Against the backdrop of ongoing conflict and occupation in the Palestinian territories, a newly released public opinion survey from the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research has painted a stark portrait of widespread Palestinian public sentiment on security, political leadership, and long-term national aspirations. The most striking finding from the poll, published Wednesday, is that more than seven out of 10 Palestinians reject any demand for Hamas to disarm before Israel completes a full withdrawal from the Gaza Strip. A full 72% of respondents hold the conviction that if Hamas were to surrender its weapons, Israel would refuse to follow through with a full withdrawal and would resume its large-scale military offensive in the enclave, which respondents and many global observers have characterized as genocide.
The survey comes amid recent diplomatic maneuvering: Hamas has already accepted a ceasefire and governance proposal put forward by Nickolay Mladenov, head of the U.S.-backed Board of Peace. Even with this diplomatic development on the table, however, 40% of Palestinians surveyed expect the current cycle of violence and instability to persist, with ongoing civilian casualties continuing in the months ahead. Israel has already formally rejected the U.S.-backed proposal, dimming immediate hopes for a negotiated end to the conflict. Another 30% of respondents hold a more optimistic outlook, forecasting that a period of calm will take hold, a new interim Gaza administration led by the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza will take power, and long-delayed reconstruction of war-ravaged Gaza can finally begin.
Notably, widespread opposition to early disarmament does not equate to broad satisfaction with existing Palestinian political institutions. The poll documents deep and persistent public anger at the Palestinian Authority (PA) and its long-serving leader, President Mahmoud Abbas. Nearly 79% of all respondents believe Abbas should step down from his position, a figure that has held between 79% and 89% over the past three years, showing consistent public dissatisfaction with his leadership. Corruption is also a top concern: 83% of Palestinians agree that corrupt practices are widespread within PA institutions, and 65% view the authority itself as more of a burden on the Palestinian people than a historic national achievement.
When it comes to picking Abbas’ successor, the clear favorite among the public is Marwan Barghouti, a prominent Palestinian political leader who has been imprisoned by Israeli authorities for more than 20 years. Barghouti earned the support of 39% of respondents as the preferred next leader, outpacing all other potential candidates. Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya came in second with 16% support, followed by former PA official Mohammed Dahlan at 15%, and independent politician Mustafa Barghouti at 6%. In a hypothetical head-to-head presidential election, the gap grows even wider: Barghouti would secure 54% of the vote, compared to 26% for al-Hayya and just 14% for the incumbent Abbas.
The survey results also underscore the pervasive sense of insecurity that shapes daily life for Palestinians across both Gaza and the occupied West Bank. Three-quarters of respondents – 76% – reported that they and their immediate family members do not feel safe in their current homes, with only 23% saying they feel secure. Public trust in international diplomatic bodies involved in Middle East peace efforts remains extremely low: only 24% of Palestinians express trust in the Board of Peace, which oversees the Trump administration’s Gaza peace plan, while 66% say they distrust the body entirely.
In the West Bank, fears of Israeli settlement expansion are near-universal: 87% of respondents there worry that growing Israeli settlements and outposts will eventually force them off their land or out of their homes. Palestinians also remain deeply skeptical that any change in Israel’s leadership will bring meaningful improvement to their conditions. Thirty-four percent believe Israeli policy toward Palestinians would remain unchanged even if the opposition took power, 33% expect policy to worsen under a new Israeli government, and just 28% hold out hope that policy would improve if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were removed from office.
Even amid the catastrophic destruction of Gaza and accelerating Israeli annexation of West Bank land, the core national aspiration of the Palestinian people remains clear: 43% of respondents identified achieving a full Israeli withdrawal to the 1967 armistice lines and establishing an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital as the highest priority for the Palestinian people moving forward.