标签： Asia

What began as merchant-led demonstrations in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar on December 28, 2025, has transformed into Iran’s most significant protest movement in decades. The government initially perceived these protests as manageable economic grievances from traditionally conservative bazaar merchants seeking currency stabilization and inflation control. In an unprecedented move, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei openly acknowledged the merchants’ concerns, marking the first time he had ever legitimized any demonstration.

However, the situation rapidly escalated beyond governmental expectations. Protests spread to over 25 provinces, evolving into a nationwide challenge to the regime’s survival. The government responded with violent crackdowns that reportedly resulted in more than 6,000 protester fatalities.

The movement’s most significant development has been the incorporation of Iran’s ethnic minorities into the protest landscape. Iran’s population of 93 million includes substantial ethnic diversity: while Persians constitute 51% of the population, Azeris represent 24%, Kurds number between 7-15 million (8-17%), with Arabs and Baluch minorities comprising 3% and 2% respectively.

Kurdish communities initiated their involvement through protests in Malekshahi, Ilam province, on January 3. A subsequent security forces raid on wounded protesters at Ilam hospital generated widespread outrage and international attention. Kurdish leadership demonstrated strategic sophistication by calling for regional strikes rather than protests, remembering the brutal suppression during the 2022-23 “Women, Life, Freedom” uprising.

The southeast Baluchestan region joined the movement on January 9, with protests emerging from Friday prayers, driven by longstanding ethnic and religious marginalization. Iranian Azerbaijan participated more cautiously and later, reflecting their relatively privileged position within Iran’s power structures.

The protest movement reveals fundamental divisions about political change. Urban Persian-majority protesters typically seek social freedoms, economic recovery, and Western normalization. Ethnic communities carry additional demands for decentralization, linguistic rights, cultural recognition, and genuine power-sharing—demands historically labeled as separatist by Tehran.

Complicating the opposition landscape, Reza Pahlavi—son of the last Shah—has positioned himself as a transitional leader. However, his published roadmap for transition proposes concentrated power resembling the current supreme leader’s authority and characterizes ethnic demands as national security threats, deepening skepticism in minority regions.

The future of Iran’s protest movement hinges on whether any political transition can address the fundamental tension between centralized power and ethnic pluralism. Lasting change will require incorporating diverse regional and community demands rather than perpetuating Persian-dominated power structures.

Foreign policy experts are raising alarms that President Donald Trump’s recent pattern of rapid military engagements is creating a dangerous precedent as his administration contemplates potential strikes against Iranian targets. This emerging ‘in-and-out’ intervention model, demonstrated in operations like the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, provides tactical successes with minimal political cost, effectively emboldening further military adventurism according to defense analysts.

The Stimson Centre’s Will Smith notes that swift tactical victories without significant domestic opposition have left Trump ’emboldened and confident’ in this approach. Recent reports indicate the administration is weighing strikes on Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij paramilitary sites, while Qatar confirmed partial US personnel withdrawals from al-Udeid air base—a facility previously struck by Iran following US attacks on nuclear facilities.

Defense expert Andrew Curtis expressed concern that successful interventions spark thoughts of ‘what else can I do with this toy,’ creating potential momentum for additional conflicts. However, Trump appeared to moderate intervention rhetoric recently, stating protest-related killings had ceased and his administration would monitor Iran’s internal processes before deciding on military action.

Royal United Services Institute director Neil Melvin characterizes this as a ‘low-cost model of regime change’ that represents a significant shift in US foreign policy. Unlike traditional nation-building approaches requiring substantial troop commitments and financial assistance, the current strategy employs proxy forces and limited military engagement to achieve political objectives without extensive entanglement.

Regional power dynamics further complicate the situation. While Russia abandoned Syrian ally Bashar al-Assad due to Ukrainian commitments, and China remains focused on Taiwan with limited appetite for Middle Eastern adventurism, Iran presents a more formidable challenge than Venezuela. Years of US sanctions have crippled Iran’s economy and sparked widespread protests, with some reports indicating armed opposition groups receiving Israeli support.

The practical limitations of simultaneous operations present additional constraints. Curtis notes that while no practical military constraints exist, the US lacks capacity for concurrent planning of major operations against multiple targets, meaning any actions against Iran would need to occur sequentially rather than parallel to other engagements.

Potential Iranian strikes would likely focus on ballistic missile capabilities to prevent retaliation against US bases, building on previous successful operations including undetected B-2 bomber flights from Missouri and submarine-launched cruise missile attacks from waters south of Iran.

Former CIA Director and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has ignited international outrage by explicitly advocating for the manipulation of historical narratives surrounding Israel’s military campaign in Gaza. During a January 13th virtual event hosted by the pro-Israeli MirYam Institute, Pompeo asserted that the documentation of the conflict must be shaped to ensure future history books emphasize Israeli victimhood while minimizing Palestinian casualties.

The MirYam Institute, led by former Israeli army combat veteran Benjamin Anthony, describes itself as a platform for diverse Israeli perspectives. Pompeo’s remarks directly addressed historical framing, stating: ‘There were victims in Gaza, there are civilian casualties in every war that’s ever been fought. But the victims were the people of the nation-state of Israel. The aggressor was the Iranian regime in the proxy of Hamas.’

These comments emerge amid overwhelming evidence of humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, where United Nations experts and genocide scholars have documented over 71,400 fatalities and widespread destruction, characterizing the conflict as genocidal. International human rights organizations continue to report extensive civilian casualties, mass displacement, and systemic infrastructure collapse in the besieged territory.

Social media platforms erupted with condemnation from journalists, activists, and human rights advocates who accused Pompeo of openly endorsing historical erasure. Palestinian journalist Motasem A Dalloul responded on X: ‘They even are working to continue the genocide inflicted on us after their death!’ Numerous critics drew parallels to Holocaust denial, noting the explicit attempt to rewrite historical accounting of civilian suffering.

This incident reflects Pompeo’s established pattern of support for Israeli military actions. Previously documented visits to Israeli ‘rejuvenation centers’ for soldiers returning from Gaza and public demonstrations of solidarity with Israeli forces have characterized his post-government career. The current controversy highlights ongoing tensions between factual documentation of the conflict’s human cost and political efforts to control its historical perception, particularly as Israel continues to violate ceasefire agreements with reported violations exceeding 1,200 incidents since the October 2023 truce.

MANILA, Philippines — In a significant strategic move, Japan and the Philippines formalized a comprehensive defense agreement on Thursday enabling tax-free transfers of essential supplies including ammunition, fuel, and provisions during joint military exercises. The Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement, signed by Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro in Manila, represents a concerted effort to enhance regional deterrence capabilities amid escalating tensions with China.

The pact, which requires ratification by Japanese legislators, facilitates deepened military cooperation between the two nations who both face separate territorial disputes with Beijing in the East China Sea and South China Sea. The agreement specifically aims to strengthen joint training operations while improving disaster response coordination and support for United Nations peacekeeping missions.

During the signing ceremony, both diplomats emphasized their shared commitment to upholding international law and freedom of navigation. Lazaro stated both nations recognize ‘the value of promoting the rule of law, including the freedom of navigation and overflight, especially in the South China Sea.’ Motegi similarly noted their mutual opposition to ‘unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force or coercion’—a clear reference to China’s increasing assertiveness without directly naming the country.

The defense pact follows the Reciprocal Access Agreement signed in mid-2024, which already permits troop deployments between the two countries for expanded combat exercises including live-fire drills. Additionally, Japan announced new security and economic development assistance packages for the Philippines, including funding for security boat shelters and expanded internet access in impoverished southern provinces previously affected by separatist conflicts.

This growing security partnership occurs against a backdrop of heightened regional tensions. Chinese coast guard and naval vessels have increasingly engaged in hostile encounters with Philippine ships in disputed waters since President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. took office in 2022, marking a departure from his predecessor’s more China-friendly approach. Similar tensions persist in the East China Sea where China regularly challenges Japanese control over disputed islands.

The United States, which maintains treaty alliances with both Japan and the Philippines, has repeatedly expressed concern over China’s escalating actions in these contested maritime territories.

In a significant immigration policy shift, the Trump administration declared on Wednesday a comprehensive suspension of immigrant visa issuances for nationals from 75 countries, effective January 21. The State Department announced the measure via social media, justifying it as necessary to prevent migrants from allegedly exploiting U.S. welfare systems.

The policy specifically targets countries including Brazil, Iran, Russia, Somalia, Haiti, and Eritrea, which administration officials claim produce immigrants who ‘often become public charges.’ The suspension will remain indefinitely until the United States can implement mechanisms to ensure new immigrants won’t ‘extract wealth from the American people,’ according to the official statement.

While non-immigrant, business, and tourist visas remain unaffected, all incoming travelers will face intensified screening procedures. The affected nations span multiple continents, including Afghanistan, Cuba, Egypt, Iraq, Jamaica, Libya, Nigeria, Pakistan, Syria, and Yemen, among others.

This decision occurs amidst historically low immigration levels attributed to the administration’s aggressive enforcement measures, which have included revoking approximately 100,000 visas and deporting nearly half-million immigrants. The policy implementation raises concerns about its impact on international events, including the upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup, which the U.S. is scheduled to co-host with Canada and Mexico.

The administration has simultaneously terminated Temporary Protected Status for nationals from Afghanistan, Syria, Somalia, and Venezuela, while effectively dismantling the U.S. asylum program. Immigration enforcement tactics have intensified, featuring heavily armed officers conducting arrests that have generated widespread fear within immigrant communities, including among naturalized citizens.