博客

  • 19th-century slave empire plan resonates with Trump foreign policy

    19th-century slave empire plan resonates with Trump foreign policy

    As President Donald Trump completes his second year in office, his unconventional foreign policy approach has drawn striking parallels to a largely forgotten 19th century expansionist movement. The administration’s assertive stance toward neighboring nations—including controversial claims on Greenland, interventions in Venezuela, and coercive rhetoric toward Mexico and Cuba—resonates with the ambitions of the Knights of the Golden Circle, a secret society that flourished during the 1850s.

    Founded in 1854 by Virginia physician George W.L. Bickley, the Knights envisioned creating a slaveholding empire encompassing the southern United States, Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, and northern South America. This ‘Golden Circle’ would center its operations in Havana and control global production of lucrative cash crops through enslaved labor. Historical records suggest the organization attracted prominent figures including Confederate general Nathan Bedford Forrest and Abraham Lincoln’s assassin, John Wilkes Booth.

    The Knights initially sought to annex territories to strengthen slavery’s political power before pivoting to support Southern secession as tensions escalated. Their ideology combined territorial expansion with white supremacist beliefs, viewing hemispheric dominance as America’s ‘manifest destiny.’

    Contemporary analysts note that Trump’s ‘America First’ approach—particularly his personalized ‘Donroe Doctrine’—similarly treats neighboring nations as strategic assets rather than sovereign equals. His administration’s pressure campaigns against Cuba, Venezuela, and Mexico reflect a modern iteration of hemispheric control ambitions, albeit through economic coercion and political influence rather than direct territorial conquest.

    What distinguishes Trump’s approach is its transactional rhetoric and dismissal of multilateral norms. Unlike Cold War-era interventions framed in ideological terms, current policy emphasizes tangible gains and unilateral action. This modern manifestation of expansionist thinking demonstrates how historical patterns of American imperialism have adapted to contemporary political contexts while maintaining core assumptions about geographic entitlement and hemispheric dominance.

  • Trump removes tariffs threat, agrees to ‘framework’ for Greenland deal

    Trump removes tariffs threat, agrees to ‘framework’ for Greenland deal

    In a significant diplomatic development, former U.S. President Donald Trump has retracted his threat to impose tariffs on several nations regarding their positions on Greenland. The announcement came following high-level discussions with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte during the World Economic Forum in Davos.

    Trump revealed through his Truth Social platform that the two parties have established a preliminary framework agreement concerning Greenland’s future trajectory. While specific details of the arrangement remain undisclosed, the understanding proved sufficient for Trump to cancel previously scheduled tariffs that were set to take effect on February 1st.

    The threatened tariffs had created tension among NATO allies, with several member nations facing potential economic repercussions for their stance on Greenland’s development and international status. The breakthrough suggests a compromise has been reached that addresses Trump’s concerns about the strategic Arctic territory while maintaining alliance cohesion.

    This development represents a notable shift in Trump’s approach to international diplomacy, moving from economic coercion to negotiated settlement through established multilateral channels. The framework agreement marks a temporary resolution to what had become a contentious issue in transatlantic relations, though the specific terms and implementation details await further clarification.

  • Australian Open 2026: American Ben Shelton made light work of local Dane Sweeny

    Australian Open 2026: American Ben Shelton made light work of local Dane Sweeny

    American tennis sensation Ben Shelton delivered a commanding performance on Thursday, extinguishing Australian hopes at Melbourne Park with a decisive straight-sets victory over local qualifier Dane Sweeny. The eighth-ranked Shelton demonstrated why he’s considered a serious title contender with a masterclass in serving precision, overwhelming his opponent 6-3, 6-2, 6-2 in just over an hour of play.

    The left-handed powerhouse unleashed 19 aces throughout the match, maintaining relentless pressure that prevented Sweeny from earning even a single break point opportunity. While the Australian crowd briefly rallied behind Sweeny when he captured the opening game of the third set, this momentary success only seemed to intensify Shelton’s focus as he promptly reclaimed control of the contest.

    This defeat marked a disappointing day for Australian tennis, coming shortly after compatriot Rinky Hijikata also exited the tournament. Hijikata managed to claim a set against 31st-seeded Valentin Vacherot of Monaco but ultimately fell 6-1, 6-3, 4-6, 6-2. Both Australian players found themselves outserved by higher-ranked opponents, highlighting the gap between emerging local talent and established international competitors.

    Shelton now advances to the third round where he’ll face Vacherot, setting up an intriguing matchup between two rising stars in men’s tennis. The American’s dominant performance signals his strong form early in the tournament and establishes him as a player capable of challenging the established hierarchy in men’s tennis.

  • Keys into Melbourne third round with Sinner, Djokovic primed

    Keys into Melbourne third round with Sinner, Djokovic primed

    Defending Australian Open champions Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic are poised for their second-round matches following a day of dramatic contests at Melbourne Park. American Madison Keys, the reigning women’s finalist, navigated a turbulent performance to secure her place in the third round with a 6-1, 7-5 victory over compatriot Ashlyn Krueger.

    Keys demonstrated dominant form in the opening set, concluding it within 23 minutes on John Cain Arena. However, the match dynamics shifted dramatically in the second set as Krueger mounted a formidable challenge, pushing Keys to rally from a 2-5 deficit. The 29-year-old acknowledged her opponent’s resilience, stating, ‘I fully expected her to raise her level and she did. It got away from me a bit.’

    In other women’s draw action, sixth seed Jessica Pegula delivered a commanding performance with a 6-0, 6-2 win against McCartney Kessler. Meanwhile, tournament witnessed a significant upset as Spain’s 25th seed Paula Badosa fell to Russia’s 101st-ranked Oksana Selekhmeteva in straight sets.

    The men’s competition features defending champion Jannik Sinner preparing to face Australian James Duckworth after his first-round match concluded prematurely when French opponent Hugo Gaston retired with Sinner leading 6-2, 6-1. Novak Djokovic, pursuing an unprecedented 25th Grand Slam title, commenced his campaign with a dominant 6-3, 6-2, 6-2 victory over Spain’s Pedro Martinez – marking his 100th Australian Open win.

    The Serbian legend, currently tied with Margaret Court for most major titles, expressed satisfaction with his performance: ‘I couldn’t ask for more. Obviously a great serving performance.’ Djokovic now prepares to face Italy’s Francesco Maestrelli as he continues his historic quest.

    Other notable contenders advancing include Czech Republic’s Jakub Mensik and Russia’s Karen Khachanov, while the tournament continues with highly anticipated matches featuring Iga Swiatek, Amanda Anisimova, and Elena Rybakina.

  • Oil faces price ceiling as supply surge outpaces demand

    Oil faces price ceiling as supply surge outpaces demand

    A substantial supply surplus is poised to dominate global oil markets throughout 2026, effectively imposing a ceiling on prices despite ongoing geopolitical instability, according to a definitive assessment by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The agency projects that worldwide oil supply will expand by approximately 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, reaching a staggering 108.7 million bpd. This follows an even larger increase of around 3 million bpd recorded in 2025.

    This robust production growth, originating predominantly from non-OPEC+ nations including the United States, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina, is dramatically outpacing the modest rise in global consumption. The IEA forecasts demand growth of merely 930,000 bpd for 2026, driven almost entirely by emerging economies outside the OECD. This supply-demand imbalance, nearly a threefold difference, has created a significant market buffer that is expected to confine benchmark crude prices within a volatile $60 to $70 per barrel range, suppressing any sustained price rallies.

    The physical evidence of this glut is unmistakable. Global observed inventories swelled by approximately 470 million barrels throughout 2025, equating to a build of nearly 1.3 million bpd. A sharp acceleration occurred in November alone, with stocks jumping over 75 million barrels, primarily in onshore crude storage. Preliminary data indicates this trend continued into December. Consequently, OECD industry stockpiles have climbed to 2.84 billion barrels, aligning with the five-year average but standing markedly higher than levels seen a year prior.

    Refining activity surged late in the previous year, with global crude throughputs rising by about 2 million bpd in December to 85.7 million bpd ahead of planned seasonal maintenance. For 2026, refinery runs are forecast to average 84.6 million bpd. However, refining margins weakened considerably toward the end of 2025, especially in Europe, where middle distillate cracks halved from their November peaks—a symptom of softening industrial demand and burgeoning product inventories.

    Despite repeated geopolitical shocks, prices have consistently failed to maintain upward momentum. North Sea Dated crude averaged just $62.64 a barrel in December, marking a sixth consecutive monthly decline and reaching lows unseen since early 2021. Benchmark prices remain roughly $16 a barrel below the previous year’s levels. A brief January price spike of $6, triggered by renewed tensions involving Iran and Venezuela, quickly subsided as market attention returned to overwhelming fundamentals.

    Leading financial institutions echo this cautious outlook. Goldman Sachs analysts noted that geopolitical risk premiums are being overwhelmingly “absorbed by the weight of surplus supply,” projecting Brent to trade within the $60-$70 band. JPMorgan issued a more bearish warning, suggesting prices could test the low-$60s or even high-$50s if demand weakens further or if OPEC+ accelerates its production increases, citing a market that is “structurally long barrels.” Morgan Stanley tempered extreme downside fears, noting that OPEC+ retains sufficient spare capacity and policy flexibility to intervene should prices fall too sharply.

    Notably, actual supply disruptions have failed to materially tighten market balances. While Iranian exports fell by 350,000 bpd from October highs and Venezuelan shipments dropped under tightened U.S. sanctions, these losses were offset by a strong rebound in Russian output, which rose by 550,000 bpd month-on-month in December to a multi-year high. Temporary disruptions in Kazakhstan also had a muted impact amid the pervasive supply abundance.

    While OPEC maintains a more optimistic demand outlook citing steady economic growth, it acknowledges headwinds from trade tensions and slowing industrial activity. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has similarly highlighted relentless growth in U.S. shale output and rising exports from the Americas as key factors ensuring well-supplied markets. Analysts conclude that with storage tanks brimming and supply growth set to vastly exceed demand, abundance—not scarcity—is the defining characteristic shaping the direction of global crude markets for the foreseeable future.

  • Sobha Realty sales jump 30% to Dh30 billion in FY2025

    Sobha Realty sales jump 30% to Dh30 billion in FY2025

    Dubai-based luxury property developer Sobha Realty has reported extraordinary financial performance for fiscal year 2025, achieving sales of Dh30 billion—representing a substantial 30 percent year-on-year growth that solidifies its position as a premier real estate developer in the Gulf region.

    The remarkable performance was fueled by multiple strategic factors including vigorous off-plan sales activity, the successful launch of new masterplanned communities, and surging interest from international investors. Notably, the emerging northern emirate of Umm Al Quwain contributed significantly to this growth, generating Dh8 billion in sales from developments such as Downtown UAQ | Sobha Realty and Sobha Siniya Island.

    Dubai’s luxury residential sector served as a powerful catalyst, with prime residential prices escalating over 15 percent throughout 2025 according to industry data from Knight Frank and ValuStrat. This appreciation was driven by substantial inflows of global capital, unprecedented population expansion, golden visa initiatives, and sustained demand from high-net-worth individuals relocating to the emirate. The premium segment exceeding Dh10 million per transaction reached unprecedented volumes, particularly for waterfront villas, branded residences, and comprehensive masterplanned communities—all areas where Sobha maintains significant development expertise.

    Chairman Ravi Menon characterized FY2025 as a landmark period for the group’s domestic expansion, highlighted by the introduction of four new masterplans: Sobha Solis, Downtown UAQ | Sobha Realty, Sobha Central, and Sobha SkyParks. These additions bring Sobha’s UAE portfolio to 14 developments, with 12 located in Dubai and two in Umm Al Quwain, demonstrating the company’s growing influence in shaping future urban landscapes.

    The company simultaneously accelerated its global expansion strategy with strategic entries into the United States and Australian markets. Sobha established regional offices and secured prime land parcels in Texas, Queensland, and Sydney, marking a significant evolution into an international real estate platform.

    Capital markets responded enthusiastically to Sobha’s financial strength, with the company’s sukuk issuances attracting massive institutional demand. Its debut offering was oversubscribed by approximately 300 percent, while its green sukuk achieved roughly 280 percent oversubscription—representing the largest green sukuk issuance by any real estate developer worldwide. Listed on both the London Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Dubai, these transactions enhanced funding flexibility and bolstered international investor confidence.

    Concurrently, Sobha reinforced its sustainability leadership through groundbreaking achievements. Sobha One became the first building outside Singapore to obtain the Green Mark Platinum Super Low Energy certification, while the company earned an exceptional score of 97 in the 2025 GRESB Real Estate Assessment, securing a four-star rating.

    Supported by robust sales momentum, expanding global operations, and sustained premium housing demand across the UAE, FY2025 emerged as one of the most transformative years in Sobha Realty’s five-decade history, establishing a solid foundation for continued growth in both regional and international markets.

  • Meta’s new AI team delivered first key models internally this month, CTO says

    Meta’s new AI team delivered first key models internally this month, CTO says

    Meta Platforms has achieved a significant milestone in its artificial intelligence development, with its newly established Meta Superintelligence Labs delivering its first high-profile AI models internally this month. Chief Technology Officer Andrew Bosworth confirmed the development during a press briefing at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos on Wednesday.

    The technology executive revealed that the team, formed just six months ago as part of CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s strategic reorganization of Meta’s AI leadership structure, has already produced models demonstrating substantial promise. While Bosworth did not specify which particular models were delivered, previous media reports indicated Meta was developing a text-based AI system codenamed ‘Avocado’ scheduled for first-quarter release, alongside an image and video-focused model known as ‘Mango’.

    This development follows Zuckerberg’s aggressive moves to reposition Meta in the intensely competitive AI landscape, including leadership restructuring, establishing specialized labs, and recruiting top talent with exceptionally generous compensation packages. The initiatives represent Meta’s strategic response to criticism surrounding the performance of its Llama 4 model and the significant advancements made by competitors including Alphabet’s Google.

    Bosworth emphasized that while the initial models show impressive capability, the technology remains unfinished. He detailed the extensive post-training work required to refine AI systems before they become usable both internally and for consumer applications. Despite these ongoing development challenges, the CTO indicated that Meta’s substantial investments and strategic gambits initiated throughout 2025 are beginning to yield favorable returns, positioning the company more competitively in the race for transformative AI technology.

  • World order in ‘midst of a rupture’: Canada PM Carney tells Davos

    World order in ‘midst of a rupture’: Canada PM Carney tells Davos

    Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney delivered a stark assessment of the international system during his address at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, declaring that the world is experiencing a fundamental rupture rather than a transitional phase. Speaking before U.S. President Donald Trump’s scheduled appearance, Carney characterized the current global environment as one defined by intensifying great power competition and the deterioration of rules-based governance.

    The Prime Minister, who entered Canadian politics last year, reiterated his consistent warning that the world cannot return to the pre-Trump era of international relations. While not explicitly naming the American president, Carney’s analysis clearly addressed the transformative impact of Trump’s policies on global affairs.

    Carney acknowledged Canada’s historical benefits from American-led hegemony, which previously provided public goods including secure maritime routes, financial stability, collective security frameworks, and dispute resolution mechanisms. However, he emphasized that a new reality has emerged where powerful nations increasingly utilize economic integration as tools of coercion rather than cooperation.

    In a particularly striking metaphor, Carney warned that middle powers like Canada must collaborate effectively or risk becoming ‘on the menu’ in great power competitions. He challenged these nations to move beyond simply building defensive walls and instead pursue more ambitious collective strategies.

    The address gained additional significance following reports from Canada’s Globe and Mail newspaper revealing that Canadian military planners have developed contingency models for a potential U.S. invasion. According to anonymous senior officials, these plans involve insurgency-style tactics similar to those used against Soviet and American forces in Afghanistan.

    This military planning context follows concerning rhetoric from President Trump, who has repeatedly referred to Canada as a potential 51st state and recently shared a social media image depicting both Canada and Venezuela under the American flag. The Davos meeting has been further overshadowed by Trump’s threats to enforce U.S. control over Greenland, prompting Carney to affirm Canada’s support for Greenland and Denmark’s right to self-determination.

  • Iran officially counts 3,117 deaths in December-January unrest: report

    Iran officially counts 3,117 deaths in December-January unrest: report

    Iranian state media has formally acknowledged a death toll of 3,117 individuals during widespread civil disturbances that occurred between December 2025 and January 2026. The official count, released by the Forensic Medical Organization through IRIB state television, represents the first specific mortality figure provided by authorities since economic protests erupted across numerous Iranian cities.

    According to the official breakdown, 2,427 of the deceased were characterized as “innocent civilians and security forces.” This confirmation follows previous vague references to “several thousand” casualties by government officials. The reported numbers contrast with estimates from the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, which had projected approximately 4,560 fatalities—a figure lacking independent verification.

    Parallel damage assessments from Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency detailed substantial destruction of public infrastructure, including over 460 government buildings damaged or destroyed, more than 700 banking institutions attacked, and nearly 480 mosques targeted during the unrest.

    The initial demonstrations emerged peacefully in response to severe currency devaluation of the rial before escalating into violent confrontations. Iranian authorities acknowledged economic grievances while simultaneously attributing the violence to foreign intervention. In commentary published by the Wall Street Journal, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi asserted that the “violent phase of the unrest lasted less than 72 hours” before security forces restored order.

    Minister Araghchi further contended that United States policy positions provided incentives for actors pursuing a “maximum bloodshed” strategy. While emphasizing Iran’s preference for peaceful resolution, the Foreign Minister issued a stark warning that Iran’s armed forces would respond decisively to any new attacks, contrasting this position with what he described as previous “restraint” demonstrated in June 2025.

  • Geopolitical and tariff risk back with a bang for markets

    Geopolitical and tariff risk back with a bang for markets

    Financial markets experienced significant turbulence as geopolitical tensions surrounding Greenland and potential tariff impositions by the Trump administration rattled investor confidence globally. The volatility emerged following President Donald Trump’s threats to reignite trade conflicts with Europe, specifically tied to U.S. ambitions regarding Greenland’s strategic acquisition.

    The market reaction on Tuesday was pronounced across multiple asset classes: equity markets declined substantially, with the S&P 500 recording its most severe single-day drop in over three months at 2.1%. Simultaneously, long-dated U.S. Treasuries and the dollar faced selling pressure, while volatility measures spiked across trading platforms.

    Investment strategists noted the concerning absence of traditional dip-buyers despite the market decline. Jack Ablin of Cresset Capital observed that unlike previous selloffs triggered by tariff announcements, investors appeared more cautious about immediate re-entry positions. The situation evoked memories of last year’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement that previously triggered the ‘Sell America’ trade pattern, where international investors reduced exposure to U.S. assets.

    Market professionals expressed particular concern about the simultaneous decline across typically inversely correlated assets. Lauren Goodwin of New York Life Investments highlighted how the coordinated movement challenged conventional portfolio assumptions and risk management strategies.

    Despite the volatility, underlying fundamentals remain robust. Corporate earnings projections indicate continued strength, with S&P 500 companies expected to deliver 13.3% growth for 2025 and an additional 15.5% in 2026 according to LSEG IBES data. However, analysts caution that foreign capital flows could diminish if geopolitical tensions persist, potentially dampening market performance regardless of fundamental strength.

    Investors are monitoring for potential de-escalation, with many recalling Trump’s historical pattern of aggressive positioning followed by negotiation—a phenomenon Wall Street traders have acronymed ‘TACO’ (Trump Always Chickens Out). This expectation of eventual compromise has prevented more severe capital flight, though market participants remain prepared for defensive positioning should tensions escalate further.