Nine years after his last trip to China during his first presidential term, former and returning U.S. President Donald Trump touched down in Beijing for a landmark summit that could redefine the trajectory of relations between the world’s two most powerful rival nations. Chinese President Xi Jinping rolled out a meticulously orchestrated, grand ceremonial welcome for Trump outside the Great Hall of the People, complete with a military honor guard, 21-gun salute, and a military band playing the U.S. national anthem. As Trump walked the receiving line, he twice paused to greet crowds of waving schoolchildren holding both Chinese and American flags, before sharing a warm, informal greeting with Xi, patting Xi’s arm in a gesture of goodwill that drew attention from observers.
In unscripted remarks after their initial handshake, Trump offered effusive praise for his host, telling Xi, “You’re a great leader. I say it to everybody.” During a later cultural tour of the 600-year-old Temple of Heaven, he commented to reporters that China is a beautiful country, and opened his remarks at that evening’s state banquet by calling the high-level talks a “cherished” opportunity to connect. This warm reception marks a striking departure from Trump’s long-held rhetorical posture toward China, which he built his 2016 political brand around by taking a hardline stance. During his first campaign, he infamously claimed China was “raping” the United States economically; in 2020, he doubled down, saying China had “ripped off the United States like no one has ever done before” and labeled the COVID-19 pandemic the “Chinese virus”. Ahead of his return to office, he pledged to force China to “pay” for what he framed as unfair trade practices.
At the peak of the U.S.-China trade war in the preceding year, the two powers imposed reciprocal tariffs totaling over 100% on each other’s goods. A fragile truce followed the escalation, and this summit was framed around three core unanswered questions: whether the truce will hold, what long-term trade deal will replace it, whether Beijing can help broker a diplomatic resolution to the ongoing Iran crisis that has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, and how the two powers will navigate the long-simmering tensions over Taiwan – the self-governing island that China claims as its sovereign territory, and which the U.S. maintains unofficial diplomatic and defense ties with.
Beijing’s elaborate welcome was not just a gesture of hospitality to Trump and the 30 top American CEOs accompanying him on the trip; it was a deliberate display of geopolitical strength broadcast to audiences across the United States and the entire globe. Almost immediately after talks got underway, Chinese state media released comments from Xi that made clear Taiwan remains a major flashpoint that could derail progress between the two sides. When reporters pressed both leaders on whether they had discussed Taiwan during their Temple of Heaven visit, neither leader responded to the question.
John Delury, senior fellow at the Asia Society’s Center on US-China Relations, framed the summit as a visible marker of shifting global power dynamics. “We are witnessing a historical change,” Delury explained. “I hesitate to put too much on this specific summit, but the inexorable rise of China to a place where it is legitimately rivaling the U.S. – that is now happening before our eyes. Beijing is now the second world capital.”
Xi has positioned himself as a steady, predictable global leader in contrast to what many global observers frame as Trump’s mercurial policy style. In the years since Trump’s first term, China has expanded its global trade reach dramatically, pre-emptively building new economic partnerships to offset the risk of renewed U.S. tariffs. Over the past year, China demonstrated its economic leverage during the trade war: it matched Trump’s tariffs tit-for-tat, and restricted exports of rare earth minerals – critical inputs for advanced global manufacturing – forcing Washington to return to negotiations and agree to lower tariff rates.
Today, China controls 30% of global manufacturing output, processes over 90% of the world’s rare earth minerals, and produces between 60% and 80% of global supplies of solar panels, wind turbines and electric vehicles. Xi has indicated he believes this summit has already made clear to the U.S. and the world just how deeply dependent global economies are on Chinese manufacturing and technology. While ongoing international concerns over China’s human rights record and its close diplomatic ties to Russia and North Korea persist, those issues have been pushed to the background amid Trump’s broader reshaping of the global world order. Many global analysts now see the trajectory of global power shifting in China’s favor.
China enters these talks with a clear upper hand, as Trump faces domestic political headwinds of his own, including sinking approval ratings, and international pressure over the ongoing Iran crisis that has shut down the Strait of Hormuz – a critical global energy shipping lane whose closure has sent shockwaves through the global economy. Trump has publicly said he is counting on Beijing’s help to reopen the corridor. As Iran’s largest trading partner with decades of close diplomatic ties to Tehran, Beijing holds significant influence over the Iranian government. If Xi can help push Tehran toward negotiations to de-escalate the crisis, that would give China even greater leverage in talks with the U.S.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio framed the U.S. position ahead of the trip, telling Fox News, “It’s in their interest to resolve this. And we hope to convince them to play a more active role.” But analysts widely agree China will demand major concessions in exchange for cooperation on Iran. According to Chinese state media, Xi has already made clear to Trump during closed-door talks that the Taiwan issue has the potential to spark direct conflict between the two powers. Analysts expect Xi will pressure the U.S. to delay or halt arms sales to Taiwan – a requirement that would put Washington in a difficult position, as it is legally bound to provide the island with defensive military capabilities. Officials in Taipei are closely watching the summit’s outcome with significant anxiety.
This visit differs from Trump’s first trip to China in key ways: unlike his first visit, when former First Lady Melania Trump accompanied him, this trip centers heavily on the high-powered U.S. business delegation, which includes some of the biggest names in American tech and industry: Tesla CEO Elon Musk, Apple CEO Tim Cook, and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, all of whom attended the opening state banquet.
Trump has centered his trade demands around pushing China to further open its domestic markets to increased access for U.S. companies. As of the end of the first day of talks, few concrete details of any potential deal have been released to the public. A preliminary White House statement only confirmed that the two sides “discussed ways to enhance economic cooperation”, including expanding U.S. firms’ access to the Chinese market and facilitating Chinese investment in U.S. domestic industries. On the Iran issue, the statement added that “both countries agreed that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon” and “the Strait of Hormuz must remain open to support the free flow of energy”.
Additional talks between the two leaders are scheduled for the following day, which are expected to yield more concrete details on potential agreements. For Trump, a tangible diplomatic win from the summit is critical to boost his sinking domestic approval ratings back home. Xi, for his part, has signaled China is open to expanding cooperation in trade and agriculture, a move widely interpreted as a signal Beijing is prepared to increase purchases of U.S. soybeans, beef, and Boeing commercial aircraft.
The two leaders have agreed to a new framing of the bilateral relationship as “constructive, strategic and stable”, a positioning that will guide U.S.-China ties for the next three years. At the same time, China is grappling with its own serious domestic economic challenges, including rising youth unemployment, uneven post-pandemic growth, a persistent real estate sector crisis, and record high levels of local government debt. While Beijing seeks a global order less centered on U.S. hegemony, it still has a critical strategic interest in maintaining stable, functional relations with Washington.
At the close of the opening day’s state banquet, after remarking that he had received a “magnificent welcome like no other” in Beijing, Trump formally invited Xi to visit Washington D.C. for a return summit in September. Xi struck a unifying tone in response, saying that the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” and Trump’s campaign slogan “Make America great again” can progress hand in hand. He closed his remarks with a toast to the future of both nations, ending the evening with a single word: “Cheers.”
