The 79th Cannes Film Festival, one of the most prestigious annual gatherings in global cinema, is set to conclude this Saturday with the coveted Palme d’Or award ceremony, the crowning honor of the international film calendar. This year, however, the race for the top prize has defied conventional expectations, with no clear favorite emerging from the 22 competing features – a dynamic that has left pundits and audiences guessing heading into the closing event.
By widespread critical consensus, the 2025 edition of Cannes has not been considered among the festival’s standout years. Major Hollywood studios and A-list productions largely skipped this year’s lineup, draining some of the red carpet glitz and mainstream media buzz that typically surrounds the French Riviera event. Many of the officially selected competition titles also failed to deliver knockout reviews from attending critics, with the global cultural conversation that Cannes usually fuels far more muted than in past editions.
Yet this lack of a consensus front-runner has opened up unprecedented flexibility for the nine-member jury, led by acclaimed South Korean director Park Chan-wook, who won the Palme d’Or himself in 2022 for *Decision to Leave*. A Palme d’Or victory is career-changing for any filmmaker: it instantly catapults a film’s global profile, brings major distribution offers across international markets, and often positions the winning work as an early contender for Academy Award recognition.
Heading into the final days, several titles have risen to the top of critics’ prediction lists. These include Polish director Pawel Pawlikowski’s *Fatherland*, a black-and-white meditation on the intertwined fates of art and politics in post-World War II Europe; Japanese auteur Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s *All of a Sudden*, a sprawling three-hour tender drama centered on elder care; Russian filmmaker Andrey Zvyagintsev’s *Minotaur*, a gritty take on crime and moral reckoning in modern Russia; and Romanian director Cristian Mungiu’s *Fjord*, a tense thriller set in Norway that explores the failures of the country’s child welfare system.
In a late twist on the festival’s penultimate day, a surprising dark horse candidate surged into contention. *The Black Ball*, directed by Spanish duo Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi, earned one of the most enthusiastic audience receptions of the entire 12-day event. The sweeping multi-generational drama follows the interconnected lives of three gay men from different eras, resonating deeply with viewers and emerging as a surprise fan favorite.
Predicting the Palme d’Or has always been notoriously difficult, even when a clear favorite exists. Jury deliberations are held entirely behind closed doors, and any of the 22 competing films are eligible to take home the top honor. This year’s jury also boasts a diverse roster of global talent, including Oscar-winning director Chloé Zhao, actress Demi Moore and Swedish star Stellan Skarsgård, making their collective decision even harder to forecast.
In the lead-up to Saturday’s ceremony, winning contenders are notified that they will receive an award but are not told which honor they will take home. In addition to the Palme d’Or, the jury will hand out awards for best actress, best actor, the Grand Prix, and other secondary honors, with standard festival practice dictating that only one award is granted per film.
This year, one of the most remarkable streaks in modern cinema is also on the line: American independent distribution label Neon has backed the last six consecutive Palme d’Or winners. The streak includes 2024’s *Anora*, which went on to win the Oscar for Best Picture earlier this year, and 2025’s winner Jafar Panahi’s *It Was Just an Accident*. Whether the distribution company can extend its unprecedented run remains to be seen.
The closing ceremony will also proceed with one notable absence. Legendary entertainer Barbra Streisand was originally scheduled to attend to receive an honorary Palme d’Or for her lifetime contribution to cinema, but a knee injury forced her to cancel her trip. Festival organizers have confirmed they will still proceed with the tribute to Streisand in her absence.