作者: admin

  • Ben Gvir supporters hand out gun-shaped keyrings to Israeli students

    Ben Gvir supporters hand out gun-shaped keyrings to Israeli students

    Ahead of Israel’s upcoming national elections, a traditional high school mock election designed to engage young voters with the country’s political process devolved into chaos this week after far-right supporters distributed inflammatory, weapon-themed promotional items to students.

    Supporters of Itamar Ben Gvir, Israel’s far-right National Security Minister and leader of the Otzma Yehudit party, handed out gun-shaped keyrings emblazoned with the slogan “Guns Save Lives” to 11th and 12th grade students at Blich High School in Ramat Gan on Thursday. Local Israeli newspaper Haaretz first reported that the keyrings – which also double as bottle openers – either carried the shape of a firearm or featured an image of Ben Gvir holding one. Party activists also attempted to distribute noose-shaped keyrings, but the school’s headmaster intervened to stop the distribution before they could be handed out.

    Otzma Yehudit has defended the promotional stunt, framing it as a creative way to educate younger generations on Ben Gvir’s long-standing push for looser gun laws in Israel. The minister’s weapons reform agenda has already resulted in expanded gun access for Israelis living in settlements across the occupied West Bank: in January this year, Ben Gvir approved gun licenses for Israeli settlers in 18 additional settlements in the territory. The far-right party has also championed other hardline policies, including a Knesset-approved law passed in March that makes the death penalty the default punishment for Palestinians convicted of lethal attacks against Israelis in Israeli military courts.

    The promotional stunt quickly turned the school’s annual mock election into a scene of disorder. Multiple political figures from opposing parties reported verbal harassment and physical intimidation from Otzma Yehudit supporters. Gilad Kariv, a Knesset member for the left-wing Jewish Democrats party, wrote on his social media platform X that supporters of Ben Gvir shoved, cursed, and elbowed his activists during his speech, and threw bottles toward the stage. Merav Ben Ari, a lawmaker from the centre-right Together party, also reported being targeted, writing on X that supporters threw a cup at her while shouting slogans in support of Ben Gvir. She condemned the far-right minister’s time in office as being defined by “violence and racism”.

    When the votes were counted, the centre-right Yashar party led by Gadi Eisenkot secured first place with 32.2% of the student vote, followed by Naftali Bennett’s Together party with 22.4%. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ruling Likud party came third with 15.5%, while Ben Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit placed fourth with 9.4% – outperforming the Jewish Democrats, who earned 7.1%.

    While the results put Otzma Yehudit behind mainstream centre-right and right-wing parties, the 9.4% showing marks a notable increase in support for the far-right party at Blich High School compared to the 2022 election cycle. Two years ago, when Otzma Yehudit ran as part of a joint alliance with Religious Zionism, the bloc only earned 4.6% of the vote at the school. This year, Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism combined earned 11% of the vote, with an additional 3.6% going to the new far-right party Amcha Yisrael, which has publicly called for the expulsion of all Palestinians from the Gaza Strip.

    Kariv framed the overall results as evidence that contrary to popular narratives, not all young Israeli voters have shifted sharply to the far right. Blich High School’s headmaster emphasized that the event aligned with the school’s mission of civic education, telling Israeli outlet Maariv that “civic education is also education for pluralism, tolerance, and the ability to conduct disagreement with respect and attentiveness,” and praised participating students for creating what he called a “fruitful and enriching day.”

    This mock election comes as Israel prepares for its first national election since the outbreak of the Israel-Gaza war in October 2023, with young voters poised to play a key role in the outcome. Recent independent research has documented rising anti-Palestinian sentiment among segments of young Israeli society, with some supporting the exclusion of Palestinian citizens of Israel from public life. Students who have publicly opposed Israel’s military campaign in Gaza have also faced formal disciplinary action from school authorities: earlier this year, an 11th grade student in Ramat Gan was summoned to a disciplinary hearing after distributing flyers urging classmates to refuse compulsory military service.

  • Watch: Trump says ban on some news outlets is ‘because they’re fake news’

    Watch: Trump says ban on some news outlets is ‘because they’re fake news’

    In a controversial move that sent shockwaves through American political journalism, former U.S. President Donald Trump announced on a Friday that he was moving immediately to revoke press access to the White House for three prominent media organizations: CNN, MSNBC, and Politico. In direct, on-camera comments that were captured on video and rapidly circulated across social media and news platforms, Trump explicitly tied the restrictive ban to his longstanding public criticism of the outlets, declaring the action was being taken ‘because they’re fake news.’

    The decision marked a sharp escalation of the Trump administration’s ongoing conflict with the national press corps, which had been a defining feature of his tenure from its earliest days. For months leading up to the announcement, Trump had repeatedly taken to social media and public rallies to denounce coverage from the three outlets, framing critical reporting on his administration’s policies, personnel, and conduct as intentionally misleading and biased against his presidency.

    Media freedom advocates and industry groups immediately condemned the ban as an unprecedented attack on the principle of a free press, which is protected under the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. Critics noted that restricting access to official government spaces based on a leader’s disapproval of coverage undermines the core role of the press as a watchdog over governmental power, leaving the public without independent information about the actions of their elected leaders. Supporters of the move, aligned with Trump’s base, echoed his claims of widespread media bias, arguing that the outlets had long abandoned objective reporting in favor of sustained opposition to his agenda.

  • Turkey busts Israel-linked ‘scam empire’ behind alleged $266m fraud

    Turkey busts Israel-linked ‘scam empire’ behind alleged $266m fraud

    In a major coordinated law enforcement operation targeting cross-border financial crime, Turkish security forces have taken down an elaborate organized fraud network with alleged ties to Israeli principals that scammed victims across three continents out of at least $266 million over two years, Turkish Justice Minister Akin Gurlek announced Friday.

    The multi-agency investigation, carried out in partnership with Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MIT) and Interpol, uncovered 42 fraudulent call centers operated under the cover of 28 fake corporate entities, with 239 suspects currently identified as persons of interest in the case. Dawn raids were executed simultaneously across 236 locations in two major Turkish regions, Istanbul and Mugla, to disrupt the network’s operations.

    According to Gurlek, investigators confirmed that individuals with documented links to Israel served as the primary owners and final beneficiaries of all the front companies involved in the scheme. Turkish law enforcement officials have connected this bust to the notorious transnational criminal syndicate widely referred to as the “Scam Empire”, a network that has operated across dozens of countries for more than a decade. The criminal group was first brought to widespread public attention in an expose by the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP), which previously detailed how scam rings based out of Israel and European countries stole hundreds of millions from defrauded investors via deceptive telephone-based investment schemes.

    The mechanics of the fraud follow a well-worn but effective pattern documented by investigators. The network hired multilingual customer service agents to lure victims from target regions into fraudulent foreign exchange investment schemes. Once victims signed up, they were granted access to controlled, fake investment platforms that displayed artificially inflated fabricated profits. This deceptive display convinced victims to deposit increasingly large sums of money, which was immediately siphoned off by the organizers. All stolen funds were quickly transferred out of Turkey to offshore bank accounts and untraceable cryptocurrency wallets, officials confirmed. Individual victims lost anywhere from $10,000 to hundreds of thousands of dollars each, according to current victim statements and evidence collected during the raids.

    One of the key alleged masterminds of the Turkish operation, identified only by the initials YA, is an Israeli national who also holds Portuguese citizenship, Turkish investigators confirmed. This bust is not the first high-profile case of Israeli-linked investment fraud targeting global victims: in 2016, Reuters exposed a similar scheme run by Israeli trading firm NRGbinary, which stole millions of dollars from European investors before Israeli authorities shut the company down later that year. In a 2025 follow-up investigation, OCCRP mapped out two similar scam call center networks operating out of Israel, Eastern Europe and Georgia that persuaded more than 32,000 global victims to invest a combined total of at least $275 million.

    Investigators familiar with the current Turkish probe say the network mirrored operational structures documented in the earlier OCCRP investigation. Call center agents were required to use entirely false identities and forged supporting documents to build trust with victims. Against a backdrop of escalating diplomatic tensions between Turkey and Israel in recent years, Turkish security officials assess that Israel-based scam networks have actively shifted a portion of their operational infrastructure to Turkey to avoid detection by domestic law enforcement in their home country.

    To avoid being traced, organizers set up empty shell companies that serve as front operations for the scam call centers, then hire local staff fluent in a wide range of target market languages, including Japanese, Hindi, French and Spanish. Employees are hired under specific roles labeled “conversion agents” and “retention agents”, each with a clear function in luring and manipulating victims. All new recruits undergo a one-week training program where they are assigned fake aliases and coached to build entirely false personal backstories designed to impress victims and build false credibility, including common claims that the agent is an elite graduate of Oxford University or another top international institution.

    To protect the network from infiltration, organizers require all new hires to pass a polygraph test before starting work, designed to uncover any hidden connections to law enforcement or security agencies. Strict internal rules govern day-to-day operations: speaking Hebrew inside call center facilities is completely banned, and agents never identify the actual shell company they work for. Instead, they pose as representatives of fake investment platforms whose names are changed on a rotating basis by the Israeli organizers to evade tracking. One of the most strictly enforced rules, investigators found, is that the network never targets Israeli citizens for scams, limiting all fraudulent activity to victims outside of Israel.

    In their assessment of the network’s structure, Turkish investigators found that transnational scam networks operated by Israeli fraudsters have cultivated what the syndicate describes as a mutually beneficial, “win-win” relationship with the state of Israel, though no further evidence or details of this relationship were provided in the official announcement.

  • Donald Trump says he is banning CNN and Politico from White House

    Donald Trump says he is banning CNN and Politico from White House

    U.S. President Donald Trump has reignited his long-running war with the American press, announcing an immediate ban on White House access for three prominent outlets — CNN, MSNBC (referred to as MS NOW in the original announcement) and Politico. The latest escalation of tensions between the Trump administration and independent media came via a lengthy public post on Truth Social Friday, where the president accused the targeted organizations of a consistent pattern of publishing “fiction or lies” about his administration. Notably, Trump offered no specific examples of alleged false reporting to back up his claim.

    The exact parameters of the ban remain unclear as of publication, with no official confirmation on whether reporters from the three outlets will be fully blocked from entering White House grounds or restricted press access areas. In the hours immediately following the announcement, reporters from both CNN and Politico remained on-site at the White House complex, leaving the implementation of the order uncertain.

    “Media outlets shouldn’t be able to constantly write or report fiction and lies when covering the President of the United States, the Trump administration or the United States of America,” Trump wrote in his post, adding a warning that “Other news outlets to follow.” No specific problematic stories or reporting projects were named as the trigger for the access restriction.

    This latest move builds on months of escalating conflict between the Trump White House and the Washington press corps that began when Trump returned to office in January 2025. Just one month after his inauguration, the administration seized control of the White House press pool — the rotating group of reporters that accompanies the president for on-the-record coverage — ending a 100-plus-year arrangement where the pool was managed by the independent White House Correspondents’ Association.

    That same February, the administration barred Associated Press reporters and photographers from restricted access spaces including the Oval Office and Air Force One. The punishment came in response to the AP’s refusal to adopt the Trump administration’s preferred renaming of the Gulf of Mexico to the “Gulf of America.” The AP immediately filed a federal lawsuit over the restriction, and the case remains pending in court.

    Open conflict between Trump and reporters is now a regular occurrence during on-the-record encounters, with the president repeatedly labeling critical coverage “fake news” and launching personal attacks on reporters he labels “rude.” This is not the first time Trump has targeted CNN specifically: during his first presidential term, he revoked the White House press pass of veteran CNN correspondent Jim Acosta, only restoring the credential after CNN filed a successful lawsuit against the administration.

    Throughout his political career, Trump has pursued legal action against a wide range of major U.S. and international news organizations, including high-profile cases against The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and the BBC. The BBC has confirmed it has formally requested comment from the White House on Trump’s latest announcement, and legal experts widely expect the new ban to face immediate legal challenges from the targeted outlets and national press freedom advocacy groups.

  • Is the Kennedy Center losing ‘hundreds of millions of dollars’?

    Is the Kennedy Center losing ‘hundreds of millions of dollars’?

    A viral claim has recently circulated claiming that the iconic John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington, D.C. is facing catastrophic losses amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars, sparking widespread discussion about the financial health of one of the nation’s most prominent cultural institutions. But a thorough review of the center’s 2024 official financial records tells a far different story. When all sources of revenue—including philanthropic contributions from private donors and public grant funding from federal and local arts agencies—are fully accounted for, the Kennedy Center actually closed its latest financial cycle with a multi-million dollar surplus. The Kennedy Center, which serves as the United States’ national cultural hub, hosts thousands of performances, educational programs, and community outreach initiatives every year, relying on a mix of ticket sales, private donations, and public grants to cover its operating costs. Critics and misinformed sources have focused solely on operating gaps from core ticket revenue to inflate claims of massive financial failure, ignoring the critical role of contributed income that the center has always depended on to fulfill its non-profit public mission. The 2024 financial data confirms that the institution’s balanced budgeting strategy has delivered a positive financial outcome, quelling unfounded rumors about its fiscal stability. The surplus comes as the Kennedy Center continues to expand its access programs, bringing performing arts experiences to underserved communities across the country and maintaining its status as a leading global destination for cultural exchange. Industry analysts note that for major non-profit arts institutions, structural operating gaps covered by philanthropy and public grants are standard practice, and the 2024 surplus reflects strong management of both fundraising and operational expenses amid ongoing post-pandemic recovery for the live performing arts sector.

  • Watch: Patrick Clancy’s new wife describes him as ‘selfless father’

    Watch: Patrick Clancy’s new wife describes him as ‘selfless father’

    For the first time since the conclusion of Lindsay Clancy’s high-profile murder trial, Patrick Clancy and his new wife have opened up about their experiences in a televised interview. The conversation, conducted by CBS, the US-based broadcasting partner of the UK’s BBC, marks the couple’s first public comments since the trial reached its verdict.

    During the interview, Patrick Clancy’s new spouse described him as a deeply committed and selfless father, pushing back against some of the narratives that have emerged about Clancy in the wake of the legal proceedings. The interview comes after months of intense media scrutiny surrounding the case, which gripped public attention following the initial allegations and subsequent trial. The couple’s decision to speak publicly comes as they attempt to regain a sense of normalcy for their family, addressing lingering questions from the public and press while sharing their perspective on life after the trial.

  • Ms Rachel matches Macklemore with $1m donation for Palestinian children

    Ms Rachel matches Macklemore with $1m donation for Palestinian children

    A prominent children’s content creator has stepped forward to match a landmark $1 million donation from rapper Macklemore to the Palestine Children’s Relief Fund, issuing a public call for other high-profile, wealthy celebrities to use their platform and privilege to stand up for Palestinian children amid the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

    Rachel Griffin-Accurso, known widely to her young audience and their parents as Ms Rachel, announced her pledge in an Instagram post Thursday. The announcement came just days after Macklemore was dropped as an opening act from Ed Sheeran’s North American tour, a move the rapper says was orchestrated by New England Patriots owner and pro-Israeli businessman Robert Kraft, following Macklemore’s on-stage comments condemning Israeli military action in Gaza and declaring “Free Palestine.”

    In her social media statement, Griffin-Accurso wrote: “I’ll match Macklemore’s donation and I invite every wealthy white celebrity to match it and speak out against the genocide in Gaza. Over 20,000 precious Palestinian children have been killed and children continue to be killed every day. We’ve a moral obligation to use our privilege and platforms to protect children and human rights.”

    This is not the first time the children’s content creator has backed Palestinian relief efforts. Griffin-Accurso joined the Palestine Children’s Relief Fund as a global ambassador in 2025, building on months of prior fundraising work for the non-profit. Her prior advocacy includes highlighting the stories of conflict survivors on her digital platform, including a meeting with Rahaf, a young girl who survived Israeli airstrikes in Gaza, and she previously organized a 2024 fundraising drive through Save the Children to support children displaced and harmed by the ongoing war.

    Shortly after Griffin-Accurso shared her pledge, Macklemore—born Benjamin Haggerty—publicly responded to her post with warm praise: “Wow. Love you so much.”

    Macklemore first announced his own $1 million donation last week, committing all net proceeds from his sets on Sheeran’s tour to Palestinian support organizations. In his initial statement, the rapper wrote: “With everything that has happened over the last 48 hours, I want to bring the conversation back to where it belongs, to the Palestinian people who are still being killed, still living under military occupation, and still fighting for their freedom. Whatever we disagree about, perhaps we can agree on this: Palestinian lives are worth protecting.”

    Macklemore was removed from the tour line-up after his September 4 and 5 performances at New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium, where he openly addressed the war in Gaza, called for freedom for Palestine, and performed his protest track *Hind’s Hall*, named after the late four-year-old Palestinian girl Hind Rajab who was killed by Israeli forces while trapped in a car with her extended family.

    Following Macklemore’s removal, every remaining supporting act pulled out of the tour in a show of solidarity. Artists including Lukas Graham, Aaron Rowe, Finneas and Beoga all announced their departures from the tour schedule within an hour of one another on Tuesday.

    This reporting was originally sourced from independent outlet Middle East Eye, which provides dedicated, unfiltered coverage of events across the Middle East and North Africa region.

  • Gaza’s children with Down syndrome struggle to rebuild skills lost to genocide

    Gaza’s children with Down syndrome struggle to rebuild skills lost to genocide

    Dust clinging to her clothes and exhaustion weighing on her shoulders, 13-year-old Heba Alataar completes the long walk from her displacement camp to a small makeshift tent in central Gaza’s al-Zawaida. What this tattered canvas structure lacks in infrastructure, it makes up for in hope: it is the new temporary home of classes run by the Right to Live Society (RLS), the only organization that long provided specialized support for children like Heba, who has Down syndrome.

    Inside the tent, split crudely into two classrooms, Heba sits cross-legged on the bare ground alongside her peers—all children with Down syndrome—working slowly to reclaim skills they lost amid the violence and upheaval of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza. Heba is one of more than 1,000 children with Down syndrome in the besieged enclave, a group that has suffered disproportionately amid the wider humanitarian catastrophe that has unfolded across Gaza since October 2023.

    Before the war, RLS was a lifeline for generations of these children and their families. Founded in 1993, the organization operated three purpose-built facilities across Gaza, employing 200 trained staff to deliver a full spectrum of care: early intervention support from birth, specialized education, physical rehabilitation, and mental health counseling for caregivers navigating the unique challenges of raising a child with Down syndrome. For Heba’s father Alaa Alattar, that support transformed his deepest fears into hope.

    “When I first learned my daughter had Down syndrome, I cried for days. I had no understanding of her condition, no idea how to care for her, and I was terrified for what her future would hold,” Alattar told Middle East Eye. “All of that fear melted away when we joined RLS. We saw how the children were cared for, how much they could achieve, and we knew Heba would be okay.”

    By age 10, Heba had mastered foundational skills: basic comprehension, clear speech, independent personal hygiene, and she was just beginning to learn to read and write. Alattar says he had started to imagine a full, meaningful future for his daughter—until Israeli attacks destroyed every RLS facility across Gaza in the months that followed the outbreak of war. Hundreds of children with disabilities were killed in the bombardment, and many more remain missing. The survivors were displaced, trapped in overcrowded camps with no access to the specialized care they depended on, and the trauma of constant violence erased years of slow, hard-won progress.

    Watching Heba lose every skill she had gained was devastating for Alattar. “The war took everything from her. She lost all her skills, her interests, her daily routine. She went right back to square one, as if she had never received any care or education at all,” he said, his voice breaking. “There are no words to describe that heartbreak—years of my daughter’s hard work, the tireless effort of her teachers and our family, all gone in an instant. To see my little girl depressed, sitting alone in a displacement camp, that is a pain no parent should ever know.”

    Other families share the same agony. Nabila Abed Rabbo says her 13-year-old daughter Saja, who also has Down syndrome, regressed completely after months of terror and displacement. “Every explosion left her terrified. She would cover her ears, scream, and cling to me, refusing to let me leave her side,” Abed Rabbo said. “Between the constant fear and the terrible conditions in the camp, Saja lost every basic skill she had. She couldn’t even use the toilet anymore, and diapers were almost impossible to get because of the blockade. We had no other options.”

    Bahjat Sultan’s 14-year-old daughter Fatima has experienced similar regression. “The war changed her completely. She lost the ability to talk about her feelings, and she started having outbursts of aggressive behavior that we never saw before,” Sultan said. “At night, she can’t sleep. She wakes up screaming from nightmares, terrified all over again.”

    Raoufa Salama, RLS’s director of rehabilitation programs, explains that the war’s impact on this vulnerable group has been catastrophic. Beyond the widespread loss of skills in communication, self-care, and social interaction, the organization has recorded a sharp, unexpected rise in new cases of Down syndrome births. Before the war, RLS saw one to two new cases a week; today, that number has jumped to four to five. Salama attributes this increase to widespread exposure to toxic pollution from Israeli explosives and the chronic extreme psychological stress that all pregnant people in Gaza now endure.

    Amid all the loss, fragments of hope remain. Fatima Sultan has carried her old RLS uniform with her through every round of displacement, refusing to leave it behind. “She puts it on all the time and asks me to take her back to the center,” her father said. “I just promise her we’ll go soon, and I hold on to the hope that one day we will.”

    In July 2024, the surviving RLS team began the slow work of rebuilding their services from scratch. Working out of makeshift tents across three locations in Gaza, the team restarted programming with recreational activities and home visits, eventually expanding back to early intervention, specialized education, and rehabilitation. Their core goals: support families through trauma, help children regain lost skills, and raise awareness of the unique risks disabled children face amid ongoing war and displacement.

    For families who had been turned away from every other school because of their children’s condition, the return of RLS brought overwhelming joy. “I tried to enroll Saja in so many different schools, and they all rejected her because of her disability,” Abed Rabbo said. “When we got the invitation from RLS, she was so happy she could finally go to her own school, learn, and make friends.”

    Today, RLS serves more than 1,000 children with Down syndrome and autism across its three tent sites. But the obstacles remain nearly insurmountable. The 16-year blockade of Gaza and widespread destruction have left the organization facing crippling shortages of every essential: no proper classroom space, no specialized educational equipment, no consistent access to medical supplies. Teachers improvise, cutting educational materials from cardboard left over from aid packages and scavenging bits of colored paper to make learning tools.

    The biggest threat, however, remains ongoing violence. Even after a ceasefire was announced in October 2023, Israel continues to carry out near-daily attacks across Gaza, and maintains a near-total blockade on most aid. Since the ceasefire took effect, Israeli forces have killed at least 1,386 Palestinians, including 300 children. Fourteen-year-old RLS student Ahmed Al-Mabhouh was shot five times by an Israeli soldier while playing near his home east of Al-Bureij refugee camp, leaving him severely wounded and unable to attend classes. Each new round of violence and displacement can erase weeks of progress, sending children back into the trauma that erased their skills in the first place.

    Still, against all odds, the children and their families are pushing forward. Slowly but steadily, they are regaining lost skills, rebuilding routines, and reclaiming their joy. For Heba, the center has already transformed her life. “Learning is her whole new routine now. It takes up most of her day, and she’s always so excited to go to class,” Alattar said. “She comes home and tells us all about her friends and what she learned. She’s happier, more focused, and we are so grateful for everything the RLS team has done for us.”

    Watching his daughter progress again has restored Alattar’s hope for the future—even as he waits for the war to end for good. “I hope that the fighting stops completely, that our children never have to fear air strikes or being forced to run from their homes again,” he said. “I hope Heba gets a safe, proper place to learn, that she can fully recover, thrive, and one day achieve our shared dream: she wants to be a teacher for other children with Down syndrome.”

  • Turkey to halt Iranian Mahan Air flights over US sanctions risk

    Turkey to halt Iranian Mahan Air flights over US sanctions risk

    In a direct response to recent U.S. Treasury sanctions targeting three Turkish ground service and logistics firms for ties to Iran’s privately owned Mahan Air, Turkey has announced it will halt all flight operations for the Iranian carrier, senior Turkish government officials confirmed to Middle East Eye in a Friday briefing.

    The entry into force of the suspension is set for September 21, and will cover every inbound and outbound route operated by Mahan Air between Turkey and Iran, according to the officials. Earlier this month, the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) rolled out a wide-ranging sanctions regime that targets not just Iranian civilian aviation firms, but also third-party ground handling providers, cargo operators, and aircraft parts suppliers that do business with blacklisted Iranian entities.

    The sanctions framework included a short grace period for global businesses to wind down existing commercial relationships with sanctioned Iranian firms, while issuing a clear warning that any third-country service providers continuing engagements could face punitive U.S. measures. Three Turkish firms — S Sistem, Mes Cargo, and Sky Phoenix — were specifically named in the sanctions round for their work with Mahan Air, with U.S. regulators citing activity that includes supplying aircraft components, providing general sales agency services, and facilitating aircraft purchases for the carrier.

    One senior Turkish official explained to Middle East Eye that the blacklisting of the three Turkish-based companies makes clear that risks from U.S. enforcement now reach every segment of Mahan Air’s operational supply chain in Turkey. “The risk now extends to every Turkish entity providing services to Mahan Air, from airport operations and ground handling to ticketing and banking. This could disrupt services and trigger further investigations,” the official said.

    Turkish officials were careful to clarify that this decision does not represent a blanket ban on all Iranian air carriers operating in Turkish airspace and airports. Instead, the Turkish government will maintain a dynamic risk assessment process for other Iranian airlines, weighing factors including its existing bilateral aviation agreement with Tehran, core flight safety standards, and the potential for additional U.S. sanctions that could expose more Turkish companies to punitive penalties.

    Prior to the suspension, Mahan Air maintained a robust operational footprint in Turkey, running a minimum of three daily flights between Istanbul and Tehran alone. On Friday, the airline itself issued a confirmation that it would end all services to and from Turkey starting September 21, adding that it would also suspend flight operations to Oman and Georgia in a parallel move, expanding the scope of service disruptions for the carrier across the broader Middle East and South Caucasus region.

  • ‘We simply don’t know’ – JP Morgan struggling to forecast oil prices due to Trump’s war with Iran

    ‘We simply don’t know’ – JP Morgan struggling to forecast oil prices due to Trump’s war with Iran

    Leading global investment banking powerhouse JP Morgan has issued an extraordinary public acknowledgment that it cannot reliably forecast how oil prices will shift in the wake of the ongoing US-Iran conflict, telling investors in a candid analyst note that “we simply don’t know how to model the endgame” of the crisis.

    When the conflict first erupted six months prior to the note, JP Morgan’s research team built projections around a set of key assumptions: that the Trump administration would enforce non-negotiable “economic red lines” that it would refuse to cross, making a diplomatic deal to reopen the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz a foregone conclusion by June. The bank identified four clear red lines that it believed would force Washington to seek a rapid resolution: oil prices climbing above $100 per barrel, US inflation hitting 4%, average retail gasoline topping $5 per gallon, and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields reaching 5%.

    Half a year on, however, the situation has flipped: while gasoline still stays below the $5 threshold and inflation has not yet hit the 4% mark, oil prices have rallied back above $100 a barrel in recent weeks, and 10-year Treasury yields have crossed the 5% benchmark. “Many of those lines have been crossed, yet the exit strategy is less clear, not more,” JP Morgan’s commodities research team wrote in the note. “For the first time since the start of the Iran conflict, we don’t have a baseline view. We simply don’t know how to model the endgame.”

    The admission from one of the most influential institutions in global finance lays bare just how difficult it has become to anticipate policy moves from former President Donald Trump amid the escalating regional crisis. An anonymous oil and gas industry source speaking to the BBC noted that it is highly unusual for such a high-profile investment firm to issue such a transparent note acknowledging a total lack of forecasting clarity, but added that the move is an honest reflection of the current high-uncertainty environment surrounding the conflict. Oil prices are a core input for inflation forecasting globally, as the commodity underpins nearly every sector of the modern economy, meaning even small shifts can reshape investment decisions across all asset classes. Currently, “The market is on edge,” JP Morgan analysts noted.

    Adding to the fog of uncertainty, Trump himself confirmed last week that he does not expect the US-Iran war to conclude before November’s U.S. midterm elections. “Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward,” Trump told reporters. “I think it’s going to take a little bit longer than the midterm.”

    Sustained high oil prices have already driven sharp increases in the cost of living across the United States and the globe, with energy and fuel costs rising rapidly ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter heating season. This week, the U.S. Federal Reserve, the country’s central bank, implemented its first interest rate hike in more than three years, and signaled that further increases could continue through 2027 in an effort to cool persistent inflation. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh justified the move by noting that “inflation is too high and has been for too long,” a position Trump has publicly rejected.

    Even with current trading prices above $100 per barrel, JP Morgan analysts estimate that the “fair value” of Brent crude for September sits around $90 a barrel. The gap between fair value and current market pricing, they explained, reflects the extra risk premium traders are adding to account for the growing threat of broader trade disruption across key Middle Eastern chokepoints.

    Beyond the Strait of Hormuz, the note identifies new supply risks emerging at another critical global shipping route: the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, where Iran-backed Yemeni Houthi forces have seized territory at the mouth of the waterway. The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to add additional upward pressure on global oil markets as well. With no clear signals of imminent de-escalation in either conflict, analysts noted that the long-held assumption that global oil supply disruptions would prove temporary is “becoming increasingly difficult to sustain.”