Global Pulse

标签： Asia

亚洲

  • By wresting control of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has turned the tables on US

    By wresting control of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has turned the tables on US

    A decade-long strategic effort by Iran to construct a sophisticated ‘shadow fleet’ of oil tankers is now paying significant dividends, enabling the Islamic Republic to effectively bypass Western sanctions and maintain crucial oil exports amid heightened regional tensions. This parallel maritime network, operating outside the traditional Western financial and insurance systems, has become Tehran’s primary instrument for sustaining its economic lifeline while simultaneously challenging American hegemony in global trade governance.

    The strategic significance of this development has become particularly evident in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian-affiliated vessels continue transit operations while Western counterparts face effective exclusion from this critical chokepoint. According to maritime analytics firm Kpler, more than twenty long-range tankers have successfully navigated the passage since the conflict’s escalation, with at least six vessels operating under US sanctions or as part of Iran’s alternative fleet network.

    Iran’s export capabilities remain remarkably robust despite geopolitical pressures, with TankerTrackers.com data indicating sustained daily oil exports exceeding 1.02 million barrels—primarily destined for Chinese markets. This represents a strategic economic partnership that has proven resilient against Western pressure campaigns, with approximately 90% of Iranian crude now flowing to Chinese refiners through innovative barter arrangements and alternative currency mechanisms that circumvent the US dollar-dominated financial system.

    The emergence of this parallel trade architecture represents a fundamental challenge to traditional Western economic dominance. As noted by Nicholas Mulder, Cornell University historian and author of ‘The Economic Weapon,’ extensive sanctions regimes have inadvertently fostered the development of sophisticated evasion mechanisms that ultimately reduce targeted nations’ vulnerability to economic pressure.

    This realignment extends beyond bilateral Iran-China relations, with recent developments indicating broader geopolitical shifts. Pakistan’s state-owned National Shipping Corporation vessel recently transited the strait with its tracking systems active, followed by similar movements from Indian-flagged tankers—both nations having engaged in direct negotiations with Iranian authorities for safe passage guarantees.

    The situation mirrors earlier experimentation by Houthi forces in the Red Sea, though Iranian implementation demonstrates considerably greater sophistication in intelligence capabilities and targeting precision. Maritime security analysts observe that Iran has effectively weaponized maritime access, creating a selective transit system that disadvantages Western-affiliated shipping while accommodating vessels from allied nations.

    The Trump administration’s response has appeared inconsistent, simultaneously demanding NATO assistance in securing the waterway while questioning America’s strategic interest in maintaining the transit corridor. This ambivalence reflects broader tensions in US foreign policy regarding energy security, alliance commitments, and the costs of maintaining global trade infrastructure.

    Geopolitical analyst Parag Khanna suggests these developments may signal emerging structural alternatives to US-led global governance, with regional powers increasingly crafting bottom-up solutions to maintain essential trade flows. The critical question remains whether new international coalitions can effectively provide the public good of secure maritime transit that Washington appears increasingly reluctant to underwrite.

  • Trump’s tariffs were supposed to help manufacturers. But instead, they’re hurting

    Trump’s tariffs were supposed to help manufacturers. But instead, they’re hurting

    WASHINGTON — The implementation of tariff-centered economic policies under the Trump administration has generated severe unintended consequences for American manufacturing enterprises, contrary to their intended protective purpose. Jay Allen, an Arkansas-based manufacturer and initial supporter of President Trump, exemplifies this troubling trend as his industrial equipment company faces substantial operational challenges directly attributable to import taxes.

    Allen Engineering Corp., which produces high-value concrete installation equipment, has experienced significant financial strain due to increased costs for essential imported components including engines, steel, gearboxes, and clutches. These tariff-induced cost escalations have forced the company to operate at a financial loss, reduce its workforce from 205 to 140 employees, and implement price increases of 8-10% on products that can reach $100,000 per unit.

    Statistical evidence indicates a broader national pattern contradicting the administration’s manufacturing objectives. During President Trump’s first full year back in office, approximately 98,000 manufacturing jobs were eliminated nationwide. Additionally, American companies are currently pursuing litigation against the administration seeking over $130 billion in tariff reimbursements, while federal deficit projections continue to rise.

    The White House maintains an optimistic outlook, with acting Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Pierre Yared emphasizing that factory revival requires time for production capabilities to develop fully. Administration officials point to elevated construction spending, increased factory construction hiring, and improved manufacturing productivity as indicators of eventual positive outcomes.

    However, economic analysts note that current construction growth primarily stems from initiatives launched during the Biden administration, particularly the CHIPS and Science Act which provided substantial subsidies for computer chip manufacturing facilities. According to Skanda Amarnath of Employ America, manufacturing construction spending has actually declined during Trump’s presidency, with current activity largely reflecting completion of projects initiated under previous policies.

    The fundamental uncertainty surrounding tariff implementation has created significant obstacles for manufacturing investment decisions. President Trump has enacted over 50 formal tariff actions alongside numerous informal threats, generating a complex landscape of announcements, reversals, exemptions, and legal challenges. This unpredictability discourages capital investment, as evidenced by Allen Engineering’s dilemma regarding a potential $20 million investment in domestic engine production amid uncertain trade policy longevity.

    Academic analysis from University of Toronto economist Joseph Steinberg suggests that even under optimal conditions, manufacturing employment would require approximately a decade to recover to pre-tariff levels. The current environment, characterized by policy instability and limited international cooperation, falls substantially short of this ideal scenario.

    Small and medium-sized manufacturers bear disproportionate burden from these policies, as they lack the lobbying influence and brand recognition of major corporations to mitigate tariff impacts. The Association of Equipment Manufacturers reports that America’s global manufacturing share significantly trails China’s, prompting calls for targeted tax credits and exemptions for components unavailable domestically at scale.

    Steel tariffs implemented in March and increased to 50% in June have particularly affected equipment manufacturers. Glen Calder of Calder Brothers, a South Carolina-based asphalt equipment manufacturer, reported immediate 25% price increases on domestic steel preceding formal tariff implementation, with sustained elevated pricing thereafter.

    Despite intended objectives to enhance competitiveness against China, U.S. manufacturing trade imbalances have worsened under current policies. China’s global trade surplus reached a record $1.2 trillion, highlighting structural limitations in the administration’s unilateral approach to trade policy. Lori Wallach of the American Economic Liberties Project notes that the avoidance of international cooperation and failure to build multinational coalitions has left American manufacturers at a competitive disadvantage in addressing fundamental issues like currency manipulation and subsidy enforcement.

  • Oil’s monopoly kaput, China to be top supplier of energy security

    Oil’s monopoly kaput, China to be top supplier of energy security

    The ongoing Middle East conflict has triggered a fundamental reassessment of global energy security, dramatically accelerating demand for China’s clean energy technologies. Contrary to earlier predictions that markets couldn’t absorb more Chinese exports, recent trade data reveals unprecedented growth in China’s energy technology shipments to global markets.

    China’s 2025 trade surplus expanded by 20% year-on-year to reach $1.2 trillion, defying existing tariff barriers. While exports to the United States declined by 20%, this was more than offset by substantial increases elsewhere. Exports to ASEAN nations surged by 13%, while African imports of Chinese goods jumped by 26%. Preliminary 2026 data shows even more dramatic growth, with dollar-denominated exports increasing by 22% in January-February, including extraordinary spikes of 27% to ASEAN countries and 47% to African markets.

    The Middle East conflict has fundamentally undermined confidence in oil-based energy systems, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz demonstrating the vulnerability of petroleum supply chains. This security crisis has created unprecedented demand for energy alternatives, positioning China—as the world’s dominant manufacturer of electric vehicles, batteries, solar panels, wind turbines, and nuclear technology—as the new guarantor of global energy security.

    Technological breakthroughs have been central to this transformation. Battery prices have plummeted 90% over the past 15 years, while solar panel costs have dropped 85% during the same period. Chinese manufacturers like BYD now offer electric vehicles with 1,000-kilometer ranges and 5-10 minute charging capabilities, while NIO has established comprehensive battery swapping networks across China.

    The economic advantages have become undeniable: electric vehicles are now 3-4 times more energy efficient than internal combustion engines and are priced at approximately half the cost of equivalent conventional vehicles in Western markets. With oil prices potentially doubling from pre-conflict levels, the financial case for transition has become overwhelming.

    This shift is reversing what economists call the Lucas Paradox—the historical anomaly where capital flowed from poorer to richer nations. China’s manufacturing output now exceeds that of the United States, European Union, India, Japan, United Kingdom, and Russia combined. The Belt and Road Initiative has further diversified China’s trade relationships, with 2025 engagement reaching $210 billion, nearly double previous records.

    The changing energy landscape represents more than market fluctuation—it signals a fundamental restructuring of global economic relationships and energy infrastructure, with developing nations positioned to benefit most significantly from reduced dependence on volatile hydrocarbon markets.

  • Japan records trade surplus as export growth balances out weak China demand

    Japan records trade surplus as export growth balances out weak China demand

    Japan’s economic landscape shifted in February as the nation posted a trade surplus of 57.3 billion yen ($360 million), marking a significant reversal from January’s 1.15 trillion yen deficit. According to preliminary data released by the Finance Ministry, exports expanded by a robust 4.2% year-on-year to 9.57 trillion yen, exceeding market expectations. This growth occurred alongside a 10.2% increase in imports, which reached 9.51 trillion yen.

    The recovery comes despite notable headwinds. Shipments to China, Japan’s largest trading partner, contracted by 10.9%, a decline partially attributed to the timing of the Lunar New Year holidays which dampened seasonal demand. Similarly, exports to the United States fell by 8%, pressured by a 15% tariff on Japanese automobiles imposed during the Trump administration that continues to burden automakers and supply chains.

    Geopolitical tensions and energy market volatility present ongoing challenges. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to conflict has driven Brent crude prices to approximately $100 per barrel, threatening to increase import costs for a nation that relies almost entirely on foreign oil. Conversely, the yen’s pronounced weakness—trading near 159 against the U.S. dollar compared to 150 a year ago—is providing an unexpected boost to export competitiveness.

    European markets emerged as a bright spot, with exports surging 17%, while shipments to the rest of Asia grew by 2.8%. Investors are now closely monitoring the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy decision and the potential outcomes from the anticipated summit between former President Trump and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, which could significantly influence future trade relations.

  • China ignores Trump’s Hormuz request as the Iran war deepens and his Beijing trip slips

    China ignores Trump’s Hormuz request as the Iran war deepens and his Beijing trip slips

    WASHINGTON — As the United States grapples with escalating tensions in the Middle East, China has adopted a strategically nuanced position regarding President Trump’s request for assistance in reopening the critical Strait of Hormuz. Analysts suggest Beijing is leveraging the geopolitical situation to its advantage while carefully managing diplomatic relations.

    The ongoing military engagement in Iran, now entering its third week, has created significant challenges for Washington as oil shipments through the vital waterway remain suspended. Despite appeals to allies, the U.S. finds itself increasingly isolated in its efforts to secure the strait, raising concerns that America’s principal strategic competitor stands to gain from the prolonged conflict.

    Ali Wyne, senior research and advocacy adviser for U.S.-China relations at the International Crisis Group, observed: “President Trump’s decision to postpone his long-awaited summit with President Xi Jinping reveals a fundamental miscalculation of Operation Epic Fury’s consequences. What was intended as a demonstration of U.S. power has instead exposed limitations in American influence, compelling Washington to seek assistance from its chief geopolitical rival in managing a self-created crisis.”

    The Chinese Foreign Ministry offered a deliberately ambiguous response regarding potential assistance with the strait, instead reiterating calls for “all parties to immediately cease military operations, prevent further escalation of tensions, and avoid additional disruption to the global economy from regional instability.”

    Beijing, which had never formally confirmed Trump’s planned March 31 state visit, has indicated willingness to reschedule through diplomatic channels while clarifying that the postponement was unrelated to the Hormuz request. This careful positioning allows China to maintain diplomatic decorum while advancing its strategic interests.

    According to Sun Yun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, “The Iranian request has diminished in urgency for Chinese leadership.” Meanwhile, Chinese diplomats have actively engaged with Middle Eastern nations, promising constructive involvement in tension reduction and peace restoration efforts. Beijing has already provided $200,000 in humanitarian aid to Iran through Red Cross and Red Crescent organizations, specifically designated for families affected by the bombing of Shajarah Tayyebeh elementary school in Minab.

    Brett Fetterly, managing principal in the China practice at The Asia Group, noted that the delay benefits both nations: “The current political climate makes international travel challenging for a commander-in-chief overseeing military operations. For China, additional time allows for better assessment of President Trump’s objectives and negotiation positions.”

    The strategic implications extend beyond immediate diplomacy. Military asset transfers from the Indo-Pacific region to the Middle East, including rapid-response units and anti-missile defense systems, have raised concerns about American distraction from its stated Asia-focused priorities.

    Zack Cooper, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute specializing in U.S. Asian strategy, warned: “Prolonged engagement in the Middle East, coupled with continued resource diversion from Asia, will exacerbate allies’ concerns about American distraction and capability limitations.” The postponed summit may also delay controversial arms sales to Taiwan, a persistently sensitive issue in U.S.-China relations.

    Cooper added: “Chinese leadership likely welcomes the visit’s postponement and the opportunity to benefit from renewed U.S. entanglement in Middle Eastern conflicts. Most Chinese analysts and officials believe America is undermining its own position, requiring Beijing merely to avoid interference in the process.”

  • Suspected stray bullet from military drill hits girl at playground

    Suspected stray bullet from military drill hits girl at playground

    South Korea’s military has implemented an immediate suspension of all small firearms training exercises following a disturbing incident in Daegu city, where a young elementary schoolgirl was struck by a suspected stray bullet while playing. The event occurred on Monday afternoon when the child was hit near the neck by an unidentified projectile, prompting emergency medical response and hospitalization. Authorities confirmed she has since been discharged from medical care.

    The incident took place at a playground situated approximately 1.5 kilometers (0.9 miles) from an active military shooting range that was conducting live-fire exercises at the time of the accident. The proximity has raised serious questions about safety protocols and bullet trajectory capabilities. According to officials, the range—constructed in 1995—is designed with protective barriers intended to contain bullets, suggesting potential system failures or extraordinary circumstances.

    This event echoes previous safety concerns regarding military exercises near civilian areas. In 2020, a golf caddy in South Jeolla province required emergency brain surgery after being struck by a stray bullet from a military range. More recently, in the previous year, the military suspended both live-fire drills and training flights when fighter jets accidentally dropped bombs on a village in Pocheon city, resulting in injuries to nearly 30 civilians.

    The current investigation aims to determine definitively whether the projectile that injured the child originated from the military exercise and to identify any potential lapses in safety measures. The suspension affects all drills involving rifles, handguns, and other small firearms across the country until further notice, highlighting the military’s cautious approach to civilian safety amidst training operations.

  • Netanyahu says Israel killed Iran’s top security official Larijani

    Netanyahu says Israel killed Iran’s top security official Larijani

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly claimed responsibility for the targeted killing of Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, during ongoing aerial operations against Iranian targets. The announcement marks a significant escalation in the already tense military confrontation between the two nations.

    Netanyahu revealed that Israeli fighter jets and drones are currently conducting extensive operations over Tehran and multiple other Iranian cities. In a statement delivered on Tuesday, the Israeli leader asserted that these military campaigns are strategically designed to create conditions conducive to potential “regime change” within Iran’s political establishment.

    The Israeli military operation, now in its eighteenth consecutive day, represents one of the most sustained aerial campaigns in recent Middle Eastern conflict history. According to Israeli Defense Forces statements, the wide-scale strikes have specifically targeted Iranian government infrastructure throughout Tehran, resulting in the additional death of Gholamreza Soleimani, commander of Iran’s Basij volunteer force.

    Netanyahu further disclosed extensive military coordination with the United States, noting prolonged discussions with President Donald Trump regarding cooperative strategic operations. “We will act both through indirect measures that place immense pressure on the Iranian regime and through direct actions. There are many more surprises,” Netanyahu stated, suggesting further escalations ahead.

    Iranian authorities have reported substantial casualties and widespread structural damage throughout affected regions, though official confirmation regarding Larijani’s status remains pending. In retaliation, Iranian forces have effectively halted commercial shipping through the critical Strait of Hormuz, drawing neighboring nations into the expanding regional conflict and potentially disrupting global energy supplies.

    The absence of immediate Iranian response to Israel’s specific claims regarding Larijani’s death creates uncertainty about the complete veracity of Netanyahu’s assertions, though the broader context of sustained military engagement remains undisputed.

  • Ali Larijani: What does the death of philosopher security chief mean for Iran?

    Ali Larijani: What does the death of philosopher security chief mean for Iran?

    The assassination of Ali Larijani, a multifaceted Iranian political figure reportedly killed in an Israeli operation, has removed one of Tehran’s most versatile strategists from its complex power structure. The 67-year-old official possessed rare credentials spanning military, legislative, and cultural spheres, making him a unique entity within Iran’s leadership ecosystem.

    Larijani’s career exemplified the intricate nature of Iranian governance. A veteran of the Iran-Iraq War who rose to brigadier general rank in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), he simultaneously cultivated intellectual pursuits as the author of six philosophy books focused on Immanuel Kant’s scientific and mathematical theories. His administrative portfolio included leadership of Iran’s state broadcaster (IRIB), parliamentary speakership, and two separate tenures heading the Supreme National Security Council.

    Analysts characterize Larijani as a pragmatic operator who maintained connections across Iran’s political spectrum. Sina Toossi, an Iran specialist, noted his unique capacity to “build consensus across factions” and translate strategic vision into coordinated policy. This pragmatism extended to international engagement, with American journalist Barbara Slavin identifying him as a figure with whom the United States had previously maintained backchannel communications during his tenure as nuclear program negotiator.

    Despite his consensus-oriented approach, Larijani demonstrated capability for hardline rhetoric and actions. He issued stark warnings to the Trump administration during regional tensions and was implicated in the brutal suppression of anti-government protests in January.

    Experts suggest his elimination will not critically destabilize Iran’s institutionalized system but may accelerate its ideological hardening. Former U.S. official Alan Eyre predicts replacement by “younger, more hardline candidates,” potentially including current deputy security chief Saeed Jalili. The assassination reportedly eliminates a key figure who had worked with former President Rouhani to oppose the succession of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader.

    The long-term consequence, analysts suggest, is not merely personnel change but institutional shift, with enhanced influence for the IRGC and the Supreme Leader’s office (Bayt-e Rahbari) in determining Iran’s future trajectory.

  • India’s cheap weight-loss drugs could reshape global obesity fight

    India’s cheap weight-loss drugs could reshape global obesity fight

    India stands at the precipice of a pharmaceutical transformation as the patent protection for semaglutide—the active compound in Novo Nordisk’s acclaimed weight-loss medications Wegovy and Ozempic—expires this week. This development paves the way for domestic drug manufacturers to introduce affordable generic alternatives, potentially reducing treatment costs by more than half and dramatically expanding accessibility across the nation.

    The expiration has triggered preparations among India’s leading pharmaceutical firms, including Cipla, Sun Pharma, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, and several others, to launch approximately 50 branded generic versions within months. Current pricing structures place monthly treatment between 8,800-16,000 rupees ($95-$173), but industry analysts project generics could slash this to 3,000-5,000 rupees ($36-54) per month.

    This anticipated price reduction represents a potential watershed moment for public health in a country grappling with significant obesity challenges. India currently hosts over 77 million type-2 diabetes patients and one of the world’s largest overweight adult populations. The drugs, classified as GLP-1 receptor agonists, function by mimicking appetite-regulating hormones, delaying stomach emptying and promoting sustained fullness.

    Medical professionals are cautiously optimistic about the expanded treatment possibilities. Dr. Muffazal Lakdawala, a Mumbai bariatric surgeon, acknowledges that increased affordability could benefit millions previously excluded from treatment due to cost barriers. However, he and other physicians emphasize the critical need for stringent quality control and regulatory oversight to ensure drug safety and efficacy.

    The Indian pharmaceutical industry, valued at approximately $60 billion and expected to double by 2030, has built its global reputation on manufacturing affordable generics. The country currently supplies roughly 20% of global generic medicines, meeting significant portions of pharmaceutical demand across Africa, the United States, and the United Kingdom.

    Beyond domestic implications, this development carries substantial export potential. Namit Joshi, chairman of India’s Pharmaceuticals Export Promotion Council, projects the U.S. market alone could reach $10 billion within years as obesity rates continue driving demand.

    Medical experts simultaneously caution against unrealistic expectations and potential misuse. Side effects including nausea, digestive issues, and rare complications like pancreatitis require careful management. Physicians stress that these medications should complement—not replace—lifestyle modifications including dietary improvements and exercise regimens.

    India’s drug regulator has already issued advisories warning against direct-to-consumer promotion of prescription weight-loss drugs, emphasizing that they should only be used under proper medical supervision. As the market prepares for transformation, the coming months will test India’s ability to balance unprecedented accessibility with responsible regulation.

  • Israel ‘assessed Iranians would be slaughtered’ if they rise up against Islamic Republic

    Israel ‘assessed Iranians would be slaughtered’ if they rise up against Islamic Republic

    A confidential diplomatic cable reveals a stark divergence between Israel’s public stance and its private assessment regarding Iran’s internal stability. According to the document, reviewed by The Washington Post, senior Israeli officials have privately conceded to their U.S. counterparts that any popular uprising against the Islamic Republic would be met with overwhelming and brutal force by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), resulting in a probable slaughter of protesters. This private evaluation stands in direct contradiction to repeated public exhortations by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the Iranian people to rise up against their government.

    The cable details meetings held this week between American officials and high-level members of Israel’s National Security Council, Ministry of Defence, and Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In these discussions, Israeli representatives admitted that the IRGC maintains a definitive ‘upper hand’ and that the state apparatus shows no signs of cracking, demonstrating a willingness to ‘fight to the end.’ Officials concluded that any attempt by anti-government activists to seize control would likely end in disaster.

    This assessment is further bolstered by observations of Iran’s continued military capabilities, including its proven ability to launch ballistic missiles and drones ‘everywhere they want to,’ which is cited as proof of the state’s resilience. The officials also noted that despite rumors of his incapacitation, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei remains firmly in charge and is considered ‘more aligned’ with the hardline IRGC than his predecessor.

    The failure of the exiled opposition to form a coherent front or project significant influence inside Iran has been another critical factor. Interviews with Iranians inside the country by Middle East Eye reveal a growing disillusionment with opposition figures like monarchist leader Reza Pahlavi. A recent call by Pahlavi for public mobilization during a traditional Persian celebration was met with little visible response, amid widespread fear and trauma from the ongoing conflict and a rising civilian death toll. Many citizens expressed anger at being asked to celebrate while living under the constant threat of airstrikes and violence, highlighting a significant gap between the diaspora’s calls to action and the grim reality on the ground.