Global Pulse

分类： business

  • Voters will judge Trump on the economy – how is it doing?

    Voters will judge Trump on the economy – how is it doing?

    Three months ago, the United States launched military operations in Iran, a conflict former President Donald Trump once claimed would conclude in no more than six weeks. Today, the war drags on with no end in sight, triggering a global energy shock that rivals the 1970s oil crises and sending prices soaring across everything from transportation fuel to household groceries. Yet, despite this sustained economic pressure on cash-strapped American households, newly released first-quarter 2026 gross domestic product (GDP) data reveals the US economy has outperformed expectations to maintain steady growth. As November’s critical midterm elections approach, the BBC has analyzed key US economic indicators to unpack what these conflicting signals mean for Trump and his Republican party.

    Official statistics confirm the US economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2% in the first three months of 2026, marking a notable acceleration from the slowdown recorded at the end of 2025. This solid growth comes even in the face of two major headwinds: sustained consumer cost pressure from existing US tariffs, which have lifted prices for domestic shoppers, and the sudden energy market disruption sparked by the Iran war. Economists note that the negative impact on consumers was far milder than initial projections predicted, with household consumption growing at a 1.6% annualized rate. Much of the overall growth momentum, however, has been driven by massive capital investment from large technology companies rolling out new artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure.
    James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, explained that as consumer spending growth moderates, “investment linked to tech and AI has clearly become the main engine of growth in the US.”

    As the election season heats up, Trump is already leveraging Thursday’s positive GDP figures to frame his economic policy agenda as a success for American voters. But November’s midterm contests are expected to be extremely tight, and Republican political fortunes continue to hinge on the decades-old maxim: “It’s the economy, stupid.” While headline GDP growth is positive, political analysts broadly agree that voter sentiment will be shaped far more heavily by day-to-day cost of living, which has surged dramatically since the war began.

    US military action in Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global chokepoint for oil shipments, sent global crude prices skyrocketing. On Thursday, Brent crude, the global benchmark, hit a four-year high of $126 per barrel; while prices have since pulled back to $111, that remains nearly 52% higher than the pre-war level of around $73 per barrel recorded before hostilities began in late February. Data from the American Automobile Association shows that average US retail fuel prices climbed to $4.30 per gallon by the end of April, up from less than $3 per gallon just two months prior.
    This sharp rise in energy costs drove a corresponding jump in inflation, with the annual inflation rate reaching 3.3% in March, marking a near two-year high and a sharp increase from February’s 2.4% reading.

    The post-war inflation surge has dashed widespread expectations that the Federal Reserve would implement imminent interest rate cuts to support economic growth. On Wednesday, the central bank announced it would hold its benchmark interest rate steady at between 3.5% and 3.75%, a range that has stood since before the conflict began. Pre-war forecasts from most economists had projected multiple rate cuts would be rolled out through 2026. Data from Freddie Mac shows that since the start of US strikes on Iran, the average interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage has risen from 5.98% to 6.3%, pushing homeownership further out of reach for many prospective buyers. Samuel Tombs, chief US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, warned that sustained high oil prices and expectations of a long-term US blockade of Iranian ports could delay any rate cuts until 2027.

    Against this economic turmoil, US stock markets have defied geopolitical risk to post solid gains since the conflict began. All three major US indices – the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Nasdaq Composite – have fully recovered the steep losses recorded in the first days of the war and resumed their pre-war upward trend. Since the start of hostilities, the tech-heavy Nasdaq has gained roughly 10%, the S&P 500 is up around 5%, and the Dow Jones has climbed just over 1%. Rising stock indices deliver tangible benefits beyond just active investors, supporting the retirement savings of millions of Americans with 401(k) plans and other pensions tied to equities markets.

    Heading into November, polling currently points to the Republicans losing control of the House of Representatives, with the Senate also at risk of flipping to Democratic control. Election outcomes will be overwhelmingly shaped by the state of the economy when voters cast their ballots. While strong headline GDP growth and rising stock markets offer some relief to Republican strategists, the persistent upward pressure on household costs remains a major liability for the party. How the election ultimately unfolds for Trump and his party will depend largely on how the Iran conflict progresses: whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens to global shipping, whether energy and grocery prices cool off for American voters, and whether the US economy can maintain its current momentum through the end of the year.

  • US airlines step up as Spirit winds down

    US airlines step up as Spirit winds down

    On a chaotic Saturday for U.S. air travel, discount carrier Spirit Airlines — recognizable by its iconic bright yellow aircraft — formally halted all global operations with immediate effect after last-ditch negotiations between creditors, company leadership, and the Trump White House collapsed. The sudden shutdown left thousands of passengers stranded overnight and nearly 7,500 employees facing sudden unemployment, prompting rival major carriers to launch emergency response efforts to accommodate displaced travelers and recruit out-of-work aviation staff.

    Founded in 1964 and repositioned as one of America’s first low-cost carriers in 1992, Spirit had been teetering on the edge of collapse for nearly two years. The company first filed for bankruptcy protection in November 2024, followed by a second bankruptcy filing in August 2025 after its financial position failed to stabilize. By late February 2026, Spirit announced a tentative debt restructuring agreement that it hoped would allow it to exit bankruptcy by early summer. That progress unraveled days later, when the Strait of Hormuz was closed following U.S.-Israeli military strikes on Iran, sending global jet fuel prices soaring and erasing any remaining path to solvency.

    In an official statement announcing the wind-down, Spirit leaders framed the shutdown as an unavoidable outcome: “The recent material increase in oil prices and other pressures on the business have significantly impacted Spirit’s financial outlook. With no additional funding available to the company, Spirit had no choice but to begin this wind-down.” The carrier has pledged full refunds to all passengers holding tickets for canceled flights, a promise echoed by U.S. transportation officials.

    In the wake of the shutdown, major U.S. carriers including American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, and JetBlue Airways moved quickly to absorb stranded passengers. The airlines introduced deeply discounted “rescue fares” for travelers who woke Saturday to find their itineraries canceled, and announced adjustments to flight schedules — adding extra frequencies and deploying larger aircraft on routes where Spirit previously held a large market share. Beyond assisting passengers, multiple carriers also moved quickly to hire Spirit’s out-of-work ground crew, flight attendants, pilots, and maintenance staff, who were suddenly left without jobs.

    The shutdown has already sparked political finger-pointing over what led to the carrier’s collapse. U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy defended the Trump administration’s handling of the crisis during a Saturday press briefing at Newark Liberty International Airport, arguing that the White House pushed aggressively to keep the carrier afloat. “The president was like a dog on a bone trying to figure out a way to keep Spirit afloat,” Duffy said. He pinned ultimate blame on creditors, who rejected the government’s proposed bailout terms, and noted that “we oftentimes don’t have a half a billion dollars laying around in a spare account that we can put into a bailout of an airline.” Duffy also blamed the prior Biden administration for blocking a proposed merger between Spirit and JetBlue in March 2024, a decision he argued set the stage for the carrier’s ultimate demise.

    Unions representing Spirit’s 7,500 employees condemned the failed rescue talks, warning that the brunt of the collapse would fall on frontline workers rather than corporate leadership. “The pain of this decision will not be felt in boardrooms. It will be felt by pilots, flight attendants, mechanics, dispatchers, and ground crews, and by the families and communities that depend on them,” a statement from the Air Line Pilots Association read.

    For many passengers, the sudden shutdown upended long-planned travel. Sixty-year-old Florida resident Ramon, who only gave his first name to AFP, had been scheduled to travel to Honduras this week to visit family. He and his son Kevin had seen reports of Spirit’s financial troubles in recent days, but declined an early refund offer because replacement tickets on other carriers were prohibitively expensive, and there was no clear indication the carrier would collapse immediately. “I was trying to go today on another airline, but it was like $1,000 a ticket,” Ramon said. The family now plans to wait for their Spirit refund before rebooking travel for early June.

    Industry analysts say the collapse of Spirit will have lasting impacts on U.S. air travel prices. Bradley Akubuiro, a crisis management expert at Bully Pulpit International, noted that while the post-strike spike in fuel prices delivered the final blow to the struggling carrier, Spirit was already in an unsustainable position long before the energy market shock. “The more lasting consequence is that one of the strongest sources of low-fare pressure in the US market is gone,” Akubuiro told AFP.

  • Spirit Airlines shutting down after rescue talks collapse

    Spirit Airlines shutting down after rescue talks collapse

    Ultra-low-cost carrier Spirit Airlines has permanently ceased operations after negotiations for a $500 million emergency bailout from the Trump administration collapsed, ending months of frantic efforts to stave off bankruptcy. The carrier announced on its official website Saturday that it was initiating an immediate, orderly wind-down of all business activities, a decision it described as being made with “great disappointment.”

    The airline’s collapse comes after years of financial instability, marking its second trip through bankruptcy protection in less than a decade. Spirit had just begun restructuring under its most recent insolvency proceedings, cutting route capacity and shrinking its fleet, when the outbreak of U.S.-Israeli military strikes in Iran sent global jet fuel prices skyrocketing. Industry analysts note that fuel costs typically account for up to 40% of a commercial airline’s total operating expenses, and prices have doubled since strikes began in late February. This sudden, dramatic cost increase pushed the already teetering carrier over the edge.

    All future Spirit flights have been canceled immediately, and the airline confirmed it will not issue direct refunds to customers holding unused tickets. Passengers seeking compensation are advised to file claims through their credit card issuers instead. The carrier has also suspended all customer service operations effective Saturday.

    Savanthi Syth, senior airline analyst at investment bank Raymond James, called the Iran-driven fuel price surge the “final nail in the coffin” for Spirit. Speaking to the BBC, Syth explained that the airline failed to implement the deep, transformative restructuring it needed during its 2024 bankruptcy process. Even before the conflict escalated in the Middle East, Syth noted, Spirit’s long-term viability was already in doubt. She added, “If it wasn’t for the fuel scenario, they would have been okay through the summer, beyond the summer I would have said it was still precarious.”

    Spirit’s leadership expressed confidence as recently as late April that a government rescue deal would be finalized imminently. But the proposed plan, which would have given the U.S. government an effective 90% ownership stake in the airline, faced fierce pushback from multiple fronts: Wall Street investors, Congressional lawmakers, and even a member of Trump’s own cabinet. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy told Reuters that a bailout would amount to throwing “good money after bad.”

    After negotiations fell apart, Trump told CBS, a BBC partner, on Friday that the airline had been extended a “final proposal” to remain operational. Spirit’s collapse comes amid a broader crisis rocking the global aviation industry, as carriers across the world scramble to adapt to spiking fuel costs. Many have responded by cutting route capacity or raising ticket fares to offset higher expenses. The crisis has also sparked broader supply chain fears: the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that Europe could face a total jet fuel shortage in as little as six weeks if current conditions hold.

  • Interest rate hikes slash first-home buyer borrowing capacity by thousands

    Interest rate hikes slash first-home buyer borrowing capacity by thousands

    Australia’s aspiring first homeowners are facing a growing barrier to entering the property market, with consecutive interest rate increases from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) severely eroding how much they can borrow from lenders, according to new industry analysis.

  • What alternatives do Gulf states have to the Strait of Hormuz?

    What alternatives do Gulf states have to the Strait of Hormuz?

    Two months have passed since the outbreak of conflict between Iran and other regional actors, and the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical energy trade chokepoint, remains largely closed to commercial vessel traffic. Shipping volumes have plummeted to a tiny fraction of pre-war levels, and a chaotic sequence of temporary ceasefires, shifting blockades and repeated re-closures since February 28 have done nothing to restore confidence among commercial tanker crews and shipping operators.

    For decades, global energy analysts and policymakers have recognized the strait as a linchpin of international commodity trade. On a typical day before the conflict, it accommodated around 20 million barrels of crude oil and refined petroleum products, alongside roughly 20% of the world’s total liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. It also carries one-third of global helium supplies and a comparable share of urea, the key input for global agricultural fertilizer production.

    Plans to diversify trade routes away from the strait have been in development for decades, but the ongoing conflict has put these alternative bypass systems under unprecedented stress. Currently, the existing alternative infrastructure is delivering between 3.5 million and 5.5 million barrels of crude oil per day, matching the rough performance projections that planners outlined decades ago. Even so, this output falls drastically short of compensating for the lost capacity from the closed strait.

    The single most critical bypass pipeline in operation today is Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, also widely known as Petroline. Originally constructed in the 1980s during the original Tanker War, when Iran and Iraq targeted commercial shipping across the Persian Gulf amid their broader armed conflict, the pipeline was upgraded in 2019 to an emergency maximum capacity of 7 million barrels per day. However, the oil loading terminals at Yanbu, Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coastal hub, were never engineered to handle such high volumes at speed, and independent analysts tracking tanker movements report that current throughput is far below the theoretical maximum capacity.

    From Yanbu, most crude bound for European markets must then pass through Egypt’s Sumed Pipeline, which has a total capacity of just 2.5 million barrels per day. While flows through Sumed have surged 150% since the conflict began, its limited size remains a hard cap on additional energy supplies reaching Europe.

    Iran has been acutely aware of Petroline’s geostrategic importance to global energy markets, and has targeted the infrastructure accordingly. In April, an Iranian drone strike on one of the pipeline’s key pumping stations took 700,000 barrels per day of capacity offline. State-owned operator Saudi Aramco managed to restore full operations within three days, a timeline that has reassured markets, but the attack itself underscores the persistent vulnerability of even the most robust bypass infrastructure.

    The second major component of the Gulf’s bypass network runs through the United Arab Emirates: the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (Adcop), which connects the Habshan oil fields to Fujairah on the UAE’s Gulf of Oman coast, making it the only major bypass route that exits the Persian Gulf directly into the Indian Ocean. Adcop has a maximum capacity of just under 2 million barrels per day, but it has faced the same security threats as Petroline. Iranian drone strikes targeting Fujairah on March 3, 14 and 16 ignited storage tank fires and forced a full suspension of loading operations. While Adcop does offer limited route diversification for UAE oil exports, it does not resolve the core vulnerability of bypass infrastructure to targeted attacks.

    For other major Gulf energy producers, the situation is far more bleak. Before the conflict, Iraq exported 3.4 million barrels of crude per day, almost all of which moved through the southern port of Basra and across the Strait of Hormuz. Iraq’s only alternative route is a northern pipeline connecting the Kirkuk oil fields to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. The pipeline was only reopened in September 2025 following a two-and-a-half-year shutdown, and flows were only ramped up to 250,000 barrels per day this March – a volume that is negligible compared to the export capacity Iraq has lost since the strait closed.

    Kuwait faces an even more critical crisis. Pre-war crude exports hit roughly 2 million barrels per day, and every barrel transited the Strait of Hormuz. The country has no operational pipeline alternative. State-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corporation declared force majeure in March, a legal move that allows it to suspend contractual delivery obligations, and extended that declaration on April 20. The company has confirmed it cannot meet delivery commitments even if the strait reopens immediately, noting that restoring damaged production infrastructure and ramping output back up will take months of work.

    Qatar’s vulnerability follows a different pattern. The country’s pre-war crude exports were far smaller than its Gulf neighbors, at around 600,000 barrels per day, all of which transited the strait. But Qatar’s global importance lies in natural gas: its 77 million tonne per year LNG export complex at Ras Laffan is the largest in the world, accounting for roughly 19% of global LNG trade. There is no alternative route for this LNG, which must all pass through the Strait of Hormuz to reach global markets.

    Even Iran itself has been unable to effectively use its own purpose-built Hormuz bypass. The country completed a 1,000-kilometer pipeline from Goreh at the top of the Persian Gulf to a new export terminal at Jask on the Gulf of Oman, designed to carry 1 million barrels per day. But years of international sanctions and unfinished terminal construction have left actual throughput at a tiny fraction of design capacity. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated that in summer 2024, less than 70,000 barrels per day were flowing through the pipeline, and all loadings stopped that September. Data from global shipping analytics firm Kpler shows only one tanker has loaded crude at Jask since the conflict began, carrying roughly 2 million barrels of oil total.

    Calls for new pipeline construction to bypass Hormuz, which have grown louder since the conflict began, are understandable on their face. But building new infrastructure is not a viable near-term solution. Replacing the strait’s capacity with a new network of pipelines would cost hundreds of billions of dollars and require at least a decade of construction. Even once complete, any new pipelines and terminals built at Yanbu, Fujairah or other locations would face the exact same vulnerability to drone strikes that existing bypass infrastructure faces today.

  • Elon Musk’s latest Tesla pay valued at $158bn – but he can’t pocket it

    Elon Musk’s latest Tesla pay valued at $158bn – but he can’t pocket it

    In a regulatory filing published Thursday, Tesla has put a $158 billion (£117 billion) valuation on the 2025 compensation package for its chief executive Elon Musk, one of the world’s wealthiest people — but the document also confirmed that Musk will not take home any of that sum this year. The eye-popping valuation stems from a historic pay deal that Tesla shareholders approved back in November, which ties Musk’s earnings to a series of extremely ambitious performance and growth milestones. Until those targets are met, the massive package remains purely nominal, industry analysts emphasize. The approved agreement would grant Musk up to $1 trillion in Tesla stock only if he guides the electric vehicle maker to a series of aggressive long-term goals, chief among them boosting the company’s total market capitalization to $8.5 trillion. For 2025, none of those required milestones were met, so no payout is triggered, says Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at UK investment platform AJ Bell. “Elon Musk isn’t actually going to pocket $158bn,” Hewson explained to the BBC. The $158 billion figure disclosed in the filing to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is not a guaranteed payout for 2025, she added: rather, it is an accounting estimate of what Musk would receive if he ultimately delivers on all the terms of the deal, counting his work toward the targets over the past year. The full list of milestones Musk must hit to unlock the full stock grant is sweeping, and spans multiple business lines at Tesla. He must grow the company’s annual vehicle delivery volume to 20 million units, while also rolling out 1 million humanoid robots. He needs to hit 10 million paid subscriptions for Tesla’s controversial Full Self-Driving driver assistance feature, and launch 1 million commercial autonomous Robotaxis for ride-hailing service. The plan also requires Tesla to hit cumulative core profit of up to $400 billion before the full payout can be issued. If all these targets are met, Musk would receive more than 400 million additional Tesla shares, which would be worth roughly $1 trillion at the $8.5 trillion market valuation the plan calls for. While the goals are intentionally very high, Hewson notes that the structure of the deal was designed to refocus Musk’s attention on Tesla, and the unprecedented package has generated massive global attention for both the CEO and the automaker. Musk already holds the title of the world’s richest person by a wide margin. As of this reporting, Bloomberg estimates his total net worth at $651 billion, while Forbes pegs the figure even higher at $788 billion. Both estimates place his personal wealth far above that of other major tech leaders, including Google co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin. Since Musk draws no base salary for his role as Tesla CEO, and already has vast wealth from his sprawling portfolio of other companies, he faces no immediate pressure to hit the targets quickly, Hewson added. One of Musk’s other high-growth ventures, aerospace firm SpaceX, is on track to become one of the most valuable publicly traded companies in the world after its upcoming initial public offering (IPO). The rocket manufacturer recently merged with xAI, Musk’s artificial intelligence startup and parent company of social platform X, ahead of the public listing. Beyond Tesla and SpaceX, Musk is currently embroiled in a high-profile legal battle with OpenAI, the artificial intelligence research lab he co-founded with current CEO Sam Altman in 2015. The legal proceedings have included heated exchanges between Musk and OpenAI’s legal team, as well as the presiding judge. Musk claims that Altman and co-founder Greg Brockman abandoned the organization’s original non-profit mission to pursue for-profit growth, effectively “stealing” the charity he helped build.

  • Was LIV Golf an expensive failure for Saudis? Not everyone thinks so

    Was LIV Golf an expensive failure for Saudis? Not everyone thinks so

    For many casual observers, writing off Saudi Arabia’s $5 billion investment in the controversial breakaway LIV Golf tour as an expensive business failure seems like a straightforward conclusion after the kingdom confirmed its exit after five planned seasons. But industry experts argue that framing the LIV experiment as a total loss misreads Saudi Arabia’s broader strategic goals, which extended far beyond turning a quick profit on professional golf.

    Launched in 2022 by Saudi Arabia’s $900 billion sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund (PIF), LIV Golf upended the global golf landscape by poaching dozens of top stars including Dustin Johnson and Phil Mickelson with nine-figure signing bonuses. The reimagined tour format—featuring 54 holes of play, simultaneous shotgun starts, and on-course entertainment—sparked a bitter legal battle with the established PGA Tour that ended only when the two sides announced surprise merger negotiations, which dragged on for years without reaching a final deal. Ultimately, LIV never secured a lucrative major broadcast contract or built a large, loyal global fanbase, making continued large-scale investment unsustainable.

    However, analysts emphasize that LIV always served a larger purpose beyond golf: advancing Saudi Arabia’s core strategic agenda of diversifying its oil-dependent economy and boosting its global profile as a destination for tourism, international business, and investment. As the world’s top crude oil exporter, Saudi Arabia has used its PIF to pour billions into high-profile sports properties to deliver on this vision, a strategy that has already yielded visible wins: securing hosting rights for the 2034 men’s FIFA World Cup, luring global soccer superstar Cristiano Ronaldo to the Saudi Pro League, and taking over English Premier League club Newcastle United. Even with LIV’s exit, experts say this broader strategic trajectory remains unchanged.

    “Saudi Arabia is not going cold on sport,” Simon Chadwick, professor of Afro-Eurasian sport at Emlyon Business School in Shanghai, told Agence France-Presse. “It is evaluating the work that has thus far been done, what remains to be delivered, and what has worked (or hasn’t worked). The trajectory remains the same.”

    Chadwick added that initial Saudi ambitions for sports investment may have been overly ambitious, opening the door for opportunistic actors in the global sports industry to exploit the kingdom’s aggressive spending spree. Other analysts note that LIV’s exit is part of a broader pullback from the most extravagant, unproven projects across Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification agenda, including scaled-back spending on the $500 billion futuristic megacity NEOM and luxury tourism resorts. Within sports, the Saudi Pro League has also pulled back from the blank-check spending spree that attracted veteran global stars, and PIF recently sold a majority stake in top domestic club Al Hilal. Other high-profile events, including the Saudi Arabia Snooker Masters, have also been scrapped years into long-term contracts.

    Amro Elserty, a France-based Middle East sports affairs analyst, explained that LIV fulfilled its core initial purpose of putting Saudi Arabia on the global sports map, even if continued massive spending no longer made strategic sense. “That phase was primarily about visibility and positioning Saudi Arabia as a major global player,” he said. “What has changed is not that this objective disappeared, but that the marginal value of continuing to spend at the same level on a single project like LIV has declined.”

    While LIV’s exit carries some minor reputational risk, Elserty argued that it is not viewed as a major failure inside Saudi policy circles. “Within the logic of PIF’s strategy, this is better understood as a controlled exit from an experimental phase rather than a failure in the conventional sense,” he said. Chadwick echoed that view, noting that outside observers have overblown the significance of the pullback, framing what is a routine strategic adjustment as a high-stakes sports melodrama. Critics have long dismissed Saudi Arabia’s sports investments as “sportswashing,” an effort to distract from global criticism of the kingdom’s human rights record, but that has not slowed the expansion of Saudi influence across global sport. Even with LIV’s end, experts confirm Saudi Arabia’s commitment to using sports investment as a core tool for economic and geopolitical positioning remains intact.

  • Oil steady after wild swing, stocks diverge in thin trading

    Oil steady after wild swing, stocks diverge in thin trading

    Global financial markets saw mixed movements on Friday as thin holiday trading amplified existing uncertainty, driven by simmering geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and ongoing digestion of the latest batch of corporate earnings results.

    Many of the world’s major financial centers remained closed for the May 1 international labor holiday, including key markets across mainland China, Hong Kong, France, and Germany, leaving thinner-than-usual trading volumes to amplify price swings across open venues. Among active exchanges, Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed up 0.4% at 59,513.12, while London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.6% to 10,313.70, dragged down by NatWest. The British bank reported higher quarterly net profit but issued a cautionary note that domestic economic conditions are on track to deteriorate in coming months.

    Energy markets were the focal point of investor attention after a day of extreme volatility the previous session, with oil prices eventually stabilizing around $111 a barrel for international benchmark Brent crude. The wild swing was triggered by escalating fears of renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran, with no visible progress toward a diplomatic deal to de-escalate tensions. Investors are particularly concerned about the potential for a prolonged disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint that carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s daily global oil supplies.

    Earlier this week, Brent surged to a four-year high above $126 per barrel after Axios reported that former U.S. President Donald Trump would receive a briefing on potential new military strikes against Iran, compounding existing anxiety following warnings that a blockade of Iranian ports could last for months. This latest energy market shock has stoked broader fears of persistent global inflation, prompting major central banks around the world to hold interest rates steady this week as they monitor evolving economic risks. Both the European Central Bank and Bank of England kept borrowing costs unchanged on Thursday but left the door open for future rate hikes if inflation pressures do not abate, matching the cautious stance adopted this week by the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan.

    Despite geopolitical headwinds, U.S. markets closed out Thursday at fresh record highs, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notching new closing records, supported by stronger-than-expected corporate earnings and continued resilience in U.S. economic growth. “The latest U.S. earnings season has been robust, which has helped prevent global markets from suffering big losses despite the impact of the Iran conflict,” noted Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell. Big tech led the positive earnings momentum: Alphabet, Google’s parent company, jumped 10% after posting forecast-beating profits and solid revenue growth across all its core business units Wednesday, while Apple beat analyst expectations after Thursday’s market close, driven by surprisingly strong iPhone demand.

    In currency markets, the yen saw a slight weakening against the U.S. dollar one day after a sharp rally fueled by speculation that Japanese financial authorities had intervened in foreign exchange markets to prop up the slumping currency. Japanese officials have issued repeated public warnings in recent weeks about excessive yen depreciation, signaling their willingness to step in to stabilize valuations. As of 1025 GMT, Brent crude traded up 0.7% at $111.20 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 0.3% to hit $105.39 a barrel. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed Thursday up 1.6% at 49,652.14, and the dollar traded at 156.50 yen, down slightly from 156.60 yen a day earlier.

    Analysts note that while near-term volatility is likely to continue as geopolitical risks unfold, strong corporate earnings have so far acted as a buffer for global equities. “If oil stays in the $100-a-barrel range for an extended period, the broader economic costs will eventually be harder to ignore,” said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. “But for now, earnings are the bigger fish, and markets are happy to keep swimming with the current.”

  • Trump to remove whisky tariffs after King’s visit

    Trump to remove whisky tariffs after King’s visit

    A surprise policy announcement has upended transatlantic spirits trade relations, as US President Donald Trump has confirmed he will eliminate all existing tariffs and trade restrictions on whisky imports into the United States, a decision timed explicitly to honor King Charles III and Queen Camilla’s recent four-day state visit to the US. The move clears the way for restored full collaboration between Scottish whisky producers and Kentucky’s bourbon industry, a cross-border partnership that has been constrained by trade barriers for years, and the policy change extends to all imported whiskies, including Irish whiskey, UK government officials have confirmed.

    King Charles and Queen Camilla wrapped up their state visit on Thursday, which included stops in Washington D.C., New York, and Virginia, and ended with a warm handshake between the British monarch and the US president ahead of the royal party’s departure. In comments to reporters following the visit, Trump framed the tariff elimination as an unexpected outcome of the royal trip, noting, “The Royal visit got me to do something that nobody else was able to do, without hardly even asking.”

    In a public post to his Truth Social platform, Trump expanded on the decision, writing that the action was taken “in honour of the King and Queen of the United Kingdom, who have just left the White House, soon headed back to their wonderful country.” He highlighted the deep historic and economic ties between the Scottish whisky and Kentucky bourbon sectors, particularly the longstanding trade of used bourbon barrels. Today, the Scottish whisky industry is the single largest buyer of Kentucky’s used bourbon barrels, importing approximately £200 million worth of the casks annually, a flow of goods that has been disrupted by existing trade restrictions.

    Buckingham Palace confirmed the King’s response to the announcement in a statement, saying the monarch extended his “sincere gratitude” to President Trump and added that he “will be raising a dram to the President’s thoughtfulness.”

    Political leaders across the United Kingdom have widely praised the decision. Scotland’s First Minister John Swinney called the development “tremendous news for Scotland,” crediting King Charles with playing a pivotal role in pushing the agreement across the finish line. Swinney noted that the tariffs had inflicted severe ongoing damage on Scotland’s economy, saying “Millions of pounds were being lost every month from the Scottish economy.”

    UK Business and Trade Secretary Peter Kyle echoed that enthusiasm, noting that Scotch whisky exports to the US are valued at nearly £1 billion annually and support tens of thousands of jobs across the United Kingdom. The 10% across-the-board tariff on whisky imports was first introduced by the Trump administration during an earlier trade dispute, and the levy hit the US market — which is the largest export market for Scotch whisky by value — particularly hard. Compounding that pressure, a suspended 25% tariff on premium single malt Scotch, which had been put on hold four years ago, was scheduled to go back into effect this spring. A last-minute deal with the Trump administration had been the only way to avoid the additional cost that would have crippled premium single malt sales in the key US market.

    Industry leaders say the elimination of all tariffs comes as a massive relief to a sector that has been operating under sustained financial pressure for years. Graeme Littlejohn, strategy director for the Scotch Whisky Association, told reporters that his organization was “delighted” by the announcement. “The industry’s been losing around £4m a week in lost exports to the United States – £150m over the course of the last year while tariffs have been in place,” Littlejohn explained. “This is a real boost for the industry and distillers will breathe a sigh of relief now that these tariffs are off.”

    Littlejohn credited years of high-level diplomatic negotiation for laying the groundwork for the deal, but acknowledged that the royal state visit provided the critical catalyst to finalize the agreement. “Perhaps the state visit has been the catalyst for getting this over the line and the King’s added that little bit of royal sparkle to make the deal work,” he said. Industry representatives across the UK and Ireland have noted that the elimination of tariffs will allow distillers of all sizes to operate with far more stability amid a period of ongoing global economic pressure on consumer goods sectors.

  • ASX 200 snaps losing streak as mining giants and Coles sales surge

    ASX 200 snaps losing streak as mining giants and Coles sales surge

    After eight consecutive days of declines — its longest losing stretch since 2018 — Australia’s benchmark ASX 200 notched a welcome rebound on Friday, driven by sharp gains across major mining stocks and a robust sales update from national supermarket chain Coles. The leading index climbed 64 points, or 0.74%, to close at 8729.80, while the wider All Ordinaries index followed suit, rising 67 points (0.75%) to settle at 8954.60.

    The Australian dollar edged slightly lower over the session, dipping 0.15% to trade at 71.89 US cents. Ten of the ASX 200’s 11 industry sectors finished the day in positive territory, with the materials sector leading the charge. Global oil prices pulled back from a recent four-year high of $US126 per barrel to $US111 per barrel, easing cost pressure on resource operations and lifting investor sentiment for major miners. BHP Group rose 2.27% to $54.94, Rio Tinto jumped 2.73% to $171.97, and Fortescue Metals closed up 1.83% at $20.01.

    Despite the near-term market bounce, AMP’s deputy chief economist Diana Mousina cautioned that geopolitical risks remain underpriced by markets, particularly in the global energy sector. While peace talks had previously showed tentative progress, negotiations have now stalled, leaving the region in a tense geopolitical standstill. “Markets clearly expect some sort of resolution will eventually be reached, especially as missile strikes have slowed in recent weeks,” Mousina explained. “However, we believe markets are underestimating the lingering risks, especially within the oil market.”

    The consumer staples sector also turned in a strong performance, almost entirely thanks to Coles’ upbeat trading update. The supermarket giant reported group sales revenue of $10.7 billion for the 12-week period ending March 29, sending its shares surging 3.66% to $22.92. Other consumer-facing stocks also posted gains: Endeavour Group climbed 2.09% to $3.42, while A2 Milk rose 2.68% to $7.27. Coles’ main rival Woolworths bucked the trend, however, slipping 0.70% to $34.15.

    Financials was the only sector to close the session in negative territory. ANZ Banking Group recorded a 9% half-year profit increase to $3.65 billion, but shares still slumped 2.84% to $35.61 after chief executive Nuno Matos warned that the ongoing geopolitical conflict would create greater economic headwinds for Australia. Matos noted that lower national growth, persistently high inflation, and ongoing interest rate hikes will create growing financial pressure for many Australian customers. “As Australia’s most international bank, we have a front-row seat to global developments,” Matos said. “Much of the potential impact of this crisis remains ahead of us, but the longer oil supplies remain constrained, the greater the chance the crisis shifts from primarily an inflation challenge to a much more serious supply and growth challenge.” Other major banks also posted small declines: Commonwealth Bank fell 0.36% to $173.04, Westpac dipped 0.13% to $38.45, and NAB slipped 0.13% to $39.83.

    In other corporate news, Qantas Airways gained 0.83% to $8.48 after announcing it would extend flight capacity cuts through to 2026-2027 in response to ongoing disruption from the Middle East conflict. Sleep and respiratory treatment manufacturer ResMed dropped 3.53% to $28.73 despite reporting an 11% year-over-year revenue increase to $US1.4 billion for its latest reporting period.