分类： business

A sweeping risk-on rally swept through Asian equity markets on Thursday, with Tokyo’s benchmark index leading sharp gains across the region as two key catalysts — rising hopes for a negotiated end to the US-Iran conflict and a resurgent wave of artificial intelligence investment — lifted investor sentiment to multi-week highs.

The upward momentum followed a dramatic shift in geopolitical tone earlier this week, after US President Donald Trump announced that a deal to end hostilities between Washington and Tehran was within reach. Speaking to reporters Wednesday, Trump confirmed that constructive talks had taken place over the preceding 24 hours, noting that “it’s very possible that we’ll make a deal.” If Iran agrees to the terms already outlined, he said, the war would end immediately; a rejection would see US bombing resume at “a much higher level and intensity.”

US-based news outlet Axios later reported, citing two unnamed senior US officials, that both negotiating teams have edged close to finalizing a concise one-page memorandum of understanding. The draft agreement would end active hostilities, reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz, and establish a framework for follow-up negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. The Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that handles roughly one-fifth of the world’s daily crude oil supplies, has been effectively closed to commercial shipping since early March, tightening global energy markets and pushing oil prices sharply higher.

Iran has not yet formally accepted the US proposal. Foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei told local Iranian media that the offer remains “still under review,” while parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf — who has led Iran’s negotiation team — warned that Washington’s approach amounted to an attempt to “force us to surrender.” Still, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who mediated early exploratory talks hosted in Islamabad last month, said he remained “very hopeful” that a breakthrough could be reached.

The rising prospect of de-escalation triggered sharp swings across global commodity and financial markets this week. Oil prices, which fell roughly 10% over the preceding two trading days on hopes of the Hormuz strait reopening, held steady on Thursday: West Texas Intermediate traded flat at $95.08 per barrel, while Brent North Sea Crude edged up 0.1% to $101.32 per barrel. Lower energy price expectations have also eased persistent inflation concerns, lifting gold prices more than 3% in Wednesday’s session and driving a broad rally in bonds.

In equity markets, the positive geopolitical shift aligned with a fresh wave of investor enthusiasm for AI-related assets, building on record gains from Wall Street in the prior session. Strong quarterly earnings from leading US tech giants including Microsoft, Apple and Alphabet reignited buying pressure for technology stocks across Asia, amplifying the risk-on rally.

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 led regional gains, surging 5.7% to close at 62,915.87 as Japanese investors returned from an extended public holiday. SoftBank, Japan’s leading technology investment firm, rocketed more than 15% on the day, while key chip industry players Tokyo Electron and Advantest notched double-digit gains. In Seoul, the benchmark Kospi extended the prior day’s rally to close above the 7,000-point milestone for the first time in history, with Samsung continuing its upward march after recently crossing the $1 trillion market capitalization threshold. Major markets across Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore, Taipei, Wellington, Manila and Jakarta all posted solid gains on the day.

Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, noted that the confluence of positive catalysts created near-perfect conditions for a broad market rally. “Traders aggressively embraced the idea that the Iran war may finally be shifting from missile trajectories to negotiation tables, while the AI frenzy simultaneously poured jet fuel onto the risk rally,” he said. “The result was one of those rare sessions where nearly every macro domino fell in perfect sequence. Oil collapsed, bonds rallied, the dollar sank, gold exploded higher, and stocks surged.”

Japanese investors also remained focused on currency movements this week, amid persistent speculation that Japanese authorities have intervened in foreign exchange markets to prop up the yen, which has faced downward pressure from surging oil prices and safe-haven flows into the US dollar. The yen hit a 10-month high against the greenback on Wednesday, fuelling rumors of official support. Local Japanese media reported last week that the government spent between $32 billion and $38 billion buying yen in the market, citing data from the Bank of Japan. Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s top currency official, declined to comment on the speculation when asked by reporters Thursday. The dollar traded at 156.23 yen on Thursday, down slightly from 156.39 yen at the close of Wednesday’s session.

Australian Radio Network (ARN) Media’s board of directors faced intense scrutiny from disgruntled shareholders at its annual general meeting held in North Sydney on Thursday, as investors slammed leadership for a year of steep financial losses, a collapsing share price, and the high-profile split and subsequent legal battle with beloved breakfast radio hosts Kyle Sandilands and Jackie Henderson, known collectively as Kyle and Jackie O.

During the meeting, senior ARN executives laid out the scale of the company’s recent financial troubles, confirming that total annual revenue for the 12 months ending December fell 10% year-on-year to $285 million. Metro radio division revenue dropped by $28 million over the period, according to chief executive Michael Stephenson. Of that decline, he explained, just $6 million stemmed from broader industry headwinds in a tough advertising market, while the remaining $22 million came from advertisers pulling spending over brand safety concerns tied directly to the controversy surrounding Sandilands and Henderson. Regional revenue also dipped by $5.3 million, Stephenson noted, though it did not face the same brand safety-driven client exodus.

Stephenson framed the network’s decision to cut ties with the pair as a proactive step to protect ARN’s brand reputation, and he struck an optimistic tone on future revenue recovery. “Over time, we expect a significant percentage of the $26 million of revenue that was lost last year because of brand safety concerns to return, improving both our metro radio revenue and revenue share,” he said. While the board declined to comment in detail on the active legal dispute, Stephenson confirmed that the departure of the high-profile hosts could pave the way for the return of former advertisers that had withdrawn their spending.

ARN chairman Hamish McLennan later outlined the timeline of events that led to the show’s cancellation to shareholders, referencing the legal claims brought by Quasar Media (Sandilands’ company) and Henderson Media. McLennan confirmed that an on-air incident involving the two hosts took place on February 20, 2026. After the incident, Henderson took a paid leave of absence supported full by ARN management. On February 26, 2026, Henderson notified the network that she could no longer continue working alongside Sandilands, stating that direct contact with him had become untenable.

“The Company considered this a repudiation of her contract, on the basis that it was not possible for her to perform her core contractual requirement to deliver the ‘Kyle and Jackie O show’ and, as a result, her contract was terminated,” McLennan explained. Sandilands, who was ousted alongside Henderson, has since launched a lawsuit against his former employer ARN Media.

The network’s poor financial performance over the past year has hit shareholder value hard: ARN’s share price has plummeted 51% over the last 12 months to trade at just 26 cents, a drop that became a key point of criticism from investors at the AGM. Shareholders openly questioned the board about the ongoing share price decline and the missteps that led to the loss of one of radio’s most popular shows, paired with the costly pending litigation.

The Australian equities market has booked its most robust single-day gain since mid-April, fueled by market optimism triggered by new comments from former U.S. President Donald Trump that eased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Both the benchmark ASX 200 and the broader All Ordinaries notched double-digit percentage gains, alongside a four-year high for the Australian dollar, as leading banking and mining stocks powered the market uptick.

On the day, the ASX 200 climbed 112.10 points, a 1.30% jump that closed the index at 8796.60, while the All Ordinaries rose 112.80 points (1.27%) to settle at 9016.10. The Australian dollar also advanced to 72.47 U.S. cents, its highest level in four years. Despite the headline market rally, only five of the ASX’s 11 industry sectors finished the trading day in positive territory, with the country’s largest retail banks and major mining operators leading the upward charge.

Market analysts attributed the broad positive momentum to Trump’s announcement that he would pause Operation Freedom, a planned naval blockade of the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz. The waterway is one of the world’s most vital chokepoints for global energy shipments, and a blockade had threatened to disrupt international oil supplies and trigger a major global economic shock.

“Keeping the Strait open is critical, because a closure would stifle global energy supply and raise the risk of the global economy falling off a steep, damaging supply cliff,” noted Capital.com analyst Tim Rodda. “Still, markets are holding out hope that this worst-case outcome will be avoided — and crucially, that it won’t erode the exceptional corporate profits that have lifted Wall Street to recent record highs.”

Trump’s comments pulled global oil prices down 2% to $107 U.S. dollars per barrel, a shift that delivered immediate benefits to Australia’s major mining firms, which count energy costs among their largest operating expenses. On the ASX, BHP shares rose 3.05% to close at $56.39, Rio Tinto gained 2.30% to settle at $174.60, and Fortescue Metals added 3.15% to finish at $20.65. The falling oil prices hit Australia’s domestic energy sector, however: Woodside Petroleum shares slumped 2.66% to $31.84, Santos dipped 0.25% to $7.89, and Ampol fell 1.24% to close at $35.02.

Easing geopolitical tensions also lifted gold prices, which pushed above $4600 U.S. dollars per ounce, according to Vivek Dhar, head of commodities and sustainability at Commonwealth Bank. Dhar explained that gold futures have moved inversely to the intensity of Middle East tensions since the outbreak of regional conflict in late February, a dynamic that may seem counterintuitive to many investors.

“Gold is widely viewed as a safe-haven asset, so many would expect prices to rise when tensions spike, but the historical correlation between broad market risk and gold prices is actually very weak,” Dhar added.

Among the country’s major banking stocks, which also posted strong gains, Commonwealth Bank climbed 2.96% to $177.98, Westpac rose 3.48% to $38.94, National Australia Bank gained 2.77% to $40.03, and ANZ rose 3.12% to close at $37.07. Judo Bank also notched a 3.55% gain to $1.46 after the regional lender confirmed it remains on track to hit its full-year pre-tax profit guidance of $180 million to $190 million.

Not all stocks gained ground on the day, however. Leading consumer electronics retailer JB Hi-Fi saw its shares drop 6.28% to $72.98 after the company warned of significant rising component costs and ongoing stock availability shortages. The firm did report modest comparative sales growth for the March quarter: 4% growth for its core brand, and 2.5% growth for its subsidiary The Good Guys.

One of the day’s biggest single-stock gains came from infrastructure investor Infratil, whose shares surged 14.95% to $12.07 after the company announced that its 49.8%-owned data center subsidiary CDC had secured Australia’s largest ever data center contract, a 555MW deal that will drive years of future revenue growth.

The Australian dollar has surged to a four-year peak against the U.S. dollar, a rally driven by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent interest rate increase that has created clear winners and losers across the domestic economy, from cross-border travelers to mortgage-holding households.

After the RBA implemented a 25-basis point rate hike on Tuesday, pushing the official cash rate to 4.35%, the Australian dollar climbed to its highest level against the greenback since June 2020. As of this reporting, one Australian dollar purchases 72.48 U.S. cents, marking a significant upward shift for the commodity-linked currency.

Global X investment strategist Billy Leung explained that the Australian dollar’s momentum stems from the country’s unusual position as an outlier in global monetary policy. While most major developed economies have paused rate hikes and begun pricing in future cuts, Australia continues to tighten borrowing costs due to an unresolved inflation crisis that has persisted longer than many policymakers and analysts expected.

Unlike peer economies that cut rates more aggressively and held them lower for longer in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia now faces persistent domestic inflation pressures that have forced the central bank to act even as global inflation cools. The RBA could not look past the oil price volatility triggered by escalating tensions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, which have pushed crude prices above $110 a barrel and added to existing inflationary headwinds.

Current economic data backs the RBA’s hawkish stance: trimmed mean inflation is projected to rise back to 3.8% by June, real household spending grew 0.7% in the first quarter, and the national labor market has remained unexpectedly resilient. Tuesday’s rate increase marked the third consecutive hike in the RBA’s current tightening cycle, and opinion among economic experts remains divided on whether additional rate increases will be needed to bring inflation under control.

The RBA board’s vote on the hike reflected that division: eight of nine members supported lifting the cash rate, while one member advocated for holding rates steady at the previous 4.10% level. In a post-meeting statement, the board emphasized that inflation at 4.6% remains far above the central bank’s 2-3% target range, and left the door open for future policy tightening. The board added that it will closely monitor incoming economic data and shifting global economic conditions to guide future decisions.

“Having raised the cash rate three times, monetary policy is well placed to respond to developments and the board is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment,” the statement read. “It will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome.”

Leung added that another key factor driving the Australian dollar’s rally is the eroding yield advantage of the U.S. dollar. With the U.S. Federal Reserve holding rates steady and market expectations building for upcoming rate cuts, global investors searching for higher yield have increasingly turned to the few developed markets like Australia that are still offering attractive carry returns.

When combined with elevated global oil prices driven by Middle East tensions, the conditions for a rally by Australia’s commodity-linked currency, backed by a hawkish central bank, are nearly ideal, Leung noted. He also clarified a common misperception about the rally: the Australian dollar’s gain is not a sign of exceptional strength in the domestic Australian economy.

“The Aussie is not rallying because the domestic economy is booming,” Leung said. “It is rallying because the inflation problem most of the developed world believes has been dealt with remains very much alive in Australia, and the RBA has chosen to confront it directly.”

For consumers, the stronger dollar delivers immediate benefits for two key groups: Australians planning overseas travel, who will see their buying power increase when exchanging currency, and domestic importers, who will pay less for goods sourced from overseas. The flip side of the rate hike that drove the rally, however, is higher monthly mortgage repayments for millions of Australian households, adding to ongoing cost-of-living pressures across the country.

Over the past decade, Australian investors have dramatically expanded their exposure to global equity markets, with newly released official data showing total outbound investment surging to $4.5 trillion by the end of 2025. This marks a more than $2 trillion increase from the end of 2015, according to figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Of this total, foreign portfolio investment – which includes passive and active stakes in overseas public companies – reached $2.3 trillion in 2025, while direct investment (acquisitions of controlling stakes in foreign businesses) hit $1.2 trillion, up from just $570.2 billion a decade earlier.

Two core market factors have driven this massive capital outflow: consistent strong gains in U.S. equities and a 16% depreciation of the Australian dollar over the 10-year period. The ABS data confirms that between 2015 and 2025 alone, Australian investors added $364 billion in foreign portfolio equity holdings, boosted by the S&P 500’s threefold growth that amplified returns when converted back to local currency.

The United States has emerged as the overwhelming favorite destination for Australian foreign capital, peaking at 57.7% of total Australian outbound portfolio investment in 2024. Industry analysts point to multiple interconnected reasons for this preference, starting with structural limitations of Australia’s domestic market.

Morningstar market strategist Lochlan Halloway explained that Australia makes up just 2% of the total global equity market by capitalization, but for decades local investors have held a disproportionate share of their portfolios in domestic assets. “It’s not outright a bad thing that Australian investors are thinking a little more globally,” Halloway noted. “We were already overindexed to domestic equities, and this shift represents a sensible balancing out from a diversification perspective.”

Beyond portfolio rebalancing, the U.S. market offers unique advantages that draw Australian capital. “It’s the world’s largest, most liquid market, home to hundreds of high-quality global businesses, backed by relatively stable institutions and strong rule of law,” Halloway said. He added that the earnings growth outlook for U.S. equities, particularly in the fast-expanding technology sector, is more attractive than that of Australian equities, which are heavily concentrated in financials and commodities.

Superannuation retirement funds have been the primary engine behind this trend, accounting for more than 60% of net foreign equity purchases in five of the last seven years. The ABS itself endorses this shift toward global diversification, warning that overreliance on domestic assets leaves Australian investors exposed to unnecessary risk.

“Limiting portfolios to domestic assets would exclude access to major high-growth global sectors—such as technology, innovative healthcare, and advanced manufacturing,” the ABS said in its analysis. “It would also leave investors vulnerable to sector-specific shocks, swings in global commodity prices, and local economic downturns that could be mitigated through global exposure.”

Halloway emphasized that the push into global markets does not signal a lack of investment opportunity within Australia, noting that domestic assets such as dividend-paying equities with franking credits remain attractive to many local investors who prefer the familiarity of the home market. Even so, he reiterated that diversification is a core principle of resilient long-term investing. “Diversification is the only free lunch in investing, it’s probably the most important attribute for your investment portfolio,” he said. “The argument for expanding exposure beyond Australia’s borders remains very strong.”

Australia’s stretched mortgage holders are bracing for more financial pain after top economists warned that three consecutive Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate hikes have only addressed domestic inflationary pressures, leaving the country exposed to a soaring oil price shock sparked by the US-Iran conflict that could force even more aggressive monetary policy tightening.

In a stark warning to Australian households already grappling with rising living costs, Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis explained that the RBA’s 2026 rate hiking cycle was designed solely to cool domestic demand-driven inflation, and did not account for the global energy price volatility triggered by the escalating Middle Eastern conflict.

“Before the war broke out, Australia’s economy was already contending with persistently high inflation, and the RBA moved to raise rates to lean against that pressure,” Ellis said. “Three back-to-back hikes had largely put domestic inflation on a path to cooling, but that entire calculus shifted once the conflict began.”

When the conflict erupted, Australia’s headline inflation already sat at 3.7% – above the RBA’s statutory 2-3% target range. Following its latest two-day policy meeting this week, the RBA announced a further 25 basis point rate increase, lifting the official cash rate to 4.35%. This move fully erases the three rate cuts rolled out in 2025, bringing borrowing costs to their highest level in more than a decade.

In its post-meeting statement, the RBA board noted that current inflation remains elevated at 4.6%, far outside its target range, and signaled that additional rate hikes remain on the table. The board added it would closely monitor incoming economic data and evolving global conditions to guide future policy decisions.

Global oil prices have skyrocketed in recent weeks amid the Middle East crisis, jumping from roughly $US56 per barrel in January, before the conflict began, to a volatile range of $US100 to $US110 per barrel – a jump that translates directly to higher fuel costs for Australian consumers. Industry estimates show every $US10 per barrel increase adds 10 Australian cents to every liter of fuel at the pump, hitting household transport budgets and raising operational costs for businesses across every sector.

Ellis noted that the RBA has now shifted its focus to global-driven inflation pressures, particularly how rising fuel, diesel and fertilizer prices flow through to broader consumer prices across the Australian economy. “Our assessment is that these price pressures are already front-loaded and extensive – we’re already seeing formal notifications of price hikes for a wide range of goods and services,” she said. “For this reason, we expect further rate hikes from the RBA from here.”

National Australia Bank chief economist Sally Auld shares Ellis’s hawkish outlook, projecting an additional 25 basis point hike in June that would push the official cash rate to 4.60%. “The RBA continues to face the core challenge of already above-target inflation, and the second-round inflationary pressures from higher oil prices will flow through to the broader economy relatively quickly,” Auld explained.

Not all major bank economists agree on the path forward, however. Commonwealth Bank analysts forecast the RBA will hold rates steady at 4.35% through the end of 2026, arguing that current monetary policy settings are already “well placed” to cool inflation over time.

While the RBA has historically looked past one-off oil price shocks when setting policy, the central bank has grown increasingly concerned about second-order inflation effects, where businesses pass higher energy and input costs directly on to consumers. RBA governor Michele Bullock defended businesses’ right to pass through higher costs, noting “It is not unreasonable for firms because they are seeing their cost basis rise …. It is not unreasonable for them to want to recover their costs. The alternative is they can’t absorb the costs and they might end up going bust, and that isn’t good either.”

Ellis said she was surprised by Bullock’s framing, arguing that effectively giving businesses the green light to pass through higher costs will only entrench higher inflation and force the RBA to implement even sharper rate hikes down the line, deepening the financial pressure on Australian households already struggling with mortgage repayments and cost-of-living increases.

Two of Australia’s most widely used consumer service brands have deepened their collaborative ties, opening a new pathway for regular customers to turn daily spending into future travel. Qantas and Uber have announced an expansion of their long-running loyalty partnership, allowing Australians to accumulate Qantas Frequent Flyer points through routine takeaway orders and everyday ride-hailing trips, a shift that moves beyond the pair’s original airport-exclusive rewards arrangement.

Under the updated terms of the deal, Uber One subscribers who link their Qantas Frequent Flyer accounts can now earn points on two new categories of Uber services for the first time. For eligible Uber Eats restaurant delivery orders that meet a $20 minimum spend, members earn one Qantas Point for every $2 spent. For rides booked through Uber’s premium tiers – Comfort, Comfort Electric, and Black – members earn one Qantas Point per $1 spent.

The expansion taps into a massive existing market for on-demand delivery in Australia. Since Uber Eats launched its domestic operations in 2016, Australian users have placed more than one billion orders on the platform, with millions of orders completed across the country every week. This scale makes everyday food delivery a fertile new ground for driving frequent flyer point accumulation for Qantas members.

Notably, the original benefits of the partnership remain in place for all Qantas Frequent Flyer members, regardless of whether they hold an Uber One subscription. All members still qualify for up to one Qantas Point per $1 spent on eligible rides to and from Australian airports, the core offering of the original partnership that launched years prior.

Andrew Glance, chief executive of Qantas Loyalty, noted that Uber has long been a go-to service for Qantas members traveling to and from airports. “With millions of Uber Eats orders made across Australia every week, we are now rewarding members for everything from midweek dinners to their daily commute,” Glance explained. “By bringing the Uber Eats ecosystem into the fold, we’re also helping our members reach their next reward even faster.”

Ed Kitchen, managing director of Uber Eats Australia and New Zealand, framed the expansion as a major milestone in the two companies’ ongoing relationship. “Expanding our partnership with Qantas Frequent Flyer to include Uber Eats is an exciting step forward for our Uber One members,” Kitchen said. “Whether it’s getting across town or enjoying a meal at home, Australians rely on Uber for everyday moments, and now Uber One members can be rewarded for more of them. By bringing rides and delivery together, we’re creating a more connected experience that helps members earn Qantas Points across more of their interactions with Uber.”

Industry observers note the deal is a win-win for both companies: it increases customer retention for Uber One subscriptions, while giving Qantas more touchpoints to keep its frequent Flyer program engaged with everyday consumer spending, boosting the program’s relevance for users who may not travel frequently.