Global Pulse

分类： politics

  • Sino-US cooperation on AI on the table

    Sino-US cooperation on AI on the table

    Following a high-level bilateral summit between Chinese and U.S. leaders in Beijing that opened new space for dialogue on emerging technologies, artificial intelligence has emerged as a promising potential area of collaboration between the world’s two largest technological powers, according to leading international affairs experts, who are also sounding the alarm over the urgent need to address cross-border AI risks before they escalate.

    During U.S. President Donald Trump’s official visit to China in May, the two heads of state held productive, constructive discussions on artificial intelligence development and governance, and reached a consensus to launch formal intergovernmental dialogue focused on the topic.

    At a May 19 press briefing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun emphasized that as the world’s two leading AI powers, China and the United States bear a shared responsibility to work together to advance responsible AI development and strengthen global AI governance frameworks. Such collaboration, he noted, would ensure the technology serves as a driver of human progress and delivers shared benefits to the entire global community.

    Fred Teng, president of the America China Public Affairs Institute and a fellow at the U.S. Foreign Policy Association, told China Daily that AI can no longer be framed as a narrow technical issue confined to research labs and tech companies. “AI is now an economic, security, governance and strategic stability issue,” Teng said. He stressed that joint action by China and the United States to mitigate risks stemming from the malicious use of AI is not just beneficial—it is essential.

    Teng warned that the pace of AI advancement is already outstripping the development of diplomatic frameworks, regulatory rules, and public understanding of the technology. Capabilities that were once restricted exclusively to national governments, he noted, will soon be accessible to small non-state groups and even individual actors, creating unprecedented risk.

    “AI can make cyberattacks more automated, deepfakes more convincing, fraud more scalable, and biological or chemical risks harder to control. These dangers do not respect borders,” Teng said. “AI is not separate from strategic stability. AI is now part of strategic stability.”

    Zhiqun Zhu, professor of political science and international relations and director of the China Institute at Bucknell University, echoed Teng’s call for urgent collaboration, noting that unchecked AI progress poses shared global dangers that no single country can address alone.

    “AI technologies are progressing rapidly and changing the world enormously, so there is an urgent need to establish some protocol about the usage of AI at the international level,” Zhu explained in an interview. “The United States and China are the two biggest technological powers and should take the leadership in developing such protocols.”

    Even so, Zhu acknowledged that turning shared interests in responsible AI into tangible, concrete cooperation will present significant challenges. Reaching consensus on the boundaries and appropriate uses of AI, especially in sensitive domains tied to national security, will be “a tall order,” he said.

    Despite these hurdles, experts say the two countries are uniquely positioned to lead global AI risk mitigation, even amid ongoing bilateral competition. Kyle Chan, a fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution, argued that large-scale collaboration on AI risk reduction does not require broad bilateral trust, full strategic alignment, or compromise on core national interests.

    “The United States and China can continue to compete vigorously in AI while taking practical steps to reduce shared risks,” Chan wrote in a recent Brookings Institution commentary.

    Teng, who also serves as an adviser to the George H. W. Bush Foundation for US-China Relations, outlined a series of practical, low-barrier starting points for cooperation that focus on shared risk reduction rather than broad systemic alignment. First, he called on both governments to align AI safety standards for advanced AI models that could impact cyber operations, biological research, global financial systems, critical national infrastructure, and military decision-making processes.

    Teng also proposed that the two sides build dedicated AI risk-reduction mechanisms, including secure emergency communication channels that can be activated in the event of an AI-enabled attack on critical infrastructure. Additionally, he said cross-border information sharing on malicious AI use—ranging from AI-powered cybercrime and deepfake disinformation to threats against critical public services like hospitals and power grids—should be a core priority for early dialogue.

    In the military domain, Teng said the two governments must agree on foundational ethical and operational principles, most importantly that human actors must retain full responsibility for all life-or-death strategic decisions, even as AI systems grow more autonomous and capable.

    Teng drew a parallel to Cold War-era nuclear risk reduction cooperation between the United States and the Soviet Union, where the two geopolitical rivals maintained fierce systemic competition while collaborating on practical measures to reduce the risk of accidental conflict. The same logic, he argued, applies to AI governance today.

    “Cooperation can be limited to areas of shared risks, such as AI-enabled cybercrime, attacks by non-state actors, crisis communication, model safety testing and protection of critical infrastructure,” Teng said. “Cooperation is not a concession; it is responsible self-protection.”

  • The bad news keeps coming for Keir Starmer with new trove of Mandelson files due to be published

    The bad news keeps coming for Keir Starmer with new trove of Mandelson files due to be published

    LONDON – Already grappling with plummeting public approval ratings and open leadership challenges from within his own party, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing a fresh wave of political embarrassment this week with the imminent publication of hundreds of government documents tied to former U.S. ambassador Peter Mandelson, a long-standing associate of disgraced convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

    Lawmakers from across the political spectrum have formally demanded the release of all records detailing Mandelson’s appointment to the critically important diplomatic posting and his conduct while in office, and Downing Street has confirmed it will comply with the order. This is not the first controversy sparked by the appointment: Starmer fired Mandelson from the post just nine months after his nomination, and the fallout from the botched hiring has already pushed the prime minister into one of the most precarious positions of his leadership.

    An initial batch of documents released in March already confirmed that senior government ministers were explicitly warned prior to Mandelson’s appointment that his close personal ties to Epstein would create severe “reputational risk” for the ruling Labour government. Further reporting later uncovered that Mandelson was ultimately cleared for the ambassador role despite failing mandatory national security vetting, a revelation that ignited a fiery public blame game between Starmer’s political team and top senior civil servants responsible for overseeing the background check process.

    The new tranche of records set for publication Monday is expected to top more than 1,000 pages, and includes internal emails and text correspondence exchanged between Mandelson, sitting cabinet ministers, and Downing Street policy advisers. Law enforcement officials have requested that a small selection of documents be withheld from public release, as they form part of an active ongoing criminal investigation into allegations of misconduct in public office against Mandelson. The 72-year-old former Labour grandee was briefly taken into custody by detectives in February, who are probing claims he passed sensitive British government information to Epstein during his time as a cabinet minister roughly 15 years ago. He was released from custody without bail conditions, and the investigation remains ongoing.

    Speaking on Monday morning to Sky News, Health Secretary James Murray framed the mass document release as a demonstration of the government’s commitment to unprecedented transparency. “It’s right we do this. We have been very clear that the appointment of Mandelson was wrong,” Murray told reporters.

    But the opposition has rejected the government’s framing, warning that any excessive redactions or withheld documents beyond those required by the police investigation will have severe consequences. “Any attempt to withhold or redact more documents than those requested by police will be viewed by the House as a contempt of Parliament, and as a cover-up by the British public,” Conservative lawmaker Alex Burghart said in a statement.

    Starmer ultimately fired Mandelson in September 2025, after an earlier round of document releases confirmed he had continued to maintain personal contact with Epstein long after the financier’s 2008 conviction for sexual offenses involving a minor.

    Critics across the political spectrum argue that the fiasco of Mandelson’s appointment is not an isolated misstep, but proof of deep-seated poor judgment from Starmer, who has faced repeated criticism for a string of missteps since leading the centre-left Labour Party to a landslide general election victory in July 2024. New details of Mandelson’s long-standing ties to Epstein were first laid out in a massive cache of court documents released by the U.S. Department of Justice in January 2025, and the revelations immediately reignited questions about Starmer’s decision-making, leading both opposition parties and a growing group of dissident Labour lawmakers to publicly call for the prime minister to resign.

    Those calls for Starmer’s ouster grew substantially louder after the Labour Party suffered devastating, widespread losses in local elections held last May. One of Starmer’s most senior cabinet colleagues, Health Secretary Wes Streeting, resigned from government shortly after the election losses and has publicly confirmed he intends to challenge Starmer for the Labour Party leadership. Another top potential challenger, Andy Burnham, the popular Mayor of Greater Manchester, is currently contesting a June 18 special election for a seat in Parliament; a win for Burnham would almost certainly see him launch a formal leadership challenge against the embattled prime minister.

  • Hungary’s Magyar to amend the constitution to remove President Tamás Sulyok

    Hungary’s Magyar to amend the constitution to remove President Tamás Sulyok

    In a major post-election shakeup reshaping Hungary’s political landscape after 16 years of populist rule under Viktor Orbán, newly elected Prime Minister Péter Magyar has confirmed plans to amend Hungary’s constitution to oust the sitting president, a holdover appointee from Orbán’s administration.

    Magyar’s Tizsa party secured a landslide victory in April’s national parliamentary election, winning a supermajority of two-thirds of seats — a threshold that grants the new government the power to enact sweeping structural reforms to the authoritarian political system Orbán built during his long tenure. Since taking power, Magyar has repeatedly pressured President Tamás Sulyok, who was appointed by Orbán’s former ruling party, to step down voluntarily, setting a firm May 31 deadline for his exit. Magyar has publicly labeled Sulyok as Orbán’s loyal puppet, arguing the sitting president is incapable of representing the new democratic mandate Hungarian voters delivered.

    Though Hungary’s presidency is largely a ceremonial position, it holds key constitutional powers: the office is responsible for formalizing all legislation by signing it into law, and can opt to send parliamentary bills to the Constitutional Court for judicial review. That authority has sparked significant anxiety among the new government’s supporters, who warn Sulyok could use his institutional powers to block and derail Magyar’s promised reform agenda.

    On Monday morning, the two leaders held closed-door talks at Sándor Palace, the official presidential residence in Budapest. After the meeting, Magyar addressed reporters at a public press conference, confirming that Sulyok had flatly rejected calls to resign voluntarily. In response, Magyar announced he would immediately direct Tizsa party lawmakers to launch the necessary constitutional procedures to remove the president from office, a process he projected will take approximately four weeks to complete.

    “Hungary does not belong to Tamás Sulyok, nor to Viktor Orbán. It does not belong to a single party or a closed political system,” Magyar told reporters. “Our constitution clearly states that the president must embody the unity of the nation and safeguard the democratic functioning of the state.”

    Magyar stopped short of releasing specific details of the constitutional amendments that will be used to facilitate Sulyok’s removal, but outlined a series of accusations against the sitting president, arguing he has failed to fulfill his core constitutional duties. In particular, Magyar criticized Sulyok for remaining silent when Orbán made dehumanizing public remarks targeting political opponents and government critics, and when Orbán’s administration passed legislation banning annual LGBTQ+ Pride events in the country.

    “It is in Hungary’s national interest that the office of the president regains the public prestige that has been eroded by its years of silence and inaction,” Magyar added.

    Sulyok’s office pushed back against Magyar’s demands late last week, releasing an official statement arguing that the prime minister’s calls for resignation harm the constitutional order and undermine the institutional authority of the Hungarian presidency. The statement also confirmed that Sulyok has requested an independent legal review of the political conflict from the Venice Commission, the advisory legal body attached to the Council of Europe, Europe’s leading intergovernmental human rights organization.

    The clash over the presidency is the latest in a series of rapid changes Magyar has spearheaded since taking office, including unlocking billions in frozen European Union funding by delivering on initial reform commitments, maintaining Hungary’s membership in the International Criminal Court, and launching investigations into alleged misconduct by Orbán’s former government.

  • De la Espriella, Cepeda advance to runoff in Colombia’s presidential election

    De la Espriella, Cepeda advance to runoff in Colombia’s presidential election

    BOGOTA – Colombia’s 2026 presidential election has moved to a runoff contest after the first round of voting on Sunday delivered a split result that put a far-right independent and a leftist incumbent coalition candidate at the top of the ballot count. According to preliminary official data released by Colombia’s National Civil Registry, independent candidate Abelardo de la Espriella – linked to the far-right Defenders of the Homeland movement – and Ivan Cepeda, nominee of the ruling left-wing Historic Pact coalition, secured the two highest vote shares to advance to the second round.

    With 97.58 percent of all ballots cast across the country already processed, de la Espriella holds a narrow lead over Cepeda, capturing 43.77 percent of the vote compared to Cepeda’s 40.88 percent. Right-wing contender Paloma Valencia, running for the opposition Democratic Center party, finished in third place with 6.91 percent of the total vote, falling well short of the support needed to earn a spot in the runoff.

    More than 41.4 million registered Colombian voters were eligible to participate in Sunday’s election, which tasked the electorate with choosing a president and vice president to serve the 2026-2030 presidential term. Votes were cast at roughly 13,000 polling stations spread across the South American nation, with polls opening at 8 a.m. local time and closing at 4 p.m. local time.

    Under Colombia’s constitutional electoral rules, a candidate must win an outright majority of more than 50 percent of the first-round vote to claim the presidency immediately. Since no candidate in the 2026 race crossed that threshold, the two top finishers will compete in a head-to-head runoff election scheduled for June 21. The winner of the runoff will be inaugurated to take office on August 7, marking the start of the four-year presidential term.

  • Venezuela’s ruling party unity cracks as Delcy Rodríguez shifts Chávez-era policies

    Venezuela’s ruling party unity cracks as Delcy Rodríguez shifts Chávez-era policies

    For nearly three decades, the rallying cry “United, we will win!” defined the unbreakable facade of Venezuela’s Chavista movement, a fiercely nationalist socialist project that weathered decades of U.S. hostility, economic collapse, and mass unrest to hold onto power. From street protests to state television broadcasts, generations of Venezuelans—young and old, party leaders and grassroots loyalists—pumped their fists to the slogan, reinforcing the coalition’s lockstep loyalty to the project and its longstanding antagonism toward Washington. But that long-touted unity has fractured dramatically, following the January U.S. military operation that resulted in the capture of longtime president Nicolás Maduro, opening deep rifts within the once-cohesive ruling bloc.

  • Philippine senator charged with plunder says he will surrender

    Philippine senator charged with plunder says he will surrender

    MANILA, Philippines — In a high-profile development tied to one of the Philippines’ most prominent political corruption cases, Philippine Senator Jinggoy Estrada announced Monday that he will comply with a new court-ordered arrest warrant stemming from a plunder charge connected to massive kickback payments in a national flood-control infrastructure project.

    The sequence of legal actions unfolded rapidly last week: the Sandiganbayan, the country’s specialized anti-graft court, first issued an arrest warrant for 63-year-old Estrada this past Friday on a separate graft charge that qualified for bail. Following that initial warrant, Estrada turned himself in to authorities, secured his release on bail, and once again publicly rejected all accusations of misconduct against him.

    The core allegations against the senator originate from testimony given by a former public works department engineer, who claims Estrada accepted illicit kickbacks totaling more than 570 million Philippine pesos — equivalent to roughly $9.3 million — from the flood-control construction contracts at the center of the investigation. Estrada has repeatedly and forcefully denied all wrongdoing tied to the case, maintaining his innocence in the face of the corruption allegations that have dominated recent political headlines in the country.

  • Polls open in Ethiopia’s election that is widely expected to be won by the ruling party

    Polls open in Ethiopia’s election that is widely expected to be won by the ruling party

    Voting kicked off across Ethiopia on Monday for a highly contested national parliamentary election that pollsters and political analysts almost universally predict will deliver another term in office to incumbent Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his ruling Prosperity Party. As the East African nation, which is Africa’s second most populous and home to the African Union’s continental headquarters, opened polling stations at 6 a.m. local time, a heavy deployment of military personnel was visible across the capital city of Addis Ababa, while international and local observers issued widespread calls for a calm, violence-free voting process.

    Long lines of voters began forming well before polling stations opened, a sign of strong engagement among many eligible Ethiopians who turned out to make their political preferences count. Roughly 50 million registered voters, out of Ethiopia’s total estimated population of 130 million, are eligible to cast ballots across the country. On top of selecting 547 members of the federal House of Representatives—who will later convene to vote for the country’s next prime minister—voters are also electing representatives to thousands of local government council seats. Official preliminary election results are expected to be announced later on Monday.

    From the start of the voting period, the election has been mired in controversy. Ethiopia’s fragmented opposition parties have raised widespread alarms over what they describe as rapidly shrinking political space ahead of the vote, with many alleging that their candidates and campaign teams were blocked from accessing public spaces, restricted from canvassing for support, and barred from reaching voters fairly across much of the country. The Ethiopian government has also faced sustained international criticism over documented reports of human rights abuses targeting opposition activists, government critics, and independent journalists operating in the country.

    Noah Yesuf, a prominent Ethiopian human rights defender, went so far as to deem the entire election illegitimate from its opening stages. “The fairness of an election is judged by whether there is a level playing field for the opposition and a conducive environment for citizens to freely participate,” Yesuf told the Associated Press in an interview on polling day.

    Public sentiment toward the political process remains deeply divided among ordinary Ethiopian voters. Many citizens have expressed growing voter apathy, rooted in years of unfulfilled promises from political leaders that have left large portions of the population disillusioned with the democratic process. Yet other voters remain committed to participating, even amid widespread uncertainty about whether their ballots will deliver tangible change.

    Senait Dereje, a 37-year-old small business owner running a shop in Addis Ababa, said she remained determined to cast her ballot despite her own doubts. “I have registered to vote. I am not sure if my vote will bring the change that I want and that will help change my livelihood,” Dereje told the AP. “I know many friends refuse to vote as they have given up on the politicians but I have not and I see it as a referendum like vote on the mixed record of the government.”

    Two core themes have shaped the 2024 election cycle: national reconciliation and economic development. After years of devastating internal conflict in restive regions including Tigray, Oromia, and Amhara that left hundreds of thousands dead and displaced millions more, the government has framed the vote as a step toward unifying a fractured nation. On the economic front, the ruling Prosperity Party has campaigned on pledges to deliver large-scale infrastructure projects and inclusive growth to lift millions of Ethiopians out of poverty.

  • Australian woman accused of joining Islamic State group has renounced jihad, her lawyer says

    Australian woman accused of joining Islamic State group has renounced jihad, her lawyer says

    MELBOURNE, Australia — A 34-year-old Australian national facing terrorism charges for her alleged ties to the Islamic State (ISIS) appeared before a Melbourne court this Monday, where prosecutors laid out detailed allegations of her extremist activities dating back more than a decade, including indoctrination of her own children and recruitment of other Australians to join the militant group in Syria.

    Rayann El Houli stands formally accused of two key offenses: becoming a member of a designated terrorist organization, and illegally entering and residing in Raqqa, Syria, between 2013 and 2014, when the city served as the de facto capital of ISIS’s self-declared caliphate. Prosecutors detailed the allegations in their evidence summary, which was outlined by Chief Magistrate Lisa Hannan during the bail hearing.

    According to Hannan’s reading of the prosecution’s case, El Houli traveled to the conflict zone with the premeditated goal of aligning with ISIS fighters. While residing in Raqqa, she openly embraced radicalized ideology, publicly voicing support for terrorist attacks and glorifying martyrdom. Prosecutors further allege she repeatedly endorsed violence against people she labeled non-believers, worked to radicalize her own children to adopt extremist views, and actively reached out to contacts in Australia to persuade them to travel to Syria to join ISIS under the group’s extremist ideology.

    El Houli only departed Raqqa in 2019, when the ISIS caliphate was militarily defeated by coalition forces — not because she had rejected her previous beliefs, Hannan noted. After leaving the city, she stayed at the al-Hol displaced person camp in northeastern Syria for years before eventually being smuggled across the border into Lebanon. She returned to Australia from Lebanon last year, and was taken into custody by counter-terrorism police in Melbourne just last week.

    In her bail application, El Houli’s defense counsel Peter Morrissey pushed back against the prosecution’s narrative, telling the court that the defense will present expert testimony proving his client has fully renounced her past extremist views. “She renounces ISIS and violent jihad,” Morrissey stated. “She wants nothing to do with it: not now directly or indirectly. Not in the future. Not for herself. Not for the people she loves and specifically not for the children.”

    Chief Magistrate Hannan ordered that the court receive full details of the circumstances surrounding El Houli’s escape from al-Hol camp and subsequent smuggling to Lebanon before ruling on bail. Under Australian law, individuals charged with terrorism offenses are only eligible for release on bail in extraordinary circumstances, and each of the charges against El Houli carries a maximum penalty of 10 years imprisonment if convicted. The bail hearing was adjourned to a future date that is yet to be scheduled.

    El Houli’s case is the latest in a string of terrorism-related arrests involving Australian citizens who returned home after traveling to Syria to join ISIS. Three other Australian women with confirmed links to the militant group were arrested on slavery and terrorism charges immediately upon their recent return to the country, and all remain in pretrial detention. Additional former Australian ISIS affiliates who have returned to the country remain active subjects of ongoing counter-terrorism police investigations.

  • Outgoing chair Powell delivers defense of Fed independence

    Outgoing chair Powell delivers defense of Fed independence

    Outgoing U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell used a high-profile award acceptance speech Sunday to deliver a firm, public defense of the U.S. central bank’s long-standing political independence, pushing back against repeated assaults on the institution’s autonomy from the Donald Trump administration.

    Speaking at the John F. Kennedy Library Foundation, where he received the 2025 Profile in Courage Award for his efforts to protect the Fed’s independence, Powell framed the recent challenges to the central bank as an unprecedented stress test for its institutional credibility. “Like many other institutions, the Fed has been undergoing a stress test,” Powell told the audience. “If any administration finds a way to remove Fed officials over policy differences, then future administrations will do so as well.”

    Powell’s warning came as a thinly veiled rebuke of the Trump administration’s efforts to oust Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over unsubstantiated mortgage fraud allegations. The legality of the administration’s attempt to remove Cook is currently pending before the U.S. Supreme Court, with a ruling expected in the coming months.

    If successful, Powell argued, such a move would irreparably damage public trust in the central bank’s ability to set monetary policy in the best interest of all Americans, rather than for short-term political gain. “Our credibility has been built and sustained over many decades, and we have a duty to safeguard that priceless asset for our fellow citizens and for generations to come,” he added.

    This is not the first time the Trump administration has targeted Powell himself. During his second term in office, Trump repeatedly launched public attacks on Powell, criticizing him for moving too slowly to cut interest rates to stimulate economic growth. The administration’s Department of Justice even opened a criminal investigation into Powell over a routine building renovation project at the Fed, a probe that was only dropped to clear legislative path for the confirmation of Powell’s successor, Trump’s nominee Kevin Warsh, by the U.S. Senate.

    Powell officially stepped down from his role as Fed chair earlier this month at the end of his four-year term. In an unusual break from precedent for outgoing chairs, he has chosen to remain on the Fed’s Board of Governors through the end of his governor term, which expires in 2028. Powell has cited ongoing threats to the central bank’s independence as his reason for staying, while committing to maintain a low public profile in the role.

    Trump has openly celebrated Warsh’s ascension to the top Fed role, following a lengthy, partisan confirmation battle in the Senate. The president hosted a lavish swearing-in ceremony for Warsh at the White House last week, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed Trump’s positive tone Friday, telling reporters “The renewal and change is good, and I think we are going to see a new sheriff in town.”

    Sunday’s award ceremony also honored the people of Minnesota’s Twin Cities — Minneapolis and St. Paul — with the Profile in Courage Award. The foundation recognized local residents for risking their safety to protect neighbors and immigrant community members during a massive, Trump-ordered surge in federal immigration enforcement operations earlier this year. The crackdown sparked widespread mass protests across the region, and left at least two U.S. citizen protesters and one migrant dead in confrontations with law enforcement.

  • Colombia presidential runoff pits leftist senator against pro-Trump rival

    Colombia presidential runoff pits leftist senator against pro-Trump rival

    After a tightly contested first round of voting Sunday that left no candidate crossing the 50% threshold for an outright win, Colombia is set for a high-stakes June 21 presidential runoff that pitches a far-left ideological ally of the current administration against a hard-right, Trump-aligned outsider. When nearly all ballots were counted, right-wing contender Abelardo de la Espriella – a lawyer and businessman who styles himself “El Tigre” – secured first place with 43.7% of the vote, edging out left-wing senator Iván Cepeda Castro, who earned 41% of support. The result upended pre-election polling that had widely predicted Cepeda would finish ahead of his conservative challenger.

    At its core, the runoff election will offer Colombian voters two starkly opposing visions for addressing the country’s decades-long internal armed conflict, which has reemerged with rising violence in recent years. Cepeda, a key ally of incumbent President Gustavo Petro, Colombia’s first left-wing head of state, brings deep firsthand experience in peace negotiations: he was a central figure in the 2016 historic peace deal between the Colombian government and the FARC guerrilla movement that led to the disarmament of thousands of rebel fighters. Today, he is widely recognized as the architect of Petro’s flagship “total peace” strategy, which prioritizes ceasefire talks and negotiated settlements with armed groups over large-scale military intervention.

    The Petro administration’s approach to peace and security has become a central flashpoint of the campaign. During Petro’s term, cocaine production has reached an all-time record high, armed group membership has expanded, and border violence has spiked to its worst level in decades, displacing tens of thousands of Colombians. Critics and security analysts widely dismiss “total peace” as a failed policy, though Petro has pushed back, noting his government has seized more illegal narcotics than any prior administration. On the economic front, Colombia has seen modest growth under Petro, and the president delivered a significant increase to the national minimum wage, yet roughly one in three Colombians still lives below the poverty line. If elected, Cepeda has pledged to advance progressive economic reforms, including expanding social welfare programs and advancing land redistribution for victims of the country’s long-running internal conflict.

    De la Espriella, by contrast, has built his campaign on a full-throated rejection of Petro’s peace strategy, calling instead for a harsh military crackdown on organized crime and armed groups. A self-described admirer of former U.S. President Donald Trump, he has proposed deepening security cooperation with the United States, including carrying out targeted bombings of cartel strongholds with U.S. backing, expanding the military’s domestic policing powers, and holding mass trials for alleged organized crime members. Echoing the hardline approach of El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele – whom de la Espriella has cited as a policy and even personal influence, with commentators noting the similarity of their facial hair – he has pledged to construct 10 new maximum-security mega-prisons in remote jungle regions. He has also promised to drastically cut the size of the Colombian national government.

    The right-wing candidate has faced significant controversy over his professional background as a defense attorney. He previously represented high-profile clients including Alex Saab, a close associate of ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro who currently faces U.S. money laundering charges, and David Murcia Guzmán, the mastermind of a multibillion-dollar pyramid scheme that defrauded thousands of Colombians. De la Espriella has framed his representation of these figures as a standard part of legal practice for defense counsel, but critics have accused him of profiting from his work for powerful criminals.

    With moderate conservative senator Paloma Valencia finishing third in the first round, de la Espriella is widely seen as well-positioned to pick up the bulk of her right-leaning supporters in the runoff, putting him in a strong starting position for the second round of voting.

    The election outcome will carry far-reaching implications for regional geopolitics, particularly for Colombia’s relationships with the United States and neighboring countries. In recent years, a wave of right-wing victories has swept across Latin America, with conservative candidates winning presidential elections in Ecuador, Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, Honduras and El Salvador. The Trump administration, which returned to power in 2025, has pursued an aggressive muscular foreign policy in the region: it has carried out a military raid that captured Nicolás Maduro, launched strikes on alleged drug trafficking vessels in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific, imposed a full oil blockade on Cuba, and earlier this year established the “Shield of the Americas”, a security alliance of right-leaning regional leaders focused on combating cartel activity.

    While Petro and Trump have a history of public clashes and verbal insults over drug policy and U.S. intervention in the region, relations between the two leaders warmed following a February meeting at the White House, and anti-narcotics cooperation between the two countries has continued largely uninterrupted. Cepeda shares Petro’s anti-interventionist stance, repeatedly arguing that Colombia should not act as a “vassal state” to the U.S., while de la Espriella has made clear he seeks to strengthen security alliances with Washington and aligns ideologically with Trump. To date, Trump has not issued a formal endorsement of either candidate, a departure from his public involvement in other recent regional elections.

    The runoff will also shape relations between Colombia and neighboring Ecuador, which has faced a dramatic surge in violence driven by drug trafficking that largely transits through Ecuadorian territory after leaving Colombia, the world’s largest cocaine producer. Ecuador’s conservative President Daniel Noboa has already imposed tariffs on Colombian imports, accusing Petro’s government of failing to secure their shared border. Last month, Noboa confirmed he had reached an agreement with de la Espriella to drop the tariffs if the right-wing candidate wins, in exchange for cooperation on extraditing Ecuadorean criminals hiding in Colombia and a joint crackdown on narcoterrorism. Colombia’s foreign ministry quickly condemned Noboa’s move as “deliberate interference” in its sovereign election, and Noboa’s office has not yet issued a public response to the accusation.

    The entire campaign season has been marred by pervasive political violence, including drone attacks on candidates, widespread kidnappings, multiple political homicides, and the assassination of a presidential candidate at a public rally last year. Security forces deployed heavily across the country on election Sunday, with armed guards posted at polling stations to protect voters and election officials.