Tensions between the United States and Iran have reached a new stalemate, with Tehran’s most powerful military force dismissing any large-scale US military operation as unfeasible, even as US President Donald Trump openly weighs military action against accepting Tehran’s new peace initiative.
After weeks of frozen diplomatic progress following an April 8 ceasefire that has only produced one round of direct talks, Iran submitted a 14-point peace framework to mediator Pakistan earlier this month. The proposal, according to anonymous sources briefed on the text who spoke to US news outlet Axios, lays out a 30-day timeline for negotiations aimed at three core outcomes: reopening the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz, lifting the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, and bringing a permanent end to ongoing conflict across Iran and Lebanon.
Trump, however, quickly cast doubt on the proposal in a post to his Truth Social platform, arguing the plan would almost certainly be unacceptable because he believes Iran has not paid sufficient accountability for what he framed as 47 years of harmful actions against the global community. “I will soon be reviewing the plan that Iran has just sent to us, but can’t imagine that it would be acceptable,” Trump wrote. He has publicly framed his policy options as binary: either launch devastating military strikes against Iran, or pursue a negotiated settlement.
In a formal statement released Sunday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards pushed back, shifting the decision-making burden back to the White House. They argued Trump now faces only two options: an impossible large-scale military campaign, or accept what they called a bad deal with the Islamic Republic. “The room for US decision-making has narrowed,” the statement read.
Iran’s senior diplomatic leadership echoed this framing a day earlier. Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi told international diplomats in Tehran that the US now holds the responsibility to choose between diplomatic dialogue or sustained confrontation, adding that Tehran is fully prepared for either outcome.
Trump, speaking to reporters during a stop in West Palm Beach, Florida Saturday, declined to outline specific triggers for new US military action, but did not rule it out. “If they misbehave, if they do something bad, but right now, we’ll see,” he said. “But it’s a possibility that could happen, certainly.”
Hardline Iranian military figures have responded with aggressive rhetoric of their own. Mohsen Rezaei, a top military adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, warned in a post to X that Iranian forces are fully capable of sinking US warships if attacked. “The US is the only pirate in the world that possesses aircraft carriers,” Rezaei wrote. “Our ability to confront pirates is no less than our ability to sink warships. Prepare to face a graveyard of your carriers and forces.” No US military vessels have been sunk by Iran during the current conflict, and no evidence supports a threat of such action to date.
Diplomatic frictions have also flared over the issue of Iran’s nuclear program. Earlier this week, Axios reported that Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff has pushed to reinsert discussions of Iran’s nuclear activities into any new negotiation round. Iran’s permanent mission to the United Nations hit back Saturday, accusing Washington of blatant hypocrisy, pointing to the US’s own massive nuclear arsenal to criticize its restrictions on Tehran’s atomic program.
The conflict has already reshaped global energy markets and inflicted severe economic pain on the Iranian people. Since the outbreak of war, Iran has controlled access to the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s daily oil supplies pass, cutting off key global shipments of oil, natural gas, and agricultural fertilizer. The US has responded with a naval blockade of Iranian ports, and global crude oil prices have surged roughly 50% above pre-war levels.
Iranian lawmakers are currently drafting legislation to formalize toll collection for vessels passing through the strait. Deputy parliamentary speaker Ali Nikzad announced that 30% of all collected tolls would be allocated to expanding military infrastructure, while the remaining 70% would go toward domestic economic development. “Managing the Strait of Hormuz is more important than acquiring nuclear weapons,” Nikzad said.
For ordinary Iranians, the economic strain is growing steadily. US sanctions and the blockade have cut Iran’s oil exports dramatically, pushing national inflation past 50%. Amir, a 40-year-old resident of Tehran, spoke to AFP from outside the country, describing a population draining emergency savings to cope with the crisis. “Everyone is trying to endure it, but… they are falling apart,” he said. “We still have not seen much of the worst economic effects because everyone had a bit of savings. They had some gold and dollars for a rainy day. When they run out, things will change.”