A sobering analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) projects that combined military casualties in Russia’s war against Ukraine could approach two million by spring 2025, representing the highest toll for any major power since World War II. The Washington-based think tank’s comprehensive assessment, released Tuesday, reveals Russia has suffered approximately 1.2 million casualties including up to 325,000 fatalities since launching its full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Ukraine, despite its smaller population and military capacity, has endured between 500,000 to 600,000 casualties with an estimated 140,000 deaths according to the report. These staggering figures emerge as both nations continue to manipulate casualty reporting for strategic purposes, with Moscow officially acknowledging only 6,000 military deaths amid systematic suppression of accurate loss documentation in Russian media.
The CSIS analysis, incorporating data from independent Russian news outlet Mediazona, BBC research, British government estimates, and official interviews, portrays a conflict of devastating attrition with minimal territorial gains. Despite controlling battlefield initiative throughout 2024, Russian forces have advanced at an exceptionally sluggish pace of 15-70 meters daily in their most significant offensives—slower than nearly any major military campaign in the past century.
Concurrent with the report’s release, fresh attacks demonstrated the war’s ongoing brutality. Ukrainian officials confirmed two civilians killed in overnight strikes on Kyiv’s outskirts, while nine others were wounded in separate assaults targeting Odesa, Kryvyi Rih, and the front-line Zaporizhzhia region. Russia’s Defense Ministry reported intercepting 75 Ukrainian drones overnight, with significant activity over the Krasnodar region and annexed Crimea.
The report concludes that Russia is paying an extraordinary human cost for marginal strategic advantages, fundamentally diminishing its status as a major global power despite claims of battlefield momentum.