标签： Europe

The first visit by envoys of former U.S. President Donald Trump to Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale invasion carried layers of loaded symbolic meaning, opening a new, highly anticipated chapter of diplomatic outreach to end the devastating 3-year conflict. The delegation, made up of longtime Trump associate Steve Witkoff and the former president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, made the journey to Kyiv by rail, a necessary precaution that highlighted the persistent danger of Russian drone attacks targeting travel across the country — a threat so severe that air travel remained too risky for the high-profile delegation, just hours after the pair held a closed-door meeting with Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin.

In a deliberate, pointed gesture loaded with historical and political subtext, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky chose to greet the delegation at Kyiv’s Saint Sophia Cathedral, an architectural and cultural landmark that anchors Ukraine’s centuries-long national identity. The choice of location was no accident: the cathedral stands just a short distance from the headquarters of Ukraine’s national security services, which was struck by Russian drones only three days before the meeting. The placement sent an unspoken message about Ukraine’s resilience amid relentless attacks, and its unwavering claim to its sovereign territory and history.

The discussions between the two sides stretched across several hours, before European national security advisers, including Britain’s top intelligence and security official Jonathan Powell, joined the talks to contribute to the diplomatic process. When the negotiations wrapped up, all participating parties described the discussions as substantive and constructive, with many expressing cautious optimism about reviving the past trilateral negotiation framework that brought together U.S., European, and regional stakeholders to work toward a ceasefire.

But beneath the positive public messaging, deep, fundamental divides separate the two warring parties, with no obvious path to bridging them in the near term. The U.S. delegation arrived in Kyiv straight from meetings in Moscow, where Putin told the envoys that Russian forces were continuing to make steady, tangible progress along the front lines. That narrative stood in direct contradiction to the account Ukrainian officials presented to the delegation: Ukrainian military officials reported that in August alone, their forces captured more territory than they ceded, while Russian forces suffered an estimated 42,000 dead and wounded casualties over the 30-day period.

Putin also laid out his core non-negotiable demands to the envoys, framing them as necessary to address what he calls the “root causes” of the full-scale invasion. His longstanding strategic requirements include Ukraine ceding control of occupied eastern territory to Russia, permanently abandoning its bid to join NATO, and reducing the overall size of Ukraine’s national military.

Following the Kyiv talks, Zelensky pushed back firmly against Russia’s terms, reiterating that Ukraine would only accept any peace deal anchored by strong, unambiguous security guarantees, including the right to maintain a robust, fully functional national army. He gave no indication that Ukraine would be willing to surrender any of its sovereign territory in the eastern Donbas region, calling the issue “difficult” in a measured, clear statement that left no room for misunderstanding of Kyiv’s position.

Witkoff, speaking to reporters after the meeting, said that tangible progress had been made during the diplomatic outreach, and that all the core elements needed for a final settlement were already on the table. But he acknowledged that both Russia and Ukraine would have to make major compromises to narrow their stark differences on core issues — a step that neither side has shown any willingness to take at this point in the conflict.

For now, officials and diplomats in Kyiv are bracing for continued fighting through the coming months, with expectations of another harsh winter of Russian attacks on energy infrastructure and civilian targets. While some diplomatic observers see a potential window for a breakthrough peace deal next spring, other analysts and policymakers are far less optimistic about the prospects for a near-term end to the war.

Zelensky did note one immediate, small benefit of the diplomatic push: both sides agreed to a temporary pause in air strikes to accommodate the high-level visit, giving Kyiv’s civilian population a brief respite from regular drone and missile attacks. But few observers expect that temporary lull in fighting to hold for more than a few days, as both sides continue to mass forces along the front and prepare for new offensive operations in the coming months.

Leaders of Germany’s right-wing populist party Alternative for Germany (AfD) marked a potential turning point in the country’s regional politics on election night, as early exit polling data projected the party would secure a substantial lead in the state election for Saxony-Anhalt.

The gathering of AfD senior figures, held in the state’s capital Magdeburg on election evening, broke into cheers and celebratory remarks as the first projections from major public polling firms were released. The projected lead, which political analysts describe as larger than most pre-election surveys anticipated, marks a significant milestone for the party, which has steadily grown its support in eastern German states over the past decade.

Saxony-Anhalt, a former East German state with a population of roughly 2.2 million, has long been seen as a stronghold for AfD’s grassroots organizing. The party has centered its recent campaign on local issues including economic disillusionment, migration policy opposition, and criticism of Germany’s federal ruling coalition’s handling of energy and cost-of-living challenges. If the projected lead holds once all ballots are counted, AfD is on track to claim its first ever state governorship in German federal politics, a shift that could reshape national political dynamics and influence policy debates ahead of upcoming national elections.

Political observers note that the projected outcome reflects growing voter dissatisfaction with mainstream parties in the region, and could signal further gains for right-wing populist forces across Europe in coming electoral cycles. As counting of absentee and mail-in ballots continues overnight, official preliminary results are expected to be released by the state election commission by early Wednesday morning.

Initial exit poll projections have delivered a seismic political shift to the heart of eastern Germany, with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) poised to claim a commanding lead in the Saxony-Anhalt state election, outstripping all long-dominant mainstream parties by a substantial margin.

According to the early projections, the AfD is on course to capture more than 44% of the popular vote, a result that puts it nearly 26 percentage points ahead of its nearest competitor, the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which is projected to finish with just 18.4% of the vote. While the final seat count and the possibility of an AfD majority remain unresolved pending full official results, the party’s leadership has already declared it has earned a clear mandate to lead the state.

The projected outcome marks an unprecedented moment for post-World War II German politics: no far-right party has ever won control of a regional German state since 1945. A governing majority in Saxony-Anhalt would grant the AfD critical regional authority over key policy areas including policing, K-12 education, and cultural policy, giving the party tangible governing power for the first time at the state level.

Home to roughly 2.1 million residents, Saxony-Anhalt’s regional AfD branch is officially classified as a far-right extremist organization by Germany’s domestic intelligence service — a label the party’s charismatic state leader Ulrich Siegmund has repeatedly rejected. Siegmund has already drawn a hard line on coalition negotiations, confirming he will refuse to enter any governing alliance with other established parties.

The projected performance exceeded even the most recent pre-election polling estimates, and reaction from the party’s top ranks was immediate. Siegmund joined AfD’s national co-leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla in celebrating the projected result, with all three expressing unbridled elation at the early numbers. When the exit poll projections flashed on screens at the AfD’s election night headquarters in Magdeburg, hundreds of gathered supporters erupted into cheers, before breaking into song with Germany’s national anthem.

Speaking to the crowd, Siegmund framed the outcome as a watershed moment for the party and the region. “We have made history in this state,” he said.

For mainstream parties, the projected result has sparked deep concern. CDU lead candidate Sven Schulze quickly conceded defeat, acknowledging the scale of the upset. “This was an extremely tough and intensive election campaign,” Schulze said, adding that his party would now have to reckon with the unexpected outcome. Lars Klingbeil, national leader of the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) — the junior partner in Germany’s current national governing coalition alongside the CDU — described the result as “truly dramatic” and called it a clear “signal to Berlin” that national politicians must address the growing discontent that fueled the AfD’s rise.

Voter turnout hit an unusually high 78% in the election, a figure that political analysts attribute in part to high enthusiasm among AfD supporters. Many of those voters told reporters the party has filled a gap that established parties have left open. “This man gives us what no one else can give,” Magdeburg resident Ollie told the BBC of Siegmund. “No matter what government, they all just promise things to get better. This is a party for the working people. It is the alternative for Germany.”

The final fate of an AfD majority hinges on whether one or more small regional parties manage to clear the 5% vote threshold required to gain seats in the state parliament. If a small party falls just short of the threshold, any seats it would have earned are reallocated across the rest of the parliament, increasing the AfD’s chances of securing an outright governing majority. Full official results are expected in the coming hours, which will resolve the question of whether the AfD can make good on its bid to make history as the first post-WWII far-right party to lead a German state.

On Sunday, voters across Saxony-Anhalt, an eastern German state home to 2.1 million people just west of Berlin, headed to the polls for a state legislative election that carries historic ramifications for modern German politics. This vote stands as the most promising opportunity to date for the Alternative for Germany (AfD), the nation’s far-right, anti-immigration opposition party, to claim its first state governorship — a milestone that would mark the first far-right regional government in Germany since the end of World War II.

The election comes amid a period of deep public dissatisfaction with Germany’s unpopular national ruling coalition, which has failed to convince voters it can reverse the country’s ongoing sluggish economic growth. A win for the AfD here would deliver more than just a historic first for the 13-year-old party: it would also be a symbolic body blow to Chancellor Friedrich Merz, whose center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has held control of Saxony-Anhalt for the past 24 years.

As the largest opposition party in Germany’s federal parliament, the AfD has built its strongest base of support in the formerly communist, economically disadvantaged eastern states, where Saxony-Anhalt is located. The party’s gubernatorial candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, has openly declared that “we will write history here” as the AfD pushes to win an absolute majority in the state legislature.

An absolute majority would allow the AfD to bypass the long-standing “firewall” policy among Germany’s mainstream political parties, which have uniformly refused to enter any governing coalition or power-sharing agreement with the AfD. Notably, the Saxony-Anhalt branch of the AfD is one of several regional party chapters classified as a confirmed right-wing extremist group by Germany’s domestic intelligence service — an allegation the party has forcefully denied.

In a joint statement earlier this week, the AfD’s national co-leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla defended the party’s policy agenda. They argued the AfD “wants to implement the law of the land — for example with a view to illegal migration — and ensure that Germany remains worth living in.” The pair criticized the governing record of mainstream parties, framing an absolute AfD majority as “almost the only chance to change course” for the region and the country.

Chancellor Merz has already warned that an AfD-led regional government would be a self-defeating move for Saxony-Anhalt’s economy. “If there were to be an absolute majority for a right-wing populist party next Monday, then international investors will think three times about whether they still invest in Saxony-Anhalt,” he said. Ahead of voting day, thousands of demonstrators gathered in Magdeburg, the state capital, to rally against the prospect of a far-right regional administration.

Despite consistent polling showing strong AfD support, the party’s path to power remains uncertain even if it outperforms all other contenders by a wide margin. Siegmund has stated he will only pursue the governorship if the AfD secures an absolute majority, arguing that this outcome is the only way to avoid the pattern of broken pre-election campaign promises that has plagued multi-party coalitions in the region. If the AfD falls short of a full majority, analysts agree the party is extremely unlikely to find any willing coalition partner among mainstream parties.

The final outcome of the election could also become far more complicated depending on whether smaller opposition parties clear the 5% popular vote threshold required to earn seats in the state legislature. The center-left Social Democrats and the Green Party are both considered at risk of falling short of this cutoff, which would reshape the seat distribution and any potential coalition negotiations.

The incumbent CDU governor, Sven Schulze, has echoed mainstream party policy, confirming he will never enter a governing arrangement with the AfD and stating that his own party stands “100%” behind his leadership. Even so, if the AfD wins the most seats but fails to secure an absolute majority, Schulze will face a major challenge in assembling a stable governing coalition.

This scenario is not without precedent: just two years ago, the AfD finished first in a state election in neighboring Thuringia, but was unable to form a government, and a CDU governor took power via a minority administration. Schulze could attempt a similar arrangement by forming a loose alliance with smaller parties, but this would be a precarious undertaking. Any minority government would almost certainly require at least tacit backing from The Left Party, a hard-left group the CDU has explicitly ruled out working with.

This election is just the first of three major electoral tests facing Merz’s CDU and its national coalition partner, the Social Democrats, in the coming weeks. Two more state elections will be held on September 20: one in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, another eastern German state where the incumbent center-left government is facing a strong challenge from the AfD, and a second in the capital city of Berlin, which is currently governed by the CDU. Political observers across Germany and across Europe are watching the results closely, as a historic AfD win in Saxony-Anhalt would signal a major political shift in the country’s post-Cold War political landscape.