标签： Oceania

Three months into the ongoing Middle East conflict sparked by cross-border strikes in late February, the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) confirmed Friday that dire earlier predictions of a soaring global hunger crisis are no longer a hypothetical threat — they are becoming reality.

When the conflict first erupted and roiled global energy markets, WFP analysts issued a stark warning in March: if oil prices held steady near $100 per barrel through the end of June, an additional 45 million people across the world would fall into acute food insecurity. That would add to the nearly 320 million people already facing urgent hunger at the start of 2026.

Weeks of fraught negotiations, marked by hostile rhetoric and repeated outbreaks of violence, have failed to secure a ceasefire deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical chokepoint for global oil supplies. Jean-Martin Bauer, director of WFP’s food and nutrition analysis service, told reporters that the worst-case scenario the agency warned of is now materializing. “The closure of Hormuz is translating into increased hunger,” he explained, noting that prices for staple foods including wheat and rice have skyrocketed as costs are passed down global supply chains. “Unfortunately, the pessimistic projections that were made earlier this year are coming to pass, and we need to act.”

The crisis has sent shockwaves far beyond the Middle East, generating cascading cross-border spillovers that hit vulnerable nations the hardest through fuel price hikes, food inflation, lost income, and disrupted trade routes. When these new pressures combine with pre-existing structural vulnerabilities in low-income nations, they rapidly erode food security and livelihoods, WFP’s analysis found.

Take Somalia as a pressing example: the East African nation already has 6 million people facing acute hunger. By the end of 2026, WFP projects an additional 2.5 million Somalis will be unable to cover their basic food needs, pushing the share of households unable to afford essential goods to nearly 60%, up from 47% in 2025.

Bauer warned the world is now facing a return to the crippling global cost-of-living crisis that followed Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. But unlike 2022, when the global humanitarian community was able to mobilize rapid, well-funded support, the system is now stretched thin by deep cuts to international aid funding, particularly following U.S. policy shifts after Donald Trump’s return to the White House. “In 2022, humanitarian programmes were better funded. Humanitarians were in places where they are no longer,” Bauer said.

Compounding this strain, logistical disruptions and broad inflation tied to the Middle East conflict have pushed up the cost of delivering aid worldwide. WFP’s analysis warns the humanitarian system is facing an unprecedented double squeeze: rapidly growing demand for assistance paired with soaring delivery costs, which has created major gaps in coverage. The agency now expects to serve 1.5 million fewer people in 2026 than its original planning target. If the conflict drags on for six months, more than 9 million vulnerable people could lose critical food assistance entirely.

In Somalia alone, the WFP risks completely running out of food to distribute within months, Bauer revealed. The agency is bracing for a “pipeline break” as soon as next month, when no food will be available to distribute to vulnerable communities. The hardest hit will be young children under five, a group already at extreme risk of malnutrition, and one Somali district already faces an active threat of famine. “This is a very serious situation that requires immediate attention,” Bauer said.

With no clear path to a ceasefire in the Middle East, the global food security outlook is likely to worsen further before it improves. The conflict is far from the only threat facing global food systems, Bauer added: a high-likelihood strong El Niño event is on track to supercharge climate instability in the coming months, which could further disrupt crop production and food markets, adding more pressure on vulnerable populations through 2027.

Escalating tensions across the Israel-Lebanon border boiled over on Friday, as the Israeli Air Force carried out an airstrike on a southern Lebanese village just hours after the military ordered mass evacuations of multiple population centers. The strike comes after Iran-aligned militant group Hezbollah rejected a conditional ceasefire agreement hammered out by Lebanese and Israeli negotiators in Washington this week, derailing a rare diplomatic push to de-escalate a conflict that has already claimed thousands of lives.

The cross-border violence erupted on March 2, when Hezbollah launched coordinated attacks on Israeli targets to avenge the killing of Iran’s supreme leader on February 28, dragging Lebanon into the broader regional war that Israel and its key ally the United States launched against Iran. Since that opening strike, Israel has pushed into southern Lebanon with its deepest ground incursion in 20 years, steadily expanding its military operations across the border region.

In the lead-up to Friday’s strike, Israeli military spokesman Avichay Adraee, who handles communications in Arabic, issued multiple urgent evacuation orders. First, he called on residents of three villages north of the Litani River to leave their properties immediately, before expanding the warning to six additional towns and villages, including the coastal town of Sarafand located between Tyre and Sidon. Posting on social platform X, Adraee emphasized the risk to civilian life, writing: “For your safety, you must evacuate your homes immediately and move away from the villages and towns by at least 1,000 metres into open areas. Anyone who is near Hezbollah operatives, their facilities, or their weapons endangers their life!”

Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency confirmed that thousands of civilians fled the three villages named in the initial warning, and later verified that an airstrike had hit the village of Arqoun. Overnight strikes across southern Lebanon’s coastal city of Tyre left seven people dead, a Lebanese civil defence source confirmed to Agence France-Presse. One of those strikes hit near Jabal Amel hospital in central Tyre, killing four people, wounding seven, and causing minor damage to the medical facility. A second strike on a nearby residential neighborhood killed three more people, including two children, and wounded five others. An AFP correspondent reporting from the scene found a local bank, one of only three operating in the city, left heavily damaged by the blast.

Hezbollah’s leader Naim Qassem explicitly rejected the Washington-brokered truce during a public address on Thursday, rejecting the conditional deal that required the group to halt all cross-border attacks on Israel. “The ceasefire must be comprehensive… without the Israeli enemy having the freedom to kill,” Qassem said, adding that he urged the Lebanese government to end “the farce and humiliation called direct talks” with Israel. The group has maintained its demand for a full, permanent ceasefire and a complete withdrawal of all Israeli military forces from southern Lebanon.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz responded by confirming that military operations would continue uninterrupted. “At this stage, [the army] will continue its fire and ground operations… without the return of the population, while continuing to dismantle terrorist infrastructure,” Katz said, adding that Israeli forces retain full authority to strike targets as far north as the Lebanese capital Beirut if Hezbollah continues attacks on Israeli civilian communities.

The escalating airstrikes and evacuation orders have sparked a humanitarian crisis across southern Lebanon. After Israel ordered most of Tyre’s population to evacuate, hundreds of displaced residents fled to the city’s small, historic old town, which had not yet faced evacuation warnings or strikes and is home to Lebanon’s Christian community in the area. With all official shelters already filled to capacity, many displaced people have been forced to sleep in their cars or improvised tents. Earlier this week, the Israeli military claimed Hezbollah operatives were operating in the old town, threatening to order a full evacuation if the militants remain, pushing hundreds more residents to flee the area.

Hezbollah has held a unique position in Lebanese politics since the end of the 1975-1990 civil war, as the only militant faction that refused to disarm, arguing that its arsenal was necessary to oppose Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon. After Israeli troops fully withdrew from the region in 2000, international and domestic pressure for Hezbollah to disarm grew steadily, with current Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s administration taking the hardest line to date on the issue. The Lebanese government has formally declared Hezbollah’s independent military activities illegal, and the Lebanese Army had been working to disarm the group in areas south of the Litani River near the Israeli border prior to the outbreak of the current conflict.

Since Hezbollah recommenced hostilities in March, joining the regional war against Israel alongside Iran, cross-border exchanges of fire have killed more than 3,500 people in Lebanon alone, according to official data from the Lebanese Ministry of Health. For civilians on both sides of the border, the collapse of the latest truce effort has erased any remaining hope of a quick end to the violence. “We can’t keep doing this,” a 60-year-old resident of Shlomi, a small town in northern Israel, told AFP. “This is not a life.”

Against the backdrop of the tightly controlled desert nation of Turkmenistan, one of the world’s most closed countries, the annual Akhal-Teke horse beauty pageant unfolds as a uniquely vivid display of national and political culture. On the arena floor of the capital Ashgabat’s modern equestrian complex, trainers in ornate traditional uniforms trimmed with white fur headgear lead stallions draped in gold ornamentation around the stage, watched by thousands of attendees and presided over by current President Serdar Berdymukhamedov, the son of former leader and self-styled ‘Father of the Nation’ Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov.

AFP journalists were granted rare access to the 2024 pageant, a privilege rarely extended to foreign media in the authoritarian Central Asian state. As crowds of men in identical tracksuits waved national flags and clapped in synchronized rhythm, sand-colored stallion Hankerven – adorned with gemstone jewelry and a hand-woven traditional Turkmen carpet – took home the competition’s top honor. For local breeders and citizens, the pageant is far more than a livestock event: it is a celebration of the breed that sits at the core of modern Turkmen national identity.

“There are no beauty contests for women in Turkmenistan but there are for horses,” explained 70-year-old veteran breeder Ashir during an interview at his stud farm just outside Ashgabat. “We Turkmen are known for our carpets and horses. That is why our flag features carpet motifs and our coat of arms depicts the Akhal-Teke.”

The fervent state-sponsored focus on Akhal-Tekes, an ancient breed on the global endangered list, is largely rooted in the lifelong passion of former president Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, who has built the cult of the horse alongside pervasive personality cults for himself and his son, who inherited the presidency in 2022. Political criticism of the ruling father-son dynasty is banned in Turkmenistan, an energy-rich former Soviet republic that human rights monitors rank among the most isolated nations on Earth, alongside North Korea and Afghanistan.

Gurbanguly, an avid equestrian, has written multiple books celebrating the Akhal-Teke breed and even recorded a viral rap song dedicated to his favorite foal, Rovach. In the lyrics, he gushes: “You are like the wind at daybreak, you are like a cherished vision. You are an inspiration… more precious than gold.” Another of his personal horses holds a Guinness World Record for the fastest 10-meter dash on hind legs, completed in just 4.19 seconds.

State-run media regularly frames Akhal-Teke conservation and breeding as a “strategic national priority” and the “unshakeable foundation of Turkmen national identity.” The country’s official 2026 motto has already been set as “Independent neutral Turkmenistan is the homeland of purposeful winged horses,” and the breed is widely known by the reverent nickname “heavenly horses,” a title drawn from an ancient myth of an Akhal-Teke outracing a falcon in a legendary contest.

With only an estimated 4,000 to 7,000 Akhal-Tekes alive worldwide, the vast majority reside in state-run Turkmen stud farms. A senior official from the State Organisation for Turkmen Horses confirmed to AFP that the breed remains “on the brink of extinction,” but credited the ruling leadership’s intense personal interest with securing its future. A major milestone for the breed came when UNESCO added the “art of Akhal-Teke horse breeding and traditions of horses’ decoration” to its Intangible Cultural Heritage List, a win that state officials call a “major achievement of national cultural policy.”

Widely celebrated for their athleticism adapted to Turkmenistan’s harsh desert climate, Akhal-Tekes excel in endurance riding, dressage, and show jumping. Retired 66-year-old veterinarian Sapargeldy, who spoke to AFP on condition of not sharing his surname, described the breed’s distinctive physical traits: “large size, long legs, well-developed musculature, slender and elegant head set on a long, straight neck, expressive eyes, high withers and sturdy hooves.” The breed’s most famous feature, he added, is its unique metallic sheen in sunlight, caused by fine, hollow-core hairs that reflect light differently than other equine breeds.

The Turkmen government traces its celebration of the Akhal-Teke back to pre-colonial nomadic traditions, when tribes roamed the Central Asian desert before the Russian Empire conquered the region in the 19th century. But in modern Turkmenistan, the horse cult is deeply intertwined with the ruling regime’s politics: monuments to Akhal-Tekes dot every major city, and in 2023 Gurbanguly unveiled a 43-meter-tall golden statue depicting himself riding an Akhal-Teke in a pose modeled after Napoleon Bonaparte.

The breed also plays a central role in Turkmenistan’s limited diplomatic engagement with the world. When rare high-level foreign dignitaries visit the isolated country, they are often gifted a purebred Akhal-Teke as a gesture of goodwill. Past recipients include former French President Francois Mitterrand, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

In a historic Australian court hearing that marks the country’s first prosecution for slavery offences including crimes against humanity linked to the Islamic State (ISIS), a Melbourne mechanic has publicly condemned the terror group in unflinching terms as he pushes to secure bail for his accused niece, offering up a $75,000 financial guarantee and a permanent home in his household.

Self-employed tradesman Abraham Abbas took the witness stand on the second day of 31-year-old Zeinab Ahmad’s bail application at the Melbourne Magistrates Court on Friday. When asked directly about his stance on the terrorist organization, Abbas did not moderate his views. “I hate those bastards. Sorry Your Honour, I do,” he told the court. “Sorry for the language — they’re evil and they don’t represent anything we believe in Islam at all.” He confirmed he stood ready to house Ahmad and meet all bail conditions if the court granted her release.

Ahmad and her 54-year-old mother Kawsar Ahmad made international headlines when they touched down at Melbourne Airport on May 7 after more than 12 years living abroad. Both were immediately taken into custody on slavery and crimes against humanity charges — the first time such charges have been laid against suspects in Australia. Court documents outline that the pair had been held at the Al Roj displacement camp in northern Syria, alongside several minor family members, after surrendering to Kurdish forces following the collapse of ISIS’s final territorial stronghold of Baghouz in March 2019.

Prosecutors laid out the core allegations against the family during the opening days of the bail hearing, which began Thursday. They claim that Zeinab’s father Mohammed Ahmad, who remains detained in Iraq and has not yet been charged, purchased a 15-year-old Yazidi teenager as a slave for $10,000 in approximately June 2017. The victim was captured by ISIS as part of the terror group’s systematic ethnic and religious cleansing of the Yazidi community in northern Iraq, and was passed between 17 different ISIS fighters before being freed in 2019. In testimony before the court, Australian Federal Police (AFP) Senior Constable Marc Clendenning shared the victim’s account, which details repeated beatings, sexual assault, and forced unpaid labor at the hands of Mohammed Ahmad before she was resold to another ISIS fighter in late 2018.

While Zeinab Ahmad is not accused of directly assaulting the victim, prosecutors allege she participated in the enslavement by mistreating the teenager, ordering her to complete household labor, and failing to intervene during sexual assaults. Clendenning added that social media posts and private communications from Ahmad to relatives in Australia demonstrate what police describe as “open support for Islamic State activities, objectives, and ideological principles.”

Law enforcement has formally opposed bail, arguing that Ahmad poses an unacceptable risk to the Australian public, in large part because she has never publicly renounced her connection to the terror group. “The accused has never explicitly renounced or stated that she no longer supports the Islamic State since her surrender to Kurdish forces,” Clendenning told the court.

Court records confirm that Zeinab Ahmad first traveled to Turkey separately from her family, before relocating to Syria to join ISIS alongside her parents, husband, and other relatives in January 2015. Multiple family members, including her husband Dawod Elmir and two brothers, were killed by coalition forces between 2016 and 2017, according to testimony.

Defense lawyer Grace Morgan centered her cross-examination of Clendenning on the extreme constraints that women faced under ISIS rule, noting that Zeinab Ahmad was forced to marry three different ISIS fighters over a three-year period, a claim the officer confirmed. Morgan also pushed for details about the availability of state-backed reintegration programs and electronic monitoring that would allow for strict supervision of Ahmad if she is granted bail.

The bail application was adjourned until June 15 to allow the defense to question AFP Detective Sergeant Greg Adams, who recorded a statement from the enslaved victim in Iraq back in September 2019. The court also confirmed that domestic intelligence agency ASIO had alerted the AFP that Ahmad may hold information about another Australian family currently connected to conflict zones in the Middle East. Kawsar Ahmad, Zeinab’s mother and co-accused, is expected to file her own bail application later this June.