标签： North America

A substantial supply surplus is poised to dominate global oil markets throughout 2026, effectively imposing a ceiling on prices despite ongoing geopolitical instability, according to a definitive assessment by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The agency projects that worldwide oil supply will expand by approximately 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, reaching a staggering 108.7 million bpd. This follows an even larger increase of around 3 million bpd recorded in 2025.

This robust production growth, originating predominantly from non-OPEC+ nations including the United States, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina, is dramatically outpacing the modest rise in global consumption. The IEA forecasts demand growth of merely 930,000 bpd for 2026, driven almost entirely by emerging economies outside the OECD. This supply-demand imbalance, nearly a threefold difference, has created a significant market buffer that is expected to confine benchmark crude prices within a volatile $60 to $70 per barrel range, suppressing any sustained price rallies.

The physical evidence of this glut is unmistakable. Global observed inventories swelled by approximately 470 million barrels throughout 2025, equating to a build of nearly 1.3 million bpd. A sharp acceleration occurred in November alone, with stocks jumping over 75 million barrels, primarily in onshore crude storage. Preliminary data indicates this trend continued into December. Consequently, OECD industry stockpiles have climbed to 2.84 billion barrels, aligning with the five-year average but standing markedly higher than levels seen a year prior.

Refining activity surged late in the previous year, with global crude throughputs rising by about 2 million bpd in December to 85.7 million bpd ahead of planned seasonal maintenance. For 2026, refinery runs are forecast to average 84.6 million bpd. However, refining margins weakened considerably toward the end of 2025, especially in Europe, where middle distillate cracks halved from their November peaks—a symptom of softening industrial demand and burgeoning product inventories.

Despite repeated geopolitical shocks, prices have consistently failed to maintain upward momentum. North Sea Dated crude averaged just $62.64 a barrel in December, marking a sixth consecutive monthly decline and reaching lows unseen since early 2021. Benchmark prices remain roughly $16 a barrel below the previous year’s levels. A brief January price spike of $6, triggered by renewed tensions involving Iran and Venezuela, quickly subsided as market attention returned to overwhelming fundamentals.

Leading financial institutions echo this cautious outlook. Goldman Sachs analysts noted that geopolitical risk premiums are being overwhelmingly “absorbed by the weight of surplus supply,” projecting Brent to trade within the $60-$70 band. JPMorgan issued a more bearish warning, suggesting prices could test the low-$60s or even high-$50s if demand weakens further or if OPEC+ accelerates its production increases, citing a market that is “structurally long barrels.” Morgan Stanley tempered extreme downside fears, noting that OPEC+ retains sufficient spare capacity and policy flexibility to intervene should prices fall too sharply.

Notably, actual supply disruptions have failed to materially tighten market balances. While Iranian exports fell by 350,000 bpd from October highs and Venezuelan shipments dropped under tightened U.S. sanctions, these losses were offset by a strong rebound in Russian output, which rose by 550,000 bpd month-on-month in December to a multi-year high. Temporary disruptions in Kazakhstan also had a muted impact amid the pervasive supply abundance.

While OPEC maintains a more optimistic demand outlook citing steady economic growth, it acknowledges headwinds from trade tensions and slowing industrial activity. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has similarly highlighted relentless growth in U.S. shale output and rising exports from the Americas as key factors ensuring well-supplied markets. Analysts conclude that with storage tanks brimming and supply growth set to vastly exceed demand, abundance—not scarcity—is the defining characteristic shaping the direction of global crude markets for the foreseeable future.

In a landmark move for Africa-UAE economic relations, Tanzania’s CRDB Bank has inaugurated its Dubai Representative Office at the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), marking the first Tanzanian financial institution to establish a presence within this globally influential financial hub. This strategic expansion positions Tanzania and the broader East and Central Africa region directly within the global capital ecosystem, utilizing an African-born financial institution as the crucial conduit between regional opportunities and international finance.

The official launch ceremony gathered senior leaders from international financial institutions, global investors, multinational corporations, and development finance partners, signaling increasing global interest in Africa as the world’s next major growth frontier. Ambassador Mahmoud Thabit Kombo, Minister for Foreign Affairs and East African Cooperation, delivered a keynote address on behalf of Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan, commending CRDB Bank for advancing Tanzania’s national economic vision through a domestically-grown institution operating at global standards.

Minister Kombo emphasized the strategic selection of Dubai, citing its status as a premier global capital hub and the robust regulatory framework of DIFC. “The presence of a Tanzanian bank in Dubai will significantly deepen economic, trade, and investment relations between Tanzania and the United Arab Emirates,” he stated, referencing existing bilateral trade that has already reached approximately $2.5 billion annually.

Tanzania’s economic stability provides a strong foundation for this expansion. With over 60 million people, the country has maintained average GDP growth of 6-7% for more than two decades, preserved single-digit inflation, and demonstrated macroeconomic resilience even during global disruptions. This stability has transformed Tanzania into a natural gateway economy, connecting the Indian Ocean to landlocked markets across East and Central Africa.

CRDB Bank, founded three decades ago, has evolved alongside Tanzania’s economy and regional integration agenda. The Group now serves over six million customers across the region with a balance sheet exceeding $9 billion, maintaining footprints in Tanzania, Burundi, and the Democratic Republic of Congo that mirror the region’s most vital trade, logistics, and investment corridors.

Abdulmajid Nsekela, Group CEO of CRDB Bank, characterized the Dubai expansion as the logical progression in a regional strategy rooted in Tanzania’s economic geography and Africa’s integration agenda. “CRDB Bank was built to finance Tanzania’s growth. As Tanzania became a gateway, the Bank became regional,” he explained. “Dubai now enables us to complete the triangle—connecting global capital, Tanzania, and East and Central Africa through one trusted African institution.

The targeted region represents a nearly 400 million-person market characterized by rising intra-African trade, expanding infrastructure networks, vast mineral and energy resources, and one of the world’s youngest labor forces. Africa collectively hosts 1.4 billion people, generates over $3.4 trillion in GDP, and is projected to account for a quarter of the global population by 2050.

Despite this enormous potential, access to long-term, structured capital remains a persistent challenge. The CRDB Bank Dubai Representative Office specifically addresses this gap by originating deals, structuring financing, and mobilizing global capital for African projects requiring both local understanding and international standards. “Africa does not lack opportunity,” Mr. Nsekela noted. “What it often lacks is a bridge between capital and execution. This office is that bridge.”

Through its DIFC presence, CRDB Bank is expected to enhance trade finance, cross-border investment structuring, and syndicated financing between the Gulf and Africa, utilizing Tanzania as the anchor and East and Central Africa as the growth hinterland. The office additionally strengthens Africa’s engagement with Islamic finance, a global market exceeding $4 trillion in assets.

Neema Mori, Chairperson of the CRDB Bank Board of Directors, stated that this milestone reflects growing confidence in African institutions operating at the highest global level. “This is a statement about governance, capability, and trust,” she affirmed. “CRDB Bank’s presence in Dubai demonstrates that African banks can anchor global partnerships while remaining firmly aligned with Africa’s development priorities.”

Leadership from the Dubai Financial Services Authority welcomed CRDB Bank into the DIFC ecosystem, recognizing that an African bank with profound regional roots strengthens the Africa-Middle East financial corridor and enhances the flow of long-term capital into emerging markets.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has issued a stark warning against former President Donald Trump’s proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10%, characterizing the measure as potentially catastrophic for the U.S. economy. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Dimon asserted that such a cap would drastically reduce credit access for approximately 80% of Americans and negatively impact multiple sectors including restaurants, retailers, travel companies, and educational institutions.

The controversial proposal, which Trump initially floated during his 2024 presidential campaign and recently reaffirmed via Truth Social on January 13, calls for a one-year interest rate limitation effective from January 20, 2026. The former president framed the measure as protection for consumers against what he described as predatory practices by credit card companies. However, the mechanism for implementation and its legal enforceability remain unspecified.

Dimon challenged the proposal’s feasibility, suggesting that if proponents like Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren support the concept, it should first be tested in their home states of Vermont and Massachusetts. The banking executive emphasized that the most severe consequences would not be borne by financial institutions but rather by small businesses and municipalities as consumers struggle to meet payment obligations.

The financial industry has united in opposition to the concept, with banking associations warning that rate caps would ultimately restrict credit access and prove devastating to families and small businesses. Market reactions were immediately observable following Trump’s social media announcement, with shares of major credit card companies including American Express, Visa, Mastercard, and Barclays experiencing declines.

Currently, the average credit card interest rate in the United States stands at approximately 20%, significantly higher than the proposed cap. While positioned as consumer protection, economists and financial experts caution that artificial rate limitations could constrict credit availability particularly for higher-risk borrowers, potentially exacerbating rather than alleviating financial pressures on American consumers.