分类： politics

The geopolitical stalemate between Iran and Western powers is poised to extend through 2026, marked by deteriorating trust, regional conflict spillover, and the complete dissolution of the 2015 nuclear agreement. This dangerous limbo has created conditions for potential military escalation despite brief periods of ceasefire.

The confrontation entered a new phase in December when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly sought U.S. approval for expanded military operations targeting Iran’s ballistic missile programs, signaling a strategic shift beyond previous focus on nuclear facilities. President Donald Trump responded with explicit threats to “eradicate” any Iranian attempts to rebuild its nuclear or missile capabilities.

Iran’s leadership remained defiant, with Supreme Leader adviser Ali Shamkhani declaring the country’s missile capability “not containable or permission-based” and promising “immediate harsh response” to any aggression.

The current tensions follow June 2025’s watershed 12-day conflict that shattered long-standing taboos on direct confrontation. Israel initiated surprise airstrikes against Iranian nuclear and military sites, followed by U.S. bombing of key nuclear facilities. Iran retaliated with strikes on the Al-Udeid U.S. base in Qatar, creating what analysts describe as a tense mutual deterrence situation.

The collapse of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in October 2025 significantly compounded the crisis. Iran formally declared itself no longer bound by the agreement, while European signatories (UK, Germany, and France) triggered the snapback process to reimpose all UN and EU sanctions.

Experts warn that the fundamental trust deficit between Tehran and Western powers has created a policy deadlock. Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute notes that Israel seeks “absolute dominance rather than conventional security,” potentially ensuring “forever war” conditions. Researchers from multiple think tanks predict continued conflict throughout 2026 across economic, political, and possibly military dimensions.

Despite the grim outlook, diplomatic voices advocate for returning to the negotiating table through “small reciprocal steps” and multilateral engagement. China has consistently opposed unilateral coercive measures, while European analysts warn that without diplomatic reengagement, all parties risk perpetual confrontation with potentially catastrophic regional consequences.

A comprehensive report issued by prominent Chinese research institutions has raised urgent concerns regarding Japan’s escalating nuclear weapons aspirations, warning of substantial risks to global peace and the established international order. The study, collaboratively produced by the China Arms Control and Disarmament Association and the China Institute of Nuclear Industry Strategy, identifies what it characterizes as deliberate efforts by right-wing elements within Japan to undermine longstanding non-proliferation frameworks.

The document, formally titled ‘Nuclear Ambitions of Japan’s Right-Wing Forces: A Serious Threat to World Peace,’ specifically references recent controversial statements from high-level Japanese officials. These include Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s advocacy for revising the nation’s foundational Three Non-Nuclear Principles—which currently prohibit possession, production, and introduction of nuclear weapons onto Japanese territory—and security cabinet members’ explicit calls for domestic nuclear armament.

Technical analysis within the report indicates Japan maintains advanced nuclear infrastructure, including a complete nuclear fuel cycle and operational platforms theoretically capable of delivering nuclear payloads. The nation reportedly possesses both weapons-grade plutonium reserves and technical foundations for developing nuclear-powered submarines and aircraft carriers, according to senior engineers familiar with Japan’s capabilities.

The report emerges ahead of the critical 2026 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference scheduled at United Nations headquarters. Chinese experts contend that Japan’s nuclear positioning represents a calculated testing of international tolerance rather than isolated political rhetoric. The research institutions have issued a ten-point recommendation urging the international community, including the International Atomic Energy Agency, to enhance scrutiny of Japan’s nuclear materials and activities while demanding official clarification regarding controversial statements from Japanese leadership.

Drawing inspiration from its ancient maritime heritage, China continues to champion a diplomatic philosophy rooted in peaceful coexistence and mutual development. The legendary 15th-century voyages of Ming Dynasty navigator Zheng He, who commanded the world’s most powerful fleet across the Indian Ocean to more than 30 regions without territorial conquest, established a historical precedent for China’s contemporary global engagement.

President Xi Jinping has frequently invoked Zheng He’s expeditions as emblematic of China’s commitment to harmonious international relations. In a 2014 address, Xi emphasized that these historical missions ‘sowed the seeds of peace and friendship,’ countering narratives that equate national strength with expansionist ambitions. ‘The Chinese people don’t have the gene for invasion and hegemony in their blood,’ Xi stated, referencing an ancient Chinese maxim that ‘a warlike state would eventually perish however big it might be.’

This historical continuity finds modern expression in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which scholars identify as the contemporary manifestation of China’s enduring approach to international relations. Wang Youming of the China Institute of International Studies notes that from the ancient Silk Road to Zheng He’s treasure ships, China has consistently emphasized ‘peaceful interaction and mutual benefit, rather than expansion through force.’

At the third Belt and Road Forum in 2023, President Xi articulated this vision as building ‘an open, inclusive and interconnected world for common development.’ The initiative, now encompassing over 150 countries and 30 international organizations, represents what experts describe as a shift from exchange to shared responsibility in addressing global challenges.

The metaphor of maritime cooperation has evolved in China’s diplomatic discourse. While Zheng He’s treasure ships carried friendship across oceans, Xi now describes all nations as aboard ‘a giant ship on which their shared destiny hinges’ rather than ‘riding separately in some 190 small boats.’ This conceptual framework underscores the necessity of collective action in facing contemporary global challenges.

China’s commitment to peaceful development is constitutionally enshrined and demonstrated through initiatives like the Peace Ark hospital ship, which has provided medical services to 49 countries and treated over 370,000 people since 2010. The vessel’s Mission Harmony voyages, including the dramatic rescue of a Bangladeshi newborn named ‘Chin’ (meaning China in Bengali) in 2010, exemplify what scholars term China’s ‘people-centered approach’ to international cooperation.

As traditional and non-traditional security challenges intersect, China’s proposed frameworks—the BRI alongside the Global Development, Security, Civilization, and Governance Initiatives—offer practical mechanisms for translating the vision of a shared human future into concrete action, continuing a maritime tradition that began centuries ago.