标签： Asia

The United States recently convened an international summit focused on critical minerals, aiming to counter China’s overwhelming dominance in global supply chains for smartphones, weapons systems, lithium-ion batteries, and electric vehicles. The gathering brought together representatives from key nations including Argentina, Australia, Bolivia, Canada, Chile, Democratic Republic of Congo, India, Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom, alongside the European Union.

This initiative represents a significant shift in international trade dynamics that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney characterized as a fundamental ‘rupture’ to the rules-based global order. Despite ambitious American efforts to diminish China’s control over critical mineral production, the reality presents formidable challenges due to deeply entrenched Chinese investments and established production networks.

According to International Energy Agency data, China currently commands more than 80% of global battery production, with this figure rising to 90% for grid-scale batteries essential for storing renewable energy from wind and solar sources. Global battery sales have expanded sixfold since 2020, while manufacturing of grid-scale battery systems has grown twentyfold during the same period, largely driven by China’s cost-effective manufacturing model.

The US has intensified efforts to reduce Chinese influence in South America, which contains over 50% of the world’s known lithium deposits. Recent moves include the US government acquiring a 5% stake in Canada-based Lithium Americas in 2025, followed by another 10% acquisition in USA Rare Earth in February. The White House has also leveraged tariff threats and a $20 billion bailout package to negotiate new trade terms with Argentina, while the Inter-American Development Bank committed $140 million to enhance critical mineral production capacity across Latin America.

However, disengaging China from established production networks raises substantial questions about the strategic wisdom of disrupting a system that produces 80-90% of the world’s lithium-ion batteries. While the US pursues an ‘America first’ policy of onshoring production, China has strategically employed joint ventures and public-private partnerships to secure mineral access while offshoring the more environmentally challenging aspects of production.

Chinese company Ganfeng Lithium has maintained operations in Argentina for approximately a decade and continues expanding through joint ventures with Canadian firm Lithium Americas in the Pozuelos, Pastos Grandes, and Cauchari-Olaroz salt flats. The majority of Ganfeng’s production supplies battery and EV manufacturing hubs in China and Southeast Asia.

The political landscape across South America introduces additional complexity. Recent electoral victories by right-wing leaders in Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile potentially favor US interests, particularly in Argentina where President Javier Milei has cultivated strong ties with the Trump administration. However, Chile’s situation remains less certain due to the state’s dominant role in copper markets, domestic debates about lithium nationalization, and enduring Chinese diplomatic influence.

Major questions persist regarding American companies’ capacity and willingness to assume China’s role in global lithium-ion battery production. US-based Albemarle Corporation, while one of the world’s largest lithium companies, remains publicly traded with diverse international investors. Beyond South America, global lithium production continues to be dominated by American, Chinese, and Australian firms, nearly all maintaining joint ventures with Chinese companies like Tianqi and Ganfeng.

The North American economy lacks both the capacity and wage competitiveness to replace China’s position in producing and processing critical minerals for batteries, energy storage systems, and electric vehicles. Developing a supply chain capable of outperforming China’s established network appears improbable given current economic and geopolitical realities.

Beijing witnessed the commencement of the fourth session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) on Wednesday, marking the beginning of China’s pivotal annual political gatherings. The event, held at the Great Hall of the People, brought together approximately 2,100 advisory members from diverse sectors across the nation.

President Xi Jinping, serving concurrently as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and Chairman of the Central Military Commission, attended the opening ceremony alongside other senior leadership figures. The assembly focused primarily on strategizing for the successful implementation of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), which represents a crucial phase in the nation’s modernization journey.

CPPCC National Committee Chairman Wang Huning presented the standing committee’s work report, highlighting China’s remarkable achievements in concluding the 14th Five-Year Plan period despite complex global and domestic challenges. The report documented substantial progress across economic, technological, and defense sectors, with advisory members contributing significantly through 98 consultative activities and 5,992 formal proposals—of which 99.9% received governmental responses.

The political advisory body announced plans to implement a specialized democratic supervision framework specifically designed to monitor the execution of the forthcoming five-year plan. Additionally, the CPPCC will organize commemorative events honoring the 160th anniversary of Sun Yat-sen’s birth while enhancing international exchanges to better articulate China’s democratic narrative.

Prominent committee members provided insights regarding China’s development trajectory. Jiang Ying, Chairwoman of Deloitte China, emphasized China’s commitment to high-level opening-up policies that create new opportunities for global enterprises, particularly in digital economy and green transformation sectors. She highlighted cross-border data flow management as a critical area requiring regulatory refinement.

Geely Holding Group Chairman Li Shufu identified electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics as transformative industries driving social progress, noting the automotive sector’s evolution from intense competition toward technology-driven sustainable growth. Meanwhile, Hong Kong representative Clarence Ling Chun-kit stressed the importance of strengthening cross-Strait youth exchanges and scientific collaboration in artificial intelligence during the upcoming planning period.

A significant policy division has emerged within the highest echelons of the US government regarding military strategy toward Iran, with Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio engaged in intense disagreements over potential ground troop deployment. According to three former US officials and a senior regional official familiar with the matter, the cabinet members have been described as “at each other’s throats” regarding whether to accede to Israel’s request for American boots on the ground.

Secretary Hegseth, known for his combative media style from his Fox News background, has expressed support for more direct military intervention. In contrast, Secretary Rubio has demonstrated considerable caution about entangling the United States in another prolonged Middle Eastern conflict. This fundamental disagreement reflects broader tensions within the administration about the scope and objectives of military engagement with Iran.

The current US approach has primarily relied on aerial bombardment and standoff strikes utilizing cruise and ballistic missiles. However, recent reporting indicates an expansion of covert operations, with CNN revealing that the CIA has initiated training and arms provision to Kurdish fighters operating within Iranian territory. According to one Gulf official, discussions have even included deploying special operations teams to target high-ranking Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officials and nuclear program personnel.

The philosophical divide between the officials extends to their public communication strategies. When questioned about potential troop deployments, Hegseth responded with characteristic defiance: “Why in the world would we tell you, the enemy, anybody, what we will or will not do in pursuit of an objective.” Meanwhile, Rubio has shown greater sensitivity to domestic opposition against placing American soldiers in harm’s way.

Complicating matters further, military personnel have reportedly expressed discomfort with certain commanders framing the conflict in religious terms, describing it as “part of God’s plan” that would facilitate the return of Jesus Christ. Hegseth, who possesses a Crusader cross tattoo on his chest and identifies as an ultra-conservative Christian, has not publicly addressed these concerns.

President Trump has maintained strategic ambiguity regarding ground operations, telling The New York Post: “I don’t have the yips with respect to boots on the ground – like every president says, ‘There will be no boots on the ground.’ I don’t say it. I say ‘probably don’t need them,’ [or] ‘if they were necessary’.”

The administration’s stated objectives have similarly fluctuated between destroying Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities and nuclear program to openly advocating for regime change. This week, Rubio initially suggested military action was precipitated by intelligence suggesting an imminent Israeli attack on Iran, though he subsequently retracted this explanation.

The human cost of the conflict continues to mount, with at least six US service members confirmed killed. During a recent press briefing, Hegseth lamented that military achievements were being overshadowed by combat casualties: “We’ve taken control of Iran’s airspace and waterways without boots on the ground. We control their fate. But when a few drones get through or tragic things happen, it’s front-page news.”

CANBERRA, Australia – In a significant bilateral meeting held in Australia’s capital, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese presented a unified front on the escalating Iranian conflict, advocating for immediate de-escalation while maintaining an unequivocal stance against Iranian nuclear proliferation.

The high-level discussions occurred amidst heightened global tensions following recent military developments, including the sinking of an Iranian warship by a U.S. submarine in the Indian Ocean and NATO’s interception of an Iranian ballistic missile near Turkish airspace.

Prime Minister Carney emphasized the necessity of broadening diplomatic efforts beyond direct combatants. “We seek a comprehensive de-escalation involving a wider coalition of nations,” Carney stated during a joint press conference. “However, this cannot be achieved without permanently eliminating Iran’s capacity to develop nuclear weapons and export terrorism. These outcomes must be fundamental to any resolution.”

Carney specifically highlighted the potential role of the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council, praising their “remarkable restraint” amid regional instability and suggesting their inclusion in peace-building initiatives.

Prime Minister Albanese echoed these sentiments, condemning Iran’s expanding military operations. “The international community demands immediate de-escalation and cessation of Iran’s cross-border attacks,” Albanese asserted. “We’ve witnessed unacceptable aggression toward Gulf states not involved in hostilities, including targeting of civilian and tourist areas. The permanent prevention of Iranian nuclear weapons capability remains paramount.”

When questioned about potential Canadian military involvement, Carney declined to categorically exclude such possibilities, noting the conflict’s potential for rapid expansion. “This addresses a fundamental hypothetical in a rapidly evolving situation,” he responded. “While we cannot absolutely rule out participation, any engagement would align with our strategic alliances and national interests.”

The Canberra meeting formed part of Carney’s three-nation trade-focused tour, commencing in India and proceeding to Japan following his address to the Australian Parliament.