LONDON – Just eight months after securing a landslide national general election victory, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer finds himself locked in a battle to hold onto his office, following a catastrophic string of losses for his Labour Party in last week’s local elections. Political analysts warn that if the poor local election performance is replicated at the next national vote, Labour will be swept out of power entirely.
Starmer has borne the brunt of growing frustration within the party over plummeting public approval, with multiple factors driving the downward trend. Critics point to a string of poorly executed policy missteps, a widespread perception that the prime minister has failed to articulate a clear, compelling long-term vision for the country, and ongoing turbulence in the British economy. Additional questions have been raised about Starmer’s political judgment, most notably over his decision to appoint Peter Mandelson as British ambassador to Washington, despite Mandelson’s well-documented connections to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
While the next UK general election is not constitutionally required to be held until 2029, British parliamentary rules allow a governing party to replace its leader mid-term without triggering a full national vote. A growing bloc of Labour lawmakers is now pushing for an immediate leadership change, arguing it is the only way to steady the beleaguered government and fend off electoral threats from both the far right and far left of UK politics.
“We have to change and we have to do it quickly,” said Labour Member of Parliament Catherine West. “We have to lay out a timetable and we have to turn this ship around.” Despite the growing calls for departure, ousting a sitting Labour leader is far from a simple process, as the party has no recent institutional history of removing mid-term leaders, unlike the main opposition Conservative Party.
There are multiple pathways that could lead to Starmer’s exit, varying widely in complexity. The most straightforward scenario would see Starmer voluntarily announce his resignation, which would automatically trigger a formal leadership contest. Such an announcement could come as soon as this week, if Starmer’s own Cabinet members deliver a clear message at their weekly Tuesday meeting that he has lost the confidence of the parliamentary party.
If Starmer steps down immediately, the Cabinet and Labour’s National Executive Committee would appoint an interim prime minister and interim party leader, typically a figure not running in the leadership contest. Current Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy is widely seen as a likely fit for this temporary role.
Under Labour’s formal rulebook, any candidate for leader must secure the backing of at least one-fifth of the party’s sitting House of Commons lawmakers – a threshold that currently stands at 81 supporters. More than 70 Labour MPs have already publicly called on Starmer to lay out a departure timetable, a clear signal of widespread internal discontent, even though no formal challenge has yet been launched.
Once candidates meet the parliamentary support threshold, they must then secure backing from 5% of local Labour constituency parties, or from at least three major affiliated groups including trade unions and cooperative societies. After that, eligible party members and affiliate representatives vote through a ranked-choice electoral system, with the first candidate to win a majority of votes declared the winner. The final step would see King Charles III formally invite the new leader to form a government and take office as prime minister.
Thus far, Starmer has shown no willingness to step aside. On Monday, he reaffirmed his refusal to resign, arguing that leaving office mid-term would “plunge the country into chaos”. If Starmer digs in, he could still face a formal leadership challenge from one or more sitting Labour MPs.
West was the first lawmaker to openly signal a potential challenge, saying Saturday that she would launch a leadership bid if the Cabinet failed to remove Starmer by Monday. She has acknowledged that she currently falls far short of the 81 parliamentary backers needed to force a contest, framing her move instead as an effort to pressure higher-profile potential contenders to enter the race.
Unlike the Conservatives, which removed sitting prime ministers Margaret Thatcher in 1990 and Boris Johnson in 2022, Labour has no recent tradition of mid-term leader ousters. No sitting Labour prime minister has ever been forcibly removed from office, though former prime minister Tony Blair did announce his planned resignation in 2006 following years of low-level internal pressure.
If a formal challenge is launched, any eligible candidates would need to meet the same support thresholds outlined above, while Starmer would automatically be placed on the ballot as the incumbent leader.
Multiple high-ranking Labour figures are already seen as potential contenders if a leadership contest opens up. Health Secretary Wes Streeting has long been linked to leadership ambitions, as has former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner, who stepped down from her post last year after admitting she underpaid taxes on a property purchase; an official investigation into the matter is still ongoing.
Andy Burnham, the widely popular mayor of Greater Manchester, is often cited as one of the strongest potential candidates, but he is currently ineligible to stand for leader because he does not hold a seat in Parliament. Earlier this year, Labour party officials blocked Burnham from running in a special parliamentary by-election, but political insiders say a path could be cleared if Starmer signals he will step down by Labour’s annual autumn conference in September. In that scenario, a sitting Labour MP in a safe seat could resign to trigger a by-election, giving Burnham a chance to win a seat in the Commons. Even that would be no guarantee, however, given the scale of Labour’s recent losses in local contests.