LONDON – Ten years after the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union in a historic 2016 referendum, unfulfilled campaign promises and stagnant economic growth have left even once-committed supporters frustrated with the outcome of the country’s most significant political shift in a generation. The divide that opened up across business, politics and the general public a decade ago remains deeply entrenched, even as discontent with Brexit’s real-world impacts grows steadily.
In 2016, leave campaigners painted a rosy portrait of a post-Brexit Britain: freed from what they framed as overreaching rules from Brussels-based EU bureaucrats, the nation would regain full control over its laws and borders, unlock dynamic economic growth, and carve out a prosperous new role as a global trading power. Eight years after the UK completed its formal withdrawal from the bloc in January 2020, that vision has yet to materialize. The country continues to grapple with new trade barriers that have raised costs for businesses, anemic economic expansion, strained public services, and persistent challenges managing irregular migration across the English Channel.
The cross-section of business leaders who backed opposing sides in the 2016 campaign now share a sense of disillusionment with Brexit’s current state. Simon Boyd, managing director of REIDSteel, a Dorset-based prefabricated steel structure manufacturer that exports to markets as far-flung as Ghana and Barbados, voted for Leave in 2016 and still stands by that decision. But he acknowledges that the outcome has fallen far short of the promises made during the referendum campaign. “No, it’s not delivered everything that was said it would deliver on the tin, but it is delivering,” Boyd told the Associated Press. “It’s very sluggish. You only need to look at the statistics to see that.”
Boyd blames lackluster results not on the core idea of Brexit itself, but on successive governments that failed to fully commit to delivering a clean break from the bloc, alongside unforeseen global shocks that have roiled the UK economy over the past decade: the COVID-19 pandemic, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and rising geopolitical instability in the Middle East. He also rejects calls to reverse the 2016 result, arguing that rejoining the EU on the terms currently available would be untenable. “Imagine if we were to rejoin … today. The conditions upon which we would be allowed back in would be akin to us re-boarding the Titanic on the condition that we surrender our life vests first,” he said. “Need I say any more?”
On the opposite side of 2016’s debate is Mike Hawes, chief executive of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, the leading trade body for Britain’s iconic automotive industry. Hawes’ sector was one of the most vocal opponents of Brexit ahead of the referendum, warning that new trade red tape for car parts and finished vehicles would fracture the integrated cross-border supply chains that the industry depends on.
Those warnings have largely been borne out. Uncertainty around Brexit has deterred foreign direct investment in UK manufacturing, as global automakers no longer see Britain as a reliable gateway to the EU single market. While the industry has adapted to new rules, the added costs and barriers have created persistent pressure. “We have been able to move with the times, so to speak, but undoubtedly it’s putting us at more cost into the industry, more pressure,” Hawes said. The sector is now pinning its hopes on new independent trade deals negotiated by Britain post-Brexit to boost overseas demand for its products.
Economic analysts agree that Brexit has left a clear long-term mark on the UK’s overall economic performance. Creon Butler, who leads the global economy and finance program at London-based independent think tank Chatham House, said leaving the single market has carried unavoidable long-term costs. “Whatever was promised, whatever one hoped for, (you have) to accept that it has been a major loss of wealth and prosperity for us through the choice we made to leave,” he said. “That’s a decision the British public have made, and they are entitled to make it, but it does make us poorer.”
A new study by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) underscores that assessment. Researchers from the UK, Germany and the U.S. compared the UK’s current economic performance to a synthetic control group of 33 peer countries, estimating that Brexit has reduced Britain’s overall gross domestic product by between 6% and 8%, cut overall business investment by 12% to 13%, and dragged down productivity by 3% to 4%, compared to what the outcomes would have been if the UK had stayed in the EU.
Beyond trade and macroeconomics, the end of free movement of people – a core principle of the EU – has created acute labor shortages in sectors that relied heavily on cheap labor from Central and Eastern Europe. That disruption has hit one of Britain’s most iconic cultural institutions: the neighborhood curry house. Many curry restaurant owners backed Brexit in 2016 after receiving assurances that the policy would open up more visa pathways for South Asian chefs. Instead, the end of free movement pushed thousands of Eastern European hospitality workers to return to their home countries to avoid burdensome new visa requirements, while promised visa reforms for South Asian cooks never materialized.
“We feel betrayed,” said Oli Khan, president of the Bangladesh Caterers Association UK and owner of a popular restaurant in Stevenage, north of London.
While supporters of Brexit point to the dozens of independent trade deals Britain has signed with countries around the world – from Australia and India to the U.S. – as evidence of the policy’s benefits, official data shows the EU still remains the UK’s largest trading partner, accounting for 41% of exports and 50% of imports as of 2025.
As frustration with Brexit mounts, new Prime Minister Keir Starmer has opened exploratory talks with the EU to renegotiate closer trade ties, in an effort to unlock growth for the stagnant UK economy. Recent polling from Ipsos, the Policy Institute at King’s College London, and UK in a Changing Europe shows growing public discontent with Brexit: 48% of respondents to a May 2026 survey of 2,245 UK adults said Brexit was performing worse than they expected, up from just 28% in March 2021. Only 9% said the policy is performing better than expected, while roughly one third said outcomes are in line with their expectations.
For leave supporters like Boyd, however, the 2016 referendum result remains the settled will of the British people, and cannot be reversed. Even with its slow start, he remains convinced that Britain will ultimately build a more prosperous future outside the bloc, once political leaders fully embrace the opportunities of Brexit.
