As the group stage of the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup draws to a close, the most gripping narrative unfolding across the tournament is not the race for top spot in each four-team pool, but the scramble to secure one of the coveted knockout round berths reserved for the best third-place finishers.
Under this World Cup’s format, group winners and runners-up earn automatic progression to the Round of 32. Co-hosts United States, Canada and Mexico have all locked in their spots in the knockout stage, joining global powerhouses including France, Germany, Brazil and Norway, among other qualified sides. Several high-profile knockout matchups are already finalized: the U.S. will take on Bosnia-Herzegovina on July 1 in Santa Clara, California, while Canada travels to Los Angeles to face South Africa on June 28. Other marquee fixtures on the already-set schedule include Netherlands against Morocco and Japan clashing with five-time world champion Brazil.
Unlike automatic qualification for top two sides, a third-place finish does not guarantee a knockout spot. Only the eight highest-ranked third-place teams across all groups advance, with tiebreakers decided by total goals scored and overall goal differential when teams finish level on points. This uncertain waiting game has left multiple sides in limbo, including South Korea, whose star forward Son Heung-min opened up about the frustration of watching his team’s fate hang in the balance.
“I personally didn’t want to end up in this kind of situation, where we have to wait and see if we will reach the knockouts,” Son said. “It’s disappointing that we didn’t get the outcome we deserved, considering the amount of hard work we’ve done, but it’s out of our hands now and we will have to accept our fate, whatever it will be.”
Across the standings, teams that have accumulated four points from one win, one draw and one loss have almost always punched their ticket to the Round of 32. Bosnia-Herzegovina, Sweden and Ecuador have already advanced through this pathway, with Paraguay on track to join them, leaving just four remaining third-place berths up for grabs among eight other third-place contenders.
As final group stage matches kick off Friday, multiple fixtures will directly shape which sides claim those last spots. In Group G, Egypt takes on Iran: Egypt is nearly guaranteed a third-place qualification even with a loss, so long as the defeat is not by a wide goal margin. Iran would secure its own third-place spot with just a draw, while Belgium and New Zealand hold only mathematical outside chances to finish third in the group.
In Group H, Cape Verde faces Saudi Arabia, with both sides needing a win to advance; a victory would lift Cape Verde into the knockout stage as either a first or second-place finisher, while Saudi Arabia requires all three points to keep its tournament alive. Later in the group, Uruguay meets Spain: a draw would be enough for Uruguay to claim a third-place spot, but a loss eliminates the side entirely.
Group G’s final fixture between winless Senegal and Iraq also carries high stakes for third-place qualification: a draw would see both teams eliminated immediately. A win for either side would give it three points and a narrow shot at advancing, with its fate dependent on goal differential, while the loser would exit the tournament. Scotland’s slim qualification hopes rely entirely on an Iraqi win or a draw in this matchup.
Looking ahead to the already confirmed Round of 32 fixtures, the U.S. enters its matchup against Bosnia-Herzegovina after seeing its two-game winning momentum halted by a loss to Turkey. Star American winger Christian Pulisic made his return to the pitch against Turkey as a second-half substitute, after missing over a week of action with a calf injury sustained in the opening win over Paraguay. Bosnia-Herzegovina, which claimed third place in Group B with four points, enters the matchup as the lowest-ranked European qualifier at 62nd in the FIFA rankings. U.S. midfielder Sebastian Berhalter, who scored against Turkey, emphasized the team’s knockout-ready intensity.
“We play every game like a knockout game,” Berhalter said. “You saw that in our intensity and the way we worked. For us, it’s keep doing what we’ve been doing.”
For Canada and South Africa, their Round of 32 clash already marks a historic milestone: it is the first time both nations have reached the World Cup knockout stage. Canada advanced as Group B runner-up with four points from one win, one draw and one loss, while South Africa claimed second place in Group A with the same points total, highlighted by a shocking upset win over South Korea.
Japan earned its spot as Group F runner-up after a hard-fought 1-1 draw with Sweden, setting up a dream matchup against five-time champion Brazil. The fixture carries special symbolic weight for Japanese soccer: in 1991, Brazilian legend Zico joined Japan’s newly formed professional league to help professionalize the domestic game and support Japan’s successful bid to co-host the 2002 World Cup. The matchup against Brazil will be a chance for Japan to showcase how far its program has come since that era.
The Netherlands top Group F after a draw with Japan and a dominant 8-2 combined goal difference against Sweden and Tunisia, and will face Morocco, which finished unbeaten in Group C to take second place. Morocco, which reached the World Cup semifinals in 2022 in Qatar, is still chasing history as it aims to become the first African nation to win the tournament.