Global Pulse

分类： business

  • EU airline industry fears fuel shortages if Strait of Hormuz stays closed

    EU airline industry fears fuel shortages if Strait of Hormuz stays closed

    Europe’s leading aviation industry trade group has issued an urgent alert that the continent could face a widespread, systemic jet fuel shortage within three weeks if normal, stable passage through the strategic Strait of Hormuz is not restored.

    Airports Council International (ACI) Europe, which represents hundreds of airports across the continent, revealed in a formal letter dated April 9 to the European Union’s energy and tourism commissioners that member organizations are growing increasingly alarmed over jet fuel accessibility as the peak summer travel and tourism season approaches. Smaller regional airports, the group emphasizes, face particularly severe vulnerability to any supply disruption.

    The Persian Gulf, which the Strait of Hormuz connects to global shipping lanes, is the single largest source of Europe’s jet fuel imports, supplying roughly half of the continent’s total incoming volume. In the letter, ACI Europe Director-General Olivier Jankovec warned that a sudden supply crunch would trigger severe disruptions to airport operations and cross-continental air connectivity. These disruptions, he added, would carry sharp economic risks for local communities across the bloc and for the European economy as a whole.

    “At this stage, we understand that if the passage through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume in any significant and stable way within the next three weeks, systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU,” Jankovec wrote.

    The warning comes amid mounting industry pressure already driven by fuel supply uncertainty. Airlines around the globe have already responded to tightening fuel outlooks by slashing scheduled flight capacity and raising passenger surcharges to offset higher costs. Last week, the benchmark European jet fuel price hit an unprecedented all-time high of $1,838 per tonne — more than double the $831 per tonne recorded before the outbreak of the latest Iran conflict.

    Jankovec pushed back against the idea that market forces alone can resolve the looming crisis, arguing that “relying on market forces and adaptation alone is not an option.” He also criticized the European Union for lacking a bloc-wide framework to assess and monitor jet fuel production and supply levels.

    To head off the shortage, ACI Europe has put forward a series of policy demands: the bloc should pursue collective jet fuel purchasing to stabilize supplies and prices, and temporarily suspend existing restrictions and regulatory barriers on jet fuel imports. The trade group also used the crisis to argue for accelerated, expanded support for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production, noting that the current crisis will likely keep conventional jet fuel prices elevated over the medium to long term, making scalable affordable SAF a critical long-term solution for European aviation.

    Jankovec added that smaller regional airports — those handling fewer than one million passengers annually — were already facing major viability challenges before the threat of fuel shortages emerged. The current crisis, he warned, could push these already fragile facilities into greater instability, threatening the economic well-being of local communities and undermining broader European social and economic cohesion.

    The stakes of any prolonged disruption are high for the European economy: commercial air travel contributes more than €851 billion to the bloc’s annual GDP and supports 14 million jobs across the continent, according to industry data. The letter was first reported by the Financial Times following its submission.

  • US inflation jumps to highest level in almost two years

    US inflation jumps to highest level in almost two years

    The United States saw inflation accelerate sharply in March, reaching its highest pace in almost two years, as rising energy costs spurred by Middle East geopolitical tensions began to ripple through the broader national economy, according to the latest official data.

    The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday that the consumer price index (CPI), a key benchmark for inflation, rose 3.3% year-over-year last month, up from a 2.4% annual gain recorded in February. This abrupt jump, which economists had largely anticipated, represents one of the most significant single-month shifts in inflation since 2022, when the global economy grappled with a historic energy shock following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

    The report pins March’s unexpected inflation acceleration on a dramatic spike in fuel prices, driven by disruptions to oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz linked to the ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran. From February to March, gasoline prices surged by 21.2% — the steepest one-month increase recorded since the federal government began tracking this metric in 1967. Fuel oil prices saw an even more dramatic jump, climbing more than 30% month-over-month to mark the largest surge since February 2000.

    The burden of these soaring energy costs has fallen disproportionately on regions that already faced elevated fuel prices, such as the state of California. Data from the American Automobile Association (AAA) released Thursday puts the average price of a gallon of regular gasoline in California at $5.93, far above the current national average of $4.16.

    For everyday commuters and workers who rely on personal vehicles to make a living, the price jump has upended monthly household budgets. Annel Villegas, a 23-year-old truck driver, described the current cost of fuel as “terrible”, emphasizing her frustration with strong language. “I drive a truck, so I fill it up every half tank, and now it’s like, $70 (£52), $80,” Villegas explained. She said she has already cut back on non-essential driving to offset costs, but acknowledged that many trips are unavoidable. “I have to do what I have to do to live …. I’m just dealing with whatever it brings to me – so, paying more,” she added.

    This new inflation data complicates the outlook for U.S. monetary policy, which has focused on taming price growth over the past three years. The geopolitical origins of this current inflation surge also signal ongoing global economic uncertainty, as energy market disruptions continue to drive cost-of-living increases for households across the country.

  • Over 800 events to be staged at Xuhui West Bund in 2026

    Over 800 events to be staged at Xuhui West Bund in 2026

    Shanghai’s iconic Xuhui West Bund, one of China’s fastest-growing mixed-use urban hubs, is set to host more than 800 events spanning culture, tourism, commerce, sports and exhibitions across 2026, officials announced during a recent media briefing held at the district’s West Bund Orbit venue.

    Deputy General Manager Chen Anda of Shanghai West Bund Development Group Co. shared details of the year’s headline event lineup, kicking off with the popular Jazz Spring West Bund music festival scheduled for the May Day national holiday. Later in the year, the district will welcome the Shanghai stop of the global FISE World Series extreme sports competition alongside a city-wide urban sports carnival in October, concluding with the annual West Bund Art & Design Week in November, a major draw for international art collectors and creative industry professionals.

    In addition to the packed events calendar, the district is accelerating its infrastructure and commercial expansion. West Bund Central’s Phase II commercial complex is on track to open to the public by the end of April 2026. The multi-purpose development integrates premium retail, Grade-A office space, residential units and open public gathering areas, and will introduce a curated collection of first-of-their-kind stores for the Chinese market. Notable incoming outlets include the Asia Pacific flagship location for Swiss luxury chocolate brand Läderach, China’s first full-series Issey Miyake flagship store, and the first Leica House to launch on the Chinese mainland.

    Further public space development is also underway: the western portion of the new West Bund Nature Art Park will open to visitors in the first half of 2026, while construction on the park’s eastern section continues in parallel. When fully completed, the park will serve as a large integrated public green space that blends recreational sports facilities, open-air art installations and native ecological landscaping.

    Chen also highlighted the hub’s explosive growth over the past five years. Between 2021 and 2025, the number of annual events hosted at Xuhui West Bund surged from 100 to more than 400, while annual visitor numbers skyrocketed from 3.71 million to 21 million, marking a more than five-fold increase in just five years.

    Beyond cultural and commercial development, Xuhui West Bund has also emerged as a leading national hub for artificial intelligence innovation. Yang Jingjing, another deputy general manager of Shanghai West Bund Development Group Co., noted that the Shanghai Foundation Model Innovation Center, launched less than three years ago, has already expanded to occupy more than 50,000 square meters of dedicated office and incubation space, and currently supports more than 200 early-stage AI-focused enterprises through its incubation program.

  • Kenya anticipates export boom as it awaits crucial tax waiver

    Kenya anticipates export boom as it awaits crucial tax waiver

    Across Kenya’s vibrant agricultural export sector, anticipation has reached a fever pitch as May 1 approaches — the date when China will implement a sweeping zero-tariff policy covering a broad range of eligible African exports. Industry leaders and producers across the country are framing this policy shift as an unprecedented opportunity that could reshape long-standing trade dynamics between Africa and the world’s second-largest economy, opening access to a massive, fast-evolving consumer market that many had only partially tapped into before.

    On March 23, Kenya took its first formal step under the new framework, flagging off an inaugural zero-tariff consignment from the Standard Gauge Railway Nairobi Terminus. According to the country’s Ministry of Investments, Trade and Industry, the shipment included 54 containers loaded with fresh avocados, processed avocado oil, roasted Kenyan coffee, and green beans, bound for the Port of Mombasa before sailing for China. This symbolic departure marked the start of what many hope will be a new era of bilateral trade between the two nations.

    Joel Mwiti Kobia, managing director of Kenyan exporter Nutri Nuts and Fruits, noted that shifting consumer trends in China have already created ideal conditions for African agricultural products to thrive. China’s rapidly expanding middle class, driven by rising incomes, rapid urbanization, and growing public awareness of health and nutrition, is increasingly seeking out premium, nutrient-dense food products. “African products, often positioned as natural, organic, and sustainably sourced, are perfectly placed to meet this growing demand,” Kobia explained.

    Kobia’s own company has already seen explosive growth in Chinese demand for its products, even before the zero-tariff policy took effect. When Nutri Nuts and Fruits began exporting macadamia nuts to China in 2021, it shipped just one 16-metric-ton container. By 2025, annual exports had surged to 120 tons, a clear reflection of how quickly Chinese consumer appetite for Kenyan agricultural goods has grown. With import tariffs set to drop from 15 percent to zero, Kobia projects that exports will more than double again in the near term, potentially hitting 250 tons annually. Beyond boosting corporate revenue, he added, the growth will create new jobs in local processing facilities and raise household incomes for smallholder farmers across Kenya’s production belts.

    Margaret Njoki, head of commercial for fresh and frozen produce at Vertical Agro Group, echoed that optimism, particularly for Kenya’s fast-growing avocado sector. Her company became the first Kenyan firm to export frozen avocados to China in 2021, followed by fresh avocado shipments in 2022. What started as a cautious, small-scale entry into an unfamiliar new market has quickly transformed into a major growth stream, as Chinese demand for Kenyan avocados has skyrocketed over just a few years.

    Currently, Vertical Agro Group exports dozens of containers of avocados to China during peak production season, but Njoki said the real industry breakthrough will come once zero tariffs are implemented. “Right now, we compete with established suppliers from Peru and Mexico, but lower tariffs will let us offer more competitive pricing, allowing us to grow both the volume and quality of our exports to China,” she said. Like Kobia, she emphasized that the benefits will spread across the entire avocado value chain: more farmers will be incentivized to expand avocado production, creating new employment opportunities and lifting rural incomes across the country.

    Even Kenyan tea producers, who have long been sidelined from the Chinese market despite Kenya’s status as one of Africa’s largest tea exporters, are expressing newfound optimism. For decades, Kenya’s top tea export destinations have been European nations and South Asian markets such as Pakistan, with price competitiveness keeping most producers out of China’s large consumer market. That could soon change, according to Kelvin Mbugi of Kenya Tea Packers Limited.

    “Currently, we cannot meaningfully enter the Chinese market because our prices are not competitive,” Mbugu explained. “But with zero tariffs, we will not only be able to deliver our high-quality Kenyan tea — we will also gain a clear pricing advantage.” Kenyan tea exporters are already positioning specialty, health-focused teas to capture Chinese consumer interest: products such as antioxidant-rich purple tea and anti-aging marketed white tea align perfectly with the growing preference for wellness-oriented products among China’s middle class. While the market is still in early stages of development, Mbugi projects that annual Kenyan tea exports to China could gradually climb to 100 tons as consumer awareness grows.

    For larger established exporters such as Kenya Nut Company Limited, the zero-tariff policy opens the door to a strategic shift beyond low-margin bulk commodity exports, toward higher-value branded finished products. Currently, the company exports premium macadamia nuts, dried fruits, and coffee to major global markets, and executives say zero tariffs will make it easier to pursue strategic partnerships to build market share in China’s premium retail segment. Instead of shipping raw unprocessed produce, the company plans to focus on value-added goods such as roasted nuts, packaged healthy snacks, and specialty coffee — products tailored to meet the demands of China’s growing upscale consumer market.

    The opportunities created by the new policy are not limited to traditional food and agricultural exports either. Smaller manufacturers are already exploring entry into China with niche specialty products. Irene Nzovo, a producer of pet food including beef hide dog chews and camel-derived pet products, already has a strong foothold in European and U.S. markets, and said zero tariffs will remove a key barrier to scaling up supplies and reaching more Chinese customers.

    The zero-tariff policy covers 53 African countries that maintain diplomatic relations with China. By eliminating import duties, the framework is designed to deliver mutual benefits: it will lower retail prices for Chinese consumers while boosting the competitiveness of African goods and driving growth in African export volumes.

    Still, industry leaders have highlighted key steps Kenya must take to fully capitalize on the opportunity. Erick Rutto, president of the Kenya National Chamber of Commerce and Industry, emphasized that smallholder farmers and new exporters need targeted training to help them meet China’s strict sanitary and phytosanitary standards, which are required to access the Chinese market. Rutto also called for closer collaboration between the private sector and financial institutions, to make affordable financing accessible to exporters looking to scale up production and increase bulk export capacity.

  • China’s car exports surge as expectations grow for EV pivot on Iran war energy shock

    China’s car exports surge as expectations grow for EV pivot on Iran war energy shock

    Against a backdrop of softening domestic auto demand and shifting global energy markets, China’s passenger car export sector delivered explosive growth in March, data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) released Friday shows. Domestic automakers’ aggressive global expansion strategy has driven this sharp uptick, with new energy vehicles (NEVs) leading the charge amid growing consumer interest triggered by volatile fuel prices tied to international conflict.

    Last month, total passenger car exports hit approximately 748,000 units, marking an 82.4% jump from the same period in 2023 and a notable increase from February’s 586,000-unit total. The growth was even more dramatic for new energy passenger vehicles, which include pure battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid models. NEV exports soared more than 140% year-on-year to 363,000 units in March, rising 31% from February’s export volume of around 276,000 units.

    Leading domestic automakers, including industry giants BYD and Geely Auto, have ramped up their global outreach in recent quarters, investing heavily in new production facilities outside China and expanding distribution networks across emerging and established markets alike. To date, Chinese auto brands have built meaningful market share across Europe, Latin America, and Southeast Asia, with analysts noting geopolitical developments are poised to further accelerate adoption.

    The ongoing conflict in Iran has sent ripples through global energy markets, pushing fuel prices higher across many regions. While the full impact of this energy shock has not yet been reflected in March’s trade data, industry experts say it has already shifted consumer attitudes toward electric vehicles.

    “In many markets that are structurally well suited for EV adoption, uptake has remained sluggish simply because consumers lacked urgency to make the switch,” explained Chris Liu, a Shanghai-based senior analyst at technology and industry advisory firm Omdia. “A sharp, sustained rise in fuel prices changes that calculation entirely.”

    The push into overseas markets comes at a moment when China’s domestic auto market is facing notable headwinds. This year, the Chinese government rolled back support programs designed to encourage NEV adoption, while cutthroat price competition across domestic brands and a prolonged slump in the real estate sector have eroded consumer willingness to make large-ticket purchases like new vehicles.

    CAAM data confirms that domestic passenger car sales fell 19.2% year-on-year in March, dropping to just under 1.7 million units. That marks the fifth consecutive month of year-over-year declines for domestic sales, putting pressure on automakers to offset slack at home with international growth.

    However, industry analysts remain optimistic about the long-term outlook for Chinese automakers, arguing that strong export growth is more than sufficient to cushion the blow from temporary domestic weakness. “For the overall industry, the overseas market’s sales volume growth is more than enough to offset domestic decline on a full-year basis,” said Paul Gong, head of China autos research at UBS Investment Bank. Gong predicts that total annual passenger car exports by Chinese automakers could grow by 20% or more compared to 2023, a trend that will reshape the global auto landscape for years to come.

  • This coat cost $248 in illegal tariffs. Will he ever get the money back?

    This coat cost $248 in illegal tariffs. Will he ever get the money back?

    When Massachusetts personal trainer Alex Grossomanides ordered a French down jacket last year, he thought he had locked in a solid deal. That excitement quickly faded when a $400 bill for tariffs and processing fees landed in his inbox — a charge that came close to matching the purchase price of the coat itself. The unexpected cost stemmed from a little-known detail: the parka was manufactured in Myanmar, which at the time fell under a 40% US tariff rate, adding $248.04 in duties alone. Months later, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the controversial 40% tariff and dozens of other levies first introduced by former President Donald Trump, triggering what is set to become the largest tariff refund program in U.S. history. But even as authorities prepare to launch the repayment process, thousands of consumers and small business owners like Grossomanides fear they will never see their money returned.

    The court’s ruling only extends eligibility for refunds to importers who paid the duties directly to U.S. Customs. This narrow scope excludes the vast majority of people who ultimately bore the cost of the tariffs through indirect channels: higher retail prices, hidden processing fees, and supply chain markups. Grossomanides, who paid his tariff through global shipping firm DHL, says he wants to believe he will recoup his funds, but he has received no communication from the company and is not optimistic. “They should be refunding people,” the 37-year-old said. “It’s all my money and I took the hit for it, which I don’t think is fair.”

    In March, the U.S. Court of International Trade ordered U.S. Customs and Border Protection to return the more than $160 billion in duties the federal government collected from the invalidated tariffs, opening the door for roughly 330,000 direct importers to claim back at least a portion of their costs. Fears that the Biden administration would challenge the court order have not come to pass, and customs officials working on the program say the refund portal is scheduled to go live this month, with a progress update due to the Court of International Trade on April 14. Even so, economic analysts warn that fully reversing the financial damage of the tariffs is functionally impossible. Multiple independent studies confirm that most importers already passed the bulk of tariff costs on to consumers in the form of higher prices — a cost shift that the court’s ruling does nothing to address.

    For small businesses across the country, the pain is particularly acute. Sue Johnson, owner of Sue Johnson Lamps, a small lighting design firm based in Berkeley, California, says her business suffered a major blow when the tariffs forced her mica supplier to double the price of the raw material she uses for her Art Deco-inspired lamp designs. Despite the Supreme Court ruling, Johnson says she has no expectation of receiving any compensation for the extra costs she absorbed. “Maybe big direct importers will get repaid, but I have no hope they’re going to refund me,” she said.

    Small importers note that the issue is far more complex than the refund program acknowledges. While many raised prices to offset tariff costs, most could not raise them enough to cover the full expense, eating into already thin profit margins. Beyond direct duty costs, the tariffs triggered a cascade of secondary financial harm: many small businesses took on high-interest debt to cover unexpected duty bills, lost sales from price-sensitive customers, and spent thousands of dollars on administrative work just to navigate the claims process. Kacie Wright, who works for Houghton Horns, a small Texas-based importer of musical instruments, told a forum hosted by small business advocacy group We Pay the Tariffs that even if her firm ultimately receives a refund, it will not make the business whole. “Just making sure our business was lined up to receive a refund has been costly, requiring more than six months of back-and-forth with customs officials to properly register in the agency’s online system,” Wright explained.

    Jared Slipman, chair of the tax department at law firm Obermayer, which advises dozens of small businesses on the refund process, says U.S. Customs has placed the full burden of gathering documentation and filing claims on the claimants themselves. For many small businesses, Slipman says, the administrative requirements are so burdensome that many will conclude the potential payout is not worth the time and cost of applying. Other businesses, he predicts, will be forced to file additional litigation just to recoup the funds they are owed. Most of all, Slipman says, ordinary consumers get the worst end of the deal. “It may very well be the case that this is an orchestrated theft from the American consumer… and that would be very unfortunate,” Slipman said.

    For consumers like James Tak, a 41-year-old Washington resident who paid a $24 tariff fee to UPS last year when he received a shipment of video games as a gift from a friend in Japan, even small charges add up. Tak says he understands that processing refunds for millions of indirect payers would be a logistical nightmare, but he still believes he is owed his money back. “I just think it’s money I shouldn’t have to pay,” Tak said.

    A small number of shipping firms, including global logistics giant FedEx, have publicly stated they intend to pass any refunds they receive back to the consumers and small businesses that originally paid the charges. But most importers have issued only vague, limited promises, especially for firms that passed tariff costs through to consumers as general price hikes rather than separate line-item charges. The dispute over unclaimed refunds has already sparked a wave of class-action lawsuits against major U.S. retailers and brands, including warehouse club Costco, eyewear maker EssilorLuxottica (parent company of Ray-Ban), and activewear brand Fabletics, founded by actress Kate Hudson. Fabletics previously broke out tariff charges as a separate line item on customer receipts, leading plaintiffs to accuse the firm of “unjust enrichment” — collecting extra tariff costs from customers and now standing to collect the same funds again from the federal government.

    Adrian Bacon, head of litigation at the Law Offices of Todd Friedman, which brought the class-action suit against Fabletics and is investigating multiple other firms, says while government watchdogs like the Federal Trade Commission typically handle consumer protection issues, the involvement of federal trade policy means private legal action is the only available avenue to force companies to pass refunds on to consumers. That has not stopped current Trump administration officials from weighing in on the debate. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer last month called on companies that receive “windfall” refunds to pass the money on to workers in the form of performance bonuses. Last February, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cast doubt on the likelihood that ordinary consumers would ever see any of the refund money. “I got a feeling the American people won’t see it,” Bessent said.

  • Australian shares secure biggest weekly gain since 2022 despite market dip

    Australian shares secure biggest weekly gain since 2022 despite market dip

    Australia’s benchmark stock index has pulled off a remarkable milestone this week, logging its strongest weekly performance in more than two years even as lingering geopolitical instability kept market sentiment cautious through Friday’s trading session. The S&P/ASX 200 edged down 12.60 points, or 0.14%, to close at 8,960.60 on Friday, while the broader All Ordinaries index also slipped by a matching 0.14% to settle at 9,155.80. Despite the single-day pullback, the benchmark ASX 200 notched a 4.2% weekly gain that leaves it just 250 points shy of its all-time record high of 9,202.

    Market analyst Tony Sycamore notes that the monthly gain for April currently sits at 5.55%, which has erased 70% of the steep losses the index suffered during the market downturn in March. That recovery marks a notable turnaround following the sharp contraction Australian equities saw just one month prior.

    On Friday, only three out of the Australian exchange’s 11 major sectors finished the trading day in positive territory. The real estate sector led the gains, climbing 0.88% overall, with Vicinity Centres posting a 3.2% rise to close at $2.56. Utilities and financials followed the real estate sector in positive performance. Among Australia’s big four retail banks, results were mixed: National Australia Bank (NAB) added 0.31% after announcing its second fixed-rate mortgage hike in two weeks, Commonwealth Bank of Australia rose 0.47%, Westpac Banking Corporation gained 0.28% after positioning itself as the country’s lowest-cost fixed-rate lender, and Australia and New Zealand Banking Group edged up 0.23%.

    The information technology sector was the day’s poorest performer, with multiple major stocks posting notable declines. Logistics software firm WiseTech Global fell 2.6% to $37.61, cloud accounting platform Xero dropped 2.7% to $71.46, and Life360 slipped 3.3% to $19.48 shortly after unveiling workforce cuts as part of a restructuring to align its operations with artificial intelligence integration.

    Geopolitical uncertainty tied to Middle East tensions remains the primary driver of market volatility, analysts confirm. While a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran was announced on April 8, ongoing reports of military strikes in Lebanon and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil chokepoint, have kept traders on edge.

    The uncertain outlook has hit energy sector stocks, with Whitehaven Coal falling 3.2% to $8.12 and Woodside Energy dipping 0.2% to $33.29. Despite weak energy equities, concerns over the durability of the ceasefire have pushed crude oil prices higher: Brent Crude edged up 0.8% to trade at US$96.72 per barrel.

    “Oil initially fell sharply when the ceasefire was announced, as traders ruled out the most severe supply disruption scenarios,” explained market analyst Daniela Hathorn. “But prices have since rebounded as doubts about how long the agreement will hold have grown.”

    Amid the broader market volatility, safe-haven assets continued to see steady gains, with gold climbing 0.06% to hit US$4,766.17 per ounce. The Australian dollar was last trading at 70.86 U.S. cents.

  • Croatian fishermen feel the strain after Iran war ramps up fuel prices

    Croatian fishermen feel the strain after Iran war ramps up fuel prices

    Along the sun-drenched Adriatic coast of Croatia, where turquoise waters meet rolling Istrian peninsulas, 55-year-old fisherman Marijan Jakopovic continues the daily routine he has kept for three decades: readying his vessel and casting nets as dusk falls. But this year, the generational trade he inherited has grown more punishing than ever, as cascading crises driven by geopolitical conflict push Croatia’s small-scale commercial fishing sector toward collapse.

    The root of the latest crisis traces back to the ongoing war in Iran, which has sent global energy prices soaring. For Croatia’s fishermen, who rely on discounted “blue diesel” reserved exclusively for agricultural and maritime fishing work, the spike has been staggering: official data shows the price of this specialized fuel jumped 70% in just one month, climbing from €0.80 ($0.94) per liter on March 8 to €1.36 ($1.59) per liter by April 7. While the Croatian government imposed an emergency temporary price cap to stem the surge, senior Ministry of Economy official Vedran Spehar confirmed that even with intervention, prices have risen dramatically; without government action, Spehar noted, blue diesel would have hit at least €2 ($2.34) per liter, though state intervention did prevent widespread supply shortages.

    Croatia, which joined the European Union in 2013 and adopted the euro as its currency in 2023, was already grappling with steep economic pressure long before the latest Iran-driven fuel spike. The economic fallout from the war in Ukraine pushed energy and food costs upward across the bloc, and Croatia currently holds the unenviable title of having the EU’s highest annual inflation rate at 4.8%. The euro adoption transition itself also coincided with broad-based price increases across nearly every domestic sector, squeezing household and business budgets alike.

    For fishermen like Jakopovic, the fuel price surge is the final straw added to a web of long-standing challenges that have eroded profit margins for years. As an EU member, Croatia adheres to the bloc’s strict sustainable fishing regulations, which include seasonal catch bans, species-specific limits, and large protected marine zones designed to reverse declining fish populations and preserve endangered species. While these rules are critical for long-term ecological health, they have forced commercial fishermen to travel much farther from shore to reach legal fishing grounds, increasing their time at sea and overall fuel consumption—creating a vicious cycle of rising costs that many can no longer outrun.

    Compounding these structural pressures is the influx of cheap frozen seafood imports that have undercut domestic fishermen’s pricing, all while Croatia’s booming coastal tourism industry, which drew more than 20 million visitors in 2023, has failed to translate to higher earnings for local fishing crews. Even though local fishermen are the primary suppliers of fresh fish to the restaurants and markets that cater to summer tourists, their operating costs now far outpace the revenue they earn from their catch. Jakopovic explains that depending on vessel size, some fishermen now spend up to 70% of their total gross income on fuel alone, before covering expenses for crew wages, boat maintenance, and fishing equipment.

    With costs spiraling, fishermen are warning that a further escalation of the Iran conflict, which could lead to another round of fuel price surges if planned ceasefire talks fail, would push many operations into insolvency. “This is turning into an almost hopeless situation,” Jakopovic says of his small Lanisce village fishing community on the Istrian Peninsula. “We don’t know how much longer we will be able to keep working.”

    The ripple effects of the crisis are already set to impact consumers across Croatia, with higher fresh fish prices likely to hit markets and restaurants in 2024. Almira Raimovic, a former fisherman turned vendor at Pula’s central market, who now repurposed her old fishing boat for more profitable tourist excursions, says higher fuel costs will force fishermen to pass price increases up the supply chain. She predicts that Mediterranean consumers, who have long centered fresh seafood in their diets, will shift their purchasing habits toward cheaper small species like sardines and anchovies as premium fresh catches become unaffordable.

    Raimovic emphasizes that the impact will extend far beyond the fishing sector, adding to already high living costs across the country: “Rising fuel prices will affect everyone, inflating the cost of living and of food across all sectors, not just fishing.”

    The crisis is not unique to Croatia: neighboring countries in the Adriatic region have also faced similar pressure on their fishing industries, even with state subsidies and price caps in place to offset fuel costs. For thousands of Croatian fishermen whose families have worked the Adriatic for generations, the coming months will determine whether the centuries-old trade can survive the dual pressures of geopolitical volatility and the long-term structural challenges of EU-regulated fishing.

  • NAB hikes fixed home loan rates for the second time in two weeks

    NAB hikes fixed home loan rates for the second time in two weeks

    In a sudden shift reshaping Australia’s competitive home lending market, National Australia Bank (NAB) — one of the country’s dominant big four banks — has rolled out its second fixed-rate home loan increase in just a fortnight, a move that has stripped it of its position as the cheapest provider of fixed home loans in the nation.

    The latest adjustment, announced this Friday, comes exactly 14 days after NAB’s previous rate hike. The new round of increases adds 0.30 percentage points to every fixed-term home loan product the bank offers. Following the repricing, NAB’s lowest available fixed rate now sits at 6.34% for a one-year term. For borrowers seeking longer-term rate security, the cost climbs even higher, with a two-year fixed rate product reaching 6.39%.

    This market shift has cleared a path for competitor Westpac to claim the title of the big four’s lowest fixed rate provider. Westpac currently offers a two-year fixed home loan with a rate of 6.14%, undercutting NAB’s new pricing by a notable margin.

    NAB’s decision to raise rates twice in such a short window is far from an isolated move, it is part of a broader market response to shifting monetary conditions in Australia. Lenders across the sector have been adjusting pricing after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s March cash rate decision, as well as widespread expectations of further rate increases on the horizon.

    All three of the other major banks — ANZ, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, and NAB itself — have already forecast an additional 0.25 percentage point rate hike when the RBA meets next month. Forecasts are not uniform across the industry, however: Bendigo Bank Chief Economist David Robertson predicts the RBA will hold rates steady in May, but expects a third rate increase for 2026 to come in August. Robertson attributes this projected trajectory to ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East, which he says is creating a domino effect that keeps global and domestic inflation pressures elevated.

  • Bendigo Bank signals third interest rate hike for 2026 won’t be until August

    Bendigo Bank signals third interest rate hike for 2026 won’t be until August

    In a provocative deviation from consensus economic forecasts among Australia’s largest financial institutions, Bendigo Bank has staked out a contrarian position, predicting a third Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate increase will land in August 2026 rather than the May timeline widely expected by the country’s biggest banks. The unusual forecast comes alongside the regional lender’s strong quarterly profit results that have lifted its stock, even as it cuts hundreds of roles to align with new long-term tech partnerships.

    Bendigo Bank’s chief economist David Robertson outlined the forecast in a public statement Tuesday, confirming that the bank joins the broader market in expecting the RBA to hold interest rates steady at its upcoming May monetary policy meeting. But unlike rival national lenders ANZ, Commonwealth Bank of Australia and National Australia Bank, which all project a 25-basis point hike at the May gathering, Robertson said persistent economic pressures tied to global energy market disruptions will force the RBA to act three months later.

    The RBA last lifted the cash rate by 25 basis points at its March meeting, pushing the benchmark rate to 4.1% amid ongoing efforts to cool stubbornly high inflation. Robertson noted that the RBA’s May decision will hinge on how policymakers balance the risks of supply-demand imbalances stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict against the threat of tipping the domestic economy into a technical recession.

    The call for a delayed rate hike, Robertson explained, is rooted in two competing forces shaping Australia’s current economic trajectory: a surprisingly resilient domestic labour market that has kept consumer spending steady, and growing inflationary risks spurred by geopolitical tension in the Middle East. With key global shipping chokepoint the Strait of Hormuz facing ongoing disruption amid regional conflict, Bendigo Bank warns that constrained energy supplies and sustained elevated commodity prices will create a domino effect that keeps inflation above the RBA’s 2-3% target range. Robertson added that all global energy shocks carry inherent risk of stagflation, a toxic combination of slow growth and persistent rising prices that would force central bank action.

    The interest rate forecast was released alongside a separate major announcement from Bendigo Bank this week, confirming the lender would cut a significant share of its workforce after locking in multi-million-dollar long-term partnership deals with global technology services firms Infosys and Genpact. The partnerships run for seven and six years respectively, with the bank stating the agreements will bring specialized expertise in process optimization and delivery, boost long-term productivity, and strengthen the bank’s enterprise risk management frameworks.

    Despite the controversy of workforce cuts, Australian equity markets reacted positively to the bank’s updates. Bendigo Bank ranked among the top-performing stocks on the Australian Securities Exchange following the announcements, climbing 8.41% in intraday trading. The regional lender also delivered better-than-expected financial results for the March quarter, reporting cash profit of $138 million that beat consensus market forecasts by 12%, reinforcing investor confidence in the bank’s strategic shift.