分类： technology

For more than a decade, policymakers and demographers across the globe have scrambled to address a persistent demographic crisis: steadily falling fertility rates that threaten to reshape aging societies, strain social safety nets, and slow long-term economic growth. While countless explanations have been put forward — from post-2008 recession fallout to rising childcare costs, shifting educational gender norms, and expanded contraceptive access — no single theory has fully accounted for the sustained decline that has continued even amid economic recovery. Now, two independent research projects from U.S. academic institutions are pointing to an unexpected, understudied contributing factor that reached global markets just as birth rates began their steep post-2007 drop: the modern smartphone.

The first of the studies, released Monday by the National Bureau of Economic Research, even frames the trend with a provocative framing question: “Is the iPhone Birth Control?” The paper, led by Middlebury College economist Caitlin Myers and student researcher Ezekiel Hooper, set out to explain why U.S. fertility rates have fallen 22% since 2007 — the year Apple launched the first mass-market touchscreen smartphone, kicking off a global digital revolution.

Prior to this research, the most widespread explanation for the U.S. decline centered on the 2008 global financial crisis, which pushed millions of households into economic uncertainty and led many to delay having children. But that theory failed to explain why birth rates never rebounded once global economies stabilized in the following years. To test their smartphone-focused hypothesis, Myers and Hooper leveraged a unique early market quirk: between 2007 and 2011, iPhones were exclusively available through AT&T’s cellular network in the U.S. This allowed the researchers to compare birth rates across U.S. counties with near-universal AT&T coverage against counties with little to no service during that period.

Their analysis uncovered a clear, statistically significant correlation: regions with early widespread iPhone access saw birth rates drop by 4.5% to 8% among women aged 15 to 19, and by 3.2% to 6.6% among women aged 20 to 24. Smaller but still measurable declines were also recorded among older age groups of women. The researchers emphasize that smartphones are not the sole cause of falling fertility, but conclude that the introduction of the ubiquitous device played a sizable role in shifting social behavior that ultimately reduced birth rates. Their core explanation centers on changing patterns of social interaction: as smartphone usage expanded, in-person gatherings with friends and partnered sexual activity declined sharply, while consumption of online pornography — a potential substitute for partnered sex — rose dramatically.

A second independent study, published in May by University of Cincinnati economists Nathan Hudson and Hernan Moscoso Boedo, extends these findings to a global scale, identifying a consistent cross-border trend that aligns with the U.S.-based results. The pair analyzed World Bank data tracking smartphone penetration and teenage fertility across 120+ countries, spanning vastly different healthcare systems, cultural norms, economic profiles, and social welfare structures. They found that no matter the national context, the decline in birth rates accelerated sharply after smartphones became widely available, a pattern the researchers describe as a common global technology shock.

Not all demographic experts are convinced by the new findings, however. Skeptics point out that teenage birth rates in the United States have been falling since the early 1990s — nearly 15 years before the launch of the first iPhone. Neither study has yet explored what policy implications its findings might hold for governments already struggling to reverse falling birth rates, leaving an open question for future research.

The demographic shift explored in the studies carries far-reaching consequences for nations across the income spectrum. Declining birth rates lead to rapidly aging populations and shrinking working-age cohorts, which puts unprecedented pressure on public retirement and social security systems, while also dragging down long-term economic growth and productivity. U.S. fertility rates are currently at an all-time low, according to Centers for Disease Control data, and major Asian economies including China, Japan, and South Korea are all projected to see their total populations shrink in coming decades. China scrapped its decades-long one-child policy in 2016 in an effort to boost birth rates, while Japan and South Korea have poured billions into pro-natal policy initiatives — all with little meaningful impact on national fertility rates. While the world’s lowest-income nations, primarily those in sub-Saharan Africa, still maintain high birth rates, middle-income economies including India and Brazil have also recorded rapid fertility declines in recent years.

Two years after a high-profile but unfulfilled initial push into artificial intelligence left the tech giant facing public criticism and legal action, Apple has launched a sweeping AI upgrade for its iPhone ecosystem — and it is turning to long-time partner Google to power core capabilities of the new system. Monday’s announcement, made at Apple’s annual Worldwide Developers Conference, also carried historic corporate news: it marked the final keynote appearance from CEO Tim Cook, who will step down from his role in September to hand leadership to veteran hardware executive John Ternus.

Back in 2022, Cook used the same developer stage to announce Apple Intelligence, a major initiative meant to catapult the company into the global AI race that had already become a top priority for fellow U.S. tech giants. The centerpiece of that announcement was a promised revamp of Apple’s Siri voice assistant, but the overhaul never fully materialized. The unkept promise led to a class-action lawsuit from disgruntled U.S. consumers, which Apple settled earlier this year.

Unlike many competitors that have poured hundreds of billions of dollars into building custom AI infrastructure and in-house large language models, Apple has adopted a more gradual, cost-conscious approach that has won approval from some industry analysts. At this year’s conference, Apple leaders doubled down on this strategic framing, arguing that rushing to deploy AI for competitive prestige ignores the needs of end users. “AI is incredibly powerful technology with the potential to shape society in profound ways, and with proper care, unlock meaningful benefits for people everywhere,” Apple software chief Craig Federighi said in a pre-recorded launch video. “Still, some appear to be racing forward, seemingly pursuing AI for the sake of AI, without clear regard for the people… that it’s ultimately meant to serve.”

The centerpiece of Apple’s 2024 AI announcement is a redesigned Siri, rebranded as Siri AI, that will support natural language conversations, cross-app data tracking and task execution across tools including Maps, Mail and other core iPhone applications. Notably, rather than relying on fully in-house developed AI models, Apple has integrated a customized version of Google’s Gemini large language model to power these new features. This partnership builds on an already lucrative existing relationship between the two companies: Google already pays Apple tens of billions of dollars annually to retain its position as the default search engine on iPhone’s Safari browser.

Most of the AI-powered capabilities Apple unveiled Monday have already been available to consumers through Google, which has rolled out similar generative AI features across its Gmail, Maps and Android operating system products. Prominent Apple tech commentator John Gruber noted that the company’s strategy represents a high-stakes bet on a low-investment AI model. “Apple is making an enormous bet on AI — but their bet is that they don’t need to spend hundreds of billions per year on AI infrastructure…to reap the benefits,” Gruber explained.

Alongside its AI announcements, Apple used the conference to highlight expanded parental control tools designed to address growing global scrutiny of tech companies over child screen safety and social media addiction. The updated controls include more flexible and robust time management features that specifically target engagement with social media platforms and mobile games.

Even as Apple lagged behind competitors in rolling out consumer-facing AI features over the past two years, the company’s financial performance has remained strong. Apple stock has defied broader market expectations, rising roughly 15 percent since the start of 2024, and iPhone sales recorded double-digit growth across nearly all of the company’s global markets in the first quarter of the year.

After years of lagging behind the United States and China, where autonomous robotaxi technology has already scaled rapidly, Europe is finally gearing up to open its doors to large-scale trials of self-driving taxis, with a landmark regulatory shift set to be formalized this week.

Data from a May International Energy Agency (IEA) report underscores just how far Europe has fallen behind: the total combined fleet of commercial robotaxis in the US and China more than doubled in 2025 alone, hitting 8,000 vehicles operating across more than 25 major cities. Seven years behind the initial global testing timeline, the first wave of multi-city trials is set to launch across the continent over the coming months, with industry leaders from North America, China and Europe already lining up operations.

To clear the path for faster deployment, the European Union is set to approve a streamlined new “testbed” framework on Monday, senior EU official for autonomous vehicle development Anne-Marie Idrac confirmed to AFP. Currently, strict EU rules require a human safety driver to remain in every test vehicle, a mandate that mirrored early-stage regulations in the US and China. The new framework will eliminate the need for companies to seek separate, country-by-country approval for trials, cutting through bureaucratic red tape that has slowed progress to date.

The first European trial already launched on April 8 in Croatia, where leading Chinese autonomous vehicle firm Pony.ai has partnered with US ride-hailing giant Uber and Croatian startup Verne, backed by automaker Rimac Group, to operate a fleet of 10 robotaxis through the capital city of Zagreb.

Multiple more trials are scheduled to launch across the continent before the end of the year. In London, three separate projects are in the works: global robotaxi leader Waymo, a subsidiary of Google-parent Alphabet, will launch its service, followed by UK-based competitor Wayve (in partnership with Uber) and Baidu’s autonomous ride-hailing brand Apollo Go, one of the world’s largest robotaxi operators. In Madrid, Chinese autonomous firm WeRide has just announced a new trial with Uber, while Uber will also roll out test services in Munich powered by Chinese technology firm Momenta’s autonomous driving system. Apollo Go has also paired with Swiss Post for a pilot program in eastern Switzerland, and multinational automaker Stellantis has joined forces with Pony.ai for a trial in Luxembourg. Leading ride-hailing platforms including Uber, Lyft and Bolt have become the most common partners for these cross-industry testing projects.

Today, the global robotaxi market is already dominated by major players based in the US and China. Wayme says it operates roughly 3,000 fully driverless taxis across a dozen US cities, a fleet size roughly equal to Apollo Go’s, which operates in 27 Chinese cities as well as Dubai. Pony.ai holds a global fleet of 1,700 robotaxis and has set a target of 3,500 vehicles by the end of 2026, while WeRide currently has 1,000 vehicles on roads. Additional key players include Chinese ride-hailing giant Didi and state-owned carmaker SAIC, which operate robotaxi services across major Chinese cities, as well as Tesla and Amazon-owned Zoox, which have deployed test fleets across multiple US cities.

Industry forecasts project massive growth for the global robotaxi market over the next decade. By 2035, the IEA predicts the global fleet will reach between 700,000 and 3 million vehicles operating across 40 to 80 major cities worldwide. Consulting firm BCG projects a total global fleet of 3 million robotaxis by 2035, with 850,000 based in China and 350,000 in the United States, leaving just 120,000 in Europe. Investment bank Goldman Sachs takes a more optimistic view of market expansion, projecting a global fleet of around 6 million robotaxis that will create a $415 billion global industry by mid-decade.

For Europe, two long-standing factors have slowed the rollout of robotaxis to date: strict regional safety regulations and Europe’s deeply established culture of high-quality public transit, according to autonomous vehicle specialist Herve de Treglode. Even so, de Treglode predicts commercial robotaxi services could launch as soon as 2027 in ready markets like London and Madrid. Unlike in Europe, where testing has proceeded in slow, fragmented fits and starts, de Treglode noted that the US and China have pursued a far more aggressive rollout strategy: companies deploy to one neighborhood at a time, remove safety drivers once testing is complete, and scale commercial services with massive ongoing investment.

Even as the EU clears regulatory barriers, Europe’s robotaxi rollout stands at a critical crossroads, with a key disagreement over where services should deploy. Private companies are overwhelmingly eager to launch robotaxi services in dense, highly profitable urban centers, but many policymakers are pushing for services to prioritize underserved suburban and rural areas, where robotaxis could fill gaps in existing public transit networks.

“It’s high time we came up with a strategy,” Laurence Debrincat of the Paris regional transport authority said last month, advocating for investment to expand service outside of dense city cores. Thomas Matagne, founder of French ridesharing firm Ecov, summed up the core choice facing European regulators: “Should we leave the sector to the market, at the risk of concentrating it in densely populated areas? Or should the government invest to roll out (robotaxis) in the general interest?”

Leading artificial intelligence developer Anthropic has ignited fresh debate over AI governance this Thursday, calling for a coordinated global halt to work on the most powerful frontier AI systems. The San Francisco-based firm, creator of the popular Claude AI model line, argues that cutting-edge models are already showing early warning signs that they could slip beyond reliable human control.

In a newly published safety report, the company frames a temporary worldwide slowdown of advanced AI research as a net positive for global society. However, it acknowledges a critical caveat: unilateral action by any single firm would be meaningless, as uncooperative competitors would simply accelerate their own development to gain an upper hand.

“We believe it would be good for the world to have the option to slow or temporarily pause frontier AI development to enable societal structures and alignment research to keep up with the advance of the technology,” the report reads.

Anthropic stresses that a functional pause requires buy-in from all major AI developers across leading AI-pioneering nations, most prominently the United States and China. For the agreement to hold, it must also be built around transparent, verifiable rules that all parties can enforce, the company adds. Without such a global coordination framework, both private firms and national governments will be forced to make unenviable safety trade-offs while caught between competitive commercial pressures and growing geopolitical rivalry.

The proposal has already drawn significant pushback from both industry peers and White House officials. Critics argue that Anthropic’s focus on extreme doomsday scenarios overstates near-term AI risks, accusing the firm of using safety concerns as a pretext to slow down rivals and gain a competitive advantage.

Notably, the White House has already recognized the exceptional capability of Anthropic’s undeveloped Mythos model, which remains out of public reach due to its advanced cybersecurity functions. The model is currently only deployed to a small, carefully vetted group of organizations.

The road to implementing Anthropic’s proposal is already steep on both policy and industry fronts in the U.S. Many Washington policymakers and Silicon Valley executives have repeatedly warned that a domestic slowdown in AI innovation would cede a decisive strategic advantage to China in what is widely viewed as the defining global technology race of the 21st century.

In a surprising turn, former U.S. President Donald Trump noted that he recently discussed potential AI safety cooperation with China during a recent visit to Beijing. This week, Trump also signed an executive order mandating a 30-day preliminary government review of the most powerful U.S.-developed AI models before they can be publicly released.

Drawing a parallel to historical nuclear arms control agreements, Anthropic warns that regulating advanced AI will prove an even greater challenge. Unlike nuclear missile silos, AI training operations can be easily hidden from international inspectors, creating enormous incentive for parties to cheat on any pause agreement by continuing development in secret.

Looking ahead, the company says it will convene a broad coalition of stakeholders over the coming months: government regulators, independent AI researchers, public safety advocacy groups, and even competing AI firms, all to work out the practical framework for a verifiable global coordination system.

Anthropic’s call for action is backed by internal company data that confirms AI is already dramatically accelerating the pace of AI development itself. This auto-acceleration creates a dangerous feedback loop that could eventually lead to the long-debated AI research scenario known as recursive self-improvement, the firm warns.

Recursive self-improvement describes a scenario where an AI system gains the ability to independently modify and improve its own code and capabilities, becoming increasingly intelligent without meaningful human intervention. While Anthropic emphasizes that this scenario has not yet emerged and is not inevitable, the report notes it could arrive far sooner than most governments and societal institutions are prepared to handle it.

“The evidence suggests that the human role is narrowing at each step in the AI development process,” the company concludes.