标签： Africa

A comprehensive survey by Standard Bank reveals a significant reorientation in African trade patterns, with businesses increasingly favoring China and Asian markets over traditional Western partners. The Africa Trade Barometer, which surveyed over 2,000 companies across 10 African nations representing 68% of sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP, indicates a pronounced pivot toward Eastern economic alliances.

The data demonstrates that 35% of African enterprises now prefer Asia as their primary trading partner, with China maintaining its dominant position as the leading source of inputs for 67% of respondents. This preference is attributed to competitive pricing, extensive product variety, and exceptional supplier responsiveness from Chinese partners.

Conversely, North America ranked as the least preferred trading partner, selected by merely 4% of businesses. Philip Myburgh, Head of Trade at Standard Bank’s business and commercial banking unit, identified high shipping costs and recent policy shifts as contributing factors to this decline. The expiration of the US African Growth and Opportunity Act in September 2025, coupled with new tariffs ranging from 10% to 30%, has accelerated this trade diversion.

The research anticipates continued expansion of China-Africa trade relations, particularly as African economies depend on Chinese inputs to drive industrialization efforts. This outlook is strengthened by China’s recent announcement of implementing zero tariffs on goods from 53 African countries with diplomatic relations, effective May 1, 2026.

Grace Mutembo, Zambia’s High Commissioner to South Africa, welcomed the tariff elimination as a transformative opportunity for African exporters. Zambia, which maintains longstanding economic ties with China including infrastructure projects like the Tanzania-Zambia Railway refurbishment, seeks to increase value addition in agriculture and mining before exporting to Chinese markets.

Experts emphasize that African exporters must enhance production capacity and comply with technical requirements—including health standards, supply chain logistics, and financial arrangements—to fully capitalize on Chinese market access. Sandile Swana, former business lecturer at the University of the Witwatersrand, stressed the importance of understanding these comprehensive market requirements for successful trade engagement.

NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — The escalating military confrontation with Iran has unleashed a dramatic surge in global oil prices, creating severe economic headwinds for African nations. With the continent relying heavily on imported petroleum products, economists warn of impending fuel cost increases, accelerating inflation, and renewed currency instability across multiple markets.

Energy analysts emphasize Africa’s particular vulnerability to supply chain disruptions originating in the Middle East, a region responsible for substantial portions of global crude flows. “Africa’s status as a net importer of oil products leaves it exceptionally exposed to geopolitical shocks of this nature,” explained Nick Hedley, an energy transition research analyst at Zero Carbon Analytics.

The current crisis mirrors patterns observed following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when spiking crude prices combined with weakening currencies drove transport fuel costs up by more than 25% in South Africa within six months. The strategic significance of the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow shipping corridor handling approximately one-fifth of global crude shipments—adds further sensitivity to oil market dynamics.

Impact distribution across Africa appears uneven. While Kenya and Uganda report stable supplies despite market turbulence, major crude producers like Nigeria and Ghana face complex economic equations. Though these nations export crude oil, they import most refined petroleum products, potentially limiting benefits from higher global prices.

Brendon Verster, senior economist at Oxford Economics, identified the dual threat: “The immediate risks stem primarily from climbing oil prices and depreciating exchange rates as investors shift capital toward safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar.”

Sustained price elevation could generate revenue windfalls for Africa’s major oil exporters. Nigeria, which exports approximately 1.5 million barrels daily, has structured its medium-term fiscal framework around prices between $64 and $66 per barrel through 2028. Current prices exceeding $100 per barrel—if maintained—would significantly boost revenues for Angola, Algeria, and Libya.

For ordinary citizens, however, the immediate effect translates to heightened living costs. “This represents a serious concern,” Hedley noted, emphasizing that most food and goods across Africa travel by road. “Increased fuel expenses rapidly propagate into broader inflation and diminish household purchasing power.”

The crisis particularly threatens nations operating under International Monetary Fund programs, as energy import bills drain scarce foreign exchange reserves. Analysts identify Sudan, The Gambia, Central African Republic, Lesotho, and Zimbabwe among the most vulnerable economies.

Longer-term perspectives suggest the crisis may accelerate calls for energy diversification. Kennedy Mbeva, research associate at the University of Cambridge’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, stated: “It demonstrates strategic imperative for African nations to ensure long-term energy security and sovereignty.” Achieving this balance will require navigating short-term fiscal pressures while making sustained investments in clean energy and green industrialization.

A profound crisis is unfolding across West Africa’s cocoa belt, where farmers who produce the world’s chocolate supply face financial devastation despite global chocolate price increases. The paradoxical situation has left hundreds of thousands of agricultural workers in Ghana and Ivory Coast without payment for months, creating widespread economic hardship in rural communities.

The core of the problem stems from a dramatic market reversal. Following record-high cocoa prices in 2024, global prices have since collapsed due to increased worldwide production coinciding with reduced demand. Chocolate manufacturers responded to previous price spikes by reducing bar sizes and cocoa content, ultimately decreasing their need for raw beans.

In both Ghana and Ivory Coast, state regulatory bodies set fixed annual prices for cocoa farmers. Ghana’s Cocoa Board (Cocobod) established a rate of $5,300 per tonne last October, while Ivory Coast’s Coffee and Cocoa Council implemented similar guaranteed pricing. These fixed rates now substantially exceed current global market prices by approximately 40%, creating an unsustainable economic gap.

The human impact has been severe. Akosua Frimpong, a 52-year-old Ghanaian widow, recounted how she couldn’t afford medical treatment for her husband before his death. ‘The money I was anticipating from my cocoa bean sales is currently inaccessible. I’m a widow now and I don’t have anyone to support me,’ she told BBC reporters.

Ghana’s Cocobod has accumulated approximately $3 billion in debt attempting to bridge the price gap, implementing executive pay cuts of 20% for management and 10% for senior staff. The board has now slashed guaranteed prices to around $3,500 per tonne, though this remains above market rates.

In Ivory Coast, warehouses in towns like Bangolo overflow with unsold cocoa sacks. Bahily Bakouli Issiaca, a cooperative member, reported trucks loaded with cocoa waiting unsold for nearly three weeks. The government recently announced plans to cut farmer payments by half to stimulate sales.

The crisis affects approximately 800,000 cocoa farmers directly, with ripple effects throughout rural economies. Farmers like Robert Addae, with 14 years of experience, note that production costs remain unchanged despite price reductions. ‘The prices of farm inputs and implements remain the same, the cost of labour has not reduced, so the cut in cocoa prices will adversely affect us,’ he explained.

With cocoa contributing 7% of Ghana’s GDP and 15% of foreign exchange earnings, the sector’s health directly impacts national economies. Both governments are implementing measures including increased domestic processing to capture more value from their cocoa industries.