标签： Asia

DUBAI – Rising geopolitical conflicts and shipping route disruptions are creating significant upward pressure on global food prices, according to expert analysis presented at Thursday’s Intercontinental Commodity Exchange summit in Dubai. Industry leaders warned that market nervousness is exacerbating inflationary trends despite adequate global grain supplies.

Thierry Beaupied, Vice President of Romania-based Trans-Oil Group, emphasized that psychological market factors are now driving price increases. “Markets are extremely nervous,” Beaupied stated. “Even with sufficient global grain and corn inventories, regional bombings and transport disruptions trigger buying frenzies as purchasers anticipate potential shortages.”

The Black Sea conflict emerged as a primary concern, with climate shocks and damaged Ukrainian energy infrastructure creating additional volatility in grain and vegetable oil markets. Beaupied noted that approximately 60% of global sunflower oil originates from the Black Sea region, maintaining “tight and bullish” market conditions for vegetable oils in the medium term.

For the United Arab Emirates, the challenge centers on price stability rather than physical shortages. The Middle Eastern nation remains generally well-supplied, with vegetable oils primarily sourced from South America. However, intense competition from major buyers including India and Iran continues to support elevated pricing structures.

Logistical complexities are compounding the situation, with many vessels now discharging cargo in India before proceeding to Arabian Gulf ports to optimize freight expenses. This rerouting adds layers of complexity to supply chain management.

Red Sea security concerns are forcing exporters to reconsider traditional trade routes. While Egypt’s grain imports remain relatively unaffected due to their reliance on Black Sea and American sources, exports of processed wheat products to neighboring regions have noticeably slowed.

Mahmoud Kalila, Managing Director of Elementra Commodities in Egypt, revealed that security concerns have prompted investments in alternative logistics infrastructure, including enhanced road networks and proprietary shipping fleets.

The summit also highlighted financial technology’s expanding role in managing cross-border trade risk. Nabeel Ahmed, Managing Director of HexTrust, emphasized the UAE’s critical position as a regional financial hub where efficient payment systems are becoming increasingly vital.

“When wealth moves, money has to move with it,” Ahmed explained. “Regulated digital solutions enable businesses to transfer value within seconds instead of weeks, providing crucial flexibility during periods of market volatility.”

Experts concluded that food security will remain intrinsically linked to geopolitical stability, with UAE consumers increasingly exposed to global market forces that extend far beyond local supermarket shelves.

Indonesian financial regulators initiated emergency stabilization measures on Thursday following a massive two-day market selloff that erased approximately $80 billion in market valuation. The dramatic downturn was triggered by index provider MSCI raising serious concerns about ownership transparency and trading practices within the Indonesian equity market.

The Jakarta Composite Index experienced extreme volatility, plummeting 7.4% on Wednesday followed by an additional 8% decline on Thursday that activated circuit-breaker trading halts. The benchmark ultimately closed with a moderated 1% loss following intervention announcements from authorities.

Central to the crisis are investor apprehensions regarding President Prabowo Subianto’s economic policies, particularly the expansion of fiscal deficits and increased governmental involvement in financial markets. These concerns were exacerbated by recent controversial appointments, including the president’s nephew to the central bank and the dismissal of respected Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati last year.

In response to MSCI’s potential downgrade warning, Indonesian authorities unveiled a comprehensive package of corrective measures. The Financial Services Authority (OJK) announced the doubling of free-float requirements for listed companies from 7.5% to 15%, alongside commitments to enhance ownership transparency through detailed disclosure of shareholdings above and below 5% thresholds.

Mahendra Siregar, Head of OJK, indicated during a press conference that communications with MSCI have been constructive, with expectations for resolution by March. Meanwhile, the Indonesian rupiah continued its decline, trading at 16,745 against the US dollar, approaching recent record lows.

International financial institutions responded decisively. Goldman Sachs and UBS both downgraded their recommendations for Indonesian equities, with Goldman warning of potential outflows reaching $7.8 billion in a worst-case downgrade scenario. Market analysts characterized the selloff as predominantly driven by structural concerns rather than fundamental economic weaknesses.

Despite the aggressive measures, analysts anticipate continued market fragility in the near term, emphasizing that investor confidence will require demonstrable improvements in transparency and consistent policy implementation rather than merely announcements of intent.

Abu Dhabi’s real estate sector is positioned for a year of sustained expansion in 2026, bolstered by robust economic fundamentals and favorable demographic trends. According to the latest ValuStrat Market Outlook, the emirate’s property landscape demonstrates remarkable resilience across residential, commercial, and hospitality segments, creating an environment conducive to continued investor engagement and market stability.

Residential markets are anticipated to experience accelerated capital appreciation, with values projected to surge by 16%—a notable increase from the 13% growth recorded in the previous year. Rental rates are expected to rise by an average of 6%, with apartments poised to outperform villas in capital gains. This shift reflects evolving buyer preferences emphasizing value optimization, convenience, and lifestyle amenities, alongside emerging affordability constraints in the villa rental segment.

Supply dynamics continue to favor sellers, with approximately 6,500 new units expected to enter the market despite a theoretical pipeline of over 16,000 units. This persistent delivery delay pattern maintains occupancy rates at approximately 90%, sustaining upward pressure on prices across various submarkets.

The commercial sector demonstrates even more pronounced tightness, particularly in Grade A office space. With minimal new supply additions—only 4,200 square meters of gross leasable area anticipated—and occupancy rates reaching 93%, prime office rents are forecast to increase by over 20%, while capital values may rise by 10%. The competition for premium, well-located office spaces remains intense as businesses prioritize building quality and strategic location.

Hospitality indicators show promising improvement, with average occupancy projected at 82% alongside an average daily rate of Dh551 and revenue per available room of Dh452. The scheduled opening of several luxury properties, including Mondrian Abu Dhabi and The Mangroves Abu Dhabi, complements the emirate’s tourism strategy aiming to attract 39.3 million visitors annually by 2030.

Underpinning this real estate momentum is Abu Dhabi’s strong economic outlook, with GDP growth anticipated around 5% and inflation remaining manageable at approximately 2%. Population growth toward 4.5 million residents, coupled with significant infrastructure developments including the Etihad Rail project and enhanced light rail connectivity, provides additional structural support for sustained real estate performance throughout 2026.

Abu Dhabi’s aviation sector has achieved an unprecedented milestone, with its airport network processing over 33 million passengers throughout 2025. This remarkable figure represents the highest annual passenger volume in the emirate’s history, cementing its position as a rapidly expanding global aviation hub.

The crown jewel of this network, Zayed International Airport (AUH), has emerged as the fastest-growing mega airport across the Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) region. In its second full year of operations, AUH handled approximately 98% of all passenger traffic within the emirate’s airport system. The fourth quarter alone witnessed 8.59 million passengers passing through its gates, marking a substantial 13.8% increase compared to the same period in the previous year.

This extraordinary growth was propelled by strategic network expansion that saw 39 new route launches and the addition of seven new airline partners. Major carriers including China Eastern Airlines, Ethiopian Airlines, Eurowings, Jazeera Airways, and Etihad Airways either initiated or enhanced services to key global destinations. The expanded connectivity now spans from established hubs like Addis Ababa, Atlanta, and Hong Kong to emerging markets such as Berlin, Hanoi, Pune, and Warsaw.

The airport’s operational excellence was further demonstrated through multiple days where daily passenger traffic exceeded the 100,000 mark, underscoring AUH’s efficiency and its growing appeal as a preferred hub for both direct and transfer passengers.

Ahmed Juma Al Shamisi, Acting Chief Executive Officer at Abu Dhabi Airports, emphasized that surpassing the 33 million passenger milestone reflects the organization’s operational readiness to meet escalating global demand. He attributed this performance to concerted efforts across all operational levels to fulfill the strategic vision set by leadership, with continued focus on maintaining momentum through operational excellence and expanded cargo capabilities.

The achievement marks the 19th consecutive period of double-digit growth in passenger traffic—a record in itself—and the first time Abu Dhabi’s five airports collectively surpassed 30 million annual passengers. This consistent multi-year growth trajectory has been driven by strategic network expansion, strengthened airline partnerships, and sustained investment in capacity enhancement and passenger experience improvements.

Complementing this success, cargo volumes experienced significant growth with nearly 770,000 tonnes handled across the emirate’s airports—a 12% year-on-year increase that highlights Abu Dhabi’s growing prominence as a strategic trade corridor.

The year 2025 also brought multiple industry accolades, including Best Airport for Retail at the Frontier Awards and recognition as Highly Commended at the Aviation Business Awards. AUH further distinguished itself by achieving ACI’s Level 2 Accessibility Accreditation and the coveted Level 3 Customer Experience Accreditation, alongside awards for innovative technology systems and passenger experience initiatives.