Three months after Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas initially set a timeline for long-awaited Palestinian general elections, the vote has been pushed back once again, casting growing doubt over the long-term legitimacy of the Palestinian Authority (PA) amid a rapidly shifting domestic political landscape.
The delay, formalized via presidential decree on October 10, officially cites two key obstacles: Israeli restrictions on the work of the Palestinian electoral commission, and the dire humanitarian and security conditions across Gaza and the occupied West Bank. While these logistical and contextual barriers are widely acknowledged to be real, political analysts and insiders within Palestinian political circles emphasize that they only explain part of the decision. The unspoken catalyst, they say, is the sudden rise of an unlikely cross-faction opposition alliance that threatened to upend the ruling Fatah party’s strategic electoral calculations and end its decades-long dominance of Palestinian national politics.
The newly formed coalition brings together two longstanding rivals of Abbas: Hamas, the Islamist faction that governs Gaza, and the political faction led by former Fatah heavyweight Mohammed Dahlan. This proposed bloc was structured to unite all major opposition forces and independent Palestinian political figures under a single electoral umbrella, a development that sent shockwaves through Ramallah when it was announced last month.
Following the coalition reveal, Egyptian authorities hosted a flurry of closed-door talks in Cairo bringing together representatives from Fatah, Hamas, Dahlan’s faction, and smaller Palestinian groups. Those negotiations ultimately cleared the path for the delay, shifting the planned election date from November 27, 2026 to September 11, 2027. Senior Fatah official Jibril Rajoub announced earlier this month that Palestinian factions would instead prioritize a “comprehensive national dialogue” in the coming months, aimed at finding “common ground” on core political issues before the vote is held next year. But the diplomatic language of consensus masks a far deeper power struggle over the future direction of Palestinian politics, as Abbas faces growing domestic and international pressure, and the emergent opposition alliance threatens to completely redraw the region’s political map.
The last full Palestinian parliamentary election was held back in 2006, when Hamas secured a surprise parliamentary majority over Fatah, which had held unchallenged control of Palestinian politics for decades. A brief but violent conflict between the two factions in 2007 led to the creation of two separate rival administrations: Hamas consolidated control over Gaza, while Fatah retained authority over the occupied West Bank. For nearly 20 years, repeated attempts to broker national reconciliation and hold new elections have collapsed, leaving Abbas to govern without a renewed, popular electoral mandate.
A senior anonymous Fatah insider speaking to Middle East Eye explained that Abbas’ initial decision to call elections in July was driven largely by mounting international pressure to reset the PA’s flagging legitimacy. “Most of our Palestinian elections take place under external pressure,” the insider noted, pointing to specific pressure from European governments and reform commitments Abbas reportedly made to France. But the original timeline never aligned with the catastrophic realities on the ground. Gaza remains devastated by Israel’s ongoing military campaign in the enclave, where millions of Palestinians are struggling to access basic food, clean water and adequate shelter. In the occupied West Bank, Palestinians grapple with a worsening economic collapse, escalating violence from Israeli settlers, and increasingly tight Israeli restrictions on movement between Palestinian communities.
“The announcement of the elections was surprising and incomprehensible to the Palestinian people,” the insider said. “People in Gaza cannot find food or a place to live, and people talk about elections. I do not think this was an appropriate time for it.”
Prominent Palestinian political analyst Hani al-Masri explained that the original timing also reflected a quiet calculation by PA leadership in Ramallah: that Hamas had been severely weakened by Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, creating a unique opening for Fatah to reclaim lost political ground across the Palestinian territories. But that strategic calculation quickly unraveled. Hamas immediately welcomed the election announcement and declared its intention to participate as part of the broadest possible electoral coalition. Just one month later, the group formalized its partnership with Dahlan’s faction — a striking development given the two sides’ decades-long history of violent rivalry, and Dahlan’s longstanding close ties to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) government.
“The coalition had yet taken its final shape, but the mere fact that its idea emerged had the impact of a thunderbolt on the PA’s leadership,” Masri said. “Initially, there was talk that the coalition would bring in major political forces and prominent individuals, which would be able to win a majority of the seats and change the political landscape.”
Masri added that consistent public opinion polling has recorded steadily declining support for both Fatah and Abbas, driven by deep internal party divisions, widespread corruption allegations, persistent economic hardship, and growing public anger over the PA’s governance. Against this unstable backdrop, the PA made the decision to postpone the elections by nearly a year. Even so, Masri argues that the Hamas-Dahlan alliance is unlikely to dissolve, even with the delay.
Dahlan, a decades-long member of Fatah, rose to prominence as head of the PA’s Preventive Security Force in Gaza after the PA was established under the Oslo Accords in the 1990s. In that role, he oversaw widespread crackdowns, mass arrests, and systematic suppression of Hamas members and supporters. After Hamas won the 2006 parliamentary election, the group accused Dahlan of plotting a coup against its newly formed government. The resulting factional fighting ended with Dahlan being forcibly expelled from Gaza. He later fell out with Abbas and went into self-imposed exile in the UAE, where he has retained close political and personal ties to the country’s ruling leadership. His new political alignment with Hamas has therefore surprised many Palestinians across the political spectrum.
“Hamas needed someone to help it climb down from the tree,” Masri explained of the unlikely partnership. He added that cooperation between the two sides did not emerge suddenly: backchannel contacts over financial assistance to Gaza have been active as far back as 2017, and their partnership intensified dramatically after Israel launched its full-scale military campaign in Gaza in 2023. Since the war began, Dahlan has emerged as a key figure in facilitating the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza, supporting local social initiatives, and building new international political connections for the bloc.
“The money comes from the UAE, but it’s facilitated by Dahlan,” the senior Fatah insider confirmed. He argued that Dahlan’s high-profile role in channelling life-saving assistance to Gaza has significantly boosted his domestic popularity, making a formal return to mainstream Palestinian politics increasingly plausible. The Fatah insider also pointed to widespread frustration with the current PA leadership’s performance in recent months, which has created a political opening for new figures. “People think, well, if not Mohammed Dahlan, then who?” he said. The insider also noted Dahlan’s leading role in backchannel ceasefire talks with the United States focused on ending the current conflict in Gaza.
For Hamas, the alliance comes as the group faces significant financial and political challenges in the aftermath of the war, making it willing to set aside decades of enmity to work with a former rival. Masri argues the alliance could mark the beginning of a completely new political order for Palestinians, but he warns that it risks taking shape without a coherent, unifying national program to guide its governance. “There is a new [political] map taking shape, but it doesn’t have a national programme,” he said. He stressed that any new Palestinian leadership must address the immediate humanitarian needs of Palestinians across Gaza and the occupied West Bank while protecting and advancing the long-term national Palestinian political project. “It is as though, now, in exchange for a loaf of bread and medicine, we are willing to give up many things,” he warned.