分类： politics

The oil-rich Gulf states of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have long enjoyed significant advantages, including immense wealth, domestic stability, and growing global influence. In recent months, these nations have moved closer to securing robust and uncritical support from the United States, a development that coincides with the decline of Iranian power in the region. Under President Donald Trump, Gulf monarchs found an ally in Washington who prioritized strategic interests over concerns for democracy and human rights. Trump’s first international trip of his second term to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE underscored their rising international clout. The overthrow of the Assad government in Syria and Israel’s military actions against Iran and its allies in Lebanon and Yemen have further weakened Tehran’s regional threat. However, Gulf Arab states face a precarious political landscape, as evidenced by Israel’s targeted strike on Hamas leaders in Qatar in September 2025. This incident highlights the unpredictable nature of regional dynamics and the challenges Gulf leaders must navigate. Four key uncertainties will shape their future: managing post-civil war Syria, balancing regional politics, monitoring Iran’s trajectory, and addressing Israel’s military assertiveness. In Syria, Gulf states have shifted from opposing the Assad regime to supporting new President Ahmed al-Sharaa, lobbying the US to lift sanctions and seeking stability to address the refugee crisis. Yet, ongoing Israeli attacks and internal conflicts in Syria underscore the region’s fragility. Regionally, Gulf states face the dilemma of supporting authoritarian governments while avoiding the risks of popular unrest and civil wars, as seen in Yemen and Sudan. Iran remains a central concern, with its diminished power potentially leading to instability or a shift in its political system, both of which could disrupt Gulf interests. Meanwhile, Gulf leaders must balance their strategic alignment with Israel against domestic and regional pressures to support Palestinian rights. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) remains a critical platform for regional unity, though internal rivalries persist. As Gulf states strive to expand their influence, they remain vulnerable to external events that could derail their plans.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has escalated military operations in Gaza City, despite mounting domestic and international criticism. This decision comes as the International Association of Genocide Scholars accuses Israel of committing genocide, further fueling global condemnation. On August 2, approximately 40,000 reservists were summoned, with an additional 90,000 expected to be mobilized by early 2026. However, reports indicate a significant decline in the number of reservists willing to serve, with some estimates suggesting a 30% to 50% drop in participation. Israel’s mandatory conscription policy requires high school graduates to serve 18 to 36 months, followed by reserve duty until age 40. Following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks, Israel mobilized 360,000 reservists alongside 100,000 active-duty soldiers, marking one of the largest call-ups in the nation’s history. Initially, the response rate exceeded 100%, but after nearly two years of conflict, fatigue and disillusionment have set in. Many reservists cite exhaustion and the failure to achieve key objectives, such as securing the release of Israeli hostages, as reasons for refusing to serve. This growing reluctance poses a strategic challenge for Netanyahu, as the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) rely heavily on reservists for sustained operations. Historically, refusal to serve has been a form of political protest in Israel, with movements like Yesh Gvul emerging during the Lebanon War in 1982 and gaining traction during the Palestinian uprisings. Recent protests against judicial reforms in 2023 also saw elite combat pilots refusing to serve, highlighting the intersection of military service and political dissent. Despite these challenges, Netanyahu shows no signs of altering his course, even as domestic and international pressure mounts.

The latest National Defense Strategy, delivered to Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, marks a significant shift in U.S. military priorities. The document, reportedly crafted by Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby, advocates for a refocus on domestic and regional missions, moving away from global adversaries like China and Russia. This pivot overturns decades of interventionist policies and signals a more restrained approach to international engagements.

Colby, previously known for his advocacy of a robust ‘Strategy of Denial’ to counter China, has surprised many with this pragmatic stance. During his confirmation hearings, he emphasized that Taiwan, while important, is not an existential interest for the U.S. This shift raises questions about whether it stems from a realistic assessment of U.S. military capabilities or the influence of a mercurial administration.

Meanwhile, China continues to demonstrate its military prowess, showcasing advanced weaponry in a recent parade. The rapid development of China’s defense industry, paralleling its dominance in the electric vehicle sector, underscores its technological and industrial might. With Chinese universities producing 6.7 times more engineers than their U.S. counterparts annually, the pace of innovation in China’s military sector appears unstoppable.

In parallel, the Trump administration has extended tariff negotiations with China for another 90 days, following previous concessions in trade disputes. This ongoing economic tug-of-war highlights the complexities of U.S.-China relations and the challenges of addressing China’s growing economic and military influence.

The new National Defense Strategy reflects a broader reckoning with the limits of U.S. power. As America grapples with domestic issues and overstretched military commitments, the strategy suggests a need to prioritize internal stability over global dominance. This shift, while controversial, may be a necessary step in adapting to a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.

The Reform Party’s annual conference at the National Exhibition Centre in Birmingham showcased a vibrant and diverse crowd, challenging the stereotype that Nigel Farage’s supporters are predominantly older men. Attendees included young men in flamboyant suits, women in light blue dresses, and even a few ethnic minorities, though the majority were white. The atmosphere was electric, resembling a festival with attendees enjoying beer, hot dogs, and burgers, though vegetarian options were scarce. The party’s light blue color was prominently displayed in attire and decorations, with Union Jack and St George’s flags adding to the patriotic fervor. Reform, a right-wing anti-immigrant party, has been leading opinion polls and is a strong contender for the next general election. Nigel Farage, the party leader, received a hero’s welcome, with his speech outlining controversial policies such as deporting 600,000 illegal immigrants within five years and banning the Muslim Brotherhood. The event also featured Zia Yusuf, the new head of policy, who addressed the party’s stance on Israel and Gaza, avoiding direct condemnation of Israel’s actions. The conference highlighted the party’s broad appeal, with members ranging from veterans to young activists, all united by concerns over immigration and national identity. Despite the festive atmosphere, underlying tensions and controversial views on race and religion were evident, reflecting the party’s polarizing nature.

On September 3, Beijing witnessed a historic military parade where Chinese President Xi Jinping unveiled a defense system capable of countering the United States. This display marked a significant shift in global power dynamics, signaling that China is no longer a junior partner to the U.S. but a formidable global power ready to defend and expand its interests. This event, coupled with China’s growing alliances and its philosophy of non-interference in international politics, underscores its strategic rise on the world stage. The recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin further highlighted China’s expanding influence, with India’s presence confirming Beijing’s ability to attract new allies while the U.S. struggles to maintain its traditional partnerships. China’s re-examination of history, particularly its role in World War II, and its emphasis on regional growth through initiatives like the $1.3 billion SCO development bank, further illustrate its comprehensive strategy to reshape global narratives and economic frameworks. Meanwhile, the U.S. faces challenges in maintaining its influence in Asia, with countries like Japan and Australia potentially hedging their security strategies and relying less on American support. This evolving landscape suggests a psychological and strategic decoupling between the U.S. and China, leading to a more tense bilateral atmosphere reminiscent of Cold War II. As China continues to capitalize on American missteps, it is crafting a new world order with its own rules, independent of Western standards. This shift has profound implications for global security, trade, and diplomacy, as nations reassess their alliances and strategies in response to China’s growing assertiveness.

In a significant geopolitical shift, the Lebanese government, under mounting pressure from the United States, has escalated its efforts to disarm Hezbollah, the Shia political party and militant group often described as a ‘state within a state.’ Hezbollah, which emerged in 1982 as a resistance movement against the Israeli invasion, has maintained an armed presence in Lebanon for decades, often clashing with Israel. Tensions between the two factions reached a boiling point in September 2024, following an extensive Israeli bombing campaign in Lebanon. Despite a ceasefire agreement brokered in November 2024, Israel has continued to violate the terms with ongoing air strikes and the occupation of five Lebanese locations.

US officials have indicated that Chinese President Xi Jinping has set a 2027 deadline for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to achieve the capability to invade Taiwan, coinciding with the centennial anniversary of the PLA’s founding. This revelation was highlighted by US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth during a security conference in Singapore in May, where he emphasized the “imminent threat” China poses to Taiwan. Over the past decade, the PLA has undergone significant modernization, building the world’s largest navy and coast guard. However, rather than outright invasion, China appears to be leaning towards a strategy of prolonged blockade to pressure Taiwan into submission. This approach, known as ‘lianhe fengkong’ (joint blockade), would involve cutting off Taiwan from external resources, leveraging coordinated air, sea, and land-based systems. A recent report by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) simulated 26 war game scenarios, predicting severe consequences for Taiwan, including depletion of natural gas within ten days, coal and oil shortages within weeks, and a halt in manufacturing if electricity levels drop to 20%. Taiwan’s vulnerability stems from its heavy reliance on port calls and limited emergency reserves. While blockades are not inherently illegal under international law, they must comply with war regulations, including effectiveness, notification, and impartial enforcement. China’s potential strategies range from kinetic blockades targeting merchant ships to non-kinetic measures like encircling the island with its naval forces. Counter-blockade strategies, such as those led by the US, could involve closing critical trade routes like the Malacca Strait, though such actions risk global economic disruption. The optimal response may lie in bolstering Taiwan’s resilience through increased stockpiles and infrastructure development, alongside US naval support to break potential blockades, albeit at significant risk of escalation.

The once-thriving diplomatic and economic partnership between China and Israel is facing unprecedented strain as escalating tensions between the United States and China force Israel into a delicate balancing act. What began as a pragmatic alliance centered on technological collaboration and trade has evolved into a complex geopolitical puzzle, with Israel caught between its most vital ally and one of its largest economic partners. Over the past three decades, China and Israel cultivated robust ties in technology, trade, and diplomacy, with Chinese investments fueling Israeli tech startups and bilateral trade flourishing in sectors like semiconductors and agricultural innovation. However, recent geopolitical shifts have disrupted this dynamic, creating unforeseen challenges for both nations. The turning point came after Hamas’s October 2023 attacks on Israel and the subsequent military response. China, previously neutral, adopted a pro-Palestinian stance, condemning Israeli actions and supporting UN resolutions critical of Israel’s policies. This marked a significant departure from its earlier balanced approach. The US-China rivalry has further complicated matters, particularly in the technology sector. Washington has pressured Israel to restrict technology transfers to China, especially in sensitive areas like semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and defense technologies. This pressure has yielded tangible results, with Israeli semiconductor exports to China halving from $21 million in 2020 to $11 million in 2022. Israeli companies have been forced to reevaluate their Chinese partnerships, with some deals canceled under American scrutiny. Despite these challenges, economic ties between China and Israel remain resilient, with bilateral trade reaching $16.3 billion in 2024. However, this interdependence also exposes vulnerabilities. China’s reliance on Middle Eastern oil, particularly from Iran, complicates its relationship with Israel, given Iran’s adversarial stance. The October 2023 conflict also reshaped Chinese perceptions of Israel, with Beijing increasingly critical of Israeli military actions. This shift has eroded trust, as evidenced by 2024 polls showing a majority of Israelis now view China as unfriendly. The crisis underscores broader strategic realignments in the Middle East, where the US and China vie for influence. While the US remains Israel’s primary security guarantor, China’s alignment with Iran and Palestine has limited its role as a regional mediator. US concerns over Chinese access to Israeli technology have intensified, leading to enhanced investment screening and restricted cooperation. The future of China-Israel relations hinges on several factors, including the trajectory of US-China competition, regional stability, and global technology governance. Israel must navigate these pressures while balancing its economic interests and security concerns. This evolving relationship serves as a microcosm of how great power competition impacts smaller states, offering insights into the challenges of navigating a multipolar world.