of Flávio Bolsonaro’s pledge to designate the local gang Comando Vermelho as a terrorist organisation, a policy the candidate previously lobbied the U.S. government to adopt. She warns the policy would trigger violent, deadly police raids that would “kill, destroy, ruin families, leave blood and bodies on the ground,” referencing a 2023 Rio security operation that killed more than 130 residents. Local resident Andreza Dionísio attributes the high local abstention rate to both last-minute polling station relocations and a pervasive “sense of hopelessness about the future.”
    That pervasive sense of disillusionment has created a massive opening for Brazil’s fast-growing evangelical Christian community, which now makes up roughly a quarter of the national population. Mega-churches offer far more than spiritual guidance to working-class neighbourhoods, providing free childcare, employment support, and food distribution, and their influential conservative pastors have become some of the country’s most powerful political kingmakers. Silas Malafaia, a high-profile pastor with millions of social media followers who leads the Rio-based Assembleia de Deus Vitória em Cristo church and officiated at Jair Bolsonaro’s wedding, is currently under investigation for alleged obstruction of the 2023 coup trial targeting the former president, allegations he denies as politically motivated. In an interview with the BBC, he argued that the evangelical movement is the only institution keeping vulnerable communities from collapse. “It gives people purpose, it helps them build better lives,” he said, noting that Flávio Bolsonaro’s platform aligns closely with the church’s conservative priorities, including traditional family values, opposition to progressive gender education policies, and strict anti-abortion rules.
    While the church has mobilised a dedicated bloc of voters to support Bolsonaro, most of the shift away from Lula appears to be a rejection of the incumbent rather than an enthusiastic endorsement of his challenger. Back in Osasco, union leader Almazan voices a bittersweet, poignant fear: “There will never be another Lula.” What he intends as a tribute to the president’s historic legacy also doubles as a stark political reality. Lula’s legendary personal story still resonates deeply with older generations of working-class Brazilians, but his hopes for a second full term in office may now hinge entirely on whether he can convince a drastically transformed national electorate that he still has a compelling new story to offer the Brazil of 2024.

  • Argentina drops investigation into President Milei over crypto fraud

    Argentina drops investigation into President Milei over crypto fraud

    A high-profile criminal probe targeting Argentine President Javier Milei and his sister, Karina Milei, over their alleged ties to a controversial cryptocurrency collapse has been formally terminated, per official court filings. Federal judge Marcelo Martinez de Giorgi issued the dismissal order following a formal request from federal prosecutors to drop all charges linked to the $Libra crypto scandal that roiled local markets in February 2025.

    The controversy erupted after Milei published a post on X (formerly Twitter) endorsing the newly launched $Libra token, claiming the asset would channel funding to underresourced small businesses and early-stage startups across Argentina. Moments after the president shared a direct purchase link for the cryptocurrency, its market value surged dramatically, drawing thousands of retail investors. However, Milei deleted the post within hours, triggering a catastrophic price crash that left the vast majority of token holders facing crippling financial losses. The rapid, unannounced collapse prompted widespread public accusations of a “rug pull” — a common crypto scam where project operators lure investors before abandoning the asset and siphoning off raised funds — while opposition legislators in Argentina’s Congress immediately drafted formal impeachment proceedings against Milei.

    From the earliest stages of the investigation, Milei repeatedly rejected all fraud allegations, emphasizing he had acted entirely in good faith throughout the incident. In multiple local media appearances, including an interview with major outlet Todo Noticias, the president clarified, “I didn’t promote it, I merely shared it,” adding that he had deleted the post as soon as he uncovered undisclosed operational details of the $Libra project that led him to distance himself from the asset. He further noted that all investors had participated voluntarily with full awareness of the inherent risks of unregulated digital assets. The presidential administration also previously confirmed that the national Anti-Corruption Office would conduct a separate administrative review to assess whether any improper official conduct had occurred, and stressed that neither Milei nor his inner circle had any involvement in developing or launching the $Libra token.

    In his formal ruling dismissing the entire case, Judge Martinez de Giorgi stated that the sequence of events described in the original fraud complaint did not meet the statutory definition of a criminal offense under Argentine law, and that no admissible evidence had been presented to prove the existence of criminally relevant deception targeting investors. As of press time, President Milei has not issued a public statement responding to the news that all criminal charges against him and his sister have been dropped.

  • Lula says rival should be disqualified over alleged Meta interference ahead of Brazil vote

    Lula says rival should be disqualified over alleged Meta interference ahead of Brazil vote

    Brazil’s high-stakes presidential run-off is set to take place this Sunday, but the lead-up to the vote has been engulfed in escalating controversy over alleged unequal treatment on Meta’s social media platforms, with both leading candidates filing last-minute petitions calling for each other’s disqualification from the ballot.

    Left-wing incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who is seeking a fourth presidential term, was the first to submit a formal request to Brazil’s top judicial body for elections, the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), on Wednesday. In the filing, Lula’s campaign argues that Meta — the U.S. tech giant that owns widely used Brazilian platforms WhatsApp, Instagram, and Facebook — has intentionally restricted Lula-aligned content to amplify the campaign of his right-wing challenger, Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro. The petition calls for an investigation into claims of abuse of economic power and improper social media manipulation, and asks the court to bar Bolsonaro from holding office for eight years after the 2026 election if the allegations are proven.

    Flávio Bolsonaro quickly pushed back with a counter-petition of his own, also filed Wednesday with the TSE. He accuses Lula’s campaign of abusing political and economic power, claiming the incumbent administration has leveraged personal voter data pulled from official government databases to send mass promotional WhatsApp messages touting Lula’s social programs to millions of Brazilian voters.

    The dispute over Meta’s role in the election emerged earlier this month, when pro-Lula demonstrators gathered outside the company’s São Paulo headquarters on Monday to protest what they called illegal interference in Brazil’s democratic process. Users across the country have also reported anomalous behavior on Meta platforms, including the company’s AI image generation tools failing to produce output related to Lula, and disproportionate reach for Bolsonaro-aligned content.

    These on-the-ground claims were bolstered this week by a statement from United Nations experts, who released a public assessment Wednesday raising formal concerns about unequal access to voters across Meta’s platforms ahead of the run-off. The report, led by the UN Special Rapporteur on freedom of expression, called on Meta to guarantee a fair level playing field for all candidates during the final voting period. It documented multiple reported irregularities, including temporary suspensions of one candidate’s campaign account, inconsistent performance in user feeds, view counts and overall audience reach, and unnecessary content restrictions on one campaign’s Instagram posts. The report added that even information from Meta employees has pointed to disproportionate content limitations for accounts linked to one of the two presidential tickets.

    Meta has repeatedly pushed back against all claims of bias. The company has issued multiple public denials that it has taken any action to favor either candidate in the election, and has stated it will fully comply with any court order requiring equal treatment for both Lula and Bolsonaro’s campaigns.

    The run-off comes after an unexpectedly tight first round of voting held on October 4. Flávio Bolsonaro secured a narrow lead over Lula in the first round, but neither candidate crossed the 50% threshold of valid votes required to win the presidency outright, forcing the head-to-head second round this Sunday. With 159 million registered Brazilian voters eligible to cast ballots, pre-election opinion polls show the two candidates are virtually neck-and-neck, making the outcome of Sunday’s vote too close to call.

  • El Salvador’s president threatens Haitian gangs over military hostages

    El Salvador’s president threatens Haitian gangs over military hostages

    A high-stakes rescue operation is underway in Haiti after four Salvadoran air force service members deployed to a UN-backed security mission were ambushed and kidnapped by heavily armed criminal gangs, triggering a stern warning from El Salvador’s president Nayib Bukele.

    The four missing personnel, who are non-combat pilots and technical specialists, disappeared Sunday following the attack in Croix-des-Bouquets, a suburb of Port-au-Prince that is fully controlled by armed gang factions. According to official statements from El Salvador’s armed forces, the group was ambushed while traveling back to their base camp in an armored vehicle after purchasing food from a local market. The vehicle was struck by explosive devices during the attack and caught fire. Bukele described the abduction as a cowardly attack on personnel who were in Haiti to carry out medical evacuations and save lives, not to engage in combat.

    The Salvadoran troops are part of the newly authorized UN-backed Gang Suppression Force (GSF), which received United Nations Security Council approval earlier this month to address the catastrophic surge in gang violence that has plunged Haiti into a state of ongoing collapse. On Wednesday, Bukele confirmed via a post on X that a dedicated military rescue operation had officially launched to bring the four hostages home alive. He warned that the Sunday ambush paled in comparison to the consequences El Salvador would deliver if the captives were not returned unharmed, adding that the full operation would stand down and return to normal operations immediately if all four personnel were released safely without injury.

    Local security conditions have complicated rescue efforts: armed clashes between gangs and security forces have blocked multiple attempted approaches by both land and air, despite Salvadoran helicopters being deployed to support the search. Before Bukele’s official announcement of the full-scale rescue mission, GSF commanders confirmed that search operations were already underway, with GSF units engaging gang factions with helicopter support. Early operational reports indicate that multiple gang members have been killed in the early stages of the search and clearance operation. To date, no armed group has claimed responsibility for the abduction.

    The kidnapping comes amid a rapidly deteriorating security and political crisis across Haiti. Haiti has been stuck in a state of political vacuum since the 2021 assassination of former president Jovenel Moïse, with widespread economic collapse and non-stop gang warfare pushing the country to the brink of failure. No national elections have been held since 2016, and just two weeks ago, the transitional government indefinitely postponed the presidential and legislative elections that had been scheduled for December 13. According to latest UN data, more than 5,500 people have been killed in gang-related violence across Haiti in 2024 alone, and armed gangs currently control an estimated 85% of Port-au-Prince, the national capital. Earlier this week, UN officials warned that Haitian gangs have been rapidly adapting to increased security pressure, stepping up brutal reprisal attacks against civilians and expanding their territorial control into rural areas beyond the capital.