标签： Africa

Bulgaria has officially transitioned to the euro, becoming the 21st member of the eurozone nearly two decades after joining the European Union. The historic move, effective January 1, 2026, marks a significant milestone for the Balkan nation of 6.4 million people—the EU’s poorest member state.

The adoption ceremony witnessed the projection of Bulgarian euro coins onto the central bank’s building at midnight, symbolically retiring the lev currency that had been in circulation since the 19th century. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde welcomed Bulgaria into the “euro family,” describing the currency as a “powerful symbol” of European unity and collective strength.

Despite governmental enthusiasm for the transition, which successive administrations have promoted as an economic catalyst and safeguard against Russian influence, the Bulgarian public remains deeply divided. Nearly half the population opposes the switch, according to recent Eurobarometer surveys, primarily fearing inflationary pressures and price increases that could exacerbate existing economic challenges.

The political backdrop adds complexity to the transition, with the country experiencing its eighth election in five years following anti-corruption protests that ousted a conservative-led government in mid-December. President Rumen Radev acknowledged the achievement as Bulgaria’s “final step” in EU integration while criticizing the lack of public consultation through referendum, highlighting the “deep divide between the political class and the people.”

Practical challenges have emerged during the transition, including reports of insufficient euro currency availability and concerns among business owners about inadequate preparation. The National Statistical Institute reports food prices rose 5% year-on-year in November—more than double the eurozone average—fueling public anxiety about further cost-of-living increases.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized the benefits of euro adoption, noting it would “facilitate trade, enhance market transparency and competitiveness, and simplify travel and living abroad.” The expansion brings the total number of Europeans using the euro to over 350 million, strengthening the currency’s global position.

In a comprehensive 2026 commodities outlook, Goldman Sachs has presented a strikingly divergent forecast for global markets, advocating a strategic pivot toward precious metals while cautioning against energy sector investments. The analysis, spearheaded by lead strategist Daan Struyven, identifies two powerful macroeconomic forces—dubbed the ‘Power Race’ and ‘Supply Waves’—as primary drivers reshaping commodity landscapes.

The ‘Power Race’ encapsulates the intensifying technological and geopolitical competition between major powers, particularly the United States and China, across artificial intelligence development, energy security initiatives, and military modernization programs. This competition generates substantial demand for strategic metals essential for data center construction, electrical grid modernization, and defense applications. Conversely, ‘Supply Waves’ describes the phenomenon of sustained energy investment finally delivering substantial new production volumes to markets experiencing declining demand fundamentals.

Goldman’s analysis positions gold as its premier commodity investment for 2026, projecting prices could reach $4,900 per ounce by December 2026. This bullish outlook stems primarily from unprecedented central bank acquisition, with institutions expected to purchase approximately 70 tons monthly—quadruple pre-2022 acquisition rates. Notably, this institutional demand occurs alongside remarkably limited retail participation, with gold ETFs representing merely 0.17% of U.S. private portfolio assets, suggesting significant room for price appreciation.

The energy sector presents a contrasting picture. Goldman anticipates Brent crude averaging $56 per barrel in 2026, with West Texas Intermediate around $52—substantially below current spot prices. This bearish outlook reflects resilient U.S. production, expanding non-OPEC output, and inventory builds that likely will cap prices absent major geopolitical disruptions or substantial OPEC+ intervention.

Copper occupies an intermediate position, expected to consolidate around $11,400 per ton throughout 2026 following previous gains. Goldman maintains long-term confidence in copper driven by ongoing electrification trends and infrastructure development, with potential Chinese stockpiling initiatives providing additional price support.

Battery metals face particular challenges, with lithium and nickel prices projected to decline further due to substantial Chinese investment in overseas production capacity. Goldman anticipates lithium prices falling an additional 25% by late 2026 as supply expansion outpaces electric vehicle demand growth.

Natural gas markets demonstrate regional variations within broader trends. While global LNG markets face potential oversupply with capacity increasing approximately 50% by 2030, the United States may experience price support as growing export volumes tighten domestic supply balances.

The report concludes that commodities have entered a period of structural divergence, where electricity, data infrastructure, and security considerations have become the new determinants of value, fundamentally decoupling traditional relationships between energy and metals markets.

Wall Street concluded 2025 with remarkable gains largely fueled by an artificial intelligence investment frenzy, though the path was marked by significant volatility and underlying economic concerns. The S&P 500 finished the year with a 16.4% increase, primarily driven by massive investments in AI infrastructure and technology.