分类： business

TOKYO, Sept 16 (Reuters) – Japan’s output gap for the April-June quarter of 2024 has been revised upward to 0.3%, the highest level since the July-September period of 2019, according to the Cabinet Office. This adjustment follows the release of updated gross domestic product (GDP) data, which provided a more accurate reflection of the nation’s economic performance. Previously, the output gap was estimated at 0.1% based on preliminary GDP figures released last month. This marks the first positive output gap reading since the April-June quarter of 2023, signaling a potential recovery in Japan’s economic activity. The output gap, which measures the difference between actual and potential economic output, is a key indicator of economic health and inflationary pressures. A positive gap suggests that demand is outpacing supply, which could lead to increased inflationary pressures. The revision underscores the resilience of Japan’s economy amid global uncertainties and highlights the importance of accurate data in shaping economic policy. Analysts are closely monitoring the trend to assess its implications for future monetary and fiscal decisions.

Trade negotiations between South Korea and the United States have hit a roadblock due to concerns surrounding the foreign exchange implications of a $350 billion investment fund. The fund, part of an agreement reached with U.S. President Donald Trump in July, has sparked fears that the resulting dollar demand could overwhelm South Korea’s relatively small currency market, potentially destabilizing the won. South Korean officials have expressed reluctance to accept terms similar to those agreed upon by Japan, which finalized a $550 billion investment package earlier this month. Tokyo’s deal requires transferring funds within 45 days of project selection and evenly splitting free cash flows until an allocated amount is reached, after which 90% of proceeds go to the U.S. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick emphasized that Seoul must either accept the same terms or face tariffs, leaving no room for negotiation. South Korea’s currency market, which remains tightly controlled since the 1997 financial crisis, is significantly smaller than Japan’s, with the won accounting for just 2% of global currency trade compared to the yen’s 17%. Market participants warn that the $40 billion annual demand from the state pension fund for overseas investments already strains the won, and the new package could add $100 billion annually from 2026 to 2028. Amid these challenges, South Korea is exploring the possibility of a bilateral currency swap line with the U.S. to mitigate potential foreign exchange pressures. Finance Minister Koo Yoon-cheol hinted at an upcoming announcement on foreign currency measures, while Presidential Policy Secretary Kim Yong-beom highlighted the yen’s international status and Japan’s unlimited swap line as advantages Seoul lacks. The U.S. Federal Reserve has previously established temporary swap lines with South Korea, including a $60 billion arrangement during the COVID-19 pandemic, which expired in December 2021. A renewed swap line could provide South Korea with much-needed stability as it navigates these complex trade negotiations.

In a recent interview with Reuters in Tokyo, Toyoo Gyoten, Japan’s former vice minister of finance for international affairs, highlighted the risks posed by Japan’s ultra-low interest rates and the prolonged weakness of the yen. At 94, Gyoten, who played a pivotal role in the 1985 Plaza Accord, emphasized that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) must remain vigilant about the potential acceleration of inflation driven by higher import costs due to the yen’s depreciation. ‘Japan’s interest rates have been excessively low, and this is undeniably contributing to the yen’s weakness,’ Gyoten stated. He urged the BOJ to consider the broader economic implications of this situation. The BOJ ended its decade-long stimulus program last year and raised short-term rates to 0.5% in January, aiming to sustainably achieve its 2% inflation target. However, consumer inflation has consistently exceeded this target for over three years. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has adopted a cautious approach to rate hikes, citing uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs on Japan’s economy. The yen hit a 38-year low of 161 per dollar last year and has remained weak, currently trading around 147 per dollar. Gyoten, now an honorary advisor to Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, suggested that Japan could correct the yen’s weakness by gradually tightening monetary policy, thereby narrowing the interest rate gap with the United States. Reflecting on the 1985 Plaza Accord, Gyoten noted that Japan’s response to the yen’s appreciation at the time—massive monetary easing—fueled asset bubbles that later burst, leaving lasting economic scars. He argued that Japan should have embraced a stronger yen as an opportunity to reduce its reliance on exports and transition to a new growth model. Gyoten also observed a shift in sentiment among export-oriented industries, which now recognize the importance of considering the impact of a weak yen on ordinary consumers facing rising living costs.

China’s meteoric rise in the electric vehicle (EV) industry is no longer a domestic narrative but a global phenomenon reshaping automotive and energy supply chains. A decade ago, Chinese automakers were seen as imitators; today, they are industry leaders. BYD has surpassed Tesla in global EV sales, while companies like Nio, Li Auto, Geely, and SAIC are capturing significant market shares. Battery giant CATL has become indispensable, powering both Chinese and international brands. This transformation, initially driven by government support, has evolved into structural dominance, compelling the world to react. In 2023, China overtook Japan as the world’s largest vehicle exporter, shipping 5.2 million cars—a 70% increase from the previous year. Domestically, 31.4 million vehicles were sold, with EVs accounting for over 40% of production. Analysts predict that by 2030, China could produce 36 million cars annually, representing 40% of global output. This ascent is fueled by scale, cost control, and over $230 billion in state-backed subsidies, infrastructure, and research investments. China’s supply chain integration, lower labor costs, and vast battery ecosystem provide an unassailable advantage. The implications are profound: global auto incumbents face margin pressures, EV-linked commodities are in high demand, and trade tensions are escalating as Western governments impose tariffs to protect their markets. Yet, protectionism can only slow, not halt, China’s advance. European showrooms are increasingly filled with competitively priced Chinese EVs, and Chinese brands are gaining traction in markets like the UK and Norway. Beyond autos, the EV surge is reshaping metals markets, energy utilities, and software platforms. China’s dominance mirrors its success in solar panels, drones, and steel, driven by deliberate industrial policy. For investors, this represents both opportunities and risks, as the global automotive and energy sectors undergo a once-in-a-generation transformation. China’s EV revolution is accelerating the energy transition, reducing oil demand, and straining electricity grids. The future of mobility, energy, and manufacturing is being written in China, and the world must adapt.

China has significantly intensified its regulatory oversight of lithium mining, transitioning from a lenient approach to a stringent framework aimed at ensuring sustainable and high-quality growth. In 2023, authorities initiated a policy to ‘clean up’ productive capacity, eliminating unlicensed operators and enforcing stricter compliance standards. This shift culminated in the enactment of a revised Mineral Resources Law in July 2025, which for the first time classified lithium as an independent, strategic mineral, thereby raising entry barriers and centralizing approval authority within the Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR).

Among the key changes, the new framework established a minimum lithium oxide (Li₂O) content of 0.4% for deposits to qualify as lithium orebodies, mandated the reclassification of mines previously registered under other categories, and reinforced environmental and safety standards through ‘green mine’ criteria. The centralization of mining rights approval aimed to curb past issues, such as in Yichun, where local officials had overstepped their jurisdiction.

The lithium industry faced significant challenges in 2023, with prices plummeting nearly 90% due to oversupply and slowing demand. This downturn led to fierce competition and overcapacity, forcing smaller, high-cost mines to operate at a loss. By mid-2025, around 30% of Jiangxi’s lithium-mica capacity remained idle due to negative margins.

In response, policymakers adopted ‘supply-side reform’ strategies, encouraging industry consolidation and curbing excess capacity. Measures included banning below-cost sales, adding lithium to the stabilization list of new energy materials, and coordinating temporary shutdowns in lithium-rich provinces. The Lithium Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association also urged the supply chain to resist ‘vicious competition’ and promote healthy development.

The regulatory overhaul highlighted China’s shift from maximizing production volume to prioritizing quality, efficiency, and sustainability. Inspections in Yichun uncovered irregularities, leading to the suspension of non-compliant mines and stricter licensing procedures. This transition has bolstered lithium carbonate prices and fostered expectations of more disciplined supply.

China’s new approach aims to filter speculative or obsolete capacity, reduce domestic oversupply, and establish a technologically advanced production ecosystem. By raising entry barriers and compliance costs, the country seeks to reinforce its global leadership in lithium production on a more robust foundation.

The United States and China have agreed to extend their trade truce by 90 days, providing both nations with additional time to restructure their supply chains in anticipation of potential negotiations collapsing in November. This decision follows an executive order signed by US President Donald Trump on Monday, which postponed the implementation of higher tariffs on Chinese goods until November 10. In response, China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) announced a reciprocal suspension of additional tariffs on US goods for the same period. Both countries will maintain existing 10% tariffs on each other’s goods, though the US will continue to impose higher tariffs on specific Chinese products, including those related to alleged fentanyl trafficking, which can reach up to 55%. Additionally, China has extended the suspension of measures under its Unreliable Entity List Working Mechanism, which was initially issued in April, affecting 17 US entities. The extension of the truce was anticipated, as US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had previously hinted at a 90-day extension in late July. The ongoing trade tensions have led Chinese manufacturers to explore relocating their operations to countries like Vietnam to circumvent tariffs, a strategy that has created new challenges and opportunities in global trade dynamics. Despite the temporary easing of tensions, both nations remain cautious, with further negotiations expected in the coming months.