标签: Europe

欧洲

  • Think it’s hot now? The next five years will smash records, UN says

    Think it’s hot now? The next five years will smash records, UN says

    New climate projections from the United Nations paint a stark near-term outlook for the global climate, finding that over the next five years, the planet is extremely likely to repeatedly cross the internationally agreed safe warming threshold and break the current record for the world’s hottest year.

    Released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in collaboration with the United Kingdom’s Meteorological Office, the analysis projects a 75% probability that the average global temperature between 2026 and 2030 will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. That temperature limit was formally established as a long-term global target in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, designed to avoid the worst impacts of human-caused climate change. Prior scientific research has confirmed that even a small overshoot of this threshold would sharply increase risks of mortality, extreme hazard, and mass biodiversity loss, with sensitive ecosystems such as tropical coral reefs and mountain glaciers unable to adapt to even minor additional warming.

    The report’s statistics are even more sobering for individual years: there is a 91% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2030 will cross the 1.5°C threshold, and an 86% chance that one of those years will break the current hottest-year record set in 2024. WMO projects annual global temperatures for the 2025–2030 period will land between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above late 19th-century baselines.

    Contrary to common popular framing of the 1.5°C target as a hard “point of no return,” report co-author Melissa Seabrook, a climate scientist at the UK Met Office, emphasized that warming risk increases incrementally. “It’s important to note that 1.5 is not kind of a cliff edge that we’re going to fall off,” Seabrook said. “Every 0.1 of a degree brings more and more severe impacts.” She pointed to the unprecedented extreme heat that swept Europe in May 2025 as an immediate example of the hazards already unfolding.

    Outside experts echoed that warning. Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London who was not involved in the report, noted that a full year or longer of temperatures above 1.5°C would unlock extreme weather events more intense than any modern societies have planned for. “This means a whole range of extreme weather events, probably many so hot/wet/dry that it exceeds anything we’ve experienced in the past and thus crucially, anything our city planning, agriculture etc. has anticipated,” Otto explained via email. “This will mean many people will lose their lives, we are in for a lot of food price shocks, and more intense wildfires.”

    A major contributing factor to the projected near-term warming surge is the expected return of a strong El Niño event, the natural climate pattern that warms surface waters in the central Pacific, boosts global average temperatures, and alters weather systems worldwide. The WMO projects this upcoming El Niño could persist as late as 2028, and Seabrook noted that 2027 is the most likely year to break the 2024 heat record as a result.

    If the 2026–2030 five-year average does exceed 1.5°C, that would mark a dramatic acceleration in the rate of global warming: the planet would warm 0.25°C per decade, up from the previous long-term average of roughly 0.2°C per decade. Seabrook noted that climate scientists are already divided over whether warming is accelerating, and the projection would add key evidence to the argument that the rate of climate change is speeding up. “That obviously is quite scary,” she added.

    The report’s projections highlight two particularly high-risk regions that will face disproportionate warming impacts. First, the Arctic is projected to warm 3.5 times faster than the global average over the next five years, creating a dangerous feedback loop. As rising temperatures melt sea ice, the dark open ocean that replaces bright reflective ice and snow absorbs more solar radiation, driving further warming. The report finds that average winter temperatures in the Arctic between 2026 and 2030 will be 2.8°C (5.1°F) warmer than the 1991–2020 baseline, following a 1.2°C (2.1°F) average winter warming between 2020 and 2025. Summer Arctic sea ice extent is also projected to continue shrinking.

    Second, the Amazon basin — the planet’s largest terrestrial carbon sink, a critical natural buffer against human-caused warming — is forecast to face prolonged unusually warm and dry conditions over the next five years. Those conditions would sharply increase wildfire risk, raising the alarming possibility that the Amazon could shift from absorbing heat-trapping carbon dioxide to releasing it, worsening global warming. The drought and wildfire risk also threatens the water security and livelihoods of millions of people who depend on the rainforest. By contrast, the already parched Sahel region of Africa is projected to receive above-average rainfall, increasing the risk of catastrophic flooding.

    UN climate leadership emphasized that the stark projections show current global efforts to cut fossil fuel emissions are insufficient to slow warming. “Despite the progress of recent years, it’s clear that global heating is still outpacing global efforts to contain it, and the baking temperatures in Europe, India and elsewhere show yet again the brutal human and economic impacts of humanity still burning colossal amounts of coal, oil and gas,” said UN climate chief Simon Stiell. “Whether it’s extreme heat, mega-storms, floods, massive wildfires or droughts hitting food supply and prices, every nation is already paying a huge price from this global climate crisis.”

    The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations, with AP retaining full editorial control over all content.

  • Legal bid to block UK-backed French migrant detention centre

    Legal bid to block UK-backed French migrant detention centre

    A looming legal appeal against a UK-supported migrant detention centre near Dunkirk has emerged as a major threat to a landmark £660 million bilateral agreement aimed at curbing illegal small boat crossings across the English Channel. The ongoing legal challenge, brought by a French environmental advocacy group, casts uncertainty over the timeline of the facility’s opening — a key prerequisite for the UK to release its pledged funding for the project.

    The 140-bed detention centre in Loon-Plage, currently under construction and targeted for operational launch by the end of 2026, was first greenlit by French interior authorities in July 2025. Within months, local environmental group Association pour la Défense de l’Environnement du Littoral Flandre-Artois (ADELFA) contested the construction permit, arguing the facility breached multiple local and national regulations. After an initial challenge was dismissed, the group escalated the case to the Administrative Court of Lille in February 2026, opening the current appeal process.

    ADELFA’s legal arguments center on four core claims: first, the site falls within an industrial zoning district where permanent residential accommodation is prohibited under local planning rules, and the detention centre qualifies as residential use; second, the facility sits in close proximity to industrial sites including an ammonia-cooled warehouse, creating unacceptable public health hazards for detainees; third, the interior ministry failed to comply with mandatory fire safety consultation requirements; and fourth, the ministry neglected to post the approved building permit in a publicly visible location as required by French law.

    While the appeal is not automatically suspensive, meaning construction work can continue throughout the legal process, legal experts warn a ruling in favor of ADELFA could result in the permit being revoked — and in the most severe scenario, require the partial or full demolition of the completed facility. Even an unsuccessful challenge, however, would almost certainly delay the centre’s opening, a common outcome for legal disputes over migrant detention infrastructure in France.

    This facility is a central pillar of the new bilateral migration deal signed by UK Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and French Interior Minister Laurent Nunez last month, which expands on a 2023 agreement struck between the UK’s former Conservative government and France. Under the terms of the new £660m arrangement, the UK has set aside £160m in dedicated funding directly tied to measurable results in reducing Channel crossings, with payment for the detention centre explicitly conditional on the facility opening and delivering proven outcomes within its first year of operation. If the centre fails to meet performance benchmarks, or does not open as scheduled, the UK has confirmed the allocated funding will be withdrawn.

    For UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the France agreement is a core policy response to mounting political pressure to reduce the persistent flow of small boat crossings that have become a defining political issue in recent years. Once operational, the new centre will house migrants intercepted while attempting to reach the UK, before they are deported to their countries of origin or EU member states they previously transited. The facility will prioritize deportations of migrants from the 10 most common origin countries for 2025 crossings: Eritrea, Afghanistan, Iran, Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia, Iraq, Syria, Vietnam and Yemen. A pilot of the new detention and deportation model is already set to launch this month at an existing removal centre in nearby Coquelles, while construction of the permanent facility is completed.

    ADELFA president Nicolas Fournier said the group acknowledges a favorable ruling is not guaranteed, but remains committed to disrupting the project through the legal process. Fournier argued that the current approach of increasing law enforcement and detention capacity — what he described as overinvestment in repressive measures — has repeatedly failed to curb crossings, and that policymakers must pursue alternative, more humane solutions to address the risks migrants face when attempting the dangerous sea crossing.

    French legal experts have offered differing perspectives on the appeal’s potential outcome. Francois Benchendikh, a senior public law lecturer at Sciences Po Lille, noted the court’s central debate will revolve around whether the detention centre qualifies as residential accommodation under zoning rules, and that the nearby ammonia storage facility could be enough to justify annulling the permit. By contrast, Paris-based urban planning lawyer Alice Darson said the facility should be classified as a public service facility, which would exempt it from the residential zoning ban, though failure to properly consult fire safety officials could still lead to the permit being canceled.

    Migration policy analyst Dr. Mihnea Cuibus, a researcher at the UK’s Migration Observatory, noted that even if the centre opens on schedule, there are significant structural barriers to scaling up deportation operations from the facility, and that the project’s success will likely remain a contentious sticking point in bilateral relations between London and Paris. As of this reporting, the French government has not responded to requests for comment on the ongoing legal challenge, and has not released public figures for the total construction and operational costs of the facility. A recent report from the French Senate, however, estimated that a standard 140-bed migrant detention centre costs roughly €40 million (£36 million) to build. A UK government spokesperson reaffirmed that France remains committed to completing the project, and that the UK will only release funding once construction is finalized.

  • Canada signs landmark LNG energy deal with Germany

    Canada signs landmark LNG energy deal with Germany

    On a Wednesday announcement held in Vancouver, Canadian officials unveiled a historic long-term energy agreement that will open a new transatlantic energy corridor, shipping 1 million tons of Canadian liquified natural gas (LNG) to Germany every year for up to two decades. The deal, struck between the proposed Ksi Lisims LNG project on British Columbia’s northwest Pacific coast and Germany’s state-owned energy utility Securing Energy for Europe (SEFE), marks the first permanent LNG export route from Canada to Europe, addressing dual strategic priorities for both nations.

    For European partners, the agreement comes amid a years-long push to replace unreliable fossil fuel supplies following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as the continent continues to shore up diversified, stable energy sources amid ongoing global geopolitical volatility including the Middle East conflict. For Canada, the deal delivers a long-sought win for trade diversification: 2024 data from Canada’s national energy regulator shows nearly 100 percent of the country’s current LNG exports are delivered exclusively to the United States, making this new route a significant shift away from overreliance on a single trading partner.

    Canadian Energy Minister Tim Hodgson framed the pact as a defining milestone for the country’s global energy role during the announcement. “This is an exciting and important milestone that proves the world trusts Canada,” Hodgson said, noting the country’s standing as a stable democratic nation with abundant untapped natural resource reserves that can fill critical gaps in global energy markets. He added that the binding export commitment is expected to unlock the final investment decision for the Ksi Lisims project within months, with construction set to begin shortly after funding is secured. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who prioritized the project during a 2025 trade mission to Berlin with his cabinet, has designated Ksi Lisims as a project of national importance, qualifying it for a fast-track regulatory review process.

    Despite the federal government’s celebration of the deal, the Ksi Lisims LNG project faces substantial headwinds on multiple fronts. More than 15 Indigenous and environmental organizations have pledged to block the development, arguing the project carries unacceptable environmental risks and faces unresolved legal challenges. “Ksi Lisims is not a future Canadian export success story,” explained Alex Walker, a campaigner with Environmental Defence, one of the leading opposition groups. “This is a high-risk, legally contested fossil fuel project that has failed to attract private capital for decades.” While the Nisga’a Nation, on whose traditional territory the export terminal would be built, supports the project, multiple other First Nations groups have already launched formal legal challenges to stop its development.

    Domestic political friction is also growing within Carney’s own government over climate policy. Just last week, 14 Liberal Party Members of Parliament signed an open letter to the prime minister expressing “deep concern” over what they characterize as a rollback of the federal government’s stated climate and environmental commitments. On the same day the LNG deal was announced, former Canadian Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault — a prominent Greenpeace activist before entering electoral politics — confirmed he will resign from the Liberal caucus this summer to focus on climate advocacy outside of government. “These seven years, intense, demanding and deeply meaningful have been among the most formative of my life,” Guilbeault told reporters from Parliament. “It is time now for me to find new ways to pursue my life’s work.” Responding to Guilbeault’s departure, Hodgson framed the Liberal Party as a “big tent” that accommodates a range of ideological perspectives, saying “At the end of the day we come together, form a collective view and execute on that.”

    In a separate announcement made the same day, Carney confirmed Canada will purchase new early-warning aircraft technology from a Swedish defense manufacturer, rejecting bids from competing U.S. contractors. The decision aligns with Carney’s previously stated pledge to reduce Canadian military spending on American-made equipment, telling audiences last April that “the days of our military sending 70 cents of every dollar to the United States are over.”

  • Northern Ireland’s former unionist leader faces trial in sexual abuse case involving 2 girls

    Northern Ireland’s former unionist leader faces trial in sexual abuse case involving 2 girls

    In opening statements delivered Wednesday at a crown court trial in Northern Ireland, a senior prosecutor outlined decades-old allegations of repeated sexual abuse against two underage girls leveled against Jeffrey Donaldson, the former head of the region’s largest pro-union political party.

    The 63-year-old, who led the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) from 2021 to 2023, has entered a full not guilty plea to all 18 charges against him: one count of rape, four counts of gross indecency, and 13 counts of indecent assault. The alleged offenses are tied to the two complainants and are said to have occurred between 1985 and 2006.

    Addressing the jury at Newry Crown Court, prosecutor Rosemary Walsh explained that the two victims first brought their accounts of the “difficult and traumatic childhood incidents” to police more than two years ago. The younger complainant told investigators that Donaldson groped her when she was of primary school age, Walsh said. The older complainant, identified in court proceedings only as Complainant B, reported that the abuse persisted for multiple years. Years after the alleged abuse ended, Complainant B said a mediated meeting was arranged through a local church, where Donaldson personally apologized for the harm he caused in the past, Walsh added.

    When questioned by law enforcement following his March 2024 arrest, Donaldson dismissed the allegations as unbelievable, insisting he never sexually touched either complainant. Donaldson stepped down immediately from his role as DUP leader and resigned his seat in the UK House of Commons shortly after his arrest. His departure sent shockwaves through Northern Ireland’s political establishment, coming just weeks after the DUP ended a two-year boycott of the region’s devolved power-sharing government. The party had returned to the governing arrangement after Donaldson secured key concessions from the UK government and European Union over post-Brexit trading rules for the region, a contentious issue that had divided unionist communities for years.

    As DUP leader, Donaldson was the most prominent and influential figure in Northern Ireland’s unionist movement, which advocates for retaining the region’s constitutional status as part of the United Kingdom, opposing reunification with the Republic of Ireland.

    Donaldson’s wife Eleanor has also pleaded not guilty to charges of aiding and abetting her husband’s alleged crimes. However, she is not present in court for the proceedings: Judge Paul Ramsey ruled she is unfit to stand trial due to ongoing mental health challenges. While the jury will review the facts of the case against her, she cannot be convicted or sentenced if the jury finds the allegations proven. The overall trial is expected to proceed over the course of four weeks, with the jury set to deliver a verdict on all counts after closing arguments.

  • How a drink with Kylie Minogue got director on board

    How a drink with Kylie Minogue got director on board

    For a first-time feature director, heading up a high-profile documentary about one of pop music’s most iconic global stars sounds like an intimidating prospect — and for Michael Harte, a Donegal-born filmmaker, that intimidation almost led him to walk away from the project entirely.

    When veteran producer John Battsek reached out to Harte with an invitation: the Australian pop legend Kylie Minogue would be in Los Angeles, and Battsek wanted Harte to join them for a meeting to discuss the documentary concept. Harte immediately questioned if he was the right fit for the role. “I don’t think that’s a good idea, I’m not experienced enough as a director,” Harte recalled his internal thought process telling the BBC’s Evening Extra radio programme. Still, he reasoned, turning down a chance to sit down with Minogue at the legendary Chateau Marmont hotel was impossible. “I’ll go anyway. I’m not going to turn down a drink in the Chateau Marmont with Kylie Minogue,” he thought.

    That fateful meeting at the iconic Sunset Boulevard hotel in West Hollywood shifted Harte’s perspective completely in minutes. Describing the dim, moody dining space, Harte said Minogue walked into the room with an unmissable, magnetic energy. “It sounds cheesy to say, but she really was [like a beam of light]. There was an energy there that was intoxicating,” he said. In that moment, any doubt Harte had carried into the meeting melted away. “And then I thought, I do want to make this film. I am the right person to do it. I could tell there was an energy from her that I wanted to take and transfer onto film and if we can do that successfully, I think the film could be really special.”

    The resulting project is KYLIE, a three-part documentary series coming to Netflix that tracks Minogue’s decades-long career, tracing her path from a teenage actor on the hit Australian soap opera Neighbours to one of pop music’s most enduring, beloved performers. This collaboration marks a reunion for Harte and Battsek, who previously worked together on the hit Netflix documentary about David Beckham. For Harte, this is only his second credit as a director — his first came during the COVID-19 pandemic — after building a reputation as a respected editor, most recently for the critically acclaimed Michael J. Fox documentary Still.

    To craft a documentary that felt fresh and intimate, rather than just another recap of a celebrity’s career, Harte and his team made a deliberate choice to step away from the formal, structured sit-down interviews that are common in biographical documentaries. “We decided pretty early on that we’d call them chats,” Harte explained. “Kylie had been interviewed for decades, and we wanted this to feel different.”

    Instead, the series is anchored by Minogue’s personal archive, with the casual conversations taking place in her home, surrounded by boxes of personal photographs, home video, and decades of career footage that brought old memories flooding back. One of the biggest creative challenges the team faced was sorting through the sheer volume of content Minogue had accumulated over her career: beyond her decades of music releases and tours, Minogue has also worked consistently as an actor, leaving the team with everything from Neighbours on-set footage to high-fashion shoot outtakes, decades of media coverage, and unheard home recordings to sift through.

    For Harte, working through that massive archive offered a rare, intimate look at Minogue’s growth in real time. “I say to Kylie, it almost felt like the Truman Show. You watch somebody grow up on camera,” he said. “Because of that we’re not just invested in Kylie’s music or you know her as an artist you’re actually invested in her as a person.”

    Above all, Harte said what stood out most to him through the months of working on the project was Minogue’s extraordinary resilience, particularly in the face of relentless public criticism that started when she rose to fame as a teenager. “Kylie was 19 when that happened to her. I’m 43, if I got criticism like that, I’m retiring in the morning,” he said. That quiet strength left a lasting impact on how Harte shaped the documentary, a observation from Minogue’s ex-boyfriend Jason Donovan that never made it into the final cut but anchored the series’ emotional core: “There’s real fire in her.”

  • Starmer warns of Russian aggression as UK agrees new treaty with Poland

    Starmer warns of Russian aggression as UK agrees new treaty with Poland

    In a high-profile diplomatic gathering held at RAF Northolt in West London on Wednesday, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his Polish counterpart Donald Tusk formalized a landmark new bilateral defence and security partnership, capping the event with a solemn visit to the adjacent Battle of Britain Bunker, where the leaders laid a commemorative wreath to honor fallen World War II service members.

    Speaking after the signing ceremony, Starmer emphasized that Russian aggression stands as the most pressing shared threat facing both nations, with impacts extending far beyond the war in Ukraine to destabilize all European states. He framed the new accord as a transformative step that would deliver a “generational uplift” to the longstanding security relationship between the UK and Poland.

    The official text of the treaty explicitly names Russia as the most significant long-term threat to collective Euro-Atlantic security, and formalizes both nations’ commitment to countering Moscow’s malign influence across the region. It also reaffirms the UK and Poland’s unwavering, ironclad commitment to the collective defence principles of NATO, and addresses a range of additional shared security priorities. These include supporting domestic defence industry jobs, enhancing coordinated response capabilities for cyber attacks, strengthening cross-border security, coordinating crackdowns on transnational organized crime networks, and joint action to curb irregular migrant smuggling. Under a new dedicated joint action plan, the two countries will expand intelligence sharing, deploy emerging technologies to enhance border monitoring, and target the social media infrastructure that smuggling gangs use to recruit and coordinate operations.

    Tusk emphasized through an interpreter that the treaty is rooted in the shared core values of the two nations: respect for the rule of law and fundamental human rights. He pushed back against growing narratives that frame these principles as outdated, noting that these values remain non-negotiable foundations for the sovereignty and security of both Poland and the UK.

    Despite the official optimism surrounding the agreement, independent defence analysts have raised pointed questions about the tangible impact of the new treaty and its added value compared to previous bilateral accords. Ed Arnold, a defence adviser at The D Group and senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a leading UK defence think tank, told the BBC that the new agreement delivers little meaningful new content on core defence and security cooperation. Arnold pointed out that the UK and Poland already signed major bilateral security agreements in 2018 and 2023, leaving him unclear what unique role the new treaty will fill.

    He added that the bulk of the new text focuses heavily on migration and related border security issues, rather than advancing core defence cooperation. Arnold warned that lumping multiple disparate policy areas into a single treaty carries inherent risks: if the two countries experience disagreements over one policy domain, such as migration management, those tensions could spill over and damage critical defence and security collaboration. He also questioned whether the UK currently has sufficient institutional and resource capacity to deliver on all the treaty commitments it has made across its growing portfolio of bilateral international agreements, concluding that the accord falls far short of the transformative, generational change that Starmer has claimed it delivers.

  • Spanish police raid HQ of governing Socialists as corruption probe escalates

    Spanish police raid HQ of governing Socialists as corruption probe escalates

    In a dramatic development that has sent shockwaves through Spanish politics, law enforcement agencies have executed a raid on the Madrid headquarters of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s governing Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE), seizing confidential documents linked to an ongoing probe into alleged obstruction of judicial proceedings. The operation marks the latest escalation in a cascade of corruption scandals that have plagued Sánchez’s administration in recent months, putting intense political pressure on the embattled prime minister.

  • Man found with AI-generated child pornographic material fined €400

    Man found with AI-generated child pornographic material fined €400

    In a landmark legal milestone for the Republic of Ireland, a 47-year-old man has become the first person in the nation to receive a conviction for offenses linked to AI-generated child sexual exploitation material. Stephen Buckley, who appeared before Tralee District Court in County Kerry, accepted full responsibility for possession of four illicit images created entirely or in part using artificial intelligence technology.

    The investigation into Buckley’s activities traces back two years, when the United States’ National Center for Missing & Exploited Children flagged suspicious activity linked to his devices and issued an alert to the Garda’s Dublin-based Online Exploitation Unit. Following the initial tip, detectives in Tralee moved to secure a search warrant in February 2024, entering Buckley’s home to carry out the court-ordered search. During the operation, officers seized multiple mobile devices from the property and conducted an official interview with Buckley, according to reporting from Irish public broadcaster RTÉ.

    Forensic analysis of the seized devices uncovered the prohibited content: one digitally altered image of a young girl created using an AI-powered editing application, alongside three animated, cartoon-style videos depicting underage teenagers. Buckley was subsequently taken into custody and formally charged with possession of AI-generated child pornography.

    In court proceedings, Buckley’s defense solicitor Pat Mann noted that his client had no prior criminal history on record. Mann emphasized that the case had already taken a severe toll on Buckley’s personal life, and argued that a recorded criminal conviction was unnecessary, pointing to Buckley’s full cooperation with investigators and his completion of more than 30 professional counselling sessions to address his harmful behavior.

    However, Judge David Waters rejected the request to avoid a recorded conviction, stressing that the offense carries serious implications for child protection. The judge noted that the downloading of the material demonstrated clear premeditation and intentional action, pushing back against claims that the presence of the content on Buckley’s phone was accidental. In his final ruling, Judge Waters officially convicted Buckley and ordered him to pay a €400 fine, marking the first conviction of its kind in the Republic of Ireland.

  • What critical infrastructure is Russia ‘relentlessly targeting’?

    What critical infrastructure is Russia ‘relentlessly targeting’?

    In a recent high-stakes announcement that has sent ripples through global security circles, the UK’s Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ) has pulled back the curtain on what intelligence officials describe as a sustained, aggressive campaign of targeting by Russia against critical international infrastructure. Speaking after the release of GCHQ’s alert, the BBC’s long-serving security correspondent Frank Gardner has broken down the full scope of the threat, unpacking the details of what infrastructure is in Moscow’s crosshairs and what the targeting means for nations around the world.

    According to the intelligence laid out in GCHQ’s statement, Russian intelligence operatives and cyber units have been relentlessly focused on two broad categories of critical infrastructure that underpin daily life and national security across Western nations and allied states: energy networks and maritime transportation systems. These are not random targets; intelligence assessments show Russian actors have been conducting prolonged reconnaissance operations, mapping out network vulnerabilities, and positioning malware that could be activated to disrupt operations at a moment’s notice.

    Gardner’s analysis notes that the campaign aligns with broader patterns of Russian aggressive intelligence activity in the wake of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. GCHQ’s assessment stresses that while much of the activity so far has been pre-positioning rather than active disruption, the level of risk remains elevated, as the Russian state has shown a willingness to use cyber tools to create widespread disruption to civilian infrastructure during periods of heightened geopolitical tension.

    The GCHQ announcement also calls on private operators and national security agencies across affected countries to boost defensive measures, patch critical vulnerabilities, and increase monitoring for suspicious activity on their networks. Gardner points out that the public disclosure of this intelligence is unusual for GCHQ, a signal that the agency considers the threat severe enough to warrant public warning rather than quiet behind-the-scenes mitigation.

  • A warmer world creates bigger and more damaging hailstones, study says

    A warmer world creates bigger and more damaging hailstones, study says

    As human-caused climate change continues to reshape extreme weather patterns across the globe, a groundbreaking new study published in the journal *Nature* has uncovered a worrying consequence of rising global temperatures: a dramatic increase in the frequency of large, destructive hailstorms by the end of the 21st century.

    Led by a research team with lead authors based in China, the study uses advanced three-dimensional modeling of hail formation – a method that fills key gaps in previous hail research, which mostly focused on the United States and only examined changes in storm frequency rather than hail size – to project how shifting atmospheric conditions will alter hail activity worldwide.

    The core link between a warming planet and larger hail lies in two key atmospheric changes driven by greenhouse gas emissions from burning coal, oil, and natural gas. Warmer air holds more water vapor: roughly 4% more moisture for every one degree Fahrenheit increase in temperature, or 7% per degree Celsius. This extra moisture injects more energy into storm systems, generating stronger updrafts – the upward currents of air required to form and sustain hail. At the same time, higher atmospheric temperatures mean smaller hailstones are more likely to melt before reaching the ground, while larger, heavier stones survive the descent. “We’ve seen record hailstones in recent years. I find this extremely concerning because we’re not really building our environment to be resilient to hail,” said study co-author John Allen, a meteorology professor at Central Michigan University, in an interview from Guymon, Oklahoma, where he was joining field researchers who penetrate active hailstorms to study their inner mechanics.

    Depending on the volume of future heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions, the study projects that global occurrences of hail larger than 1.2 inches (30 millimeters) – roughly the size of a U.S. half-dollar coin, between a large marble and a golf ball – will jump by between 38% and 47% by 2100. By contrast, storms producing smaller hail will decline by 4% to 8% globally.

    Geographically, the most pronounced increases in large hail are expected to hit Argentina, Western Europe, Canada, and the U.S. Northern Plains. Meanwhile, many tropical regions will see an overall reduction in hail as smaller stones melt more frequently in warmer upper-atmosphere temperatures.

    Unlike many other extreme weather events, hail rarely causes direct human fatalities, but its economic toll is already staggering. The study estimates annual hail damage costs hit roughly $10 billion in the U.S. and $80 billion globally – figures that already outpace average annual damage from tornadoes, and rival the cost of multiple hurricane events each year. Larger hailstones deliver exponentially more destructive force: they weigh more, fall faster, and hit with far greater impact than smaller stones. While small hail mostly harms crops, hailstones measuring 2 inches (5 centimeters) or larger can punch through vehicle bodies, destroy roofs, damage solar energy infrastructure, and cripple other built assets, explained Andreas Prein, a climate scientist at ETH Zurich who was not involved in the research. Where a single large hailstone may only leave a repairable hole in a roof, a full hailstorm of large stones typically requires a complete, costly roof replacement, Allen noted.

    Outside experts emphasized that while climate change is increasing the risk of more large hail, total future damage will not be shaped by weather patterns alone. “This is a meaningful climate signal,” said Walker Ashley, a meteorology professor at Northern Illinois University who did not participate in the study. “But disaster losses are not driven by the peril alone.” As population and development expand into hail-prone regions – including the rapid construction of residential properties and utility-scale solar farms in high-risk areas – total risk will rise even faster. “Climate change may be increasing the potential for larger, more damaging hail in some regions, but the future loss signal will also depend heavily on where people build, what they build, how resilient those structures are, and how land use changes,” Ashley added.

    The Associated Press received financial support from private foundations for its climate and environmental coverage, and retains full editorial control over all content. Full details on AP’s standards for philanthropic partnerships, a list of supporters, and coverage areas are available on AP.org.