Leading American academics are projecting a period of intensified political strife and social division throughout 2026, driven by midterm elections, persistent economic pressures, and deepening institutional fractures. This assessment emerges from expert analyses conducted separately with China Daily, indicating continued turbulence following a volatile 2025.
Anthony Moretti, Associate Professor at Robert Morris University, anticipates the upcoming electoral cycle will dominate the national conversation. “The overwhelming focus throughout 2026 will revolve around polling data, partisan advantages, and electoral trajectories,” Moretti stated. He further suggested that potential setbacks for former President Donald Trump’s party could trigger intensified rhetoric targeting immigrants and political opponents.
The pervasive polarization extends beyond mere electoral politics. Sourabh Gupta, senior fellow at the Institute for China-America Studies, characterizes the coming months as particularly combative. “I envision significant polarization persisting for the foreseeable future,” Gupta noted. “Both major parties will likely maintain confrontational stances until after November’s elections, creating a particularly challenging political climate.”
Economic concerns remain paramount among voter priorities, with affordability and cost of living issues continuing to dominate public anxiety. Gupta expressed skepticism toward economic promises from political leadership, doubting whether proposed policies would translate into tangible job creation or wage improvement. He additionally projected persistent inflationary pressures, potentially worsening throughout the year.
The analysis further identifies structural vulnerabilities within American governance. Jack Midgley of Georgetown University’s Security Studies Program highlighted how mega-donors tied to specific issues or business interests increasingly impede legislative compromise. “This influence causes lawmakers to adamantly advocate for narrow positions, reducing their willingness to negotiate—even with members of their own party,” Midgley explained.
This dynamic ultimately weakens constitutional checks and balances. Midgley referenced George Washington’s warnings about powerful political parties potentially subverting the people’s will, noting concerning shifts in governmental power distribution. “We currently observe expanding presidential authority alongside diminishing roles for both Congress and the judiciary,” he stated.
Internationally, recent US military intervention in Venezuela exemplifies this trend toward executive assertiveness and departure from rules-based order. According to Midgley, this action has destabilized Venezuela, created regional uncertainty, and undermined established international norms by legitimizing spheres of influence and governmental overthrow.
Collectively, these experts foresee no rapid resolution to current tensions. The profound damage inflicted upon governmental institutions and international relationships will require years to address—assuming the political will eventually emerges to do so.